XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Prices Rise Following Trump’s Sanctions Decision

Commodity

Political

Summary:

According to the XTI/USD chart, WTI crude is now trading above the key psychological level of $60, marking a sharp rebound of over 3% from October's lows.

The surge came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sanctions against major Russian oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which together account for more than 5 million barrels of oil per day.

The move is expected to reduce global oil supply; however, media outlets point out that:

→ there is no certainty that China and India will refrain from purchasing Russian crude;

→ previous sanctions introduced under the Biden administration — targeting companies such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz — had little impact on Russian oil exports.

What could happen next?

Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart

On 20 October, we noted that two descending channels had formed:

→ Red channel – a long-term pattern that developed following the Middle East escalation in June;

→ Purple channel – indicating accelerated downside pressure driven by rising OPEC+ output and hopes for a U.S.–China trade accord.

Our earlier assumption that the market was oversold and that the Falling Wedge pattern might trigger a bullish reversal proved correct (as shown by the arrow). Following the formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, oil prices climbed towards the median line of the purple channel.

At this stage, consolidation appears the most likely scenario, as supply and demand may stabilise around the channel's median. Much will depend on statements from the White House, since higher oil prices could threaten U.S. inflation objectives.

However, if bullish momentum persists, WTI may continue to rise towards the next resistance area, defined by:

→ the upper boundary of the purple channel;

→ the 8–9 October highs, where a false breakout similar to the bear trap seen on 26 September cannot be ruled out.

Source: FXOpen

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Gerik

Political

Coordinated Sanctions Strategy

In a major policy shift, President Donald Trump announced sweeping sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil Russia’s energy powerhouses calling the measures “tremendous” but temporary. The European Union quickly followed with its own sanctions, banning Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the first time and targeting Russian banks, crypto exchanges, and affiliated entities in India and China.

This joint transatlantic front represents the most aggressive attempt yet to dismantle the financial machinery funding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas applauded the US for sending a “signal of strength,” while Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that the latest measures aim to strike at the “heart of Russia’s war economy.”

Impact on Energy Markets

The announcement caused immediate market tremors. Brent crude surged 3.3% to $64.66 per barrel, while WTI rose to $60.46. Analysts like Tamas Varga from PVM Oil Associates described the US sanctions as a "significant" development marking the first direct blow by the Trump administration against Russia’s oil exports.

However, Varga cautioned that past sanctions were often blunted by eager alternative buyers. He highlighted India’s recent decision to sharply cut Russian oil imports as a turning point, indicating that consumer pressure must accompany supplier sanctions to create meaningful disruption.

Strategic Timing and Political Symbolism

The timing of these coordinated actions is no accident. The EU finalized its sanctions hours before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was set to meet European leaders in Brussels. Meanwhile, Trump is scheduled to visit Asia, potentially overlapping with Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s regional summit appearances, though no bilateral meeting is confirmed.

This backdrop points to a broader geopolitical realignment. The West is tightening its grip on global energy flows while implicitly pressuring neutral nations like India and China to reduce their ties with Russia. By including crypto platforms and Asian intermediaries in its sanctions scope, the EU aims to cut off remaining financial lifelines to Moscow.

The combined EU-US sanctions effort signals a renewed escalation in the economic war against Russia. While the immediate effect is bullish for oil prices, the long-term outcome hinges on how Russia, its remaining trade partners, and global markets adapt. The EU and US have laid down a high-stakes gambit: strangle Russia’s energy revenues to hasten an end to the war. Whether this strategy delivers a “just and lasting peace,” as von der Leyen envisions, will depend on enforcement, global coordination, and geopolitical response.

Source: CNBC

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Economic

Stocks

European Market Overview

European indices including the FTSE 100, DAX, CAC 40, and FTSE MIB opened near flat or slightly down, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. The subdued start comes amid a major earnings day across the continent, with companies such as Unilever, Roche, Nokia, and Lloyds Banking Group releasing their Q3 results. Markets are closely watching these earnings to gauge economic momentum and business confidence across sectors.

In the background, energy markets are reacting to further US sanctions on Russia’s largest crude exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil. The sanctions, introduced due to Russia’s continued aggression in Ukraine, pushed oil prices up 3% in the previous session. This rise in oil prices adds pressure to inflation-sensitive sectors in Europe.

US-China Trade Tensions Resurface

Adding to market volatility, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Kuala Lumpur from October 24 to 27. The talks aim to address growing strains in trade relations, which have escalated due to new tech export curbs and proposed tariffs on Chinese goods and vessels. The upcoming dialogue is particularly crucial, as a current trade truce is set to expire on November 10.

The talks are also expected to pave the way for a potential side meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the APEC Summit in South Korea later this month. Trump’s public threats of heightened tariffs and possible cancellation of the bilateral meeting with Xi sparked by China’s rare-earth control policies have rattled markets and corporate boardrooms alike.

Global Market Sentiment

Across Asia-Pacific, markets mirrored Wall Street’s overnight declines following mixed earnings from Tesla, IBM, and Lam Research. Tesla shares fell 3% on weaker-than-expected automotive margins, while IBM’s 6% drop was driven by underwhelming software revenues despite an earnings beat.

U.S. futures edged slightly lower, reflecting investor caution as earnings season continues to test the strength of the current bull market.

Investors will remain focused on Europe’s earnings, upcoming trade developments in Asia, and any signs of progress in US-China relations. French business confidence data and Spanish trade figures are also due today and could influence the regional macro outlook. For now, cautious sentiment is expected to dominate amid global political uncertainty and inflation-linked commodity shifts.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Political

Trump Signals Strategic Break with Putin Over Ukraine War

President Donald Trump on Wednesday publicly criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin for stalling peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine, saying that conversations with the Russian leader "don’t go anywhere." Speaking alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump announced he had canceled a planned meeting with Putin in Hungary, stating it no longer felt constructive to proceed.

This abrupt reversal comes just days after a reportedly “productive” phone call between the two leaders. Trump’s new tone marks a strategic pivot, aligning more closely with NATO allies and signaling waning U.S. patience with Russia’s position on the Ukraine conflict.

Oil Sanctions Escalate Pressure on Moscow’s War Financing

The Trump administration concurrently imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil including dozens of subsidiaries. These companies are central to Russia’s export economy and government revenues, and the sanctions aim to constrict the Kremlin’s ability to fund the ongoing war.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that the department stands ready to take further action and urged allied governments to adopt similar restrictions. The sanctions reflect a shift from dialogue to economic coercion, using Russia’s energy sector as leverage to press for a ceasefire.

European Union leaders followed suit on Thursday, approving a fresh round of sanctions that includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and targets 45 entities including 12 in China and Hong Kong involved in sanctions evasion. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas praised the U.S. move, calling it “a good signal of strength.”

Moscow Avoids Public Confrontation For Now

Despite the sweeping sanctions and public snub, Russian officials have remained publicly silent. Pro-Kremlin media outlets including TASS, RIA Novosti, and Radio Sputnik largely avoided covering Trump’s remarks or the cancellation of the summit. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov has not issued a statement, and Russia’s foreign ministry offered only a brief, restrained response.

Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Moscow remains open to “continuing contacts” with the U.S. but reaffirmed that Russia’s military objectives in Ukraine remain unchanged. She criticized the sanctions as counterproductive to peace.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev, however, offered a far more combative tone. In a Telegram post, he described the U.S. as an adversary and accused Trump of "aligning himself with an insane Europe." His remarks suggest that hardliners within Russia's political establishment see the cancellation and sanctions as a breakdown in any cooperative diplomacy.

Strategic Implications: From Engagement to Containment

The shift from planned summits to economic isolation indicates a deeper reassessment in U.S. policy toward Russia. Trump’s frustration over stalled peace talks has been channeled into punitive action, leveraging Russia’s dependency on oil exports as a pressure point.

The sanctions package marks a departure from earlier U.S. efforts like the G7 oil price cap, which aimed to limit Russia’s revenue while keeping supply stable. The direct targeting of Rosneft and Lukoil introduces new risk to global oil flows and with it, to energy prices but also delivers a clear signal of Washington’s willingness to prioritize geopolitical outcomes over market stability.

Trump’s cancellation of the Putin meeting, combined with the harshest sanctions yet on Russia’s oil industry, underscores a turning point in U.S.-Russia relations. While Moscow has not officially responded, the silence speaks volumes. With diplomatic channels narrowing and economic pressure mounting, both sides appear to be preparing for a prolonged phase of strategic disengagement. Whether this accelerates a resolution to the Ukraine war or entrenches the standoff remains to be seen but the diplomatic landscape has clearly shifted.

Source: CNBC

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

Lloyds Profits Plunge 36% As It Feels Impact Of Uk Car Finance Scandal_1

Lloyds Banking Group profits have been sent plunging by more than a third by the car loans commission scandal, as the lender steels itself for a surge in compensation payouts to drivers.The high street bank took the 36% hit in the third quarter after putting aside a further £800m to cover the prospective costs of a redress scheme proposed by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).

The additional charge, announced last week, brings Lloyds' total compensation pot to £1.95bn.Lloyds is the UK's biggest car lender through its Black Horse division and is expected to foot the largest bill among its peers.The additional charge sent Lloyds' pre-tax profits down 36% to £1.17bn in the three months to the end of September. That was down from £1.8bn during the same period last year.The FCA's scheme, which is currently out for consultation, could end up costing car lenders a combined £11bn, as the regulator seeks to draw a line under 14m historic car loan contracts that may be deemed unfair because of controversial commission arrangements with car dealers.

However, while the FCA is hoping to start payouts next year, it faces the looming threat of having its proposed compensation plans challenged in court by aggrieved lenders.When asked whether Lloyds was keeping the door open to taking the regulator to court, Lloyds' chief financial officer, William Chalmers, said it was "just far too early to speculate" on the next steps.

At the moment, he said the bank was focused on "constructive dialogue" with the FCA over disputed proposals for the scheme. "We do intend to compensate customers appropriately where harm has been suffered. That's an absolute commitment," Chalmers said.However, Lloyds is concerned that the scheme would end up compensating too many customers, roughly 44% of car loans issued since 2007. "We think that is in extent of what can be appropriately described as unfair."

Lloyds also claims that the proposals "do not align" with the supreme court ruling in August that led the FCA to launch plans for a mass compensation scheme. Chalmers said the FCA is proposing to compensate drivers in cases where the commission paid to car dealers for arranging the loans was not clearly disclosed to borrowers. "For example, the supreme court did not determine that non-disclosure equals unfair."

He also said the FCA's calculations on how to determine compensation payouts "is very unclearly linked to harm".Chalmers added: "We will contribute to the FCA consultation process and hopefully make progress in a constructive dialog for the FCA to get to an appropriate and disproportionate outcome."Lloyds' latest drop in profits comes a day after its high street rival Barclays announced it was setting aside a further £235m to cover its own car finance compensation bill, taking its total compensation pot to £325m. Barclays no longer provides car finance but is dealing with the fallout for the remaining loans on its books.

Source: GUARDIAN

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Gerik

Economic

Tech Over Towers: Beijing’s Strategic Shift in Economic Priorities

As China’s Central Committee concludes its key policy meeting, it has become increasingly clear that Beijing is choosing to prioritize technological self-sufficiency and high-tech manufacturing over bailing out its struggling real estate sector. The move reflects a broader recognition that the structural forces weakening China’s property market including population decline, urban housing oversupply, and income uncertainty are beyond the reach of short-term fixes.

Ning Zhu, author of China’s Guaranteed Bubble, notes that while policymakers believe the housing market is gradually bottoming, they are unlikely to commit to large-scale support. Instead, emphasis is being placed on tech innovation amid growing U.S.-China tensions, with state media promoting achievements in risk management and future opportunities in advanced manufacturing.

Real Estate Data Paints a Grim Picture

Official statistics point to a continued decline in real estate investment, which fell 13.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year. This drop contributed to a contraction in fixed-asset investment an unprecedented outcome outside the COVID-19 pandemic.

Meanwhile, housing prices continue to fall. New home prices in China’s 70 largest cities dropped 2.7% in September from the previous month on an annualized basis, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis, a steeper decline than in August. Secondary home prices have plummeted even more severely, with year-over-year declines ranging between 5% and 20%, depending on the city.

These figures challenge the government’s narrative that risks in the property market have been effectively mitigated. Analysts warn that weak demand fundamentals particularly worsening demographics and job insecurity are sustaining downward pressure on both prices and sentiment.

Policy Measures Fall Short of Reversal

While easing measures introduced in August aimed to stimulate demand including relaxed restrictions on multi-home ownership their impact has been minimal, largely confined to less-desirable suburban areas. These policies have not sparked meaningful recovery in prime markets.

S&P Global Ratings recently downgraded its property sales forecast, now expecting an 8% decline in 2025, with another 6% drop anticipated in 2026. Moody’s echoes this pessimism, forecasting single-digit declines over the next 12 to 18 months as fading expectations of substantial stimulus weaken buyer confidence.

The situation is compounded by Beijing’s fiscal discipline. Rather than injecting large-scale stimulus, the government continues to focus on risk containment and macroprudential measures, suggesting policymakers see no urgency to fully revive the real estate engine that once fueled China's boom years.

Dual-Speed Economy: Tech and Exports Drive Growth

While the property sector continues to shrink, other segments of the Chinese economy are performing strongly. High-tech manufacturing grew by 9.6% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, outpacing overall industrial production, which rose 6.2%. Exports also remained resilient, with an 8.3% increase in September, despite a sharp 27% drop in shipments to the U.S.

Macquarie economist Larry Hu describes this divergence as a “two-speed economy,” where consumption and real estate are stagnating while exports and manufacturing remain robust. This imbalance allows short-term GDP stability but raises long-term questions about sustainability, especially if global demand slows.

Long-Term Outlook Hinges on Buyer Sentiment and Price Stabilization

While analysts agree that China’s property sector will not collapse in a disorderly fashion, most do not see a near-term recovery either. Fitch Ratings’ Lulu Shi states it is "very hard to see a trend of growth” and expects continued declines until price falls moderate and employment conditions stabilize.

Over time, easing price declines may draw some buyers back into the market, but without substantial demographic or policy shifts, the scale of past housing booms is unlikely to return.

China’s real estate sector once the foundation of its growth model is steadily losing policy favor as Beijing redirects resources toward strategic technological advancement and economic modernization. While the government believes the worst of the property crisis has passed, market data and sentiment suggest otherwise. In the near term, any recovery will likely be gradual and limited, with broader growth increasingly reliant on high-tech manufacturing and exports. For real estate, the bottom may still be some distance away and it won’t come with a rescue plan.

Source: CNBC

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Daniel Carter

Central Bank

Economic

Swiss National Bank officials decided against an interest-rate cut last month, assessing their monetary stance to be stimulative enough to stoke inflation in coming quarters.

A summary of the Sept. 25 meeting, in a new publication issued by the central bank on Thursday, showed policymakers judged current settings to be aiding the economy at a time of weak price growth and tariff-related uncertainty.

"The Governing Board concluded that monetary policy is currently having an expansionary effect," the SNB's officials said. "The full impact of the monetary policy easing in past quarters will only take effect with a lag. In light of the weak inflationary pressure and the slight deterioration in the economic outlook, the SNB's expansionary monetary policy is contributing to a rise in inflation."

The release by the SNB explains the thinking behind the decision in September to halt its easing cycle, avoiding a return to negative borrowing costs by keeping its interest rate at zero. At the time, officials judged the impact of out-sized US tariffs imposed on Switzerland to be containable.

"Most economic indicators continue to point to moderate growth," policymakers said. "However, uncertainty remains high."

SNB officials appeared publicly sanguine about the 39% tariff imposed on Switzerland — the highest for any rich economy — though forecasters have begun to shift view. Last week, the government cut its own projection for growth next year to 0.9%, down from 1.2%, citing the impact of the import levies.

Despite the strength of the franc, which depresses import costs, the SNB insists at present that deflation isn't a threat. Inflation was just 0.2% in September, near the lower end of the central bank's range, but officials predict that it will pick up moderately in coming months.

The Swiss franc held earlier losses to trade 0.1% lower at 0.9249 per euro after the release of the summary.

The publication from the SNB is the first-ever account of rate setters' deliberations published by the Swiss central bank. It's part of a push by President Martin Schlegel and his colleagues to emulate the sort of transparency over policy practiced by bigger advanced-economy peers.

It offers officials another communication tool in their struggle to contain inflows into the franc, which reached close to a decade high against the euro this week. Given the strength of the currency, the SNB is likely to be resorting to interventions at present, economists at UBS said on Wednesday.

Officials offered only limited commentary on the franc. They observed that the currency had strengthened against the dollar, but was "relatively stable" versus the euro.

"Geopolitical shocks could lead to money flowing into currency areas regarded as safe havens by investors," policymakers said. "This could result in an appreciation of the Swiss franc. This risk is currently being countered somewhat by the relatively high interest-rate differential."

Policymakers have been at pains to stress that their summary won't disclose individual positions, unlike minutes issued by the US Federal Reserve or Bank of England, for example. That's because of the SNB's approach that its three policymakers should maintain a united front in public.

The summary is published four weeks after every meeting. With four rate decisions a year, it effectively doubles the collective communications by policymakers and provides a new fixture on which to trade the franc.