Poland's Growth Outstrips EU And CEE Peers

Forex

Economic

Summary:

According to the flash estimate, Poland's GDP increased by 3.7%YoY in 3Q25, after a 3.3%YoY growth in 2Q25, beating other CEE countries (Czechia: 2.7%, Hungary: 0.6%) and the EU as a whole (1.5%).

Strong economic performance in 3Q25

According to the flash estimate, Poland's GDP increased by 3.7%YoY in 3Q25, after a 3.3%YoY growth in 2Q25, beating other CEE countries (Czechia: 2.7%, Hungary: 0.6%) and the EU as a whole (1.5%). A low reference base partially explains the sizeable increase in the annual growth rate due to subdued economic activity in September 2024, when the country experienced flooding, but seasonally adjusted data indicates that the pace of expansion remained at a solid 0.8%QoQ as in 2Q25.

A detailed GDP report, including its composition, will be published on 1 December, but data released so far indicate an improvement in industry vs. 2Q25, a slightly slower annual increase in retail trade, and continued recession in construction. We estimate that the services sector remained in good shape and supported GDP growth in 3Q25, but we hoped for stronger activity in this area of the economy. From the expenditure side, GDP was propelled by buoyant household consumption that probably expanded at a similar annual rate as in the previous quarter. At the same time, the expected rebound in investment activity has been delayed explained by, among other things, to the slow implementation of domestic Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) financed projects and their necessary revisions.

Growth in 2025 to reach 3.5% despite delays in fixed investment rebound

We still expect 3.5% GDP growth in Poland this year. Data released so far shows that the scenario of much stronger fixed investment performance this year is not materialising, but it is compensated by the resilience of private consumption, which is proving to be stronger than expected earlier. The timeline of RFF execution gives ground for optimistic forecasts of fixed investment in 2026.

Poland outpaces CEE pears even as conditions in European manufacturing remain soft

Poland's economy is set to maintain growth in excess of 3%, outpacing the EU average and CEE peers, which have underdelivered on GDP growth for the second year in a row. The country's robust growth is accompanied by the absence of major external or internal imbalances. The current account deficit is around 1% of GDP, while CPI inflation is close to the central bank's 2.5% target.

Substantial imbalance is observed between the public sector (high deficit) and the domestic private sector (low investment, high savings). We stick to our full-year GDP forecast at 3.5%YoY in 2025 and expect the economy to sustain a similar level of activity in 2026 (3.4%YoY).

Source: ING

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Glendon

Stocks

Economic

It's going to be a long next 10 years for investors in US stocks, according to Peter Oppenheimer.

The Goldman Sachs strategist, who correctly predicted Wall Street's underperformance this year, sees US equities continuing to lag other markets for the next decade.

Oppenheimer and his team expect the S&P 500 to achieve annual returns of 6.5% in the coming 10 years, the weakest among all regions. Emerging markets are projected to be strongest, at 10.9% a year.

After a decade of constantly superior performance, driven by a surge in technology stocks and the craze for artificial intelligence, the S&P 500 has lagged behind global peers this year. The benchmark has climbed 16%, compared with the 28% rally in a worldwide MSCI index that excludes the US. In the coming years, the strategists expect emerging-market gains to be driven by strong earnings growth in China and India. Goldman Sachs has this advice for long-term investors: "Diversify beyond the US, with a tilt toward emerging markets." —Michael Msika

On this week's Trumponomics, host Stephanie Flanders explores how Democrats are repurposing Donald Trump's 2024 campaign theme — affordability — as their own political cudgel. Listen on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The weakness in the Japanese yen is pushing the currency towards levels that have prompted authorities to step in. Traders are skeptical, though, that direct intervention will help as much this time around.

Unlike last year, when intervention took place in the runup to higher interest rates by the central bank, this time around Japan would be buying yen just as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signals her desire for a slowdown in rate increases.

Officials would also be wading into the market when Takaichi's plans to boost spending are fueling the yen's weakness. Additionally, any intervention would risk depleting Japan's foreign exchange reserves needed to help fund a US investment package to placate President Donald Trump.

"It's a different environment," said Marito Ueda at SBI FXTrade. "If Takaichi's policies head in the direction of fiscal expansion, even if the government can stop the yen's decline in the short term, it'll just go back to weakening."

The yen has fallen 4.5% against the dollar this quarter, the most among its Group of 10 peers, to about 154.

A weakening yen aids the country's mighty exporters by boosting the value of their repatriated earnings. But failing to act to limit the currency's depreciation could trigger criticism from Washington, with Trump previously complaining Japan has sought a trade advantage through foreign exchange policy. —Mia Glass and John Cheng

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Justin

Forex

Political

Economic

Global South cooperation arrangements must evolve to better respond to pressing contemporary and imminent challenges, rather than risk being irrelevant straitjackets stuck in the past.

Southeast Asia

In 1967, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) was established initially to address regional tensions following the formation of Malaysia in September 1963.

The creation of Malaysia had led to problems with the Philippines and Indonesia, while Singapore had seceded from the new confederation in August 1965.

Asean was not a Cold War creation in the same sense as the Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation (Seato), one of several regional security arrangements established by the Americans in the early 1950s, the only significant one remaining being the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato).

Asean's most significant initiative was to declare Southeast Asia a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (Zopfan) in 1973, two years before the end of the Indochina wars.

Regional economic cooperation

The region has since seen four major economic initiatives, with the first being the Asean Free Trade Area (Afta).

Afta was established at the height of the trade liberalisation zeal in the early 1990s. Beyond the initial "one-time" trade liberalisation effects, there has been little actual economic transformation since then.

Trade liberalisation mahaguru Jagdish Bhagwati's last (2008) book, Termites in the Trading System, saw preferential plurilateral and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) as "termites" undermining the World Trade Organization (WTO) promise of multilateral trade liberalisation.

While seemingly mutually beneficial, such FTAs are akin to termites that surreptitiously erode the foundations of the multilateral trading system by encouraging discrimination, thereby undermining the principle of non-discrimination.

Naive enthusiasm for all FTAs has thus actually undermined multilateralism, also triggering pushback since the late 20th century.

Following the 2008/09 global financial crisis, the G20's developed economies all raised protectionist barriers, confirming their dubious commitment to free trade.

Meanwhile, US trade policies since the Barack Obama presidency, and especially this year, have made a mockery of the WTO's commitment to the multilateralism of the1994 Marrakech Declaration.

Asymmetric financialisation

The 1997/98 Asian financial crisis should have served as a wake-up call about the dangers of financialisation, but the West dismissed it as simply due to Asian hubris.

Under managing director Michel Camdessus, International Monetary Fund (IMF) promotion of capital account liberalisation even contravened the fund's own articles of agreement.

When Japanese finance minister Kiichi Miyazawa and vice-minister of finance Eisuke Sakakibara proposed an East Asian financial rescue plan, it was soon killed by then US Treasury Deputy Secretary Larry Summers.

Eventually, the Chiang Mai Initiative was developed by Asean+3, including Japan, South Korea and China as the additional three, ensuring that bilateral swap facilities for financial emergencies have since been multilateralised.

Asean+3 later led the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, still conceived mainly in terms of regional trade liberalisation.

Non-alignment for our times

Developing relevant institutions and arrangements in our times requires us to pragmatically consider history, rather than abstract, ahistorical principles.

The year 2025 marks several significant anniversaries, most notably the end of World War II in 1945 and the 1955 Bandung Asia-Africa solidarity conference, which anticipated the formation of the non-aligned movement.

The world seems to have lost its commitment to creating the conditions for enduring peace. Despite much rhetoric, the post-World War II commitment to freedom and neutrality in the Global North has largely gone.

The world was deemed unipolar after the end of the Cold War. However, for most, it has been multipolar, with the majority of the Global South remaining non-aligned.

As for peace-making, the US' Nato allies have increasingly marginalised the United Nations and multilateralism with it. Already, the number of military interventions since the end of the Cold War exceeds those of that era.

While Asean cannot realistically lead international peace-making, it can be a much stronger voice for multilateralism, peace, freedom, neutrality, development and international cooperation.

East Asian potential

The world economy is now stagnating due to Western policies. Hence, Asean+3 has become more relevant.

Just before US President Donald Trump made his April 2 Liberation Day unilateral tariffs announcement, the governments of Japan, China and South Korea met in late March without Asean to coordinate responses despite their long history of tensions.

Asean risks becoming increasingly irrelevant, due to the limited progress since the Chiang Mai Agreement a quarter of a century ago. Worse, Asean's regional leadership has rarely gone beyond trade liberalisation, now sadly irrelevant in "post-normal" times.

Rather than risk growing irrelevance, regional cooperation needs to rise to contemporary challenges. Working closely with partners accounting for two-fifths of the world economy, Asean countries only stand to gain from broader regional cooperation.

Trump's "shock and awe" tariffs and Mar-a-Lago ambitions clearly signal that "business as usual" is over, and Washington intends to remake the world. Will East Asia rise to this challenge of our times?

Jomo Kwame Sundaram is senior adviser at Khazanah Research Institute (KRI). A former economics professor, he was United Nations assistant secretary-general for economic development. He is a recipient of the Wassily Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Gerik

Economic

Sluggish Q3 Growth Reflects Mounting Domestic Pressures

The British economy expanded by only 0.1% during the July–September quarter, missing the 0.2% growth forecast by economists and marking a sharp slowdown from the 0.3% recorded in Q2. On a monthly basis, GDP contracted by 0.1% in September following flat growth in August, which itself was revised down from a previous estimate of 0.1%.

The slowdown was driven by weakness in both services and construction sectors, along with a contraction in industrial production. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), a significant drop in car manufacturing caused in part by a five-week production halt at Jaguar Land Rover due to a cyberattack was a key contributor to the downturn. Additionally, the typically volatile pharmaceutical sector also weighed on output.

Policy Challenges Intensify Ahead of Budget Announcement

The disappointing GDP figures arrive just weeks before Finance Minister Rachel Reeves presents the Autumn Budget. Facing a sizable fiscal gap, Reeves is widely expected to introduce fresh tax hikes a move that could further suppress consumer spending and business sentiment.

In a public statement, Reeves maintained that the budget would be a step toward a “strong economy” aimed at reducing waiting lists, national debt, and the cost of living. However, investors and business leaders remain cautious, fearing that additional fiscal tightening could dampen growth prospects in early 2026.

JPMorgan’s Scott Gardner emphasized the importance of stimulating the housing market as a growth lever but warned that rising taxes could offset such momentum by curbing household consumption and services spending.

Speculation Builds Around a Potential Christmas Rate Cut

Despite fiscal headwinds, hopes for monetary easing persist. The Bank of England (BoE) left interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting, with Governor Andrew Bailey signaling a wait-and-see approach pending further inflation and labor market data.

Still, some analysts, including Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Rob Wood, believe the BoE could deliver a rate cut at its final policy meeting of the year on December 18, regardless of GDP performance. Wood argues that a contractionary budget may sway the central bank toward preemptive easing, particularly as UK growth is now trending near its estimated potential of 0.3% per quarter.

Uncertain Recovery with Mixed Signals

The UK’s near-term economic trajectory remains clouded by conflicting policy signals. While resilient output suggests the economy can absorb modest shocks, looming tax increases and fragile consumer confidence could weigh heavily on future quarters.

If the BoE cuts interest rates in December and Reeves balances tax hikes with targeted stimulus, a modest pre-Christmas rebound is possible. However, the current growth stall raises the stakes for policymakers to act decisively without stifling a recovery that appears increasingly delicate.

Source: CNBC

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Gerik

Economic

Stocks

A Historic High for the Dow Amid Market Divergence

On Wednesday, November 12, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 48,000 for the first time, marking its second consecutive record close. This gain was fueled by traditional blue-chip stocks such as Goldman Sachs, Caterpillar, and Eli Lilly representatives of banking, industrials, and healthcare. These sectors have long been pillars of the "old economy" and are heavily weighted in the price-based Dow index.

In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite, dominated by tech giants and growth-oriented firms, ended in the red despite Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rallying 9%. Declines in Oracle and Palantir overshadowed AMD’s surge. This divergence is not random but rather reflects structural differences: while the Nasdaq is weighted by market capitalization and heavily influenced by high-growth AI stocks like Nvidia, the Dow is less affected by tech due to its price-weighted methodology.

Two Markets: AI and Everything Else

The clear disparity between AI-focused tech stocks and broader industrial or financial equities reinforces the notion of a bifurcated market. Investors are now seeing two investment narratives playing out in parallel: one centered around explosive AI growth, and another focused on the resilience and profitability of legacy sectors. This split is not necessarily a red flag but signals a broader rebalancing. According to Josh Chastant of GuideStone Fund, trimming tech holdings and reallocating into overlooked sectors is a sound diversification strategy rather than a retreat from optimism.

President Donald Trump signed a bill that ends the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, securing funding through the end of January 2026. While the reopening is a relief to markets, the damage may linger. The White House warned that key economic data, such as October’s jobs and inflation reports, may not be released due to disrupted data collection efforts. Analysts, however, remain optimistic that statistical agencies can recover in time.

Anthropic Bets Big on U.S. AI Infrastructure

Adding to the AI-driven narrative, AI company Anthropic announced plans to invest $50 billion in building advanced data centers across the United States. The first custom-built facilities will be located in Texas and New York, scheduled to go live in 2026. These centers will be developed in partnership with Fluidstack, a cloud computing platform optimized for AI workloads. The scale of this investment signals confidence in the long-term AI demand curve and aims to establish the U.S. as a leader in global AI infrastructure.

With U.S. equities particularly in the tech sector perceived as overvalued, investors are increasingly eyeing international markets for diversification. UK stocks, long overshadowed by their American counterparts, are gaining interest from fund managers like Sean Peche of Ranmore, who see them as undervalued and poised for recovery.

The ‘Zombie Company’ Problem in Private Equity

In a less optimistic corner of the market, private equity is contending with a growing number of “zombie companies” firms that lack growth, barely service debt, and attract no buyers even at a discount. These entities linger on balance sheets, unable to provide returns or exits, reflecting a broader concern about excessive leverage and sluggish economic conditions outside of the AI boom.

The juxtaposition between the Dow’s rally and the Nasdaq’s struggle encapsulates the current duality in the U.S. market. Traditional sectors are regaining momentum while the tech sector especially AI faces consolidation after rapid gains. Meanwhile, macro-political events like the shutdown and long-term bets like Anthropic’s $50B investment are reshaping both investor sentiment and market structure. This divergence is not necessarily negative; rather, it highlights the importance of selective diversification and the need to look beyond just the AI narrative in portfolio strategy.

Source: CNBC

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Daniel Carter

Commodity

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, signalling a deeper surplus in 2026.

"Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards," the IEA said.

The agency expects global oil supply to grow by around 3.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 now, and 2.5 million bpd next year, each up by around 100,000 bpd on the month.

With supply outpacing demand, the IEA's November report implies that in 2026 total oil supply will be 4.09 million bpd higher than total demand, up from an implied surplus of 3.97 million bpd in its last monthly report.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Gerik

Economic

Resumption begins, but normalization will be slow

With President Donald Trump’s signature late Wednesday, the 43-day U.S. government shutdown has officially concluded, and federal employees were ordered to return to work Thursday. Yet despite this legal reopening, a full operational reboot will be staggered and slow. Agencies face widespread logistical backlogs including unpaid salaries, suspended public services, and jammed administrative systems.

Key functions such as payroll processing, grant disbursement, loan approvals, environmental permitting, and workplace inspections were all paralyzed during the shutdown. These now require time-consuming recovery steps, particularly in sectors where high volumes of citizen interaction like benefits, transportation, or regulatory reviews have generated unprocessed queues.

Back pay begins but won’t be immediate

Though a 2019 law guarantees federal employees receive back pay “at the earliest date possible,” many may have to wait. The administration targets Saturday for the first paycheck disbursements, with all payments completed by November 19. Air traffic controllers who worked without pay are promised 70% of their missed wages within 48 hours of reopening, with the remainder arriving a week later.

The Office of Personnel Management confirmed that furlough time counts as full pay status, meaning workers continued accruing vacation and sick leave. However, they were unable to use that time during the shutdown, increasing future government liabilities.

Support programs face system-wide bottlenecks

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) will also resume, but with administrative lags. States estimate they need up to a week to update records and reload benefits onto EBT cards. With only two major vendors servicing the entire national network, simultaneous demand from all 50 states may cause delays or strain system capacity.

Other critical services like data collection and rule-making are only just restarting. Routine reports on employment, prices, and production were suspended during the shutdown, and October’s inflation and jobs data will likely never be published. This data vacuum leaves policymakers especially the Federal Reserve operating without key metrics that shape monetary decisions.

Agency-level recovery times vary

Every federal department maintains a contingency plan for how to shut down and reopen operations, but most are not built for a six-week lapse. Consequently, some agencies are expected to recover faster than others. Internal tasks like rebooting IT systems, clearing mailrooms, and opening public counters will dominate the first days back.

Other functions such as federal rule-making, enforcement actions by the SEC and EPA, and maintenance at national parks also stalled during the shutdown. These may require significant time to catch up, particularly where coordination with external contractors or regulatory reviews is involved.

Economic and fiscal costs unlikely to be fully recovered

The macroeconomic cost of the shutdown is substantial. Analysts estimate the shutdown shaved between $10 billion and $15 billion off the U.S. economy every week it continued. While some activity like delayed salaries and paused government spending will be “rebound spending,” many costs are unrecoverable. These include missed business opportunities, forfeited discounts on contractor payments, emergency furlough costs, and lost permit revenue.

Policymakers also now face a less quantifiable but equally damaging consequence: reduced public confidence in administrative reliability and weakened global perception of U.S. governance stability.

While federal operations are resuming, the long road to full recovery underscores the fragility of modern bureaucratic infrastructure in the face of political dysfunction. The 43-day shutdown not only paralyzed vital services and economic reporting but also imposed deep logistical and fiscal burdens. Its effects on policymaking, worker morale, and public services will not end with the stroke of a president’s pen. The real reboot will take weeks, and the reputational and economic damage may last even longer.