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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6816.52
6816.52
6816.52
6861.30
6801.50
-10.89
-0.16%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48416.55
48416.55
48416.55
48679.14
48283.27
-41.49
-0.09%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23057.40
23057.40
23057.40
23345.56
23012.00
-137.76
-0.59%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.890
97.970
97.890
98.070
97.740
-0.060
-0.06%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17531
1.17539
1.17531
1.17556
1.17457
0.00000
0.00%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33777
1.33787
1.33777
1.33799
1.33543
+0.00014
+ 0.01%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4306.35
4306.79
4306.35
4309.51
4305.14
+1.23
+ 0.03%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
56.469
56.511
56.469
56.503
56.393
+0.064
+ 0.11%
--

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Mexico's Pemex Says By 2026, This Investment Will Be Complemented By Private Sector Participation Through Existing Contractual Arrangements And New Joint Investment Contracts Currently Being Awarded

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Mexico's Pemex Says 2026 Budget For Physical Investment Will Be Complemented By Resources From The Investment Financing Program Of Approximately 60 Billion Pesos In The First Quarter

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Mexico's Pemex Says For 2026, And In Accordance With The Approved Budget, There Will Be A 17.7% Increase In Pemex's Physical Investment Compared To 2025

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Mexico's Pemex Says Maintaining The Execution Of Its Physical Investment As Planned In The Budget Approved For The Current Fiscal Year

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Mexico's Pemex Says Oil And Gas Production To Remain At 1.8 Million Barrels/Day In Accordance With 2025-2035 Strategic Plan

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Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index Up 0.4% At 8670.10 Points In Early Trade

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Security Guarantees Are Not At Framework Stage: It Is Detailed Document And Still Needs Work

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Energy Ceasefire Is Option

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Ukraine, USA Support Merz's Idea Of Christmas Ceasefire

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Ukraine Will Ask USA For More Weapons If Russia Rejects Peace Plan

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Ukraine Is Counting On Alternative Funding If Reparation Loan Scheme Fails

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: If Hostilities Stop Money To Be Used For Restoration

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Ukraine Is Counting On 45 Billion Euro For Defence Support Per Year If War Continues

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Deterrence Package For Ukraine's Defence Was Discussed During Talks

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: Ukraine Will Not Recognize Donbas As Russian Either De Jure Or De Facto

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: There Will Be No 'Free Economic Zone' In Donbas Under Russian Control

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: He Hopes To Meet Trump When Finalized Framework For Peace Is Ready

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: We Are Really Close To 'Strong Security' Guarantees

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SPDR Gold Trust Reports Holdings Down 0.14%, Or 1.43 Tonnes, To 1051.68 Tonnes By Dec 15

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Ukraine President Zelenskiy: There Is Agreement That Security Guarantees Should Be Put To Vote In Congress

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          Average Mortgage For Uk First-Time Buyer Hits Record High Of £210,800

          Justin

          Political

          Economic

          Summary:

          First-time buyers are taking out larger mortgages than ever before as rising wages and looser affordability tests allow them to buy properties that were previously beyond their budget.

          First-time buyers are taking out larger mortgages than ever before as rising wages and looser affordability tests allow them to buy properties that were previously beyond their budget.

          The average first-time buyer borrowed £210,800 in the year to September, a record high, according to analysis by Savills, the property agent.

          First-time buyers accounted for 20% of all spending in the UK housing market in the 12-month period, which is the highest level since at least 2007, it added.

          This effect is even more pronounced in places such as London, with separate research from the estate agent Hamptons revealing that first-time buyers made more than half of all purchases in the capital this year.

          In total, Savills said mortgage lenders loaned a record £82.8bn to 390,000 first-time buyers in the period, a 30% increase on the previous year.

          The larger mortgages come as some first-time buyers skip the traditional first rung of the property ladder and buy a house rather than a flat. The average age of a first-time buyer is 34, according to the Mortgage Advice Bureau, while 31% have children by the time they get on the property ladder.

          Many first-time buyers also took advantage of the stamp duty holiday, which let them pay no tax on the first £425,000 of a property's value, to buy a larger home. This limit dropped back down to £300,000 in April. They also benefited from a "buyer's market", with prices falling in some parts of the country.

          Lucian Cook, the head of residential research at Savills, said a significant driving force behind the record borrowing had also been the "slightly more relaxed approach" of lenders.

          "Home ownership is more accessible now than at any point in the last three years, thanks to lower borrowing costs, lower real house prices, and more accessible mortgage debt," he said.

          Mortgage lenders typically do not lend more than 4.5 times a borrower's income and also consider whether someone could still afford repayments if interest rates soared, in a check known as "stress tests".

          However, in March the Financial Conduct Authority said that the way some lenders were conducting their stress testing "may be unduly restricting access to otherwise affordable mortgages". It reminded lenders that companies have "flexibility to design their test in a way that is appropriate" for their customers.

          Since then, most lenders have reduced the interest rate at which they stress test borrowers, with most first-time buyers now able to increase their borrowing by £20,000-£40,000.

          The relaxation of lending rules comes at a time when mortgage rates are easing , with an average two-year fix now at 4.91% and a five-year fix at 4.86%, according to Moneyfacts, a financial services provider. These are the lowest rates since before Liz Truss's disastrous mini-budget in September 2022.

          A separate analysis found that house hunters could typically snap up a property for about £2,000 less than a year ago and about £6,700 less than the average only a month ago, according to Rightmove.

          Across Britain, 2025 is ending with average asking prices at 0.6% (£2,059) less than late 2024. At £358,138, the average asking price in December is also 1.8%, or £6,695, lower than in November, according to the website.

          Annual growth in asking prices has been strongest in the north-west of England (2.6%), flat in London (0%) and most negative in the south-west and south-east (both at minus 2.7%). Rightmove said prices usually fall in December but this year's decrease is bigger than usual.

          However, a bigger than usual "Boxing Day bounce" is also expected by the website, as people who put their home moving plans on hold because of budget uncertainty start looking again after Christmas.

          Source: GUARDIAN

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
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          BOE Expected to Cut as ECB Settles Into Its Good Place; U.S. Data in Focus

          Adam

          Economic

          Central Bank

          BOE Expected to Cut as ECB Settles Into Its Good Place; U.S. Data in Focus By Vicky Ge Huang
          Good morning. Closely watched this week will be delayed U.S. data on jobs and inflation, as well as central bank decisions at the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
          The U.S. likely lost jobs in October due to tens of thousands of workers coming off federal payrolls, but job growth in November should turn positive but remain subdued, according to economists.
          Top News BOE Expected to Cut as ECB Settles Into Its Good Place
          Five of Europe's central banks will announce policy decisions Thursday, but investors expect only one of them to mirror the Federal Reserve
          by lowering borrowing costs: the Bank of England.
          The European Central Bank hasn't changed its key rate since June, and believes itself to be in a "good place," with the eurozone economy having avoided a tariff-induced recession and inflation close to its target.
          But the BOE is not in a good place. As in the U.S., changes in government policy contributed to a pickup in inflation that was absent in the rest of Europe. Some on the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee remain cautious, and worry that the unexpected revival of inflation so soon after the 2022 surge will raise expectations of future price rises and wage demands.
          Fed Officials Spar Over Whether Rate Cuts Risk Credibility on Inflation
          Federal Reserve officials reinforced Friday why this week's rate cut was so contentious , with one arguing the central bank's credibility on inflation gives it room to keep easing if the labor market softens and another warning cuts could squander decades of hard-won gains in anchoring price expectations at a low level.
          The central bank voted 9-3 on Wednesday to cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point, to a range between 3.5% and 3.75%. Two favored no cut and one preferred a larger reduction. It was the first time since 2019 when three policymakers formally dissented.
          BOJ Report Signaling Wage Growth Adds More Rate-Hike Fuel
          Japanese companies seem keen to raise wages again next year, despite many bracing for a tariff hit to profits, a central bank report
          shows days ahead of its next policy meeting.
          The findings, which come alongside a separate Bank of Japan survey on Monday showing improved business sentiment, will likely reinforce expectations that the central bank will raise interest rates to 0.75% from 0.5% this week.
          The Fed's New Rate-Setting Officials for 2026: Three Hawks and a Dove
          Four of the 12 voting members of the Fed's policy committee will change in January, due to the annual rotation of voting seats among the regional reserve-bank presidents. Three of the four incomers have made hawkish comments in recent months, flagging concerns about cutting rates too much and finding inflation a bigger problem ahead. Here's what to know about the incomers .
          Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Data, Rate Decisions in Japan, Eurozone, U.K. in Focus
          Key delayed U.S. data on jobs and inflation
          will be closely watched as investors gauge how much further the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates.
          Also in focus will be central bank decisions from the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. An interest-rate increase is expected in Japan, a rate cut in the U.K., while the eurozone's central bank could signal that rates are unlikely to fall any further.
          China's Economy Is Deteriorating on Several Fronts
          China's economic momentum slowed broadly in November , with a marked weakening in consumer spending, adding pressure on Beijing to stabilize household and business demand in the world's second-largest economy.
          U.S. Economy Why Everyone Got Trump's Tariffs Wrong
          In the days following "Liberation Day," the contrast between Trump's optimism and more dire predictions from trade experts and economists was stark.
          As businesses and consumers tried to make sense of the mixed messages, the president doubled down on promises he'd made during his 2024 presidential campaign. "The markets are going to boom, the stock [market] is going to boom, the country is going to boom," he said on April 3.
          Economists and business leaders dialed up predictions of a fallout. BlackRock's Larry Fink said "most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now." JPMorgan Chase said a global recession was even likely.
          An economic collapse hasn't materialized . Neither has an economic revival.
          What to Expect From the Double Jobs Report on Tuesday
          For months, a crucial question has been hanging over the economy: What is really going on in the labor market?
          On Tuesday, the country will finally start to get some answers .
          The Labor Department, after pausing its data collection for weeks during the government shutdown, will publish a report with not one but two months' worth of data on the health of the U.S. job market.
          The U.S. likely lost jobs in October due to tens of thousands of workers coming off federal payrolls, the result of a deferred-resignation program launched earlier in the year. Economists say that as that effect wears off, however, job growth in November should turn positive but remain subdued.
          The Fed Did Banks a Solid This Week. More Favors May Be Needed
          For banks and other players in the U.S. financial system, the Federal Reserve's next moves on the size of its balance sheet could matter as much or more
          than its decisions on rates, WSJ's Telis Demos writes in a Heard on the Street.
          Following the Fed's quarter-point rate-cut decision this past week, banks were among the market's strongest performers. The KBW Nasdaq Bank index was up over 3% for the week, while the S&P 500 was down.
          Banks undoubtedly benefit from what is being viewed as the Fed's "dovish" attitude toward its next rate move, with attention being paid to the strength of the labor market. When consumers are working, they are spending, saving and paying back their loans. All are critical for lenders, of course. A steeper yield curve, with falling short-term rates and steady-to-rising longer-term bond yields, also helps banks.
          But bank stocks' sharp outperformance was also helped by something else the Fed did on Wednesday: Its somewhat quieter decision to start expanding its balance sheet by buying $40 billion of short-term Treasury securities this month. That can be helpful to banks, by adding to the available pool of deposits for lenders as the Fed buys Treasurys from the market.
          Financial Regulation Trump Administration Approves First Round of Crypto-Focused Banks
          The Trump administration on Friday blessed plans
          to launch five new cryptocurrency-focused national banks, part of its push to give the industry broader access to the traditional financial system.
          Circle and Ripple were among the crypto upstarts that received approval on applications filed with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC, part of the Treasury Department, regulates national banks.
          JPMorgan Steps Further Into Crypto With Tokenized Money Fund
          JPMorgan Chase is joining the list of traditional financial firms seeking to bring blockchain technology to an investing staple : the money-market fund.
          The banking giant's $4 trillion asset-management arm is rolling out its first tokenized money-market fund on the Ethereum blockchain. JPMorgan will seed the fund with $100 million of its own capital, and then open it to outside investors on Tuesday.
          Forward Guidance Monday (all times ET)
          10 a.m.: NAHB Housing Market Index
          10:30 a.m.: FRB New York President John Williams speaks at New Jersey Bankers Association discussion on economic growth
          6 p.m.: G20 Sherpas, Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meetings
          Tuesday
          8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report
          8:30 a.m.: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
          9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
          9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
          10 a.m.: Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
          11 a.m.: ISM Semiannual Supply Chain Planning Forecast
          Research U.S. Jobs Data, ECB And BOJ Decisions Could Drive Dollar Lower
          The dollar could test new lows if interest-rate differentials move against the currency after upcoming U.S. jobs data and decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this week, Morgan Stanley strategists say in a note. A potentially weak nonfarm payrolls report on Tuesday could amplify expectations for at least another Federal Reserve rate cut in the first quarter, they say. The ECB might leave the door open to a rate rise Thursday while the BOJ could raise rates and signal further rate increases on Friday. Overall, a convergence in rates between the U.S. and the rest of the world will "continue to play a key role in driving dollar lower." - Renae Dyer
          LME Copper Climbs to Record High on U.S. Rate Cuts, Supply Worries
          Copper prices shoot to a new record, boosted by the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cut and hopes for further easing next year. Prices have risen nearly 35% this year. "The combination of lower interest rates and stronger economic growth should boost copper demand," ANZ analysts say. The rally is also driven by persistent concerns over a supply squeeze due to heavy stockpiling in the U.S. and a series of mine disruptions this year. "The rally has unfolded despite continued economic softness in China, underlining that the current copper story is increasingly driven by supply constraints and demand tied to energy transition and AI-related infrastructure," Saxo analysts say. - Giulia Petroni

          Source: morningstar

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Wall St indexes edge up as investors position for busy week of data

          Adam

          Stocks

          Wall Street's main indexes inched higher in choppy trading on Monday, with some heavyweight tech stocks rebounding from last week's rout, while investors braced for a barrage of economic data that could set the course for interest rates.
          Traders also got more clarity on candidates for the post of Federal Reserve chair next year as U.S. President Donald Trump, according to a report, said he narrowed his search to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
          Expectations for a dovish Fed chair have fueled hopes for interest rate cuts next year, even as inflation remains above the 2% target and persistent price pressures in other developed markets strengthen calls for a rate hike.
          At 09:35 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 108.61 points, or 0.20%, to 48,557.21. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 22.44 points, or 0.33%, to 6,849.85, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) advanced 91.15 points, or 0.39%, to 23,286.32.
          Of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, 10 were trading higher, with consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) up 1%, boosted by a 4.5% jump in Tesla (TSLA.O).
          AI chip giant Nvidia (NVDA.O), rose 1.1% and is set to snap a four-day losing streak, if gains hold. A broader index of chip stocks (.SOX) climbed 1.2%.
          The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had logged their steepest daily declines in more than three weeks on Friday, as worries of sticky inflation and debt-fueled AI investments pulled the indexes further away from record highs.
          These concerns have weighed on U.S. equities several times over the past three months, helping Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX) outperform the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 on a quarterly basis.
          PLETHORA OF DATA THIS WEEK
          The nonfarm payrolls figures for October and November are due on Tuesday. The October data was delayed by the government shutdown earlier this quarter.
          Reports on business activity, weekly jobless claims and inflation, due later this week, will also be monitored as investors seek fresh clues on the economy's resilience and the Fed's next policy moves. Rate calls from Europe, the UK and Japan will add to a crowded central-bank calendar.
          "With the Fed still appearing to be more focused on labor-market weakness than inflation, we're likely facing a 'bad news is good' scenario for the jobs report," said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
          A string of Fed officials are due to make remarks throughout the week, starting with Fed Governor Stephen Miran. The permanent voting member, as seen as on the dovish side, argued that current inflation does not reflect true supply-demand dynamics.
          Among other stocks, ServiceNow (NOW.N) slid 7.9% after a report said the cybersecurity company is in advanced talks to buy startup Armis.
          IRobot (IRBT.O) slumped 68.5% after the Roomba vacuum-cleaner maker filed for bankruptcy protection.
          Investors also monitored developments around plans to end Russia's war in Ukraine.
          Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.59-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.57-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.
          The S&P 500 posted 18 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 65 new highs and 42 new lows.
          Reporting by Johann M Cherian, Pranav Kashyap and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Shilpi Majumdar

          Source: reuters

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          Fed's Miran Says ‘Underlying’ Inflation Close To Target

          Daniel Carter

          Economic

          Central Bank

          Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran again argued the central bank's policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive on the economy, pointing to his benign outlook for inflation and warning signs in the labor market.
          Miran said he expects shelter inflation to ease as rent increases normalize from spikes during the Covid-19 pandemic. He argued that services inflation — excluding housing, food and energy — isn't likely to see upward pressures because of a cooling labor market. He said some drivers of services inflation, such as portfolio management fees, reflect statistical quirks rather than actual consumer experience of prices.
          "There was a large bout of inflation that resulted in an increase in prices after the pandemic," Miran said at an event Monday at Columbia University in New York. "While American families are still rightly distraught with that experience and unhappy with affordability, prices are now once again stable, albeit at higher levels. Policy should reflect that."
          Fed officials cut interest rates for a third consecutive time at their meeting last week, but signaled additional reductions aren't guaranteed. A number of policymakers are concerned about inflation that has lingered above the Fed's 2% goal, while others have focused more attention on the labor market's slowdown.
          Miran — who was recently appointed to the Fed by President Donald Trump — acknowledged sticky goods inflation, but argued it isn't coming from the administration's tariff policies. He said he expects disinflation in housing services will counter elevated price increases for goods.
          Turning to the labor market, Miran said keeping the Fed's policy rate unnecessarily high will lead to job losses.
          "Experience suggests that labor market deterioration can occur quickly and nonlinearly and be difficult to reverse," he said. "In part because monetary policy lags several quarters, a quicker pace of easing policy — as I have advocated — would appropriately move us closer to a neutral stance."

          Source: Bloomberg Europe

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          ECB Criticises Italy Over Budget Measures Affecting Banks

          Justin

          Central Bank

          Measures envisaged in Italy's 2026 budget could have "negative implications" on banks' liquidity because they might prompt lenders to cut interest paid on deposits to lower taxes, reducing liquidity buffers, the European Central Bank said.

          In an opinion dated December 12 but published on Monday, the ECB also said higher taxes could persuade domestic banks to cut the already modest credit to families and firms while affecting investors' confidence in Italy.

          Measures in the budget affecting banks and insurers, which also include curbs on the way lenders use interest expenses to lower their tax bills, are worth more than 11 billion euros ($12.93 billion) through 2028, according to Treasury estimates.

          "The recurring introduction of ad hoc tax provisions unduly increases policy uncertainty regarding the tax framework, damaging investor confidence and potentially also affecting credit institutions' funding costs," the ECB said.

          It is unlikely that Italy will radically revise its budget plans following the ECB criticism, given that the contribution from the financial sector funds more than 20% of the tax cuts and spending hikes that benefit households and businesses in the 2026-2028 period.

          Both houses of Italy's parliament are due to approve the budget before the end of the year.

          Among several measures, the government will oblige banks to spread over a longer period of time provisions on some loan losses which get deducted from income, while hiking by two percentage points the IRAP corporate tax weighing on domestic lenders and insurers.

          "This might incentivise credit institutions to postpone or lower the amount of write-offs recognised on stage 1 and stage 2 loans in years affected by the change in taxation as they become more costly compared to the current situation," the ECB said.

          Italian banks faced widespread criticism from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's right-wing coalition for failing to reward depositors or offer better lending conditions for firms, despite record profits driven by high interest rates and state guarantee schemes adopted in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

          The ECB, however, warned Italy that an increased tax burden on banks could lead to "abrupt adjustments" in their lending to the real economy, especially given the already moderate levels of bank lending in Italy.

          "The elements of pro-cyclicality entailed in the draft law increase this risk of adverse lending adjustment," the opinion added.

          ($1 = 0.8507 euros)

          Source: TradingView

          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
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          China’s Broad-based Slowdown Bolsters Case For Additional Stimulus

          ING

          Political

          Economic

          Retail sales growth falls to lowest since 2022 as trade-in policy turns from tailwind to headwind

          China's retail sales significantly underperformed in November, falling to 1.3% year-on-year from 2.9% in October. This not only fell well short of forecasts but also marked the weakest month of retail sales growth since 2022.

          As we have covered in the past few months, the leading cause is the trade-in policy turning from a tailwind to a headwind. The most obvious example is in household appliances, which saw a -19.4% YoY contraction in November, bringing the year-to-date growth down sharply to 14.9%. Recall that the trade-in policy for household appliances ramped up significantly in the fourth quarter of 2024. This resulted in a wave of purchases, something for which the YoY data is now paying the price. The same impact will likely be observed at the start of 2026 for the communication appliance category.

          While the trade-in policy has primarily been seen as successful in front-loading consumption, we need to see either an expansion of the policy to new categories next year -- or a new direction in supporting consumption. Otherwise, we will likely continue to see pressure on consumption as the policy is phased out.

          China's electric vehicle (EV) transition is influencing soft retail sales data. Reduced petrol demand resulted in a contraction of -8.0% YoY for petrol sales, while the earlier purchases of EVs resulted in a -8.3% YoY drop in auto sales as well. Other categories tended to fare a little better, with catering (3.2%), grains and oils (6.1%), cosmetics (6.1%), and gold and jewellery (8.5%) all outperforming headline growth.

          Boosting domestic demand in 2026 looks to be a top priority for policymakers, according to recent communications from the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. One point that has been mentioned several times: "special actions to boost consumption" will be implemented, along with plans to boost household incomes.

          Trade-in policy headwinds will likely intensify in coming months

          Investment contraction steepened in November

          China's fixed asset investment (FAI) growth fell to -2.6% YoY ytd through November, down from -1.7% YoY ytd from a month ago. This once again underperformed market forecasts for -2.3%, though it slightly beat our house forecast of -2.8%.

          Despite industrial modernisation being at the core of the next Five-Year Plan, the manufacturing FAI continues to slow down to just 1.9% YoY ytd. The rail, ship, and aeroplane manufacturing sector continued to see investment growth accelerate to 22.4% YoY ytd, but auto sector investment moderated to 15.3% YoY ytd.

          As we expected in last month's report, public investment tipped into negative territory by November, dropping to -1.1% YoY ytd. Private investment also continued to fall at a faster pace, down to -2.6% YoY ytd.

          The recent Central Economic Work Conference stated that investment should be halted from next year. How the government plans to do this, while also cracking down on redundant investments, will be worth monitoring in the coming months. We expect public investment to stage a recovery in 2026, but the private sector is a bigger question mark for China's investment picture. It will likely be seen as a more important gauge of investment appetite and business confidence.

          Next year's government investment could recover amid policy support

          Stable industrial production continues to outperform

          China's value added of industry inched down to 4.8% YoY in November, down from 4.9% in October. This outcome was weaker than market forecasts, but the industrial sector remains a clear outperformer despite soft consumption and investment data.

          By sector, we saw outperformance in the usual suspects, with rail, ships, and aerospace, as well as the auto manufacturing sectors, both outperforming at 11.9% YoY in November. We also saw solid production growth of industrial robots (20.6%) and semiconductors (15.6%).

          As we saw in the November trade data earlier this month -- China's trade surplus eclipsed USD 1tn on the year -- external demand has been the main bright spot for China's economy this year. This has helped support industrial production for most of the year. Resilient demand from non-US economies has been a key reason China's growth is likely to remain on track this year, but there are signs that this trend faces risks next year. We recently saw Mexico increase tariffs on Chinese products to up to 50% in an attempt to appease the US. The EU has also signalled potential tariff action if trade imbalances were not addressed in short order.

          Property price slide continued in November

          China's 70-city property prices continued to show downward momentum in November, consistent with expectations following another month of limited support. New home prices fell -0.39% month-on-month, a slightly smaller decline compared to October's data. Used-home prices fell by -0.66% MoM, unchanged from October. From the peak, new home prices are now down -12.1%, while used home prices are down -20.8%. Of the 70 cities, 46 have seen secondary-market prices decline by 20%-30% from their peak, while 4 have declined by more than 30%.

          In the primary market, 11 of 70 cities saw prices stabilise or increase, which marked a three-month high. In the secondary market, we saw a third consecutive month of price declines across the entire sample. Secondary market prices remain the key to watch; they have the most direct impact on household wealth effects.

          As expected, the downturn of property investment continued, now down -15.9% YoY ytd.

          The continued slide in the property market remains one of the most significant issues that could hinder China's efforts to shift to a domestically demand-driven growth model. Comments from the Central Economic Work Conference on actively and prudently resolving key risks focused on the property market, and suggest that property market support could be on the way. The directions in the readout included encouraging the acquisition of existing housing, focusing on affordable housing, and city-specific policies to reduce inventories and optimise supply. Market discussions have also centred on measures to improve housing affordability, such as tax breaks for first-time buyers and potential reduction of mortgage burdens. The wave of support in 2024 showed some promise, with prices stabilising toward the start of 2025. However, this may require continued and concerted efforts, as the downturn resumed after a few months of policy inertia. There remains no easy answer for ending the downturn.

          No relief yet for housing prices

          There's much work to be done if domestic demand is to drive growth in 2026 and beyond

          Policymakers make clear that domestic demand-led growth is the priority moving forward. November's data showd that a lot of work remains for this scenario to play out successfully, with all key domestic activity data continuing to weaken. This year's growth targets should still be on track, though a weak set of November data further pushes risks to the downside from our 5.0% YoY forecast.

          A bigger question mark lies ahead for next year, and the years ahead. In our view, the biggest issue suppressing China's economy is downbeat confidence, which risks becoming entrenched. While official confidence indicators have been inching higher over the past year, they remain well below historical averages.

          We believe the negative wealth effect from falling property prices remains a major drag on confidence. Falling property prices have thus far overshadowed a solid equity market recovery, which is unsurprising given the greater weight of property prices in household balance sheets.

          The other key area is the widespread cost-cutting environment, which has led to sluggish wage growth and layoffs. This decreased labour market dynamism is also resulting in less hiring and labour mobility. This increases challenges for youth unemployment as well, where the unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 reached 17.3% in October. It has generally been in the mid-high teens since the pandemic, versus an average of around 11% between 2018-19. A generation of underemployed and unemployed youth will likely constrain their purchasing power in the future.

          These factors translate to an overall deflationary environment, which also acts as a key drag on both consumption and investment. We see some improvement in inflation next year, though food prices will likely drive the recovery. The trajectory of core inflation, which has also shown some positive signs in recent months, will likely be more important.

          It's certainly easier said than done to restore confidence, but it will be key to domestic demand becoming the main driver of growth. To unlock China's savings and transition China's economy into the next phase of domestic demand-led growth, households need to feel confident that tomorrow will be better than today.

          Confidence has edged up slowly and painfully but remains still much closer to historical lows than averages

          Source: ING

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Strike By Doctors in England to Go Ahead After Rejecting Government's Offer

          Michelle

          Political

          Economic

          Doctors in England voted to reject the government's latest offer on working conditions, the British Medical Association union said on Monday, confirming that a five-day strike planned for this week would go ahead.

          The doctors' union - which represents the so-called resident doctors who make up nearly half of the medical workforce - will stage a walkout from Wednesday as part of a series of strikes that have taken place this year over pay and working conditions.

          "Tens of thousands of frontline doctors have come together to say 'no' to what is clearly too little, too late," BMA chair Jack Fletcher said in a statement.

          He said the union was still willing to work to find a solution.

          The strike will add pressure to an already stretched healthcare service after NHS England warned last week that hospitals were facing a "worst-case scenario" from a wave of a super flu.

          Health minister Wes Streeting appealed to the doctors to go to work.

          "There is no need for these strikes to go ahead this week, and it reveals the BMA's shocking disregard for patient safety," he said, adding that the strikes are "self-indulgent, irresponsible and dangerous".

          The BMA said 83% of resident doctors rejected the government's offer in an online survey with a 65% turnout of its more than 50,000 members.

          The offer made by the government last Wednesday did not include new pay terms, something the BMA has been campaigning for even before the Labour Party won last year's election.

          At the time, Streeting struck a deal with the doctors, offering them a 22% pay rise - 7 percentage points below the 29% sought by the BMA.

          The union has also been pushing for a better pay offer from the 5.4% pay increase announced earlier this year, saying resident doctors were still suffering from years of pay erosion.

          Source: Reuters

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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