A Hawkish Final Fed Rate Cut, Or A Signal of More to Come?

Forex

Economic

Summary:

For the fourth straight meeting, the Federal Reserve's policymaking panel is expected to have a divided vote on borrowing costs Wednesday, showcasing the challenge that outgoing Chair Jerome Powell will have in offering some sort of outlook for where the US central bank is heading in 2026.

While a 25 basis-point rate cut is widely expected by economists and investors, Fed watchers see the potential for two votes against the move — a reflection of broader concerns among non-voting Fed reserve bank presidents about still-too-high inflation. Trump's chief economist, Stephen Miran (temporarily on leave from his post while he's at the Fed board) is expected to dissent in favor of a bigger 50 basis-point cut.

After Wednesday's anticipated reduction, the benchmark will be down to a 3.5% to 3.75% range, some 1.75 percentage points lower than the 2023-24 peak. The key question will be, after three reductions this year on top of a similar triple sequence last year, is that it for the cycle? Bond traders round the world already are starting to raise that question (see below.)

The Fed's preferred core inflation gauge was at 2.8% in the latest reading, still well above the 2% target. And while official up-to-date jobs data won't be out until next week, some recent signs — such as jobless claims and job openings — suggest employment isn't collapsing.

"It leaves the Fed in this position of having to walk a fine line," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. "My sense is that they're going to pause as they await more data now, because they have put some rate cuts into the system already."

With policymakers submitting updated economic projections this time around, attention at 2 p.m. in Washington will quickly shift to the year-end 2026 median forecast for the policy benchmark. Back in September, eight officials favored ending next year where the rate's expected to be Wednesday. Two had one more trim for 2026, while nine saw two or more moves.

The fewer the projections for further rate cuts, the harder the challenge will be for Powell's successor to marshal a majority around the further easing that Trump has called for.

One more area to keep an eye on: with signs of strain in key US money markets, the bond market will be on watch whether the Fed unveils plans to rebuild liquidity buffers.

As a group, central banks appear to have begun a transition point from easing toward tightening, and it all risks playing out "faster than we expected," Stephen Spratt at Societe Generale wrote in a note Tuesday.

While any given monetary policy panel has its own domestic considerations, history shows that, broadly, "policy directions tend to trend together," given the common factors central bankers face, Spratt noted. And taking a look at a rolling tracker of decisions over the past 12 months, the peak for rate cuts was already reached four months back, SocGen analysis shows.

Stripping out rate expectations from the short-term portion of the bond market, there's a clear upward shift since late October, Spratt wrote. Moves began in the Asia-Pacific, with Australia and New Zealand among the places expectations shifted quickest. Canada joined in bigtime on Friday, when a surprisingly strong jobs gain prompted markets to price in a rate hike by the end of 2026, Spratt wrote.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Commodity

Oil held the biggest two-day drop in a month as concerns about global oversupply continued to weigh on sentiment.

Brent crude traded around $62 a barrel after losing 3% over the previous two sessions, while West Texas Intermediate was above $58. The US said domestic crude production would hit a record 13.6 million barrels a day this year, adding to a flood of supply hitting the global market, while several of India’s largest refiners are buying Russian oil, easing the worst fears of a supply threat.

“I’m surprised we have not seen any attempts to force Brent properly below $62,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank AS. “I’m increasingly becoming a bit of a contrarian here, given the limited selling response to all the negative news.” The biggest risk to prices could be to the upside if next year’s oversupply is already priced in, he added.

Oil Steadies After Two-Day Drop With Glut Concerns to the Fore_1

The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories shrank by 4.8 million barrels last week, according to a document seen by Bloomberg. However, large gains were seen for fuel stockpiles — both gasoline and distillates such as diesel. Official data will be released on Wednesday.

Crude has been trapped in a tight $4-a-barrel range since the start of November, as oversupply concerns vie with geopolitical risks surrounding the flow of Russian barrels into nations including India. Key market reports from the International Energy Agency and OPEC are due later this week, which may provide more clarity on the outlook.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Forex

The yen was set to snap a three-day losing streak on Wednesday after being pressured by wide interest rate differentials between Japan and the rest of the world even as its central bank is widely expected to tighten policy next week.

The dollar dropped slightly ahead of a Federal Reserve decision later in the day, with investors expecting a cut after one of the most fractious policy debates in years.

The yen was up 0.12% at 156.69 per dollar, after a 0.6% fall towards the 157 level in the previous session.

Against the euro, the Japanese currency sank to a record low overnight at 182.64 and was last down 0.05% at 182.00.

"It just looks like a little bit of the whipping boy of the markets at the moment," said Alex Hill, managing director at Electus Financial, adding that a rise in long-term U.S. yields and fiscal and growth concerns in Japan have weighed on the currency.

"We're looking at maybe yen weakness into the new year. And I think that kiwi/yen, Aussie/yen, all of the Antipodean crosses especially look well positioned to go higher."

BANK OF JAPAN EXPECTED TO RAISE RATES

The Bank of Japan meets next week and is expected to raise interest rates. The market will also follow closely what Governor Kazuo Ueda says about the future policy path.

Expectations of more expansionary fiscal measures in Japan have complicated the outlook for BOJ policy under which rates remain among the lowest in the world, in contrast to its peers elsewhere. Australia's central bank on Tuesday said there was a risk of rate hikes if inflation pressures persist.

Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street in Tokyo, said their flows suggested positioning on dollar/yen was neutral but showed buying of euro/yen and Aussie/yen.

WAITING FOR A FED DECISION

The broader market was focused on the Fed's decision due later on Wednesday, in which a 25-basis-point rate cut is almost fully priced in, with traders focused on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says and how many cuts the dot plot will lay out for 2026.

"The Fed Board is the most divided it has been in five years, with two almost evenly split camps. Six members lean towards easing, including two with Make America Great Again affiliations, and six lean towards holding rates unchanged," said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at Carmignac,

"Should, as we and markets expect, Powell deliver a 25-basis-point cut this week to satisfy the doves, he will likely accompany it with a more restrictive message to reassure the hawks," he added.

Investors have pared expectations of rate cuts in 2026 on lingering inflation concerns and expectations of a more resilient U.S. economy.

Data on Tuesday showed U.S. job openings increased marginally in October after surging in September.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, the front-runner to be the Federal Reserve's next chair, told the WSJ CEO Council on Tuesday there was "plenty of room" to cut interest rates further, though he added that if inflation rises the calculation may change.

EURO SUPPORTED BY THE RATE OUTLOOK

The euro rose 0.23% to $1.1654 as investors focused on its gap with U.S. bond yields and saw little chance of a significant drop in euro zone rates in the near term.

Strong economic data and comments from ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel - who said a rate hike was more likely than a cut - led investors on Monday to price out a European Central Bank rate cut in 2026 and assign more than a 50% chance of a hike in March 2027.

Markets monitored developments in Ukraine, while the European Union neared a deal to fund Kyiv in 2026 and 2027 that would win backing from at least a qualified majority of member states.

In other currencies, the Australian dollar bought $0.6652, having risen to a near three-month high in the previous session on hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock.

Source: reuters

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Warren Takunda

Economic

The Federal Reserve will almost certainly reduce its key interest rate Wednesday, but the bigger question for financial markets and the economy is what signals Chair Jerome Powell may send regarding the central bank’s next steps.

It would be the third cut in a row and bring the Fed’s key rate to about 3.6%, the lowest in nearly three years. For Americans struggling with high borrowing costs for homes, cars, and other large purchases, this year’s rate cuts could reduce those costs over time — though it’s not guaranteed. Mortgage rates in particular are also influenced by financial markets.

This week’s meeting could presage a much cloudier path for the Fed in 2026. The government shutdown has delayed two months of jobs and inflation data, leaving the Fed with much less information on hiring and inflation than it is used to. Powell’s term as chair ends in May and President Donald Trump will nominate a replacement, possibly as soon as this month, who will almost certainly push for lower borrowing costs. Yet the new chair could face resistance from other Fed officials.

In addition to a likely rate cut, the Fed could signal that the bar for another reduction when they next meet in late January will be higher than it has been this fall. A year ago, after implementing a third rate cut at its December meeting, the Fed indicated it would likely keep rates unchanged in the coming months. It didn’t cut again until September.

“They would love to take a pass (in January), push it off to March, and just wait for a couple of more inflation reports to come in,” Tom Porcelli, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said.

The Fed’s 19-member rate-setting committee is deeply divided between those who support reducing rates to bolster hiring and those who’d prefer to keep rates unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Higher borrowing costs can slow spending and the economy and reduce price increases.

The government said last week in a delayed report that the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remained elevated in September, with both overall and core prices rising 2.8% from a year earlier.

The lack of economic data has contributed to the divisions. But by their January meeting, they’ll have up to three months of backlogged reports to consider. If those figures show that hiring has remained weak, or that layoffs have spiked, the Fed could reduce rates again in January.

By contrast, if they show hiring has stabilized while inflation remains elevated, they may hold off on additional cuts for several months.

On Wednesday, the Fed will also issue their quarterly set of economic projections, which include forecasts for where they will set rates at the end of this year and next. Economists expect just one rate reduction next year, as they did in September.

Yet the projections will likely carry much less weight this year, since a new chair will probably push for more reductions. And if the economy weakens, more officials will support reductions.

In an interview with Politico published Tuesday, Trump said “yes” when asked if reducing rates “immediately” was a litmus test for his new Fed chair. Trump has hinted that he will likely pick Kevin Hassett, his top economic adviser.

Hassett has often called for lower borrowing costs, but this week has been more circumspect. In an interview Tuesday on CNBC, when asked how many more rate cuts he would support, Hassett did not give a specific answer and said, “What you need to do is watch the data.”

Source: AP

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Glendon

Political

Economic

Russia is seeking to deepen trade and economic cooperation with Malaysia, particularly in the electronics and semiconductor sectors, which Moscow considers strategically important amid global supply-chain shifts.

Russian ambassador to Malaysia Naiyl Latypov said Malaysia is viewed as a key and reliable trading partner in Asean, noting that overall Russia–Asean trade stands at about US$22 billion (RM90.51 billion) annually.

He said Malaysia's position as a major global producer of microchips, electronic components and palm oil has made it an essential partner for Russian industries.

"During the pandemic, we relied heavily on Malaysian semiconductor supplies. Our automotive producers, including Russia's largest manufacturers, faced difficulties during the global chip shortages. Malaysia played a very important role in stabilising that supply," he told a media briefing on Wednesday.

While Moscow remains interested to increase imports of Malaysian semiconductors and electronic components, the ambassador acknowledged that international sanctions and compliance concerns continue to pose challenges for companies on both sides.

He stressed that Russia does not want Malaysian partners to face any risk of penalties and that all cooperation must remain "mutually beneficial and safe".

Latypov said Russia continues to import palm oil, electronic equipment and components from Malaysia, with considerable room for further expansion. He added that Russian companies are now exploring new areas of technological and industrial collaboration with Malaysia.

"We are confident that there is significant potential to expand bilateral trade, especially in high-tech industries. Malaysia has strong capabilities in semiconductors, and our companies are of course interested. But we also want to ensure that this cooperation does not create any difficulties for our Malaysian partners," he said.

Latypov said that Russia is prepared to pursue new economic initiatives with Malaysia despite external constraints, emphasising that both countries stand to benefit from diversifying trade and strengthening supply-chain resilience.

"We value Malaysia as a trusted partner in the region, and we hope that trade between our two countries will continue to grow," he added.

Bilateral trade between Malaysia and Russia remains significant and continues to grow, reaching approximately US$3.5 billion as of September 2025. Russia is currently Malaysia's ninth-largest trading partner among European nations.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Adam

Stocks

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European stocks fell Wednesday, extending Tuesday's mostly lower close, as investors on both sides of the Atlantic waited for the Federal Reserve's final rate decision for the year.

The Italian FTSE MIB saw the steepest early decline as Leonardo and Banca Mediolanum handed back some of Tuesday's gains.

The Dutch AEX edged lower as Aegon fell after outlining plans to rename and relocate its headquarters to the U.S.

The FTSE 100 rose, thanks to support from miners and the financial sector, while the CAC 40, IBEX 35 and the DAX fell.

Investors widely expect the Fed to cut rates for the third time in a row, but are increasingly uncertain about where rates will go from here. Analysts expect a cautious message from the Fed which could potentially lift Treasury yields.

Market Insight

Shares in London-listed house builders rose after Berkeley reiterated guidance for the year despite a fall in revenue and sales.

Crest Nicholson, Berkeley and Vistry were gaining.

"Of course, this is a highly cyclical sector and if nothing else, the perennial undersupply of homes in the U.K. will provide future opportunities," Interactive Investor said.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures pointed to a mostly higher open Wednesday.

A 25-basis-point Fed rate cut is priced with a 89% probability, according to LSEG, and investors are likely to pay close attention to the Fed's projections and comments by chair Jerome Powell.

The central bank's main debate is likely to be about how close it is to ending the easing cycle , First Abu Dhabi Bank said, anticipating a lack of consensus. It added that Kevin Hassett, Trump's favored candidate to head the Fed, could rally support for rate cuts but there are mounting calls for relative rate stability over the coming months.

Forex:

The euro rose against the pound and sterling needs favorable news about economic growth for it to strengthen versus the EU's single currency, Insight Investment said.

"We continue to favor Scandinavian currencies over sterling given a more robust economic outlook and prudent central bank policy."

The dollar declined against a basket of currencies as risks surrounding the Fed's policy meeting were skewed towards less hawkish commentary and a willingness to further cut rates , ADSS said.

The dollar would weaken should the Fed be more open to further rate cuts, while stocks and metals should rise, it said.

The dollar could receive a limited boost by the Fed's monetary policy, but the rally might not last in the face of pressure from weak jobs data next week and seasonal December weakness, ING said.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields rose in early trade, but increases could fade as the market shifts to the Fed's policy announcement at 1900 GMT.

"As the data calendar remains thin, Bunds should continue to stabilise in the European session, before the Fed takes centre stage in the evening," Commerzbank said.

The 10-year Bund yield is up and staying close to the highest levels since March, according to Tradeweb.

Yields on U.K. government bonds rose slightly as investors awaited the Fed's interest-rate decision. After Wednesday's Fed decision, however, focus will turn to next week's Bank of England decision , where a rate reduction is also anticipated.

Italian government bonds are a 'standout opportunity' , based on the country's political stability and improving debt-trajectory, according to Amundi. The country is "one of the few developed market sovereign issuers with clear near-term support."

At the same time, Amundi said it has reduced its exposure to U.S. bonds.

"Amundi has reduced U.S. duration exposure due to a mixed macro picture--weakening consumption, softening labour markets."

Two-year and 10-year Treasury yields edged lower, suggesting investors already positioned themselves ahead of the Fed's policy decision, according to MFS Investment Management.

"The Fed will likely try hard to sound cautious and deliver some hawkish undertones, mainly because the Fed wants to keep maximum policy flexibility," it said.

Metals:

Gold prices slipped, but continued to hold above the $4,200 mark as investors awaited the Fed's interest-rate guidance for next year. Futures in New York were down.

"A slump in U.S. government bonds over the past few days has curbed risk appetite, as traders grow cautious about the pace of monetary easing," ANZ Research said.

Silver prices continued to climb, hitting fresh record highs on as investors bet on an imminent interest-rate cut in the U.S.

"Although inventory pressures have eased as shipments boosted London vault stocks, tight conditions in the over-the-counter market and tariff-related concerns have kept prices elevated," MUFG said.

Energy:

Oil prices held broadly steady as investors tracked diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and looked to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on interest rates.

Traders now await monthly reports from OPEC and the IEA on Thursday for further clues on crude's outlook.

EMEA HEADLINES

Trump and U.S. CEOs Agree: European Red Tape Goes Too Far

BRUSSELS-President Trump doesn't have many good things to say about Europe these days. Neither do some of America's most powerful CEOs.

The new U.S. National Security Strategy, a foreign-policy declaration that shocked European leaders with its harsh language about the continent, echoed complaints from American executives about what they see as the European Union's oppressive business regulations.

America Has a New Ally in Syria and Wants Israel to Get on Board

TEL AVIV-Israel's aggressive posture toward the new government in Syria has emerged as a rare point of disagreement with Washington, where President Trump wants a quick resolution to the two countries' decades-old tensions.

After the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime a year ago, Israel carved out a 155-square-mile area inside Syria that it still holds. Since then, it has carried out arrests, seized weapons and conducted frequent airstrikes in the south of the country. Over the summer, Israel struck Syria's military headquarters in Damascus in what it said was an effort to defend the Druze minority, which has strong ties to Israel, from sectarian attacks.

Trump Pushes Ukraine to Accept Peace Deal, Saying It Is Losing

President Trump dialed up pressure on Ukraine to swiftly accept a U.S.-designed peace plan, hardening his position toward the embattled country and its European backers, who insist U.S. security guarantees are vital to a peace deal.

Exacerbating tensions between Europe and Washington, Trump lambasted European leaders as weak and said Russia holds the cards in any peace negotiation with Ukraine.

Inside Ukraine's Daring 'Operation Spiderweb' Attack on Russia

GLOBAL NEWS

JPMorgan's Stock Slide Weighs on Dow Industrials

A sharp drop in JPMorgan Chase shares dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday.

JPMorgan fell 4.7%, marking the stock's worst day since April, after the nation's largest bank told investors that expenses next year will rise to $105 billion, above analysts' expectations of approximately $101 billion.

Trump Plans Final Interviews With Fed Chair Candidates in Coming Days

President Trump is planning to start his final round of interviews in the coming days with candidates to be the next Federal Reserve chair.

Trump and some of his aides are scheduled to interview former Fed governor Kevin Warsh on Wednesday, according to senior administration officials. Other candidates, including Trump's National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett, are soon expected to meet with the president, the officials said.

Massive Debt-Fueled Deals Are Back on Wall Street

The megadeal is back and so is Wall Street's immense appetite for debt.

Paramount's hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery this week, the leveraged buyout of gaming company Electronic Arts earlier this year and other recent debt-laden transactions have all been possible thanks to a spike in lending by banks and even some private-credit funds.

China's Consumer Inflation Ticks Up, But Factory Deflation Worsens

China's consumer inflation gained pace in November but was slightly below expectations, benefiting from a low base while factory deflation worsened.

The country's consumer-price index rose 0.7% from a year earlier last month, surpassing October's 0.2% increase and marking the second straight month of improvement, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed Wednesday. A poll of economists by The Wall Street Journal had predicted the index to rise 0.8%.

Asia Shows Economic Resilience in Year of Tariffs, But Growth Set to Slow, ADB Says

SINGAPORE-Asia's economies have fared better than expected in a year dominated by U.S. tariff threats but growth will slow next year, the Asian Development Bank said.

A surprisingly strong showing by India-Asia's third-largest economy-offset a deceleration in China, the ADB said as it raised its 2025 growth forecast for the region.

Russian and Chinese Bombers Fly Joint Patrol Close to Japan

TOKYO-Russian and Chinese bombers flew near Japan and South Korea in a joint patrol Tuesday that Tokyo described as a show of force, adding further strain to the worst diplomatic crisis in years between Tokyo and Beijing.

The military exercise, which Russian state media said lasted around eight hours, comes amid a series of Chinese reprisals against Tokyo over remarks last month by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting that Japan might be dragged into any conflict over Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

Trump Touts Economy in Pennsylvania Speech, Blaming Democrats for Rising Costs

Source: morningstar

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Winkelmann

Forex

Economic

The Asian Development Bank has approved a $400 million policy-based loan to support the Philippines' efforts to make it easier for investors to do business in the country.

Despite being one of Asia's fastest-growing economies, the Philippines trails regional peers in attracting foreign direct investment, held back by red tape, high power costs, and weak infrastructure.

"The private sector is an important engine of growth and job creation. Their role in the country's overall economic development cannot be overstated," said ADB Country Director for the Philippines Andrew Jeffries.

"We are committed to assisting the Philippines in finding innovative ways to create an enabling environment that would spur a more dynamic business sector - one that will help drive faster economic growth."

In the World Bank's inaugural Business Ready 2024 report, which assessed 50 economies, the Philippines ranked 16th in terms of its regulatory framework, 24th in public services, and 36th in operational efficiency, behind most regional peers.

The ADB said the funding programme, aimed at enabling investments in sectors such as renewable energy and digital infrastructure, should strengthen legal and regulatory frameworks to make starting and operating a business easier.

Last year, the Philippines attracted $8.9 billion in foreign direct investment, far lower than Malaysia's $11 billion, Indonesia's $24 billion, and Vietnam's $20 billion, according to UNCTAD's ASEAN Investment Report 2025.

The funding support to make it easier to do business comes as the Philippines grapples with a massive corruption scandal surrounding flood-control projects, with billions of pesos allegedly siphoned off substandard or "ghost" infrastructure.

The controversy has implicated public works officials, senators, and congressmen, sparking nationwide protests and constraining infrastructure spending that has weighed on investor confidence and growth.