US JOLTs Report To Set The Stage For Tomorrow’s Fed Decision

Danske Bank

Stocks

Forex

Economic

Summary:

In the US, the delayed September JOLTs report is finally due for release in the afternoon.

In focus today

In the US, the delayed September JOLTs report is finally due for release in the afternoon. The number of job openings is a key measure of labour demand for the Fed, and the release will gather extra attention in light of the FOMC rate decision tomorrow. NFIB's small business optimism index for November and ADP's weekly private sector employment estimate will also be released today.

In Denmark, we expect foreign trade data and the current account for October. It will be interesting as exports remain the key driver of growth in Denmark.

In China, overnight, we will see CPI for November, which is expected to move more into positive territory (cons: 0.7% y/y, prior: 0.2% y/y). Core inflation has moved higher over the past six months as well. China still suffers from deflationary pressures in the producer prices, though, and PPI is expected to stay around -2.0% y/y in November.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In Australia, the Reserve Bank held its cash rate at 3.60%, citing upside inflation risks and recovering demand. Governor Michele Bullock noted the board is considering the likelihood of rate hikes in 2026 and has not ruled out an increase as soon as its next meeting in February. The move resulted in higher yields and a slightly stronger AUD.

What happened yesterday

In the US, President Trump announced that Nvidia's H200 chips will be allowed for export to China, with Nvidia required to pay a 25% fee on sales, up from the initial 15%. Trump claimed that President Xi reacted positively to the decision, despite China expressing scepticism about such a deal last week. The decision has faced criticism from US lawmakers, who raised concerns over national security and the risk of the chips being used for military purposes in China.

In the euro area, the December Sentix indicator came in slightly better than expected at -6.2 (cons: -7.0, prior: -7.4), indicating investors have gotten less pessimistic about the economic recovery. Given how Sentix is the first sentiment indicator for December, the rise could signal improvements in other sentiment indicators to be released this month.

In Germany, industrial production increased by 1.8% m/m in October, significantly exceeding expectations and marking the second consecutive monthly rise. Growth was driven by construction and manufacturing, while the automotive sector detracted. Despite this sign of short-term stabilisation, soft indicators remain cautious. The Ifo Index fell in November as weaker expectations outweighed a slight improvement in the current assessment, and the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, its sharpest contraction since February. This highlights that while production shows improvement, weak demand and sentiment suggest recovery remains dependent on the impact of fiscal easing measures.

Equities: Equities had a slow start to the week and generally ended somewhat lower. The S&P 500 closed down 0.4% and the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.1%. Interestingly, the selling was again concentrated in defensives, similar to Friday. Hence, it was a slow day but not risk off emerging. Futures are little changed this morning.

One standout style yesterday was momentum, which has regained traction both on the day and over the past two weeks. One driver is the ongoing TPU-vs-GPU battle between Alphabet and Nvidia, which appears to have stalled. Alphabet fell 2% yesterday, while Nvidia and Microsoft both gained around 2%. After the close, the Trump administration announced that some of Nvidia's chip exports (H200 AI chips) to China may resume, which might have contributed to the rotation.

Another notable sector is health care: A top performer over the past three months—up roughly 8% in global terms. However, it has also been the sector investors have found financing in during the recent rebound, falling about 3% the last two weeks. This contributes to the divergence between defensives and cyclicals, both in risk-off and risk-on phases. Strong recent performance has narrowed global health care's valuation discount to global equities from 20% earlier this year to about 9% today. That is still one standard deviation below the 10-year average of 0%, and so we continue to recommend an overweight in this sector but admit that the upside has declined.

FI and FX: Yields are grinding higher despite the expectations of a Fed rate cut on Wednesday. Markets are seemingly getting a bit worried that the cut will be delivered with a more hawkish communication, and risk sentiment has also been dented with small declines in US and Asian equity indices overnight. EUR/USD declined towards 1.1620 yesterday afternoon as US yields temporarily spiked around 16.00 CET. With yields subsequently moving lower, EUR/USD settled around 1.1640-1.1650. The RBA kept the policy rate on hold at 3.60% as widely expected and signaled that risks from here are on the upside, resulting in a bearish steepening of the curve with the 2y point rising 9bp and the 10y rising 5bp, along with a stronger AUD.

Source: Danske Bank

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

Turkey arrested two players from its top football division and a former Super League club chairman as an illegal betting investigation widened to include executives and athletes, escalating a scandal that has already ensnared referees.

20 of 39 suspects were formally arrested, state-run Anadolu Agency reported. They include Galatasaray defender Metehan Baltaci, Fenerbahce midfielder Mert Hakan Yandas and Murat Sancak, the former chairman of Adana Demirspor — the club where Italian striker Mario Balotelli played in the 2021–22 and 2023–24 seasons.

Both players and Sancak denied the allegations during their testimony, local media reported. Galatasaray and Fenerbahce have not yet issued public statements.

Prosecutors sought the formal arrests of Yandas and Baltaci on match-fixing charges, according to Anadolu. Baltaci was first accused of betting on his own team, while Yandas allegedly placed bets through intermediaries on betting platforms. Sancak was detained after suspicious financial transactions were identified in his accounts.

The Turkish Football Federation said in October that its internal probe had uncovered hundreds of referees engaged in betting. The Federation's Disciplinary Board temporarily suspended more than 100 referees and players, covering both lower and top-tier leagues.

Istanbul prosecutors followed with detention warrants targeting match officials alleged to have wagered on games. Istanbul Chief Prosecutor Akin Gurlek signaled the investigation could expand to club presidents.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin’s 2025 Rally Stalls as Market Volatility Returns

After a promising start driven by the re-election of crypto-friendly President Donald Trump, Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory has become increasingly unstable. While early optimism pushed the asset to an all-time high above $126,000 in October, the subsequent announcement of tariffs and looming export controls sent shockwaves through both crypto and equity markets. The result was a rapid liquidation of over $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions the largest in history.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $89,000, down sharply from its peak and struggling to recover amid risk-off investor sentiment. Analysts note that the cryptocurrency is now at risk of ending the year lower, a reversal from bullish projections made earlier in 2025 by firms like MicroStrategy and Standard Chartered, both of which previously forecast highs of $150,000 to $200,000 by year-end.

Correlation with Equities Grows Stronger in 2025

One of the defining features of this year’s crypto market has been Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with equity markets, particularly the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Traditionally viewed as a non-correlated or even counter-cyclical asset, Bitcoin now appears to mirror broader risk asset behavior.

According to LSEG data, the average correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 rose to 0.50 in 2025, up from 0.29 in 2024. A similar pattern was seen with the NASDAQ 100, with correlation rising from 0.23 to 0.52. This reflects a deeper integration of crypto into traditional financial markets, driven by the entrance of retail and institutional investors seeking high-growth, high-risk opportunities.

AI stocks, in particular, have exerted a noticeable influence on crypto price movements. As AI-related equities saw their valuations questioned, Bitcoin and other digital assets also declined, suggesting that both markets now share a common sensitivity to investor risk appetite and speculative cycles.

Interest Rates and Fed Policy Add to Uncertainty

Alongside its equity-like behavior, Bitcoin has become increasingly reactive to changes in interest rate expectations. While historical data offers little clarity on Bitcoin’s performance during rate cut cycles, recent market dynamics suggest that dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are interpreted as bullish for crypto.

Following hawkish Fed messaging in October, Bitcoin saw renewed weakness. But with markets now pricing in an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, crypto markets are cautiously optimistic. Traders have slightly reduced their bearish bets, with the probability of Bitcoin ending the year below $80,000 falling from 20% to 15% in recent weeks.

Nevertheless, investors remain skeptical about any immediate return to bullish momentum. Phong Le, CEO of MicroStrategy (now referred to as “Strategy”), recently warned of a potential “Bitcoin winter,” even as the company maintains a large exposure. Founder Michael Saylor, however, insisted the company could withstand a 95% drawdown in Bitcoin’s price.

From Independence to Interdependence: Bitcoin’s Shifting Narrative

Bitcoin’s journey in 2025 underscores a significant evolution in how it is perceived by the market. Once hailed as a decentralized, inflation-resistant store of value, the asset now behaves increasingly like a high-beta tech stock heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions, central bank policy, and investor speculation in adjacent sectors like AI.

This shift has both strategic and narrative implications for the crypto sector. While increased institutional adoption brings credibility and capital, it also subjects crypto to the same systemic pressures and herd behavior that govern traditional financial markets. As a result, Bitcoin’s diversification utility may be diminishing at the very moment it gains broader acceptance.

Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has mirrored the volatility of global markets, shaped by trade policy shocks, interest rate uncertainty, and the speculative boom in AI. While the asset achieved historic highs earlier in the year, a combination of macro headwinds and evolving correlations with equities may force it to close the year with a rare annual loss. Whether Bitcoin reclaims its role as a unique alternative asset or remains bound to broader market sentiment will be a defining question as the world enters the next cycle of monetary and technological transformation.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Fed’s Unique Status Raises Red Flags in Supreme Court Hearing

During oral arguments on Monday, Justice Brett Kavanaugh emerged as a critical voice expressing unease about the broader implications of a legal challenge that could expand presidential firing authority over independent agencies. The case focused on the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) may set a precedent that affects institutions such as the Federal Reserve, which historically operates with a high degree of autonomy from the White House.

Kavanaugh, appointed by Trump during his first term, directly questioned US Solicitor General John Sauer about how the administration's broad claims on executive control could impact the central bank’s longstanding protection from political interference. Notably, he stated, “I share those concerns,” when referring to the Fed’s independence, underlining the stakes of the case as extending well beyond the FTC.

Trump’s Legal Strategy and the Push to Fire Lisa Cook

Although the case before the court concerns the FTC, the justices are also preparing to hear a separate challenge in January involving Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over unproven allegations of mortgage fraud. That pending case casts a shadow over the current debate, especially given the president's history of pressuring the Fed to slash interest rates and his desire to appoint loyalists to the Board of Governors.

The administration argues that Congress cannot limit the president’s ability to remove officials who perform executive functions. However, it has stopped short of directly challenging the “for cause” protection that shields Fed officials, instead framing the Fed as a potential exception or “anomaly.”

Still, the Justice Department has insisted that courts should not be able to reverse presidential firing decisions, a position Kavanaugh challenged. He warned that such a stance could enable end-runs around constitutional protections by preventing judicial remedies for improper dismissals particularly in agencies like the Fed and the specialized tax courts.

Historical Precedents and Legal Nuance

The Supreme Court's past rulings have treated the Federal Reserve differently from other agencies. In a May order, the Court referred to the Fed as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity,” setting it apart from purely executive bodies. This status echoes its roots in the tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States and reinforces its intended insulation from electoral and executive cycles.

When Trump sought to immediately remove Lisa Cook, the Court declined his request for expedited action, opting to let the legal process play out another indication that the Fed’s role is viewed with greater constitutional sensitivity than other agencies where firings were allowed to proceed during litigation.

Kavanaugh’s remarks and the court’s recent history suggest that while a ruling may favor presidential authority over bodies like the FTC, the same logic may not apply to the Fed. However, any ambiguity left in the final opinion could have lasting implications, especially if legal protections for other agencies are weakened while the Fed remains a standalone exception.

Implications for Monetary Policy and Central Bank Integrity

The broader concern, raised by both liberal and conservative jurists, is whether granting Trump unilateral power to remove Fed governors would threaten the central bank’s credibility and policy independence. Former officials and economists have long warned that politicizing the Fed whose primary mandate is to control inflation and support employment would undermine market confidence and macroeconomic stability.

As the Fed prepares to cut interest rates for the third time this year, the timing of the legal battles is critical. Trump’s repeated criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and calls for more aggressive rate cuts illustrate the potential for a shift in central bank governance if presidential removal powers are expanded. With Cook still participating in meetings and voting for rate reductions despite the pending litigation, the Court’s eventual ruling could either reinforce or unravel the boundary between monetary policy and political influence.

The Supreme Court's consideration of presidential firing power raises foundational questions about the structure of the US government. Justice Kavanaugh's reservations reflect a deeper institutional concern: preserving the Federal Reserve’s independence as a safeguard against short-term political agendas. As Trump seeks to reshape federal agencies in his image, the Court must now determine whether preserving historical exceptions like the Fed will remain compatible with a broader expansion of executive power. The stakes, both legal and economic, could reshape the federal landscape for decades to come.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Hardware Momentum: China’s Manufacturing Muscle Drives AI Device Boom

China’s AI wearables market is already teeming with innovation, showcasing the nation’s industrial agility in capitalizing on emerging consumer technologies. Leveraging its deep-rooted manufacturing capabilities, China has quickly transitioned from being the factory of the world to a frontrunner in producing AI-powered consumer hardware.

According to Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, CEO of 01.AI and a leading figure in China's AI investment landscape, the country's distinct advantage lies in its ability to rapidly scale hardware production. While current global competition is centered on software, large language models, and agent frameworks, Lee predicts the next battleground will be physical devices an arena where China has already gained momentum.

Smartglasses and AI Accessories: From Global Contenders to Local Giants

Following Meta’s successful rollout of AI-powered smartglasses in 2023, over 70 Chinese companies quickly entered the space. Brands like Inmo and Rokid have released their own eyewear products for international markets, while Xiaomi and Alibaba have focused on domestic offerings enhanced by their proprietary AI systems.

Alibaba’s DingTalk A1, for example, resembles a business card in size but packs an AI-powered toolkit capable of recording, transcribing, and analyzing conversations up to 8 meters away making it a functional asset in corporate environments. This device parallels the Plaud Note, available in the U.S., illustrating how China is not only innovating independently but also adapting global trends to suit its own market.

In a more niche development, Chinese startup Le Le Gaoshang Education Technology has launched a wearable translator aimed at Chinese parents seeking to teach English at home. The gadget, shaped like a neck pillow and fitted with a mouth-covering speaker, integrates AI systems from Tencent and iFlyTek. Retailing for $420, it attempts to simulate a foreign speaker experience for children a blend of educational ambition and technological novelty.

Adoption Cycle and the Data Advantage

The high availability of AI devices across various price points and functions helps normalize AI interaction among consumers. This accelerated adoption loop doesn’t just serve immediate commercial goals it also amplifies data collection at scale. Analysts believe this real-world feedback is a vital differentiator, enabling Chinese AI developers to fine-tune models more efficiently than competitors in markets where AI devices are still largely conceptual.

Tom van Dillen of Greenkern, a tech consultancy based in Beijing, emphasized this advantage. He noted that while international discussions often speculate about the future of AI devices, China is already living in that future, which in turn improves the very AI that powers these tools.

Caveats to Chinese Dominance: Software and Trust Remain Obstacles

Despite its edge in hardware deployment, China’s long-term position in the AI race is not guaranteed. The quality of AI software, concerns around privacy, and the ability to attract global consumers will play defining roles. Dr. Lee cautioned that achieving a dominant position requires not just mass production but the creation of a transformative product with global appeal akin to the iPhone during its revolutionary debut.

China may possess the engineers, entrepreneurs, and infrastructure to produce such a device, but its AI must resonate beyond borders. The question remains whether Chinese products can overcome global skepticism, especially regarding data privacy and geopolitical concerns, to become universally adopted.

China’s AI wearables sector demonstrates the country’s formidable capacity to scale up hardware innovation at unmatched speed. From corporate tools to educational translators, its companies are flooding the market with smart, AI-integrated gadgets. However, the global AI race won’t be won on manufacturing alone. Unless Chinese firms can pair their hardware prowess with trusted, world-class software and international consumer appeal, their early lead may not translate into long-term dominance. The race continues and it remains far from decided.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Stocks

Economic

Cautious Sentiment Prevails Ahead of Fed’s Final Decision

Asian-Pacific equity markets opened the week under pressure, largely echoing Wall Street's pullback amid investor caution over the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision scheduled for December 10. While expectations are broadly aligned around a 25 basis point cut that would lower the Federal Funds Rate to the 3.5%–3.75% range, uncertainty about the Fed’s stance beyond this cut has heightened volatility. Analysts suggest Fed Chair Jerome Powell may adopt a wait-and-see approach going forward, hinging further moves on incoming economic data, particularly labor market indicators.

The region’s key indexes reflected the subdued mood. Japan's Nikkei 225 was the outlier, posting a modest 0.39% gain to close at 50,780.86. In contrast, South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.69%, Australia’s ASX 200 dropped 0.23%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined by 0.84% to 25,549.31. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite dipped slightly by 0.13%, while India’s Nifty 50 also lost 0.36%.

Although Japan began trading in positive territory, its early gains faded later in the session. The broader Topix index turned negative by 0.17%, highlighting investor hesitancy despite a relatively stable domestic outlook.

Wall Street Weakens as Fed and Chip Policy Intersect

Overnight losses on Wall Street contributed to the subdued sentiment in Asia. The S&P 500 dropped 0.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 215.67 points or 0.45%, and the Nasdaq Composite eased by 0.14%. These movements suggest investors are trimming risk exposure ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement, bracing for potentially hawkish messaging despite the expected cut.

However, U.S. futures recovered slightly Monday night, buoyed by news that President Trump had approved Nvidia’s H200 chip exports to China under strict conditions. The market interpreted the decision as a compromise between national security and economic pragmatism, helping Nvidia stock rise 2.2% in after-hours trading. The approval also stipulates that 25% of revenue from the chip sales would be paid to the U.S. government, introducing a new revenue-sharing precedent in trade policy.

Trade and Policy Developments Shape Market Direction

The decline in Asian markets is causally linked to both global monetary expectations and U.S. policy shifts. Anticipation of a Fed rate cut introduces monetary uncertainty, particularly if Powell signals a longer pause or suggests inflation risks persist. Meanwhile, Trump’s selective easing of chip export restrictions introduces a potentially bullish signal for tech and semiconductor firms but raises geopolitical complexities in U.S.-China relations.

The mixed market response reflects this blend of correlation and causation. While Nvidia’s news buoyed U.S. tech sentiment, the broader drag from monetary tightening and weakened global demand continues to weigh on investor confidence in Asia.

The Asia-Pacific market performance highlights a delicate balancing act between monetary easing in the U.S., evolving trade policies in the tech sector, and cautious investor sentiment globally. As the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its final rate decision of the year, and with high-stakes geopolitical developments underway, market participants are positioning defensively, waiting for clarity in what remains a volatile macroeconomic landscape.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Winkelmann

Stocks

Forex

BHP Group has agreed to sell a 49% stake in the inland power network used by its Western Australia iron-ore business to BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners for $2 billion.

The deal will create a trust entity for BHP's inland power infrastructure, with BHP retaining a 51% controlling stake. Under the agreement, BHP will pay the entity a tariff linked to its share of Western Australia Iron Ore's (WAIO) inland power over a 25-year period.

BHP Chief Executive Mike Henry said the transaction "enables BHP to access capital and maintain operational and strategic control of a critical part of WAIO's infrastructure."

The world's largest miner by market value is seeking to free up capital as it increases spending on new projects to boost copper production and expand into potash.

BHP's Western Australia Iron Ore business, in which the company holds an 85% stake, is one of the world's leading sources of iron ore, a key ingredient in steel production.

The transaction requires regulatory approvals and is expected to be completed toward the end of BHP's fiscal 2026, which concludes on June 30, 2026.