Copper and other base metals rose on Thursday, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and optimism over a potential trade truce between the U.S. and China.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchangeadded 0.2% to $9,695 per metric ton as of 0148 GMT.The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchangegained 0.4% to 78,450 yuan ($10,923.29) a ton."There is some optimism about a possible trade deal with China. The deadline for that is August 12th, and the reports we are seeing are that the discussions are proceeding pretty well," said Marex analyst Edward Meir.

"In other geopolitical developments (is) the possible summit meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky, which also should help weaken the dollar and give commodities a bit (of a) lift."On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. was close to a deal with China and that he would meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before the end of the year if an agreement is struck.

The dollar indexlanguished near a more than one-week low after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs data last week triggered bets for Fed rate cuts from September.A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies.Investors are closely watching the developments in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, after its El Teniente copper mine collapsed after an earthquake last week, killing six people.

Copper miner Codelco has sought permission from Chile's mining regulator to reopen a part of its flagship mine, two sources with knowledge of the matter said.Among other metals in London, aluminiumclimbed 0.9% to $2,631.50 a ton, nickelrose 0.1% to $15,145, leadgained 0.4% to $2,001.50, tinadded 0.1% to $33,380, and zincadvanced 0.7% to $2,808.SHFE aluminiumrose 1% to 20,800 yuan, nickelgained 0.4% to 121,090 yuan, leadclimbed 0.3% to 16,880 yuan, tinadded 0.1% at 267,320 yuan, and zincadvanced 1.3% to 22,610 yuan.

Source: TradingView

India's set to face a 50% tariff after the White House announced an additional 25% levy on the South Asian country Wednesday over its purchases of Russian oil. That's now among the highest duties on any of the U.S.' trading partners.New Delhi responded swiftly in a statement Wednesday, describing the U.S.' decision to raise tariffs as "unfair, unjustified and unreasonable," and that the country's imports are based on market factors and to ensure energy security for its population.

Earlier on Monday, India's Ministry of External Affairs called out what it says is selective enforcement in a statement, adding that "it is revealing that the very nations criticizing India are themselves indulging in trade with Russia." It cited data that showed the EU's trade was "significantly more" than India's total trade with Russia.And it seems that India isn't the only country on U.S. President Donald Trump's radar as he sets to punish countries that buy oil from Russia.His latest executive order also directs his administration to "determine whether any other country is directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil," and the actions, if any, that need to be taken on that country.

What you need to know today

U.S to impose 50% tariff on India over Russian oil purchases. Trump announced in an executive order Wednesday that the new 25% duties will come into effect in 21 days, while the previously announced 25% rate will kick in Thursday.Semiconductor tariffs of 100%. Unless companies can manufacture in the U.S., Trump said Wednesday that he would impose that tariff rate on imports of semiconductors and chips into the country.

U.S. stocks gain on Apple's investment. Markets gained Wednesday after Apple's shares climbed 5% on its increased U.S. manufacturing investment. The European Stoxx 600 was flat, while the Swiss Market Index fell 0.9% as Swiss officials met with their counterparts to continue tariff negotiations.

Apple commits $100 billion to U.S. expansion. Apple CEO Tim Cook and President Donald Trump unveiled the manufacturing boost Wednesday. That's on top of the $500 billion that the iPhone maker announced in February, and brings its total U.S. investment to $600 billion over the next four years.

Why India is in Trump's crosshairs when crude is not even sanctioned

India was once encouraged to buy Russian crude by the United States. It is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil, according to data from Kpler, which shows total Russian crude exports amount to around 3.35 million barrels per day, of which India takes about 1.7 million.Sara Vakhshouri, the founder and president of SVB Energy International, told CNBC the hefty duties announced by Trump are a "negotiation tactic," aimed at "reclaiming lost U.S. oil market share in India and oil export declines since 2022, and securing equivalent export of other commodity to India."

Source: CNBC

Silver prices have retraced following the initial selloff last week. Friday’s US jobs data has obviously been extensively discussed, but that was the end of the initial bearish run for silver prices.Since Friday Silver has risen around 3% but for now the bearish trend remains intact. The concern is that US rate cut expectations continue to ramp up. This continued today with news that Trump advisers are to push for a temporary Fed governor to fill the seat of resigned Fed Kugler.A short-term Fed pick would give Trump more time on the Chair choice, the Fed pick is likely to work in the government, and be previously vetted by the Senate.

Such a move may see market expectations for rate cuts ramp up even further. This could work in favor of bulls as the US dollar could come under renewed selling pressure.

Technical Analysis – Silver (XAG/USD)

From a technical standpoint, the bearish trend remains intact as long as we do not get a daily candle close above the 38.22The current move higher could just be a retracement before the next leg to the downside and a fresh lower low.There is the descending trendline which was broken and hints at further upside. The ascending trendline is also in play.This leaves a slightly confusing outlook for Silver moving forward, with the next move looking more like a coin toss at this stage.

The RSI period-14 on the daily chart has crossed above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum. However a cross back below the 50 level could be a sign that a lower low may be incoming.A lot to ponder when it comes to Silver prices moving forward. A week ago things looked a lot simpler, highlighting the various factors at play in financial markets.

Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, August 6, 2025

Source: TradingView.com

Source: OANDA

U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he could announce further tariffs on China similar to the 25% duties announced earlier on India over its purchases of Russian oil, depending on what happens.

"Could happen," Trump told reporters, after saying he expected to announce more secondary sanctions aimed at pressuring Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

He gave no further details.

"It may happen ... I can't tell you yet," Trump said. "We did it with India. We're doing it probably with a couple of others. One of them could be China."

Trump on Wednesday imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, on top of a 25% tariff announced previously, citing its continued purchases of Russian oil.

The White House order did not mention China, which is another big purchaser of Russian oil. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned China that it could also face new tariffs if it continued buying Russian oil.

Source: Reuters

The United States will impose a tariff of about 100% on semiconductor chips imported from countries not producing in America or planning to do so, President Donald Trump said.Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday the new tariff rate would apply to "all chips and semiconductors coming into the United States," but would not apply to companies that had made a commitment to manufacture in the United States or were in the process of doing so."If, for some reason, you say you're building and you don't build, then we go back and we add it up, it accumulates, and we charge you at a later date, you have to pay, and that's a guarantee," Trump added.

The comments were not a formal tariff announcement, and Trump offered no further specifics.It is not clear how many chips, or from which country, would be impacted by the new levy. Taiwanese chip contract manufacturer TSMC , opens new tab - which makes chips for most U.S. companies - has factories in the country, so its big customers such as Nvidia, opens new tab are not likely to face increased tariff costs.The AI chip giant has itself said it plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S.-made chips and electronics over the next four years. An Nvidia spokesperson declined to comment for this story.

"Large, cash-rich companies that can afford to build in America will be the ones to benefit the most. It’s survival of the biggest," said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at investment advisory firm Annex Wealth Management.Congress created a $52.7 billion semiconductor manufacturing and research subsidy program in 2022. The Commerce Department under President Joe Biden last year convinced all five leading-edge semiconductor firms to locate chip factories in the U.S. as part of the program.The department said the U.S. last year produced about 12% of semiconductor chips globally, down from 40% in 1990.

Any chip tariffs would likely target China, with whom Washington is still negotiating a trade deal."There's so much serious investment in the United States in chip production that much of the sector will be exempt," said Martin Chorzempa, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.Since chips made in China won't be exempt, chips made by SMIC or Huawei would not be either, Chorzempa said, noting that chips from these companies entering the U.S. market were mostly incorporated into devices assembled in China.

"If these tariffs were applied without a component tariff, it might not make much difference," he said.Chipmaking nations South Korea and Japan, as well as the European Union, have reached trade deals with the U.S., potentially giving them an advantage.The EU said it agreed to a single 15% tariff rate for the vast majority of EU exports, including cars, chips and pharmaceuticals. South Korea and Japan said separately that U.S. agreed not to give them worse tariff rates than other countries on chips, suggesting a 15% levy as well.

Source: Reuters

The Bank of England is set to cut interest rates to the lowest level in over two years, as its policymakers contend with a slowing economy and a jobs market rattled by higher taxes.

Markets and economists expect the UK central bank to lower the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4%, sticking to its once-a-quarter pace of easing. It will announce the decision at 12 p.m. in London, followed by a press conference led by Governor Andrew Bailey half an hour later.

The Monetary Policy Committee has maintained a cautious approach to unwinding policy restriction amid a fresh spike in inflation. Updated forecasts are expected to show stronger near-term price pressures than predicted back in May.

However, concerns over the economy are also mounting after back-to-back contractions over the spring and a hiring slowdown since employers were hit by increases in payroll taxes and the minimum wage in April. Economists expect the MPC to maintain guidance steering traders toward more gradual rate cuts.

A fifth quarter-point reduction today would take rates to the lowest since March 2023 and see the BOE pull ahead of the Federal Reserve, which has delivered 100 basis points of easing — all of it last year. On July 30, the US central bank held its benchmark rate in a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

The BOE decision is likely to expose divisions on the nine-member committee panel once again.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a three-way split with the majority supporting a quarter-point reduction, two backing a bigger half-point cut and two others wanting no change in policy. That would be a repeat of the division three months ago when the MPC last lowered rates.

Chief economist Huw Pill and external rate-setter Catherine Mann are seen as the most likely to oppose a reduction, as they did in May, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor may vote for a larger half-point cut.

The MPC is expected to leave in place guidance steering markets toward more “gradual and careful” interest-rate cuts and a meeting-by-meeting approach.

However, traders will be watching closely for any hints that rate-setters are considering a slower pace as they edge toward the end of the cutting cycle. Currently markets expect two more reductions by the end of the year, including a move on Thursday, with rates eventually settling at around 3.5% next year.

“The risks are tilted in a hawkish direction – it’s possible the committee introduces language that suggests it is considering shifting away from its current pace of reducing rates once a quarter,” said Dan Hanson, chief UK economist at Bloomberg Economics. “The implication would be that a November cut is far from a done deal.”

The BOE may tweak its forecasts after hotter-than-expected inflation since its last projections in May, driven by sharp increases in energy and food prices.

Inflation hit a 17-month high of 3.6% in June, 0.2 percentage point above the BOE projection. The bank is expected to raise its near-term forecasts, predicting price growth will peak closer to 4% this year than the 3.7% it projected in May.

While Bailey believes the current spike will be temporary, others including Pill have voiced concerns about second-round effects on wages and prices. More focus may be put on the BOE’s unemployment projections with the MPC growing concerned over the hit to jobs since Labour increased hiring costs for businesses.

Over 180,000 payrolls have been eliminated since Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves first announced the £26 billion ($35 billion) increase to employer national insurance contributions in October, pushing the jobless rate to its highest in four years.

In May, the BOE predicted growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.25% next year. A modest upgrade is possible after the economy grew faster-than-forecast in the first quarter and the bank in June informally raised its second-quarter projection from 0.1% to 0.25%.

The BOE’s latest analysis on quantitative tightening — the process of reducing the hundreds of billions of pounds of government bonds it owns — will be under the spotlight ahead of a decision on the program’s future in September.

Bailey has noted signs of strain in the long-dated bond market in recent comments after the yield on 30-year securities climbed to levels last seen in the late 1990s. That has fueled expectations that the BOE could slow sales of gilts, or skew them toward shorter-dated debt.

Currently market participants surveyed by the central bank expect the overall run-off of the BOE’s balance sheet to slow from around £100 billion a year to £75 billion, implying active sales of around £26 billion.

“Any special mention of the long-end of the gilt curve – with the MPC signalling any unwarranted tightening in long-end yields due to limited liquidity – will be important,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank. “This could set up expectations for a potential tweak to the BOE’s sales strategy in September.”

Source: Bloomberg Europe