Nasdaq 100 Rebounds As Traders Anticipate End of The US Shutdown

Stocks

Political

Summary:

As the chart shows, the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) has started the week on a positive note amid growing expectations that the longest government shutdown in US history may soon come to an end.

According to Reuters, a bill has been introduced in the Senate proposing amendments to extend government funding until 30 January. The news acted as a bullish catalyst for equity markets. Still, the question remains – is the risk truly behind us?

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100

Analysing the hourly chart of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) on 4 November, we:

→ Drew an ascending channel;

→ Noted signs of momentum exhaustion, as mentioned in our previous headline.

Since then, price action has evolved as follows:

→ The lower boundary of the channel provided support (1), prompting a brief rebound;

→ The 25,770 level acted as resistance (2) on two occasions, strengthening the bears' confidence to push for a downside breakout — which ultimately succeeded.

The index's subsequent movements have now more clearly outlined the formation of a descending channel (shown in red).

From the demand-side perspective:

→ After a false bearish breakout below 24,680 (showing characteristics of a Liquidity Grab pattern), the market staged an aggressive rally from point B;

→ Today's session opened with a bullish gap, and the price has moved above the red median line.

From the supply-side perspective:

→ The 25,500 level, where sellers gained control during the previous channel breakout, may now act as resistance;

→ If the A→B move is viewed as an impulse, today's rally appears to be a corrective rebound consistent with Fibonacci proportions — suggesting that downward momentum could resume within the red channel.

Source: FXOpen

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Gerik

Economic

Lending Revival Signals Policy Softening, Not Deregulation

China’s major internet firms including Ant Group, WeBank, ByteDance, and Meituan are cautiously resuming consumer lending operations after years of regulatory repression. This shift reflects what industry insiders interpret as a more accommodative stance from regulators, driven in part by the government’s urgency to stimulate consumption during an economic slowdown and a tense trade climate with the United States.

The recent rollout of consumer-loan interest subsidies, which included both traditional and internet-backed lenders, has been viewed as a signal that Beijing is prepared to tolerate if not actively support a measured return of fintech-driven credit. According to UBS, online platform lending is projected to grow 7.6% in 2025 to 5.4 trillion yuan (approximately $758 billion), with an annual growth rate of 7.4% expected through 2029.

This renewed expansion marks a structural pivot from what was once a restrictive environment following the dramatic 2020 crackdown, which began with the suspension of Ant Group’s IPO and continued with sweeping reforms across the fintech landscape.

From Crackdown to Coordination: A Shift in Strategy

The fintech sector’s former growth model characterized by minimal oversight and rapid scaling was dismantled as Beijing sought to curb systemic risk. Platforms were ordered to restructure into financial holding entities, subject to higher capital requirements and stricter consumer data use policies.

By 2023, regulators confirmed that restructuring efforts were complete for 14 major platforms. But despite regulatory compliance, firms remained hesitant until a series of high-profile engagements between Chinese leadership and private-sector executives, including Alibaba’s Jack Ma, signaled a new chapter in state-business coordination.

Industry analysts now describe the environment as one of “normalized regulatory oversight,” a middle ground between unrestrained expansion and regulatory suffocation. The government's implicit support through consumer subsidies and inclusion of platforms in lending programs suggests fintech is once again being positioned as a vital tool to drive domestic demand.

However, this is a correlated policy alignment rather than a causal green light for unrestricted lending. The authorities remain highly alert to financial instability, and any significant rise in defaults may provoke another tightening cycle.

Demand Surges, But Defaults Erode Stability

On the consumer side, the appetite for online loans is clearly resurging. Platforms are once again aggressively marketing their services, often highlighting ease of approval and flexible repayment terms. For middle-income consumers like Shanghai resident Yang Dongdong, who took her first online loan to furnish a new home, the appeal lies in convenience and speed.

Yet not all borrowers are using credit prudently. Some, like Max Luo and Liao Kui, have fallen into speculative traps or debt spirals. Their stories highlight a fundamental risk: easy lending terms may encourage financial overreach, particularly in an environment where wages are stagnant and job security is weak.

Data from the Banking Credit Asset Registration and Transfer Center show that 74.3 billion yuan of non-performing loans were put up for sale in Q1 2025 a 190% year-on-year increase with consumer loans accounting for 70% of this total. Gavekal Dragonomics estimates that 5–7% of Chinese adults may have already defaulted or missed repayments on loans of any kind.

These figures expose a potential causal relationship between fintech-led lending resurgence and consumer financial fragility, particularly when credit is used for speculation or refinancing, rather than direct consumption.

Firms Weigh Risk and Opportunity

While ByteDance has aggressively ramped up lending this year, Tencent remains restrained, reportedly discussing ambitious goals internally but refraining from aggressive implementation. This variation in strategy reflects divergent risk tolerances: firms are weighing short-term profitability against long-term exposure to policy reversal and reputational damage.

Despite government signals of leniency, market participants remain vigilant. One executive from a top three internet finance firm remarked that regulators are unlikely to tolerate another wave of destabilizing defaults. This echoes a sentiment that expansion is permitted but conditional.

The sector is currently balancing between policy alignment and market risk. Subsidies and broader oversight have created an enabling environment, but firms are not blind to the fact that a sudden shift in official sentiment could reintroduce the rigid restrictions of the past few years.

Strategic Growth Amid Fragile Fundamentals

The cautious resurgence of consumer lending by China’s internet giants reflects a recalibrated relationship between state and platform capital. Beijing’s current economic strategy appears to welcome fintech participation in supporting domestic demand, provided that systemic risk is controlled.

However, early warning signs rising default rates, loan misuse, and over-indebtedness underscore the fragility of this recovery. The correlation between policy easing and credit expansion is clear, but whether it can sustain growth without triggering another wave of financial instability remains uncertain.

In essence, China’s fintech firms are no longer constrained by regulatory walls, but by the need to self-regulate against the possibility of renewed intervention. Their next chapter will be defined not just by how fast they grow, but by how responsibly they lend.

Source: Reuters

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Golden Gleam

Commodity

Technical Analysis

On Monday, gold advanced by more than 1% to 4,050 USD per ounce, reaching a fresh two-week high. The rally was fuelled by mounting concerns over the health of the US economy.

A softening US dollar provided further support for the precious metal, enhancing the affordability of dollar-denominated assets for international buyers.

Data released on Friday revealed that the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index had fallen to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years. This decline is largely attributed to the ongoing US government shutdown, which has now become the longest in the nation's history. Investors are closely monitoring the situation as the US Senate moves closer to approving a Democratic-backed proposal to reopen the government.

Amid the economic uncertainty, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move remain divided. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently priced at approximately 67%, unchanged from the end of last week.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming a consolidation range around 3,988 USD. A breakout to the upside is expected to initiate a growth wave towards 4,075 USD, which may then be followed by a decline to 4,020 USD (testing the level from below). A subsequent breakdown from this range could extend the correction towards 3,660 USD, where the downward move is anticipated to conclude. This would potentially set the stage for a new upward wave targeting 4,400 USD. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero and pointing upward, suggesting continued near-term bullish momentum.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market is also consolidating around 3,988 USD. An upward breakout is likely to propel prices towards 4,075 USD, after which a decline to at least 4,020 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, as its signal line is positioned above 80 and appears poised to reverse downward towards 20, indicating potential for a near-term pullback.

Conclusion

Gold is trading at a two-week high, supported by economic concerns and a weaker US dollar. While the near-term technical structure suggests potential for further gains towards 4,075 USD, a subsequent correction towards 4,020 USD is anticipated. The broader outlook remains constructive, with a deeper corrective move towards 3,660 USD expected to present a buying opportunity ahead of a potential resumption of the broader uptrend.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Gold Strengthens on Economic Weakness and Dovish Fed Expectations

Gold climbed for a second consecutive session on Monday, with spot prices rising to $4,071.55 an ounce in Asia. This rebound follows last week’s muted performance and reflects renewed investor positioning as economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy may be losing momentum. The rally is largely driven by weak consumer sentiment and private labor data that paint a sluggish picture of household and employment strength.

Gold’s rise of nearly 2% marks a notable recovery from its recent retreat. Prices had dropped roughly 7% since peaking at an all-time high above $4,380 in mid-October. Still, the year-to-date gains remain substantial, with gold up more than 50%, sustained by macroeconomic uncertainty, robust central bank buying, and persistent geopolitical risk.

The upward price movement demonstrates a classic correlation between deteriorating economic data and increased safe-haven demand. More importantly, this suggests a cause-effect dynamic in which the prospect of monetary easing made likelier by weak data directly boosts gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Dovish Signals Amplified by Shutdown-Induced Data Vacuum

Recent labor and sentiment data have added fuel to expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its next meeting in December. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index has fallen to near-record lows, echoing growing concern among households about inflation and economic direction. A separate private-sector employment report also hinted at a weakening labor market.

However, the government shutdown has significantly delayed the release of key economic data, leaving the Fed with an incomplete view of the economy. This constraint has forced policymakers to rely more heavily on secondary indicators and qualitative data. With moderate Senate Democrats reportedly backing a plan to reopen the government, investor attention is pivoting to what a data restart might reveal and whether it would justify immediate monetary easing.

According to Riya Singh of Emkay Global, while the potential resolution of the shutdown could slightly reduce gold’s momentum, the underlying economic fragility remains the primary force behind the current rally.

Continued Central Bank Buying Bolsters Market Confidence

One of the most structurally supportive factors for gold remains the aggressive accumulation by central banks led by the People’s Bank of China, which has now added gold to its reserves for 12 consecutive months. This consistent buying trend suggests a deliberate shift by major sovereigns toward asset diversification and longer-term inflation hedging.

Additionally, recent inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) underscore rising retail and institutional demand for the metal, particularly amid mounting recession risks. This multi-channel demand pattern reinforces gold’s role not only as a defensive asset but also as a liquidity vehicle in volatile conditions.

Shutdown Resolution Shifts Focus to Fed Policy

According to Vasu Menon of OCBC, if the U.S. government reopens and delayed economic data is released, the market may quickly pivot to pricing in a rate-cut timeline more precisely. That, in turn, would sharpen expectations for the Fed’s next move, especially if indicators point to a broader economic slowdown.

This relationship is nuanced. While resolution of the shutdown removes one source of uncertainty, it may paradoxically support gold if the incoming data confirms a slowdown, thereby making a rate cut not just likely, but urgent.

Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained steady, suggesting the dollar's strength was not a significant counterweight to gold's rise on the day. Silver also surged 2.4%, while platinum and palladium registered additional gains, indicating broader momentum in precious metals.

Weak Data and Policy Uncertainty Keep Gold in Rally Mode

Gold’s latest rally underscores the asset’s sensitivity to real-time shifts in U.S. macroeconomic sentiment and monetary policy expectations. Although optimism about ending the shutdown exists, the key drivers for gold remain elevated: soft labor data, low consumer confidence, and delayed economic visibility. Together, these increase the likelihood of a dovish Fed response a development that continues to support gold's upward trajectory.

As central banks continue to buy and investors hedge against policy missteps and inflation persistence, gold remains well-positioned in the short to medium term, particularly if hard data confirms that the U.S. economy is indeed approaching a slowdown.

Source: Bloomberg

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Daniel Carter

Economic

India is considering a proposal to allow sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of the sweetener in 2025-26, as the outlook for an abundant harvest raises concerns about a looming glut.

A decision on the proposal from India's food ministry is likely to be announced soon, according to people familiar with the matter, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private. That would be higher than the export quota for 2024-25, which was 1 million tons.

The food ministry didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

While the higher allocation would help alleviate a domestic surplus, additional supply in the global market could weigh further on benchmark prices. Futures in New York have declined 27% this year due to rising output and lackluster demand from key importers such as Indonesia and China.

Industry group Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association recently urged the government to allow local millers to export 2 million tons of sugar to avert a domestic glut, and before supplies from Brazil's new crop — the world's largest producer — hit the market in April 2026.

Officials in New Delhi signaled in September that the South Asian nation had room to increase shipments in 2025-26 based on industry estimates. India introduced a quota system in 2022-23 after late rains cut production and squeezed supply for the domestic market.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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ING

Forex

Economic

USD: Thanksgiving focuses the minds

Developments over the weekend hint at a path to ending the US government shutdown. It seems the prospect of massive flight delays around Thanksgiving and the delay in food aid payments has prompted a group of moderate Democrats to back a proposed compromise bill in the Senate. The compromise is far from meeting the full Democratic demands of a delay in the end of Obamacare healthcare subsidies, and Democrats in the House may still reject the compromise. But the next 48 hours in Congress should tell us whether this initiative has legs. US equity futures are marked close to 1% higher on the news, and Asian equity futures have had a good Monday – helped in part by a proposed dividend tax cut in Korea.

FX markets have responded by taking the risk-sensitive Australian dollar close to 0.5% higher. Remember, we said last week that a cross-rate like AUD/JPY had the highest correlation with the US Nasdaq index, which is marked some 1.2% higher today. USD/JPY is pushing over 154 again, and the prospect of a December Bank of Japan rate hike is being swamped by the use of the yen as a funding currency.

While some might argue that the end of the shutdown could be a risk-on, dollar-negative impulse for the FX markets, its impact may be more mixed. Late last week, the dollar was under pressure on job layoffs and rhetoric that the US economy could contract in the fourth quarter should the shutdown extend. At the same time, Friday's release of poor US consumer sentiment data was read as a dollar negative. Progress to end the shutdown may be felt more by risk-sensitive FX cross rates than the dollar.

Away from politics, it is an exceptionally quiet week for US data, and tomorrow the US observes the Veterans' Day public holiday. Where there is data, the focus will be on tomorrow's release of the NFIB small business optimism index. Plus, there are quite a few Federal Reserve speakers. The probability of a December 25bp Fed cut has dropped to 64%. And without US data, that probability may drop close to 50% as Fed speakers generally point to the need to go slow in cutting rates.

If last week's 100.36 high in DXY is to prove significant, it should not really be making it back above the 99.90/100.00 area now.

EUR: Rally needs a helping hand

EUR/USD is becalmed after finding support below 1.15 last week. Most probably think that 1.15 proves the bottom of the range, but the rally needs a helping hand. One source of that could be an end to the government shutdown and the release of delayed US data, such as the September or October US non-farm payrolls report. But frankly, that feels like clutching at straws as we start the week.

In terms of eurozone data this week, we've got some investor sentiment data both in the form of the Sentix data at 10:30am CET today and the German ZEW tomorrow. And later this week, we should also see third-quarter eurozone GDP data confirmed at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.

Again, if last week's 1.1470 low is to prove significant, EUR/USD should somehow find support at 1.1515/1530 through the early part of this week.

GBP: Tomorrow's jobs data should weigh

EUR/GBP is back below 0.88 again as GBP/USD seems to find good demand under 1.31. We still think the prospects of a December 25bp cut from the Bank of England are underpriced. The market now attaches just a 60% probability to such an outcome.

Feeding into the BoE story will be tomorrow's release of the September wage data. This is expected to slow further and give the BoE greater confidence that inflation is less persistent than first thought.

Expect EUR/GBP to meet good demand at 0.8750/60 should it make it that low. We prefer levels above 0.88 now.

CEE: From central bank meetings to inflation prints

After a busy week of central bank meetings, attention will shift to inflation figures in the CEE region. Tomorrow, October's data will be released in Hungary, where we expect only a small change from 4.3% to 4.4% year-on-year. Underlying price pressures still do not favour a change in monetary policy, as we see core inflation moving above 4% again. In the Czech Republic, final inflation figures will also be released, providing a detailed breakdown.

On Wednesday, Romania will also release October inflation, which we expect to slow down slightly from 9.9% to 9.7%, after a September peak. The National Bank of Romania will also make a decision on the same day, but that should be a non-event with rates unchanged at 6.50%.

On Thursday and Friday, Poland and Romania will release third-quarter GDP figures, where we expect some recovery in both cases. On Friday, the Czech National Bank will release the minutes of its last meeting, and Turkey will release inflation expectations.

CEE currencies have had a decent week, with the Hungarian forint remaining the leader of the pack with new highs on Friday. EUR/USD reversal provides something of a boost for the region, while the market is in no hurry to price in more rate cuts following last week's central bank meetings in the Czech Republic and Poland last week. EUR/HUF approached 384 on Friday, and the forint rally seems too fast for us.

On the other hand, on Friday, we saw talks between US President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán providing an exemption from US sanctions on Russian energy, which should be good news for the markets. We therefore remain slightly bullish on HUF, but it would not be surprising to see some correction of Friday's rally today. Overall, though, the conditions for the CEE region remain slightly bullish in our opinion, and we could see some gains this week as well.

Source: ING

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Winkelmann

Forex

Political

Economic

U.S. exporters of agricultural goods to China are optimistic that trade between the two countries will return to normalcy after a framework agreement reached last month by their leaders, according to several exporters and industry officials.

The mood this year in the U.S. pavilion at the China International Import Expo (CIIE), China's largest import expo, which began on November 5 and wraps up in Shanghai on Monday, is positive.

"I think people are very hopeful," Jeffrey Lehman, chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, which counts over 1,000 companies among its members, told Reuters at the U.S. Pavilion, which housed exhibits from industry bodies dealing in wine, ginseng, potatoes and more, and was 50% larger than last year's.

"I think the reason why they're here is because they want to engage with new customers. They want to find new opportunities for partnership, and I think they're here because they think that's going to happen," he added.

CIIE kicked off just a week after a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump in South Korea that led to a framework agreement to roll back a number of tariffs and export control measures that had been put into place this year, including some that had overtly impacted exhibitors of agricultural products such as soybeans and sorghum.

"We just had this successful meeting in Busan, and so we're celebrating that, but (we) had plans to come even before that meeting. I think that's important to note that we didn't give up on the relationship, that we were working to maintain and continue to strengthen the relationship, even if there were some troubles," said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

China had shunned soybean purchases from the U.S. 2025 harvest amid rising trade tensions between the two countries but has resumed purchases recently.

Mark Wilson, chairman of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council, pointed to recent shipments of soybeans and sorghum bought by China as a positive signal for future trade returning to normal. Prior to this year, China accounted for 95% of the U.S. export market for sorghum, he added.

"I do have hope that they continue talking, because if they can continue talking, they can hopefully work things out, because that's what it takes," Wilson said.

CHINA'S EXPANDING TRADE SURPLUS

Despite optimism from the U.S. agricultural associations in Shanghai, analysts say the latest trade détente hammered out by Xi and Trump may be no more than a fragile truce in a trade war with root causes still unresolved.

U.S. soybeans still face a 13% tariff, which analysts say makes U.S. shipments to China too expensive for commercial buyers, compared to Brazilian alternatives.

CIIE was launched under President Xi Jinping in 2018 to promote China's free trade credentials and counter criticism of its trade surplus with many countries.

But the expo has its sceptics, as the country's trade surpluses with other markets have only grown in the years since.

China's trade surplus is set to exceed last year's record of roughly $1 trillion as exporters offset a plunge in U.S. sales due to higher U.S. tariffs by selling more to the rest of the world, often at a loss in pursuit of market share.

More than 155 countries, regions and organisations participated in this year's CIIE, the commerce ministry said. Over 4,100 overseas enterprises took part, with U.S. companies maintaining the largest exhibition area for the seventh consecutive year.

This year's expo generated intended turnover of $83.49 billion, an increase of 4.4% over last year and a record high, state media reported.