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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6857.13
6857.13
6857.13
6865.94
6827.13
+7.41
+ 0.11%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47850.93
47850.93
47850.93
48049.72
47692.96
-31.96
-0.07%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23505.13
23505.13
23505.13
23528.53
23372.33
+51.04
+ 0.22%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.850
98.930
98.850
98.980
98.740
-0.130
-0.13%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16578
1.16587
1.16578
1.16715
1.16408
+0.00133
+ 0.11%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33556
1.33565
1.33556
1.33622
1.33165
+0.00285
+ 0.21%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4224.31
4224.65
4224.31
4230.62
4194.54
+17.14
+ 0.41%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.448
59.478
59.448
59.469
59.187
+0.065
+ 0.11%
--

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Kremlin Aide Ushakov Says USA Kushner Is Working Very Actively On Ukrainian Settlement

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Norway To Acquire 2 More Submarines, Long-Range Missiles, Daily Vg Reports

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Ucb Sa Shares Open Up 7.3% After 2025 Guidance Upgrade, Top Of Bel 20 Index

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Shares In Italy's Mediobanca Down 1.3% After Barclays Cuts To Underweight From Equal-Weight

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Stats Office - Austrian November Wholesale Prices +0.9% Year-On-Year

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Britain's FTSE 100 Up 0.15%

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Europe's STOXX 600 Up 0.1%

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Taiwan November PPI -2.8% Year-On-Year

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Stats Office - Austrian September Trade -230.8 Million EUR

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Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves Revised To Chf 724906 Million At End Of October - SNB

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Swiss National Bank Forex Reserves At Chf 727386 Million At End Of November - SNB

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Shanghai Warehouse Rubber Stocks Up 8.54% From Week Earlier

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Turkey's Main Banking Index Up 2%

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French October Trade Balance -3.92 Billion Euros Versus Revised -6.35 Billion Euros In September

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Kremlin Aide Says Russia Is Ready To Work Further With Current USA Team

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Kremlin Aide Says Russia And USA Are Moving Forward In Ukraine Talks

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Shanghai Rubber Warehouse Stocks Up 7336 Tons

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Shanghai Tin Warehouse Stocks Up 506 Tons

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief Malhotra: Goal Is To Have Inflation Be Around 4%

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Ukmto Says Master Has Confirmed That The Small Crafts Have Left The Scene, Vessel Is Proceeding To Its Next Port Of Call

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          Brent: Slips into Q4 on Supply Fears

          FXTM

          Commodity

          Summary:

          Brent ↓17% in Q3

          The past few months have been rough and rocky for oil benchmarks.

          Crude and Brent shed over 16% in Q3 due to expectations around OPEC+ bringing back production while a slowdown in China rubbed salt into the wound.
          Brent: Slips into Q4 on Supply Fears_1
          Oil has already entered October on the back foot, falling 1% thanks to the bearish market sentiment.
          Many forces are set to influence prices, ranging from China’s stimulus plans, a return of Libya’s oil production, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and bets around lower US interest rates.
          This potent cocktail may translate to significant price swings in Q4.
          Regarding Libya, the producer is preparing to restore output after a month-long shutdown. This is likely to fuel concerns over supply at a time when OPEC+ may move ahead with planned production increases in December.
          The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on Wednesday 2nd October is expected to conclude with no policy changes. However, any hints of further delays to the planned production increase beyond December may support oil.
          Also, watch out for the EIA data on Wednesday and US jobs report on Friday which could inject oil benchmarks with more volatility.
          As covered in our week ahead report, the US jobs report has the potential to impact Fed cut cuts.
          Note: Lower interest rates could stimulate economic growth, which fuels oil demand. Lower interest rates may also lead to a weaker dollar, which boosts oil which is priced in dollars.
          Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves on Brent of as much as 0.4% or declines of 1.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

          Looking at the technicals…

          Prices are under pressure on the daily charts with Brent respecting a bearish channel.
          There have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while the MACD trades to the downside. However, daily support can be seen around the $70.80 level.
          A solid breakdown and daily close below $70.80
          could send prices back toward $68.80 and the levels not seen
          since December 2021at $67.00 Should $70.80
          prove reliable support, this could trigger a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $72.30 and $75.00.
          Brent: Slips into Q4 on Supply Fears_2
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Alternative Views: Immigration ‘counter Setting’ Scam Just The Tip of The Iceberg of Abuses at Entry Points

          Cohen

          Economic

          The term “counter setting” may be new to many Malaysians, but it is very familiar to undocumented foreign workers. The counter setting scam in which certain immigration officers linked to labour supply rings let in job-seeking foreigners at airports and other checkpoints has been going on for years and contributed to the large number of undocumented foreign workers in the country. For sure, the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission’s (MACC) seizure of RM800,000 from the homes of two junior immigration officers is just the tip of the iceberg.

          Corrupt Immigration Department officers are said to reap millions annually from this scam. They work hand in hand with labour agents to facilitate the entry and exit of undocumented foreign workers. The modus operandi of these syndicates, as disclosed by MACC, is as follows: It starts with foreign workers who want to work in Malaysia but are unable to get the necessary documents. They contact local agents who arrange with certain immigration officers to set up specific dates for their arrival.

          Upon arrival, the foreign workers are told to go to specific counters being manned by the compromised immigration officers who are supplied with pictures of the foreign workers in question. Entry documents are stamped and the foreign worker enters the country seeking employment.

          A similar modus operandi is at play for undocumented foreign workers leaving the country. When an undocumented foreign worker wants to go home, he or she gets a travel document from their embassy in Malaysia. Under normal procedure, these foreign workers undergo a biometric test at the immigration exit point where their fingerprints are recorded. They pay a fine and leave the country and cannot return because they have been blacklisted.

          But a number leave Malaysia with the intention of returning. These foreign workers pay agents who take them to certain immigration counters to process their exit. At the point of departure, they do not undergo the biometric test, so they are not blacklisted. Hence, they are able to return with a fresh set of documents from their country of origin.

          This scheme has reportedly been going on for years. The undocumented workers do not fear the prospect of serving a jail sentence or paying a hefty fine when they leave the country. They just pay agents who set counters to process their exit documents. A few months or a year later, they are back in the country with new travel documents.

          Last week, MACC arrested 49 immigration officers, someone from the police force and 10 agents for allegedly colluding to set counters. According to MACC, they seized a total of RM800,000 in cash from the homes of two relatively low-ranking immigration officers. One can only imagine how much someone higher up would have pocketed over the years to facilitate counter setting.

          The swoop by MACC will not stop the practice of counter setting though. It will only disrupt the scheme until the heat dissipates, then it will resume. This is because the amount of money to be made illegally easily runs into millions and is simply irresistible.

          Malaysia has 143 entry points via sea, air and land that are primarily manned by the Immigration Department and Customs Department. Come next month, a new agency called the Malaysia Checkpoint and Border Agency (MCBA) will enter the fray to oversee operations at these entry points.

          Director general Datuk Seri Hazani Ghazali, who was handpicked to lead MCBA in January this year, is reported to have said that the agency will take over the operations at the 143 entry points in stages beginning next month.

          Hazani was the director of Internal Security and Public Order in Bukit Aman and before that, he was the commander of the Eastern Sabah Security Command (ESSCOM) following the Lahad Datu incursion in 2013.

          The bill to set up MCBA was passed in July and the agency’s primary function is to coordinate the security and enforcement operations of six ministries and MACC at the 143 entry points in stages. The six ministries are defence, finance, agriculture and food security, health, transport and natural resources and environmental sustainability.

          Essentially, MCBA will be the single agency to coordinate and monitor the work of 20 enforcement agencies, including the Immigration Department and Customs Department. MCBA will oversee the movement of people, any kinds of goods and vehicles and the issuance of permits at the entry points.

          What’s interesting is that the scope of MCBA’s functions include undertaking surveillance work and gathering intelligence for purposes of enhancing border control. It essentially is the police of enforcement agencies at entry points.

          The abuse of power is not only in the Immigration Department. In March this year, MACC hauled up 34 officers from the Customs Department at the Kuala Lumpur International Cargo Complex in Sepang for allegedly facilitating the smuggling of contraband, causing the government to lose an estimated RM2 billion in unpaid duties over two years.

          The customs officers are suspected to have received bribes of RM4.7 million during the period.

          The amount of money that changes hands at border entry points is huge. It is far more than MACC’s biggest seizure of money and assets in Sabah in October 2016, in what is famously known as the Sabah Watergate scandal. MACC recovered RM61.6 million in hard cash, traced another RM30 million to foreign banks and seized luxury goods and items worth several million more. Three people, including two former top officials from the Sabah Waterworks Department, are facing 37 charges of money laundering involving cash and savings of RM61.6 million.

          The monetary rewards to enforcement officers for turning a blind eye at entry points is so lucrative that it is difficult to stop the abuse. Whether MCBA’s entry as the coordinating agency will change this situation is left to be seen.

          Source: Theedgemarkets

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Significant Policy Shift - A New Dawn for China's Economy?

          Pepperstone

          Economic

          Central Bank

          On September 24, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, injecting liquidity into the banking system and launching an 800 billion yuan special relending plan aimed at supporting the stock market.
          Just two days later, during the Politburo meeting in September, policymakers clearly stated their intention to prevent a decline in the real estate market, proposing adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and lowering existing mortgage rates, thus instilling hope for a recovery in the property sector.
          In light of these significant positive developments, the risk markets reacted enthusiastically. Between the adjustment of monetary policy and September 30, the Hang Seng Index soared nearly 16% over a brief span of just five trading days. Meanwhile, the CN50, which is more sensitive to changes in Chinese policies, surged by an impressive 25%, and the CSI 300 even reached its highest level since 2008.
          Significant Policy Shift - A New Dawn for China's Economy?_1
          As bullish traders actively bet on a recovery of the Chinese economy, we can’t help but ponder: What factors contributed to this sudden and large-scale policy adjustment? Will this round of stimulus be more effective in addressing the fundamental issues plaguing economic development compared to previous measures? How long can the robust upward trend in the stock market be sustained? What potential risk events should we keep an eye on in the future?

          Deflation Drags Growth: Re-Inflation as the Policy Core

          The Politburo meeting in September and the new round of stimulus measures undeniably represent a significant policy pivot, fundamentally reflecting the increasing urgency of Chinese authorities to control deflation and achieve re-inflation.
          In my view, many of China’s current economic challenges are closely tied to deflationary effects. For instance, deflation has contributed to a slowdown in economic growth, with GDP failing to reach the 5% target in the second quarter and the manufacturing and service PMIs remaining in contraction territory as of August. This has been accompanied by rising youth unemployment and a tendency for residents to save rather than spend, driven by the prevailing economic downturn.
          Regarding social welfare, local government revenues and broad expenditures have been well below budget since the beginning of the year. Some regions may be facing significant financial pressure, with certain institutions cutting civil servant salaries and even suspending basic social expenditures.
          In the real estate sector, the economic weakness caused by deflation has led to continuous declines in housing prices. However, due to persistent pessimism towards the housing market, falling prices have not stimulated demand; instead, they have resulted in a tendency for people to adopt a wait-and-see approach, creating a vicious cycle.
          To change this situation, the Chinese authorities are now focusing on stabilizing and supporting the stock market through monetary easing policies and liquidity injections, aiming to boost consumer demand and cushion the downturn in real estate.

          Short-Term Market Sentiment Boost, Implementation Details Awaited

          Over the past year and a half, China has gradually rolled out a series of policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market; however, overall conditions seem to show little significant improvement. I believe that the latest round of support measures has somewhat curtailed the vicious cycle of declining asset prices and weak market sentiment.
          Nevertheless, until the specific details of policy implementation, or at least a roadmap for advancement, are clarified, the effectiveness of these measures in revitalizing the real estate market may be quite limited.
          Concerns about the transmission effect of policies on the real estate market primarily center around two aspects.
          First, local governments lack the motivation and authority to stabilize housing prices through necessary “non-market mechanisms.” Recall that when authorities introduced the real estate relending program in May, public expectations were quite high. However, as the program progressed, we found that rental income was far from sufficient to cover interest payments and operating costs, thereby exacerbating local government debt pressures.
          Therefore, I believe that to achieve a recovery in the real estate market, the central government needs to intervene appropriately and implement effective regulations, rather than relying on one problem to solve another. While we have yet to see any specific plans in this regard.
          Second, since 2023, the PBoC has lowered interest rates five times and implemented several rounds of policy easing measures, including reducing down payment ratios and lowering housing provident fund loan rates. Although interest rate cuts by developed markets central banks like the Fed and the ECB have provided some flexibility for China’s policy adjustments, the market remains concerned that the current space for monetary easing may be limited, and the policy measures could be relatively mild.

          Long-Term Stock Market Growth Relies on Macroeconomic Recovery

          After the rapid rise in both the mainland and Hong Kong markets, most traders are caught in a dilemma of fearing adjustments if they chase prices too high, while also worrying about missing out if they don’t act. Considering that on the last trading day before the “Golden Week,” buying activity continued to dominate the China-related indices, the slightly cooled sentiment upon reopening could provide a second wave of momentum for prices.
          Thus, I believe that shorting against the trend is quite challenging at this moment. The authorities’ commitment to providing “unlimited” funds to boost the stock market is likely to create a positive impact on market sentiment in the short term, warranting attention to bullish opportunities.
          On one hand, sectors sensitive to declining interest rates, such as the internet and new energy vehicles, are worth watching; on the other hand, sectors with more certain shareholder returns, such as high-dividend stocks, along with the newly emphasized trends of domestic demand and international expansion, also present current upside opportunities.
          Nevertheless, the long-term sustainability of the relevant indices and their rebound potential still depend on the macroeconomic recovery. A single interest rate cut is unlikely to resolve demographic challenges.
          As previously mentioned, I believe that China’s persistent deflationary phenomenon stems from a growth model that emphasizes production over consumption. In other words, China’s “dual-speed growth” model relies on support from exports and industry, while domestic demand and real estate are dragging down overall economic development. If this economic development paradigm does not change, the speed of recovery and the duration of the bull market will be significantly constrained.

          Key Concerns and Potential Risks

          As the public gradually interprets the policy guidelines, the scale and specifics of the upcoming stimulus measures become crucial.
          The NPC Standing Committee meeting scheduled for October may provide relevant information to the market, including details on swap tools and relending plans. Given the financial conditions of local governments, we also look forward to the central government announcing a supplementary budget to expand the consumption replacement program, promote social spending, and alleviate the debt burden on local governments.
          I firmly believe that the key to alleviating the difficulties in the real estate market lies in restoring confidence in economic development and reducing precautionary savings, enabling the public to spend with peace of mind. Therefore, the fiscal support during the March 2025 NPC meeting in the housing and social welfare sectors deserves close attention.
          On the flip side, excessive government intervention may raise concerns among traders about liquidity. This is particularly pertinent for the Hong Kong market, which is more reliant on foreign capital, potentially leading to international capital outflows.
          From an external market perspective, the risks associated with the U.S. elections cannot be overlooked. While Chinese authorities actively promote stimulus policies, the election outcomes will create uncertainties regarding trade tariffs, investment restrictions, and supply chain de-risking for China, leading to fluctuations in the stock market.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Mind the Gap: Gauging Fiscal-Monetary Tensions through Fiscal R-Star

          CEPR

          Economic

          By introducing a new r-star concept for fiscal policy that can be compared to monetary r-star, this column presents a new framework for measuring fiscal-monetary tensions. Based on 140 years of data for 16 advanced economies, fiscal-monetary tensions are currently at highs not seen since World War II. Higher tensions are found to be historically associated with a host of adverse macroeconomic outcomes; therefore, strong policy actions – including fiscal consolidation – are needed to help rebuild policy space and attenuate fiscal-monetary tensions.
          The fault lines between monetary and fiscal policies have grown since the COVID-19 pandemic (Blanchard 2023, Gopinath 2023a, 2023b). The steep tightening of monetary policy has sharply increased government borrowing costs (Adrian, 2023), at a time when fiscal deficits and debt levels remain on an upward trajectory (Figure 1). Continued loose fiscal policy could also fuel inflationary pressures, complicating monetary policy.
          Mind the Gap: Gauging Fiscal-Monetary Tensions through Fiscal R-Star_1
          To borrow a term from Disyatat and Borio (2021), the ‘corridor of stability’ between fiscal and monetary policies is shrinking.
          But by how much? And what are the macroeconomic implications of potential tensions between fiscal and monetary policy? In a recent paper (Bolhuis et al. 2024), we answer these questions.

          Some motivating evidence for growing fiscal-monetary tensions

          Fiscal-monetary tensions may not necessarily be high even in an environment of elevated interest rates. This is because the fiscal authority can undertake fiscal consolidation to ensure debt sustainability. In other words, higher interest costs can be offset by more restrictive fiscal policy, thereby preventing the debt trajectory from entering an unsustainable path. When this occurs, fiscal policy is described as ‘passive’ (Leeper 1991). Conversely, fiscal policy is ‘active’ when the fiscal authority does not increase the primary balance in response to higher borrowing costs. Under such an active fiscal policy regime, higher interest rates would lead to growing fiscal-monetary tensions.
          Bohn (1998) introduced an exercise for gauging the activeness of fiscal policy, in which the primary balance-to-GDP ratio is regressed on the first lag of the debt-to-GDP-ratio. Based on this test, others (e.g. Mauro et al. 2015) found that advanced economies tend to swing between periods of prudence (passive fiscal policy) and periods of profligacy (active fiscal policy) (see also Zaman et al. 2013).
          Replicating Bohn’s exercise for a group of advanced economies between 1880-2022, we find that fiscal policy has indeed become increasingly unresponsive to rising debt levels and thus more active since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Specifically, the statistically significant and positive coefficient on the primary balance prior to the GFC turned negative after the GFC and increased further in magnitude after the start of the pandemic (Figure 2). This result is consistent with the results of a second set of regressions, which test whether a country’s primary balance eventually converges to its debt-stabilizing primary balance. Primary balances have become less likely to converge to their debt-stabilising levels since the GFC and have remained so after the onset of the pandemic. Thus, there is evidence that fiscal-monetary tensions may be on the rise.
          Mind the Gap: Gauging Fiscal-Monetary Tensions through Fiscal R-Star_2

          Introducing fiscal r-star and the fiscal-monetary gap

          We propose two new concepts – ‘fiscal r-star’ and the ‘fiscal-monetary gap’ – to measure fiscal-monetary tensions given active fiscal policy. We derive these concepts using standard macroeconomic frameworks including the IS and Phillips curves as well as the law-of-motion of government debt.
          Fiscal r-star is the real interest rate that stabilises a country’s debt-to-GDP ratio given its primary deficit path when output is growing at its potential and inflation is at target. Essentially, it represents the ceiling of real interest rates above which the debt path can become explosive. When fiscal r-star declines, the room for the fiscal authority to run deficits shrinks.
          We argue that the difference between fiscal r-star and monetary r-star (the natural interest rate) – which we term the ‘fiscal-monetary gap’ – measures fiscal-monetary tensions.
          When monetary r-star and fiscal r-star are equal, policymakers can simultaneously stabilise debt and keep inflation at target. But when monetary r-star moves above fiscal r-star, difficult policy trade-offs arise. When the central bank sets its real policy rate to match monetary r-star, public debt dynamics could become explosive absent fiscal adjustment. Alternatively, the central bank may keep its real policy rate below monetary r-star. This would have benefits for fiscal sustainability by reducing the cost and pace of debt accumulation, but would cause other challenges for price and financial stability.

          By how much have fiscal-monetary tensions been rising?

          We document the evolution of fiscal-monetary tensions by estimating the fiscal-monetary gap based on 140 years of data for 16 advanced economies.
          Our results offer several insights. First, the average fiscal-monetary gap was at the highest during WWII amid wartime fiscal needs. Second, after reaching historic lows in the 1970s on the back of a post-war boom and demobilisation, the gap remained low and relatively constant from the early 1980s through the mid-2000s, primarily due to the decline in monetary r-star after the early 1980s Volcker-era disinflation. Third, the fiscal-monetary gap has been climbing since the mid-2000s. Fourth and most importantly, as of the end of 2022, fiscal-monetary tensions are at the highest levels measured since the 1950s (Figure 3).
          Mind the Gap: Gauging Fiscal-Monetary Tensions through Fiscal R-Star_3

          Given high tensions today, policy adjustment is needed

          Employing local projections, we find that a rise in the fiscal-monetary gap tends to be followed by a range of adverse macroeconomic outcomes (Figure 4). These include rising inflation, higher debt, and weaker exchange rates. Larger gaps also subsequently correlate with the so-called liquidation of government debt, which is the use of low real interest rates and surprise inflation to reduce the real debt burden over time. Larger gaps are also associated with elevated risks of several types of crises.
          Given currently high fiscal-monetary tensions, policy adjustments may be needed to avoid these outcomes. The fiscal-monetary gap can be closed by a combination of policy tools. Our paper discusses the challenges and potential trade-offs associated with some of these policy actions.
          Growth-enhancing structural reforms can help fiscal and monetary policies regain their space, as we showed analytically in the paper. But in the presence of several headwinds weighing on global growth, medium-term growth prospects are likely to remain tepid (IMF 2024). This potentially calls for more immediate measures.
          One such measure is fiscal consolidation, which can raise fiscal r-star and therefore alleviate fiscal-monetary tensions. But implementation may be limited by political economy constraints. It is unclear whether advanced economies have the requisite social cohesion necessary to achieve a politically sustainable fiscal consolidation plan (Balasundharam et al. 2023).
          In fact, there could be a two-way relationship between political polarization and the fiscal-monetary gap (Figure 5), with both polarization and tensions rising to levels not seen in decades. One possible explanation for this co-movement is that as societies become more polarised, implementing the fiscal adjustments required to reduce the fiscal-monetary gap becomes more challenging (Roubini and Sachs 1989a, 1989b, Alesina and Tabellini 1990, Alesina and Drazen 1991). Pressures posed by fiscal-monetary tensions may also feed back into polarisation (Gabriel et al. 2023; Hubscher et al. 2023).
          Mind the Gap: Gauging Fiscal-Monetary Tensions through Fiscal R-Star_4
          Mind the Gap: Gauging Fiscal-Monetary Tensions through Fiscal R-Star_5
          Politicians may be tempted to engage in various forms of financial repression to liquidate large debt stocks or pressure central banks to ‘accommodate’ additional spending. Central bank institutional independence could and should prevent fiscal authorities from undermining the central bank’s ability to play an active role in stabilising inflation.
          Perhaps less discussed is that achieving price stability could also result in fiscal dividends. When inflation expectations are well-anchored, inflation risk premia on government debt would be reduced, thereby enhancing fiscal sustainability. Furthermore, any de-anchoring of inflation expectations resulting from overly accommodative monetary policy could subsequently necessitate even tighter monetary policy that increases fiscal-monetary tensions even more.
          Given uncertainty about the future path of monetary r-star, policymakers probably should not assume that real interest rates will remain lower for longer. In such an environment, strong policy actions are needed to reduce fiscal-monetary tensions over time.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          October Macro and Asset Class Views

          UBS

          Economic

          When the top policymakers in the world’s two largest economies are determined to support economic growth, it pays to listen. On September 18, the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a 50 basis point cut, delivering a strong message that the central bank will not hesitate to act aggressively to ensure a soft landing. A week later, China’s Politburo delivered a forceful message that fiscal policy will be engaged to reduce downside risks to growth, notably by directly supporting the Chinese consumer in earnest for the first time under President Xi. While there remain lingering concerns on US labor market momentum and policy implementation in China, we would not underestimate renewed policymaker resolve to cut off the left tail on domestic and effectively global growth. We believe that there is further room for markets to price out recession risk across asset classes.

          A proactive Fed

          After the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with an uncharacteristically large 50 basis point cut, Fed Chair Powell said: “the labor market is actually in solid condition. And our intention with our policy move today is to keep it there.” Powell clearly wanted to signal a Fed reaction function that will be proactive, and was able to convince the rest of the FOMC to back it up with a powerful action. This suggests that the bar is low for the Fed to continue easing at an aggressive pace should the labor market disappoint even somewhat in the near term.
          At the same time, we are not convinced the Fed will need to ultimately deliver on all the rate cuts that are priced into the market over the coming year. Hard economic data have been surprising to the upside for weeks, with consumption looking robust and initial jobless claims remaining low. Even though the Fed has only just cut rates, there are nascent signs that the easing of financial conditions earlier this year are having a positive effect on the housing market, with new home sales, housing starts and building permits all surprising to the upside of late. Finally, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis just meaningfully revised its measurements of Gross Domestic Income, leading to a sharp upward revision in the estimated US savings rate from 3.3% to 5.2% for Q2. This had been a key argument used by US economy bears that the US consumer was spending beyond its means and due for a sharp retrenchment. In short, the Fed does not look like it is behind the curve.
          Exhibit 1: The personal Savings Rate was revised significantly upwards

          October Macro and Asset Class Views_1

          Source: Source: BEA, UBS Asset Management. As of September 2024

          An inflection point for China

          Until last week, China’s stimulus measures have been woefully inadequate to cushion the economy against ongoing deleveraging in the property market and deflationary pressures. The underlying economy has suffered from low private sector confidence, which policymakers had been reluctant to support in full, amid a preference to direct resources at the supply side (infrastructure investment) over demand side (consumption) of the economy.
          That said, the coordinated set of monetary and fiscal policy announcements last week designed to support the housing market, capital markets and the consumer do signal a shift in strategy from the government to revive sentiment and dynamism in the private sector. In the spirit of listening carefully when policymakers speak, we note that the September Politburo, which was the first unscheduled meeting of China’s top economic policymakers since the depths of COVID in March 2020, used forceful and focused language on steps to revive the economy.
          Leaving out prior Politburo references to structural issues, moral hazard and national security, the readout showed determination to achieve its ‘around 5%’ real GDP target, stop the real estate market from falling, and acting with urgency to ensure necessary fiscal support for the economy. Most notably, language and news since the statement suggest the first genuine direct support for consumers themselves, something that had seemed ideologically off limits in prior communications. Also notable, was the stated need to ‘respond to the concerns of the people;’ this may suggest the Politburo’s growing concerns over social stability, which could have motivated a shift to demand-supportive policies where there was previous reluctance.
          While there are many details to be ironed out, including questions on the size and scope of fiscal support, we think the shift in language signals a genuine turn in China’s policymaking reaction function. There is a clear message to address downside risks, and potential for additional stimulus measures announced in coming weeks.

          Defensives at risk

          Policy shifts from the Fed and Politburo come just as investors had started to send a wave of money towards more defensive assets. According to the popular Bank of America fund manager survey, investors in September reported their biggest overweight to defensives vs. cyclicals since May of 2020. Indeed, the UBS cyclicals vs. defensives equity basket had fallen sharply over recent months; we think it has further room to rebound from here. Separately, asset managers have built up a large overweight position in US government bonds, according to the CFTC and J.P. Morgan’s client survey. Regionally, we have downgraded US Treasuries from overweight to neutral as the US economy looks resilient. The more proactive the Fed is today, the less they will need to ultimately deliver further out in time.
          Exhibit 2: Still room for cyclicals to outperform defensives

          October Macro and Asset Class Views_2
          Source: Bloomberg, UBS Asset Management. As of September 2024

          In equities, we have upgraded China and emerging markets, which remain attractively valued even after China’s stimulus announcements. According to fund flows specialists EPFR, China allocations in active equity funds were close to 10-year lows at the end of August. While European equities should also receive some boost from China’s stimulus, particularly exporters of luxury goods, Germany’s economic weakening and ongoing manufacturing headwinds keep us underweight. US equities remain overvalued, but as mentioned above, we see further upside for more cyclical sectors versus defensives.
          More broadly, we favor overweights to Asia and European credit, where there is more attractive carry than in US credit. We also are long the Brazilian Real and South African Rand, which offer carry and further potential upside as China reduces global growth risks. Our overall position in duration is neutral, but we remain short JGBs as the market continues to underprice the further tightening we expect from the Bank of Japan.
          We acknowledge that after the recent surge, there is risk of disappointment with policy delivery in China, not to mention geopolitical risks including the potential for a US election victory for President Trump who has threatened a surge in tariffs on China. The MSCI China Index is much more heavily weighted towards the domestic services economy and therefore would be less directly impacted by tariffs on Chinese exports. Still, there are risks that a shock to confidence could be a headwind for the current global reallocation back into China. As always we will be monitoring the risks to our position into upcoming risk events.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Layoffs are Few in The US, So Why are Jobs Harder to Find?

          Owen Li

          Economic

          As job growth has slowed and unemployment has crept up, some economists have pointed to a sign of confidence among employers: They are, for the most part, holding on to their existing workers.

          Despite headline-grabbing job cuts at a few big companies, overall layoffs remain below their levels during the strong economy before the pandemic. Applications for unemployment benefits, which drifted up in the spring and summer, have recently been falling.

          But past recessions suggest that layoff data alone should not offer much comfort about the labour market. Historically, job cuts have come only once an economic downturn was well under way.

          The milder recession in 2001 offers an even clearer example. The unemployment rate rose steadily from 4.3 per cent in May to 5.7 per cent at the end of the year. But apart from a brief spike in the fall, layoffs hardly rose.

          Earlier recessions followed a similar pattern, for what economists say is a straightforward reason: Layoffs are disruptive, expensive and bad for morale. So companies try to avoid cutting jobs until they have no choice – sometimes waiting longer than financial logic would dictate.

          “It’s costly to lay someone off,” said Mr Parker Ross, global chief economist at Arch Capital, an insurer. “That’s something that generally firms turn to as a last resort.”

          Companies may be unusually reluctant to lay off workers now because many struggled to hire after the pandemic recession. Even if business slows, Mr Ross said, employers may prefer to retain workers rather than risk being short staffed again if the economy rebounds.

          That reluctance is good news for workers in the short run. But it poses a risk: If the economy worsens more than businesses anticipate, they could be forced to shed workers in a hurry. If that happens, economic conditions could unravel quickly, as job losses cause consumers to pull back on spending, leading to more losses.

          “That’s what everybody worries about, because unemployment begets unemployment begets unemployment,” said Mr Andrew Challenger, senior vice-president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm that tracks labour market data.

          Unemployment can rise even without a surge in layoffs, however. What really distinguishes a recession isn’t job losses, but a slowdown in hiring.

          That may be counterintuitive, given how synonymous “recessions” and “job losses” are in the popular imagination. Layoffs happen even in a healthy economy – but when people lose their jobs in recessions, they struggle to find new ones.

          “When a hiring manager decides not to fill a position, that doesn’t tend to make headlines” the way a plant closing might, said Professor Robert Shimer, a University of Chicago economist. But those decisions – multiplied across the economy – can lead to rising joblessness, he said. In a 2012 paper, he found that roughly three-quarters of the fluctuation in the unemployment rate resulted from shifts in the hiring rate.

          In other words, it is hiring, not layoffs, that tends to signal a looming recession. And hiring has already slowed.

          Employers added just 116,000 jobs per month over the past three months, down from 451,000 during the same period two years ago. Gross hiring – the total number of people hired, without subtracting those who leave their jobs or lose them – has fallen to about 5.5 million jobs per month from a record high of nearly seven million in early 2022.
          In 2022, employers were still racing to staff up after the pandemic. A slowdown from that pace was inevitable.
          But in recent months, hiring has fallen below the level it was before the pandemic. According to recent research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, that decline has contributed to the modest rise in the unemployment rate – it was 4.2 per cent in August, up from a 54-year low of 3.4 per cent in early 2023.
          Economists caution that the slowdown in hiring does not mean that a recession has begun, or that one is inevitable. It is not clear to what extent patterns from before the pandemic will apply to the post-pandemic economy. And while the labour market has weakened, it is quite strong by most measures.
          Still, there are signs that people who need jobs are having more trouble getting them.
          The share of unemployed workers finding jobs each month has fallen. The number of Americans considered long-term unemployed – those out of work for more than six months – has risen. In surveys, workers say they are less confident than they were last year that if they lost their job, they could find a new one quickly.
          “Businesses have pulled back,” Mr Ross of Arch Capital said. “There’s not as much demand for labour, and they’re not hiring at the pace they were.”

          Source: Straitstimes

          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          October 2nd Financial News

          FastBull Featured

          Daily News

          Economic

          [Quick Facts]

          1. Iranian President says Iran will firmly resist any threat.
          2. U.S. job vacancies rise to a 3-month high, exceeding expectations.
          3. ECB's Rehn says easing inflation supports case for October cut.
          4. Eurozone inflation hits ECB's target for the first time in three years.

          [News Details]

          Iranian President says Iran will firmly resist any threat
          On October 1, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian hailed Iran's missile attack as a 'decisive response' to Israeli 'aggression." He said Iran did not seek war but would firmly resist any threat. Pezeshkian posted on social media in the evening, saying that based on legitimate rights, and for the peace and security of Iran and the Middle East, Iran had decisively responded to Israel's "aggression." "This is only a part of our strength. Do not engage in conflict with Iran," Pezeshkian warned Israel. According to Iranian state television, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on October 1 that it used the Fattah hypersonic missile for the first time in an attack on Israel, with about 90% of the missiles hitting their targets.
          U.S. job vacancies rise to a 3-month high, exceeding expectations
          U.S. job vacancies rose to a three-month high in August, a trend that contrasts with other data indicating a slowdown in labor demand. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) on Tuesday showed that the number of job vacancies increased from a revised 7.71 million in July to 8.04 million. The hiring rate fell to 3.3%, matching the lowest level since 2013, excluding the early pandemic data from 2020. The unemployment rate also dropped to 1%. Despite the increase in vacancies, other recent data show that employers have slowed their pace of hiring.
          ECB's Rehn says easing inflation supports case for October cut
          European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn said that easing inflation pressures and the deteriorating Eurozone economy support the case for a rate cut this month. "Recent statistics further confirm that inflation is slowing," the Governor of the Bank of Finland said on Tuesday. "This, at least in my view, gives more reason for a rate cut at the October meeting. The recent weakening of the euro area's growth prospects tilts the scales in the same direction."
          Eurozone inflation hits ECB's target for the first time in three years
          For the first time in more than three years, the Eurozone inflation rate has fallen below the European Central Bank's target, indicating that long-term efforts to control price gains may be coming to an end. Data showed that the Eurozone's CPI in September rose by 1.8% year-on-year, down from 2.2% in August. This is the first time since June 2021 that the YoY inflation rate has fallen below the ECB's 2% target. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, core inflation dipped slightly from 2.8% in August to 2.7% in September. ECB President Christine Lagarde had previously stated that inflation might rise again in the final months of this year as the base effects of energy prices fade.

          [Today's Focus]

          UTC+8 15:15 - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos Speaks
          UTC+8 17:30 - Bank of England Publishes Financial Policy Committee Meeting Minutes
          UTC+8 17:30 - ECB Governing Council Member Kazaks Speaks
          UTC+8 20:15 - U.S. ADP Report (Sept)
          UTC+8 21:00 - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Speaks
          UTC+8 22:00 - ECB Governing Council Member Robert Holzmann Speaks
          UTC+8 23:00 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share
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