Waiting For A Peace Deal Breakthrough

ING

Forex

Political

Economic

Summary:

Dollar crosses have traded in tight ranges as the Thanksgiving holiday dried up flows. Volatility shouldn't pick up materially today, even though the dollar remains vulnerable to a convergence lower towards short-term swap rates.

USD: Staying on tight ranges

Our short-term fair value model continues to display some short-term dollar overvaluation against most of the G10, and risks remain skewed towards a return to the 99.0 50-day moving average in DXY.

Geopolitical news remains closely monitored, even though the impact on FX has been contained so far. President Putin said yesterday that the draft discussed in Geneva could form the basis of a future deal with Ukraine, and US peace envoy Steve Witkoff is confirmed to visit Moscow next week. We could see some build-up in expectations of a breakthrough in negotiations ahead of that Witkoff trip.

While there is considerable caution in markets about the prospects of a peace deal, any material progress from here should weigh on the dollar and support high-beta European currencies.

EUR: Inflation numbers shouldn't be a game changers

France, Spain, Italy and Germany publish their flash CPI estimates for November today. We doubt the inflation picture is set to change dramatically in the near term, and our call on the ECB remains unchanged and in line with pricing: no changes for the whole of 2026.

However, yesterday's ECB minutes confirmed that any shift would – if anything – be on the dovish side. Evidence of persistent inflation undershooting in the forecasting horizon could prompt a more vocal reaction by the ECB doves, and put another cut back on the table.

Our call remains bullish on EUR/USD into year-end, but until some US data is published, or the Fed delivers a cut in December, it's mostly up to positive developments on the Ukraine peace deal that can drive the euro sustainably higher.

CEE: Market watches Hungary's rating reviews after fiscal target revision

In Hungary, PPI figures will be published, which will show month-on-month declines this year, dragging down the year-on-year figures. More interesting will be the rating review after the end of trading today. Moody's has a negative outlook on Hungary's rating (Baa2) from November 2024. Moody's expects a 4.6% GDP deficit for this year and 5.1% for next year. Therefore, the government's recent revision to 5% in both cases does not change the picture much, and a downgrade is less likely, but the market will certainly watch this move. More interesting may be Fitch's rating review next week on Friday, where the outlook is still "Stable" and the agency forecasts a 4.5% and 4.0% deficit.

In the Czech Republic, detailed GDP figures for the third quarter will be published today. The earlier flash estimate, at 0.7% quarterly and 2.7% annually, surprised both the market and the CNB to the upside. The Statistical Office should confirm these figures and show household consumption and investment as the main drivers of growth. However, there is some risk of a downward revision in our opinion due to the weaker monthly figures.

PLN: The market is waiting for a signal that is pricing in too many rate cuts

November inflation should show a further decline in headline inflation from 2.8% to 2.5% in our forecast, one-tenth below market expectations. Core inflation should also fall slightly from 3.0% to 2.9% YoY. This should pave the way for another rate cut by the National Bank of Poland next week. However, we believe that the market in the current conditions may be more sensitive to potential surprises than usual. The last two weeks have seen the market move rates down, outperforming CEE peers, triggering some stop-losses due to paid positioning in the PLN market. The market has thus quickly moved to price in a terminal rate of 3.50%, which is in line with our forecast but above market consensus.

If the inflation print surprises upwards, we could see new payers in rates as the view is that more rate cuts cannot be priced in and potentially higher inflation in the future. On the other hand, weaker inflation would simply confirm the current dovish trend. The market is therefore asymmetric, in our opinion, towards higher rates and potentially support for FX. Therefore, PLN has a good chance of further gains, especially if we see some progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The 4.230 levels are the bottom of the current range, but we have already seen testing lower levels in previous days and especially an upside surprise in inflation would be key to breaking lower.

Source: ING

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Gerik

Economic

A New Escalation in U.S. Immigration Policy

President Donald Trump has amplified his hardline immigration stance through late‑night statements outlining an agenda that seeks to sharply restrict migration, revoke benefits for non‑citizens and reexamine immigration pathways established under prior administrations. His rhetoric marks a significant escalation in the administration’s ongoing effort to reshape the U.S. immigration system, reflecting a continued attempt to frame migration as a national security threat rather than an economic or humanitarian issue.

In his Truth Social posts, Trump advocated “reverse migration,” a term he used to describe a reduction of both unauthorized and legally admitted individuals. The president claimed he would terminate “millions” of admissions made under the Biden administration, denaturalize migrants deemed harmful to “domestic tranquility,” and halt all federal benefits for non‑citizens. He also proposed a “permanent pause” on immigration from what he termed “Third World Countries,” though the term lacks a precise definition and carries historical and political stigma.

These declarations create a causal link in Trump’s messaging between the presence of migrants and perceived threats to national stability, though no specific mechanisms or legal frameworks were detailed. The absence of procedural clarity suggests the proposals are more political signaling than imminent policy, especially given Congress’s long‑standing gridlock on immigration legislation and previous court rulings that limited Trump-era executive orders.

A Violent Incident Accelerates Policy Messaging

The statements came on the heels of an attack on two National Guard members in Washington by an Afghan national, an event that Trump used to reinforce his administration’s previous decisions to tighten immigration vetting. The president announced the death of 20‑year‑old Specialist Sarah Beckstrom and linked the incident to broader security concerns, seeking to establish a causal narrative between crime and immigration.

In the immediate aftermath, the White House suspended reviews of Afghan immigration cases and ordered reexamination of individuals already residing in the U.S. This reflects a rapid policy reaction aligned with the administration’s pattern of using high‑profile incidents to justify enforcement measures.

Policy Infrastructure Already in Motion

Even before Trump’s latest declarations, the administration had begun implementing extensive checks on migrants. A memo reviewed earlier in the month revealed plans to reassess all refugees admitted under Biden and freeze their green card applications. Joseph Edlow, head of U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, confirmed a “full scale, rigorous reexamination” of green cards issued to individuals from “countries of concern.”

Existing restrictions already prohibit immigration from 12 countries, including Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia, and Sudan, with additional limits applied to seven more. These moves parallel Trump’s previous term, when travel bans targeted countries such as Iran, Libya, North Korea, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen. The continuity illustrates a consistent policy logic: using national security framing to justify categorical entry restrictions.

Legal and Constitutional Challenges Ahead

While Trump continues to push for aggressive enforcement, his administration remains constrained by judicial oversight. Upon returning to office, he signed an executive order halting all refugee admissions a directive that courts immediately challenged. Although an appeals court allowed a pause in new entries, it compelled the government to continue providing services to refugees already admitted.

Efforts to revoke temporary protected status, impose a sharply increased $100,000 fee for H‑1B visas, and challenge the constitutional right to birthright citizenship likewise reveal a strategy that tests the boundaries of presidential authority. These initiatives demonstrate correlation rather than direct causation between policy ambition and actual legal outcomes, as many measures remain entangled in ongoing litigation.

Afghan Migration and the Legacy of U.S. Involvement

A major point of contention involves the more than 190,000 Afghans admitted to the U.S. following the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Many assisted American forces during the war, and their presence highlights the ethical obligations embedded in U.S. foreign policy. Trump’s renewed scrutiny of their cases illustrates the tension between national security claims and historical alliances, raising questions about how commitments to wartime partners intersect with domestic political priorities.

Trump’s push for “reverse migration” underscores an increasingly maximalist immigration agenda intended to dramatically reshape demographic and legal structures in the United States. While the rhetoric captures heightened political emotion, implementation remains uncertain due to constitutional constraints, legislative deadlock, and the legal protections afforded to many migrants. The coming months will clarify whether these statements foreshadow enforceable policy or function primarily as strategic communication aimed at consolidating political support in a deeply polarized landscape.

Source: AP

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Economic

Stocks

Muted Activity Amid U.S. Holiday Closure

With Wall Street closed for Thanksgiving, Asian trading was subdued on Friday, characterized by light volume and localized economic signals. While some benchmarks edged higher, the region offered no clear direction, reflecting investor uncertainty as global markets await signals from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting.

Despite recent optimism fueled by artificial intelligence developments and softening inflation data in the U.S., traders appear to be reassessing the durability of the rally. The pause follows a four-day winning streak for major U.S. indexes, including a 0.8% gain for the Nasdaq and 0.7% rises in both the Dow and S&P 500 on Wednesday.

Tokyo Inflation Holds, Reinforcing Rate Shift Expectations

Japan’s Nikkei 225 finished flat at 50,172.60, with notable weakness in AI-related shares such as Kioxia Holdings, Fujikura, and Lasertec. These losses highlight a reversal in speculative interest around AI, which had previously boosted valuations. Meanwhile, Tokyo’s core inflation for November remained at 2.8% year-on-year above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second straight month. This persistent inflation reinforces a potential policy shift, though a rate hike at the December BOJ meeting is still viewed as unlikely. The inflation trend, while stable, suggests a long-term causal relationship with rising rate expectations, which may gradually pressure equity valuations.

South Korea’s Kospi dropped 1.4% to 3,930.95, dragged lower by a 26.5% month-on-month collapse in semiconductor production in October. The fall in chip output contributed to a broader 4% decline in industrial production, more severe than September’s 1.1% drop. Major tech names like LG Energy Solutions, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics led the slide. The data reinforces a direct causative link between weakening production activity and market underperformance in tech-heavy indices.

China and Hong Kong Diverge Slightly

In Greater China, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2% to 25,896.33, weighed by property and tech names. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite inched up 0.2% to 3,883.46, supported by marginal buying in domestic-focused sectors. The divergence between the two markets reflects differing investor perceptions: while Hong Kong’s globally exposed firms face foreign capital outflows and regulatory risk, Shanghai’s relative insulation offers modest resilience.

Australia’s ASX 200 fell 0.1% to 8,608.90, as resource-related sectors failed to offset broader weakness. In contrast, Taiwan’s Taiex rose 0.9%, benefiting from renewed interest in electronics exports. India’s Sensex added 0.1%, supported by stable domestic conditions ahead of upcoming GDP data releases.

Currency and Commodity Moves Provide Little Direction

In currency markets, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen to 156.34, while the euro edged lower to $1.1584. Oil prices nudged higher, with Brent crude gaining 21 cents to $63.08 per barrel and U.S. crude adding 43 cents to $59.08. The modest uptick in crude reflects both technical correction and tentative geopolitical calm as oil markets await the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting.

Friday’s session reflects a moment of hesitation in global equity markets. With no definitive macro signal and Wall Street on pause, Asian markets responded primarily to local data and sector-specific weakness, especially in tech. Inflation readings in Japan and industrial output in Korea reveal potential structural strains, while broader expectations of a dovish Fed continue to support longer-term risk appetite. As trading volume normalizes next week, the sustainability of this optimism will likely face fresh tests from central bank policy signals, earnings forecasts, and geopolitical developments.

Source: AP

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Commodity

Oil Suffers Longest Decline Since 2023 as Market Sentiment Weakens

Crude markets are bracing for their worst monthly performance in over two years. Brent crude is hovering just above $63 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) remains near $59, both benchmarks reflecting a fourth consecutive monthly drop in November. The last time oil suffered such a prolonged downturn was in the first half of 2023, indicating a significant divergence from the typical seasonal strength expected in the final quarter of the year.

The primary driver behind this sustained weakness is the growing imbalance between supply and demand. Analysts at JPMorgan estimate a surplus of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 2.7 million in 2027, fueled by both OPEC+ members restoring capacity and increased output from non-OPEC nations. This forecasted oversupply represents a clear causal factor in declining prices, as excess inventory weighs heavily on near-term market expectations.

OPEC+ Meeting Looms with Limited Surprise Potential

As OPEC+ prepares for a virtual meeting on Sunday, market participants are expecting the alliance to maintain its decision to pause output increases into early 2026. With this consensus already priced in, attention may shift toward long-term discussions on capacity reviews among member states.

Unless the meeting delivers unexpected production cuts, its impact on prices could be muted. The correlation between OPEC+ policy stability and sustained price stagnation is evident, as repeated announcements without aggressive action fail to counteract the bearish supply outlook.

Trading Disrupted as CME Glitch Freezes Futures Activity

In a rare technical disruption, trading of WTI crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) was halted Friday morning in Asia due to a system glitch reported by the CME Group. While the freeze had no lasting price impact, it briefly obscured real-time market response and highlighted the fragility of digital infrastructure in highly reactive commodity markets.

The pause in trading reflects a correlation not a causal effect on prices, but nonetheless illustrates the sensitivity of the oil market to information flow disruptions, particularly during pivotal geopolitical or policy moments.

Geopolitical Winds Shift: Peace Talk Signals from Moscow

A potentially game-changing geopolitical variable re-entered the oil market equation this week. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to U.S.-led peace negotiations concerning Ukraine, noting that former President Trump’s proposals could serve as a foundation. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is scheduled to visit Moscow, raising the possibility of early-stage diplomatic momentum.

If realized, a de-escalation in the Ukraine conflict could trigger a relaxation of Western sanctions on Russian oil flows. This outcome would introduce significant downward pressure on global prices by enabling restricted volumes to re-enter markets, particularly in Asia. However, Mukesh Sahdev of XAnalysts warns that Russia may stockpile crude initially to manage price impact, creating a brief bullish blip before longer-term bearish effects materialize.

Russian Oil Storage Surges Amid Sanctions Stress

In a sign of mounting logistical strain under sanctions, Russia’s oil field storage levels have risen above 16 million barrels a level observed only twice since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. This increase points to production outpacing exports, which may stem from both logistical bottlenecks and reduced access to shipping and insurance services.

The buildup is a direct consequence of sanctions, representing a cause-effect dynamic that could distort supply flows and complicate price forecasts in the months ahead.

Oil’s weak performance in November is the result of a confluence of structural oversupply, muted OPEC+ policy intervention, and tentative diplomatic developments. While the technical glitch at CME underscores the market’s volatility, the broader trajectory is shaped by fundamentals and geopolitics. Whether December brings relief or further declines will depend largely on whether OPEC+ shifts strategy, sanctions on Russian oil ease, and demand surprises emerge. For now, the market remains in a fragile equilibrium, with bearish pressure holding firm.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Diplomatic Realignment in the Taiwan Strait Dispute

China’s latest diplomatic initiative underscores a deepening rift with Japan over Taiwan and signals Beijing’s attempt to recalibrate international support. On Thursday, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi held a call with Emmanuel Bonne, diplomatic adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron, urging mutual backing on “core interests,” a veiled reference to Taiwan and sovereignty concerns. The appeal comes just days before Macron’s scheduled state visit to China and reflects growing urgency from Beijing to secure European neutrality or even tacit support as geopolitical competition in East Asia intensifies.

The current dispute was sparked by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 7 remarks that explicitly connected Japan’s national security to a potential Taiwan Strait crisis. This marked a historical first from a sitting Japanese leader, intensifying Beijing’s perception of strategic encirclement. In Beijing’s view, this linkage elevates the Taiwan issue from rhetorical ambiguity to an actionable military contingency involving a key regional rival.

Beijing has characterized the comments as a direct affront to Chinese sovereignty. The Chinese Communist Party’s official newspaper, People’s Daily, condemned the remarks as a “serious provocation,” indicating a cause-effect relationship between Takaichi’s language and China’s escalated diplomatic posture. This escalation includes a formal letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, in which China accused Takaichi of violating international law.

France’s Role: A Strategic Buffer or a Symbolic Ally?

China’s outreach to France carries both symbolic and strategic weight. Macron’s upcoming visit is expected to focus on trade and commercial cooperation, but Beijing is clearly aiming to extend the agenda into the geopolitical arena. Wang Yi’s request for France to "firmly support each other on core interests" is a direct test of whether France’s diplomatic engagement with China can remain purely economic or will inevitably drift toward strategic alignment.

France has not publicly responded to the request. However, the context is complicated by Macron’s own recent conversation with Takaichi on November 23, during which both sides reaffirmed their bilateral partnership and advanced talks on a Reciprocal Access Agreement for joint military training. This reflects a growing trend of strategic alignment between Japan and fellow G7 democracies, driven by mutual concern over any unilateral attempts especially by China to alter the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s Escalating Strategy: Diplomatic, Economic, and Rhetorical Pressure

China’s response to Takaichi’s statement has not been limited to diplomatic engagement. It includes economic reprisals and a coordinated media narrative aimed at isolating Japan’s position internationally. This multi-pronged strategy signals that Beijing views Tokyo’s remarks not as isolated rhetoric but as part of a broader shift in Japan’s security doctrine one that could justify future regional defense cooperation or even intervention.

Although causality between Japan’s public remarks and potential troop deployment has not been established, the Chinese government’s framing suggests that it views even hypothetical linkages as threats requiring preemptive diplomatic countermeasures.

Despite calls from Beijing to retract her comments, Takaichi has refused. She clarified this week that her remarks were not intended to signal any specific Taiwan policy but were in line with Japan’s broader contingency planning, which evaluates threats based on real-time intelligence and context. This clarification retains an element of strategic ambiguity a traditional pillar of Japan’s security stance while asserting a right to respond to regional instability.

China’s move to involve France in its dispute with Japan reflects the increasingly global dimension of the Taiwan issue. It is no longer confined to cross-strait dynamics but intersects with broader alliances, multilateral institutions, and global norms. Whether France responds to Beijing’s overture may set a precedent for how European powers engage with the U.S.-led alliance network in Asia. The coming weeks, particularly around Macron’s state visit, will reveal whether Europe leans toward economic pragmatism with China or strategic solidarity with democratic allies in Asia.

Source: Bloomberg

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James Whitman

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday his administration could slash federal income taxes "substantially" or even eliminate them "completely" within the next few years, relying on soaring tariff revenues.

Speaking to U.S. military service members, Trump argued that the money coming in from tariffs could grow so large that it might fully replace income tax income.

The proposal is consistent with Trump's broader trade-first fiscal agenda, which envisions tariffs as the backbone of federal revenue. While he offered no detailed roadmap or timetable, the remarks signal a dramatic shift away from conventional taxation.

Trump had also floated the idea of a "tariff dividend." Earlier this month, he argued his critics had been proven wrong and pledged that most Americans would get at least $2,000 from the tariff windfall.

Source: Investing

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

It's been months since the European Union started working on a legal framework to use frozen Russian assets for a €140 billion ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine to bolster its war effort. The pressure to get it done is now ratcheting up as Donald Trump tries to persuade Volodymyr Zelenskiy to sign a peace deal the US came up with after talks with Moscow.

Investors bought into the prospect of US-led negotiations leading to an accord. Poland's zloty, the Hungarian forint and Czech koruna were among the world's best performing emerging-market currencies on Monday. But Ukraine's European allies were left scrambling to respond.

Washington's proposal not only included swathes of territory being given to Russia but limits on Ukraine's armed forces, too. The Trump administration has also recently revealed how it wants to use the frozen assets for joint investments with Russia as well as Ukraine's reconstruction.

The EU has been dragging its feet on the issue for a long time. Belgium, where most of the Russian funds are housed, has been worried about potential legal ramifications. But Ukraine's money supply is set to run dry in the coming months, and Europe's more nationalist political landscape makes it harder for governments to promise cash when taxpayers are feeling squeezed.

One piece of good news was that the International Monetary Fund agreed a new $8.2 billion financing program with Ukraine. It's contingent, though, on getting "assurance from donors" before it get full approval.

Meanwhile, a phone call last month between US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and a senior Kremlin official offered direct insight into the recent tactics for negotiating with Russia, according to a Bloomberg exclusive. Witkoff is due in Moscow next week. Freeing up money for Ukraine might help strengthen Europe's hand when figuring out how to respond next.

Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his top diplomat have been on a whirlwind tour with an eye to snapping up sanctioned Russian-owned refineries. Energy company Mol is in talks with Serbia about the country's sole refiner, NIS, which is controlled by Russia's Gazprom.

Romania: The government will set up a mechanism to place companies at risk of being hit by international sanctions under special oversight, such as the local unit of Russian state-owned Lukoil.

Poland: The country plans to start 2026 with a flurry of foreign-currency bond sales, expecting sufficient investor interest to fund the sovereign's growing borrowing needs, according to the Finance Ministry's public debt chief.

Slovenia: The regulator blocked an attempt by a government agency in neighboring Croatia to take over the Ljubljana Stock Exchange, citing a failure to meet "legal criteria."

Czech Republic: The three parties preparing to form the next government rejected the outgoing administration's draft budget for next year, saying the plan lacked financing for key spending areas.

Once overlooked, the Slovak capital has undergone a huge transformation in recent years, turning into a place with one of the highest GDPs per capita in the region. Its skyline has also reflected that change, Daniel Hornak reports for Bloomberg CityLab, thanks to more than $3 billion flowing into development projects. One area of the city center is now home to two-dozen new buildings, crowned by the first skyscraper over 150 meters.

"This time it's real," says Andreja Mladenovic. It's been joked about for years as something never going to happen, but the man ultimately in charge of building Belgrade's metro reckons the time has finally come for Europe's biggest capital city without a subway to get one. City officials say there are binding contracts signed with Chinese and French construction companies and bankers. The aim is for the first, €4.4 billion line to open in 2030 — almost a century since the city first tried to get an underground railway.