Oil Prices Rebound on Trade Optimism

Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

WTI crude oil prices are hovering around $60.00 per barrel, with easing trade tensions providing an upside potential.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

60.857

Entry Price

70.540

56.700

57.276 +0.043 +0.08%

176.6

Pips

Profit

56.700

62.623

Exit Price

60.857

Entry Price

70.540

Fundamentals

The resurgence of optimism surrounding global trade negotiations has bolstered oil prices, which are on track for a weekly gain of over 3%. The recent announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, the first such deal with a major trading partner since the imposition of broad tariffs by the Trump administration, has significantly eased trade tensions.

This development has not only enhanced investors' confidence but also provided a robust tailwind for crude oil prices.

Furthermore, China and the U.S., after a prolonged stalemate in the trade war, are set to commence trade negotiations in Switzerland this weekend. The primary objective of these talks is to reach a consensus on reducing the currently excessive tariffs, which have effectively imposed a de facto trade embargo on most goods. Given the increasing economic pressure on both sides, we anticipate that an agreement to lower tariffs to a more reasonable range will be reached in the near term.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices continued to climb on Friday, trading near $60.80 per barrel, following a nearly 4% increase in the previous trading session. The easing of trade tensions among major oil-consuming countries and the announcement of a "breakthrough" trade agreement between the UK and the U.S. have been the primary catalysts for the recent price surge.

Technically, WTI crude oil prices have broken through the descending triangle resistance that has been constraining their movement since early April. Currently, the commodity is trading above $60.04 per barrel, showing a bullish momentum after rebounding from recent lows. Meanwhile, the formation of a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the one-hour time frame further confirms that an upward trend may be taking shape.

From a moving average perspective, the MA100 has crossed below the MA200, which typically signals a bearish crossover. However, the current price is approaching a dynamic turning point of the MA100, and a breakout to the upside could be an early bullish signal.

The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought area, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening. The indicator has been on an upward trajectory since early May, confirming the recent upward trend in prices. However, as it nears the 80 level, it may signal that the market's upward momentum could weaken, and traders should remain cautious.

The relative strength index (RSI) is also on an upward trend and still has room to rise before reaching the overbought area, indicating that the upward momentum may continue in the short term. The RSI is currently hovering around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures.

If crude oil prices successfully break through and hold above the top of the descending triangle, we may see oil prices rise towards the resistance level of $64.00 per barrel. Conversely, if the breakout fails, it could trigger a pullback to test the support level of $55.27 per barrel.

Despite OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production by 411,000 b/d in June, investors should still keep a close eye on geopolitical and trade dynamics, as positive news could revitalize the commodity's stronger demand outlook.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 60.80

Target Price: 70.54

Stop Loss: 56.70

Valid Until: May 24, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 59.83/57.15/56.19

Resistance: 61.83/63.47/64.71

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Although the UK and the US reached a trade agreement yesterday, it came at the cost of unilateral concessions by the UK.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.32570

Entry Price

1.27600

1.34500

1.33668 -0.00039 -0.03%

193.0

Pips

Loss

1.27600

1.34510

Exit Price

1.32570

Entry Price

1.34500

Fundamental

Yesterday, the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, but it was a unilateral concession by the UK.

The newly signed UK-US trade agreement, while superficially easing tariff tensions, contains hidden risks for the pound (GBP). The UK agreed to slash tariffs on US agricultural imports from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US will only apply a 10% tariff to the first 100,000 UK car exports (maintaining 25% beyond this quota) and eliminate steel/aluminum tariffs. Though this temporarily eases export pressures, the agreement fails to address tariff barriers on UK core industries. Additionally, the UK's commitment to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft exacerbates trade deficit risks. Threats of future US tariffs on UK pharmaceuticals further dampen market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates by 25bps to 4.25% yesterday—its fourth easing since August 2024. While the BoE emphasized a "gradual and prudent" approach, markets now price in 100bps of cumulative cuts in 2024 (potentially lowering rates to 3.5%). Contrasting this, the Fed's hawkish stance (with 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.274%) widens the interest rate differential, driving arbitrage flows into the USD and amplifying GBP depreciation pressures.

Technical Analysis

Neckline Breach Signals Potential Downside_1

Based on the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a confirmed breach of the neckline at 1.3250, signaling activated downside potential.

Current price action shows GBPUSD rebounding from support at the 144-period moving average (MA144) to test the validity of the pattern. A weakening signal near 1.3250 (the neckline-turned-resistance) would confirm the bearish setup, opening the door for further declines. Even if prices rebound above the neckline but stall below the left shoulder at 1.3423, the bearish outlook remains intact.

Selling at highs is suggested.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3260

Target price: 1.2760

Stop loss: 1.3450

Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.3211/1.2708

Resistance: 1.3402/1.3443

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

A day after the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady, the Bank of England (BOE) cut its benchmark rate, highlighting a growing divergence between the Fed and other global central banks in their responses to economic challenges, including those posed by Trump's tariffs.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

192.000

Entry Price

196.600

189.800

208.233 -0.090 -0.04%

130.2

Pips

Profit

189.800

193.302

Exit Price

192.000

Entry Price

196.600

Fundamentals

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to reduce the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision revealed a rare three-way split among policymakers.

Five members supported the 25 basis point cut, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. Conversely, Catherine L. Mann and Huw Pill argued for maintaining the rate at 4.5%.

In an accompanying statement, the Bank reiterated that a "gradual and careful approach" to unwinding monetary tightening remains appropriate.

While acknowledging progress on disinflation, the MPC emphasized the need to keep policy "restrictive for as long as necessary" to ensure that inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

The Bank's latest Monetary Policy Report forecasts that CPI inflation will rise to 3.5% in the third quarter of 2025 before falling back to 2% in the medium term.

However, policymakers outlined two alternative scenarios fraught with risks. The first scenario envisions a drop in demand, assuming heightened uncertainty suppresses domestic spending and inflationary pressures dissipate more quickly. In this case, the economy would face a larger output gap, with inflation 0.3% lower than the baseline over three years.

Conversely, the second scenario projects persistently higher inflation, driven by second-round effects on wages and prices from recent increases in headline inflation, compounded by weak productivity growth. In this scenario, while inflation would have a smaller impact on economic growth, it would remain 0.4% above the baseline throughout the forecast period.

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the GBPJPY edged higher, trading around 192.77, with bulls maintaining control. The pair continues to find support from a series of ascending short-term moving averages, which further reinforces its overall bullish structure. However, mixed signals from some momentum indicators may limit its short-term upside potential.

From a technical perspective, as long as the support level at 189.97 holds, GBPJPY is expected to continue its upward trend. A breakout above 193.72 would extend the rally that began at 184.35, targeting the resistance level at 195.95.

Conversely, a breakdown below the 189.97 support level would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 192.00

Target Price: 196.60

Stop Loss: 189.80

Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 191.78/190.28/189.34

Resistance: 193.72/195.41/196.46

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

Price has already breached the 100-period MA to the downside, putting the 200-period MA in focus as the next critical support zone.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.32606

Entry Price

1.30000

1.33900

1.33668 -0.00039 -0.03%

89.1

Pips

Profit

1.30000

1.31715

Exit Price

1.32606

Entry Price

1.33900

U.S. President Donald Trump made a series of remarks on Thursday, emphasizing what he described as a significant breakthrough in trade relations with the United Kingdom. He also hinted that tariffs on Chinese goods could be lowered ahead of this weekend’s high-level trade talks between Washington and Beijing. At the same time, Trump reignited his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, underscoring the ongoing tension between the White House and the central bank over the direction of monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, held steady on Wednesday, keeping interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting. Despite persistent calls from President Trump for further rate cuts, the central bank chose to stay the course, pointing instead to rising economic uncertainty as a reason for maintaining a cautious stance.

During his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank would proceed carefully in the coming months. “There is no need to move hastily,” Powell said, stressing that policymakers will evaluate how U.S. tariffs are affecting inflation, labor markets, and broader economic dynamics, particularly as international trade negotiations continue to evolve.

“We cannot predict how this situation will develop,” Powell added. Still, he acknowledged that risks tied to the global trade environment remain elevated. “My sense is that uncertainty surrounding the economic trajectory is unusually high,” he remarked, reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to a data-dependent, patient approach.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range—levels last reached in late 2024 following a full percentage point cut implemented during the prior autumn. In its official statement, the Fed acknowledged that uncertainty had “increased further,” although it also highlighted that economic growth remains “solid,” despite recent noise in export-related data from the early months of 2025.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) resumed its path of monetary easing at its latest policy meeting. In response to what it described as “heightened unpredictability in the global economic environment,” largely stemming from the U.S. administration’s trade strategies, the BoE lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stated that it is pursuing a forward-looking and medium-term strategy to guide policy in line with its inflation mandate. The May 7 meeting ended with a narrow 5–4 vote in favor of the cut. Notably, two members (Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor) favored a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction, while two others (Catherine L. Mann and Huw Pill) voted to hold rates steady at 4.50%.

On the inflation front, the BoE projected a temporary rise to 3.5% in Q3, driven by surging energy prices, before easing back down later in the year. However, its GDP outlook took a hit, with expectations of a sharp slowdown to just 0.1% growth in Q2 and downside risks remaining elevated. GBPUSD Faces Pressure as USD Strength Broadens Across Markets_1

GBPUSD Faces Pressure as USD Strength Broadens Across Markets_1

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD marked a local top around 1.3445 on April 28, but since then, the pair has come under sustained bearish pressure. Price action has carved out a near-term support level at 1.3267 and has failed to print a new higher high—an early signal that the recent bullish structure could be weakening.

Should the pair break below current support, the next potential target lies near 1.2990, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which could serve as a key magnet for sellers.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 1.3318 and 1.3441, respectively. Price has already breached the 100-period MA to the downside, putting the 200-period MA in focus as the next critical support zone. A clean break below both averages could accelerate bearish momentum toward the Fibonacci level.

On the flip side, if GBPUSD were to stage a recovery and break back above the descending trendline, this would invalidate the current bearish setup and potentially reignite bullish momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3262

Target price: 1.3000

Stop loss: 1.3390

Validity: May 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

On Wednesday, the Ethereum network witnessed a stable price appreciation following the deployment of the Pectra upgrade on its mainnet. Despite the introduction of several new functionalities, the upgrade did not precipitate significant market volatility.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1994.27

Entry Price

2251.00

1725.00

3073.60 -10.96 -0.36%

2567.3

Pips

Profit

1725.00

2252.99

Exit Price

1994.27

Entry Price

2251.00

Fundamentals

As the preeminent smart contract platform, Ethereum's transaction metrics serve as a barometer for the health of its ecosystem and user engagement levels. Systematic analysis of on-chain data is instrumental in identifying network bottlenecks and informing optimization strategies for developers, investors, and researchers.

As of May 7, 2025, Ethereum's daily transaction volume reached 1.308 million, representing a 2.31% increase from the previous day's 1.279 million transactions. On a YoY basis, this marks a 6.20% growth compared to the same period last year (1.232 million), indicating a steady rise in network utilization.

A review of the Q1 2025 data reveals that the average daily transaction volume oscillated between 1.25 million and 1.35 million, with a peak of 1.342 million on April 25 and a trough of 1.011 million on April 20.

Etherscan data indicates that 168,957 new addresses were created on May 7, 2025, while the number of daily active addresses continues to climb. This trend underscores the influx of new users and decentralized application (DApp) participants into the Ethereum ecosystem.

A recent report from Gate Research highlights a 34.5% MoM increase in the average daily trading volume of ETH options. This surge reflects the utilization of options by large traders for risk hedging and strategic arbitrage, thereby accentuating the secondary market's role in driving underlying transaction activity.

A comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's Q1 2025 transaction data reveals a robust and expanding network.

The concurrent rise in daily transaction volumes and active address counts, coupled with relatively low gas fees facilitated by Layer 2 scaling solutions, underscores the network's overall health. The symbiotic relationship between on-chain innovations (such as DeFi and NFTs) and the secondary market (including options and ETFs) is a key driver of this growth. Looking forward, the implementation of upgrades like EIP-4844 and the maturation of the Layer 2 ecosystem are expected to further enhance Ethereum's performance and user experience.

Breaking Consolidation with Rising Volume_1

Technical Analysis

In the current trading week, two key technical indicators suggest that Ethereum's price is in a consolidation phase. The first signal is the test of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resistance level, which typically indicates a period of price stabilization. The second signal is a robust rebound following the consolidation, which often serves as a confirmation of short-term price resilience.

Should Ethereum's price achieve an upward breakout, it is poised to challenge the next supply zone at approximately $2,003. This breakout would likely set the stage for a continued upward trend, with an initial target price above $2,104. Following this move, market sentiment is expected to stabilize into a neutral phase. In such a scenario, we project that the price will continue to appreciate, with a medium-term target exceeding the $2,665 resistance level.

Conversely, if Ethereum's price were to breach the critical support level of $1,732 and close below it, this would signal a resumption of the downward trend, potentially triggering further sell-offs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1921

Target Price: 2251

Stop Loss: 1725

Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1872/1785/1725

Resistance: 2003/2039/2102

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD approaches 1.3900 as the Canadian Dollar weakens ahead of the BoC’s Financial System Review and Trump’s US-UK trade deal announcement, with technicals suggesting further upside potential.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38698

Entry Price

1.41500

1.37400

1.37708 +0.00008 +0.01%

8.2

Pips

Loss

1.37400

1.38616

Exit Price

1.38698

Entry Price

1.41500

The Canadian Dollar finds itself under pressure once again, with the USD/CAD pair climbing steadily toward the psychologically significant 1.3900 threshold in Thursday trading. As of the latest quotes, the pair is hovering around 1.3880, up 0.34% on the day, extending a week-long trend of Loonie weakness amid a complex mix of macroeconomic fragilities and geopolitical tension.

Today’s price action reflects cautious sentiment ahead of two critical catalysts set to unfold at 14:00 GMT: the Bank of Canada’s semi-annual Financial System Review (FSR) and a speech by former US President Donald Trump, who is expected to unveil the framework of a new US-UK trade deal. Each carries weight in its own right, but their simultaneous timing places extraordinary focus on North American financial stability and the evolving architecture of global trade.

Though not a policy-setting instrument per se, the Financial System Review is increasingly seen as a bellwether for market risk. It dissects vulnerabilities embedded within the Canadian economy—ranging from high household debt levels and elevated housing prices to credit quality deterioration across key segments.

With Canada’s economy already showing signs of deceleration—April’s GDP growth missed estimates while inflation appears to be moderating—any warnings from the BoC about tightening financial conditions could raise red flags for the Canadian Dollar. Analysts expect the central bank to strike a cautiously concerned tone, especially with financial institutions facing liquidity pressures and consumer debt ratios hovering near historical highs.

Governor Tiff Macklem is set to address the press following the report’s release, and markets will parse his language for any clues about the future path of monetary policy. Though rate changes aren’t anticipated in the near term, any suggestion that the BoC may need to reinforce financial buffers could lead to risk-off sentiment and additional Loonie weakness.

Meanwhile, on the geopolitical front, Trump’s expected announcement of a new US–UK trade deal is drawing global attention—not merely for its bilateral significance but for what it symbolizes. This marks the first major trade initiative since the so-called "Liberation Day," and the deal could signal a broader move toward bilateralism, departing from the multilateral norms that have long underpinned the global trading order.

Investors are watching for structural details: Will the deal include favorable terms for US energy and agricultural exports? Could it open transatlantic supply chains for industrial inputs that benefit Canadian exporters? If the UK deal becomes a blueprint, it could indirectly benefit North American producers—particularly if it simplifies logistics and boosts demand for intermediate goods.

However, this positive potential is being tempered by escalating trade rhetoric closer to home. Tensions flared earlier this week when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met with Trump in Washington. Though described as “cordial but firm,” the meeting exposed deep divisions. Trump’s offhand remark that Canada “could become the 51st state” drew a sharp rebuke from Carney: “Canada is not for sale, it won’t be for sale, ever.”

More significantly, discussions also touched on the USMCA trade pact. Trump hinted at possible retaliatory tariffs if Canada fails to fully comply with sector-specific provisions, suggesting that the US is prepared to act unilaterally. “Non-compliance will not go unanswered,” Trump declared. This hardline stance has reignited concerns about tariffs on Canadian metals, timber, and agricultural products, all of which could weigh heavily on the CAD if tensions escalate further.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CAD is exhibiting strong bullish momentum. The pair recently broke out of a falling wedge pattern—a formation traditionally seen as a bullish reversal signal—and has comfortably surpassed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), removing a layer of downward pressure that had previously capped gains.

The current move appears to be a retest of the broken structure, and should this breakout hold, analysts see room for further upside, with potential targets extending toward the 1.4150 mark. This would represent the highest level since late 2022 and would cement the greenback’s dominance in the pair.

Intraday price action also supports this thesis. The pair’s recent consolidation around the 1.3870–1.3880 area appears to be a healthy pause rather than exhaustion. Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD are still showing room for continuation, and barring a dovish surprise from the BoC or a conciliatory tone from Trump, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3870

STOP LOSS: 1.3740

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4150

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Economic

Summary:

GBP/JPY surges toward 193.00 as the Bank of England delivers a cautious 25bps rate cut, surprising markets with a hawkish tilt despite easing

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

192.498

Entry Price

197.400

191.000

208.233 -0.090 -0.04%

274.3

Pips

Profit

191.000

195.241

Exit Price

192.498

Entry Price

197.400

The British Pound rallied sharply against the Japanese Yen on Thursday, pushing the GBP/JPY pair close to the psychological 193.00 mark, as investors digested the latest policy decisions from the Bank of England and recalibrated expectations for Japanese monetary policy. The move came in the wake of a widely anticipated 25 basis point interest rate cut by the BoE, bringing its benchmark rate down to 4.25%, yet the market response defied conventional wisdom the Pound gained.

While rate cuts typically weigh on a currency, Sterling found support from the nuanced messaging within the central bank’s policy decision. Most notably, two members of the Monetary Policy Committee Chief Economist Huw Pill and Catherine Mann voted to keep rates steady at 4.5%, signaling internal divisions and suggesting that the BoE remains far from an aggressive easing cycle. This hawkish dissent, coupled with the Bank’s upward revision of UK GDP growth for 2025 from 0.75% to 1% served as a signal that policymakers are growing more confident in the economy’s underlying resilience.

In a nod to economic caution, however, two other MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voted for a steeper 50bps cut, underscoring a divergence in views on inflation risks and growth potential. The Bank opted to retain its forward guidance centered around a “gradual and careful” approach to any further monetary policy loosening, reinforcing the sense that this is not a pivot into aggressive stimulus, but rather a managed, stepwise adjustment calibrated to evolving macroeconomic signals.

For Sterling bulls, this decision created a perfect narrative storm. The presence of internal policy hawks amidst a rate cut signaled that the door to higher-for-longer interest rates remains ajar a scenario that traditionally underpins currency strength. Investors have also latched onto broader macro-political themes, including a potential trade deal announcement between the UK and the United States.

According to a report from The New York Times, US President Donald Trump is poised to unveil a new bilateral trade deal with a “highly respected country” a remark many have interpreted to mean the United Kingdom, based on Trump’s own post on Truth Social. If confirmed, such a development could provide a longer-term tailwind for Sterling, reinforcing trade ties in a post-Brexit landscape and injecting a degree of investor optimism into the UK’s economic trajectory.

Across the Pacific, the Japanese Yen extended its losing streak, weighed down by growing skepticism that the Bank of Japan will initiate further rate hikes in the near term. The central bank’s March meeting minutes, released Thursday, painted a cautious picture. While inflation has shown signs of stickiness, BoJ officials flagged significant downside risks to the domestic economy particularly those stemming from U.S.-led international policy decisions.

One member cited the “rapidly heightened” downside risks stemming from the U.S.’s evolving tariff stance, adding that these policies could have a “significant negative impact” on Japan’s real economy. With global trade tensions potentially flaring under President Trump’s leadership, the BoJ appears inclined to maintain a defensive posture rather than venture into tightening mode.

This dovish tone has further sapped appetite for the Yen, especially as rate differentials between Japan and its developed market peers remain stark. Traders increasingly view the JPY as a funding currency in the current macro environment, exacerbating its underperformance against higher-yielding counterparts like the Pound.

Technical Analysis

Technically, GBP/JPY has confirmed a bullish breakout from a well-defined falling wedge pattern on the 4 hour chart — a classic reversal structure that suggests the pair’s recent pullback has concluded and a new bullish phase may be underway.

The breakout, confirmed by a strong and impulsive candle, comes with improving volume metrics and a series of higher lows, pointing to sustained buyer interest. The 190.000 handle provided solid support during recent dips, and the breakout above wedge resistance at 192.000 turns that zone into a fresh demand area.

As of writing, GBP/JPY is consolidating near 192.100, with momentum favoring a continuation toward the next major resistance at 195.000. If bulls maintain control, an extension toward the psychologically significant 197.400 zone appears increasingly plausible, particularly as macro fundamentals align with the technical setup.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 192.50

STOP LOSS: 191.00

TAKE PROFIT: 197.40

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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