Moving Average Rejection Sets Stage for New Bearish Leg

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This latest rejection reinforces the bearish bias, potentially driving the price toward the 154.69 support zone.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

155.513

Entry Price

154.700

156.200

157.465 -0.235 -0.15%

68.7

Pips

Loss

154.700

156.200

Exit Price

155.513

Entry Price

156.200

U.S. President Donald Trump recently issued a stark statement via his social media platform, Truth Social, declaring: "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Navy ever assembled in South American History." He demanded the immediate return of "all oil, land, and other assets previously stolen from the U.S.," alleging that the "illegitimate Maduro regime" is utilizing these resources to finance drug terrorism, human trafficking, and other violent crimes. Consequently, the administration has officially designated the Venezuelan regime as a foreign terrorist organization.

On the economic front, recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) presented a conflicting narrative. While November’s workforce expansion exceeded forecasts, the unemployment rate simultaneously climbed to its highest peak since 2021. Despite this labor market softening—which theoretically supports aggressive monetary easing—expectations for a January 2026 rate cut remain notably low at approximately 25%, according to Capital Edge data.

Further complicating the outlook, delayed retail sales figures from the U.S. Census Bureau suggest that American consumer spending remains resilient, with October sales holding steady. However, the underlying data reveals a growing burden on households due to rising costs for food, furniture, and imported goods—inflationary pressures exacerbated by current tariff policies.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic characterized the latest jobs report as a "mixed bag," stating it has not fundamentally altered his perspective. He expressed a preference for holding rates steady during recent deliberations, citing "multiple surveys" that indicate rising input costs for businesses. Bostic noted that firms are determined to protect profit margins by passing these costs on to consumers, cautioning that the Fed should not prematurely declare victory over inflation despite projecting 2026 GDP growth at roughly 2.5%.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller offered a slightly different view, noting that previous rate cuts have positively impacted the employment sector. He estimated that current rates remain 50 to 100 basis points above neutral levels. However, he emphasized that there is no immediate rush to continue reducing the Fed funds rate, as he believes inflation is "unlikely to re-accelerate."

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to hike interest rates this week, a move that could significantly bolster the Yen (JPY) and create a strong headwind for the USD/JPY pair. Markets anticipate a rate increase to 0.75% from the current 0.5% during the two-day policy meeting ending Friday. This shift would push the benchmark rate to a three-decade high. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated last week that the probability of achieving the bank’s core economic and price outlook has been increasing, signaling that Japan is nearing its long-sought inflation target. Moving Average Rejection Sets Stage for New Bearish Leg_1

Moving Average Rejection Sets Stage for New Bearish Leg_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair recently staged a bullish retracement to the 155.76 level, only to be met with a swift rejection from the 200-period Moving Average (MA). This rapid reversal, combined with RSI levels that approached the 70 mark before retreating, suggests that a new bearish leg may be in development.

Since hitting a local high of 156.95 on October 9th, the pair has consistently printed lower highs, a hallmark characteristic of a sustained downtrend. This latest rejection reinforces the bearish bias, potentially driving the price toward the 154.69 support zone.

Currently, the 100-period and 200-period MAs are situated at 155.30 and 156.63, respectively. A decisive close below the 100-period MA could accelerate downward momentum. Technical targets include the 0.618 Fibonacci expansion at 154.69 and potentially the 1.00 expansion at 154.03, especially if the Bank of Japan delivers a hawkish policy surprise. Conversely, a forceful bullish breakout above the recent local highs would invalidate the current bearish setup and open the door for a continued move to the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 155.52

Target price: 154.70

Stop loss: 156.20

Validity: Dec 26, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Trump's blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers spurred a rebound in oil prices, but the pressure from global oversupply remains immense.

BUY WTI

EXP

PENDING

55.500

Entry Price

59.180

52.790

56.988 +0.595 +1.06%

Pips

PENDING

52.790

Exit Price

55.500

Entry Price

59.180

Fundamentals

On Wednesday during Asian trading hours, oil prices rebounded from their lowest levels since 2021 after U.S. President Trump escalated pressure on Venezuela by seizing an oil tanker. However, signs of global supply glut continued to weigh on the market, with indications of weakness emerging from the Middle East to the U.S.

Investors are bracing for what the International Energy Agency forecasts will be the largest supply glut since the pandemic began. The oversupply is primarily driven by OPEC+ rapidly restoring idle capacity and other oil-producing nations increasing output, putting crude prices on track for an annual decline.

Traders are still weighing the possibility of Ukraine reaching a peace agreement, which could pave the way for easing restrictions on Russian crude exports.

Prices Rebounded After Breaking Below Key Support, but Bearish Trend Remains Unbroken_1

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices have been falling recently, breaking through multiple support levels, and are currently trading around US$56.45.

The price of this commodity is undergoing a minor pullback from its recent low near US$54.87, potentially testing a key resistance level as sellers may be waiting for an opportunity to act. Currently trading below the downtrend line, with the 100-day SMA also below the 200-day SMA, this further confirms the likelihood of a downward price movement.

The Fibonacci retracement lines drawn from the high of US$57.88 to the low of US$54.87 reveal potential resistance zones where the pullback may stall. The 38.2% retracement level is at US$56.10, while the 50% retracement level is at US$56.44.

A larger pullback could reach the 61.8% retracement level at US$56.78, which is very close to the descending trendline resistance. This level is likely to act as strong resistance for this pullback.

If the retracement level or trendline resistance holds, WTI crude oil prices may resume their decline, retreating to recent lows and potentially breaking below US$54.87 per barrel to establish new lows. Conversely, a decisive break above the 61.8% retracement level and trendline would signal a resurgence of upward momentum.

The stochastic oscillator has climbed out of oversold territory and broken above the 50 midpoint, indicating buyers have gained some near-term momentum. However, the oscillator is approaching levels typically associated with bearish reversals, suggesting a move lower from current levels could signal sellers are poised to regain control. Nevertheless, the oscillator still has room to rise before reaching overbought conditions, implying the pullback may extend slightly further.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also rebounding from oversold territory, currently hovering near 40. The indicator remains some distance from the 50 midline, suggesting prices may continue to follow the RSI trend as buyers attempt to push prices higher.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 55.50

Target Price: 59.18

Stop Loss: 52.79

Valid Until: January 2, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 54.87, 53.96, 53.21

Resistance: 56.44, 56.78, 57.88

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices climbed to near a seven-week high during European early trading on Wednesday. Continued cooling in the U.S. labor market weighed on the dollar and boosted gold prices.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4370.00

Entry Price

4065.00

4398.00

4410.52 +71.99 +1.66%

191.6

Pips

Profit

4065.00

4350.84

Exit Price

4370.00

Entry Price

4398.00

Fundamentals

Following Tuesday's sharp volatility, gold prices resumed their upward trajectory on Wednesday; the continued cooling of the U.S. labor market weighed on the dollar and boosted gold prices.

Labor market data for October and November in the U.S. clearly revealed a weakening job market. Nonfarm payrolls plunged by 105,000 in October, marking the sharpest monthly decline since late 2020. While nonfarm employment rebounded by 64,000 in November—exceeding expectations—the increase was insufficient to offset the previous month's contraction. As a result, overall job growth has remained largely flat since April.

Labor market weakness continued to intensify. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding expectations and surpassing September's 4.4%. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate edged up to 62.5%, indicating that the rise in unemployment was partly attributable to workers re-entering the labor market rather than direct layoffs.

Wage growth provided little counterbalance. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% month-over-month, well below the previously expected 0.3%, further indicating that wage pressures are easing as labor demand cools. Weak net job gains, a rising unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth collectively reinforce the view that momentum in the U.S. labor market is weakening.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for November, released on Thursday, will be the market's focus. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be released on Friday. These reports may influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

Macroeconomic Bullishness Struggles to Mask Technical Pressure, and Bulls Face Test of Mean Reversion_1

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, as the spot market entered the European session, the strengthening recovery momentum of the U.S. dollar limited gold's upside potential, but cautious market sentiment helped the asset maintain stability.

However, judging by the medium-term trend of this asset, I reiterate yesterday's view: the reversal between price peaks and bottoms will ultimately revert to the mean. The path of least risk is downward.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4370

Target Price: 4065

Stop Loss: 4398

Valid Until: January 2, 2026 23:55:00

Support: 4307, 4297, 4281

Resistance: 4342, 4353, 4365

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/JPY climbed as the yen weakened broadly ahead of a highly anticipated Bank of Japan rate hike, while the euro lagged elsewhere amid expectations the ECB will stay cautious.

BUY EURJPY

EXP

TRADING

182.700

Entry Price

185.200

181.500

184.784 +0.198 +0.11%

0.0

Pips

Flat

181.500

Exit Price

182.700

Entry Price

185.200

The euro pushed higher against the Japanese yen during Wednesday’s European session, with EUR/JPY rising roughly 0.25% to trade near the 182.15 region, as broad-based weakness in the yen overshadowed otherwise firm expectations that the Bank of Japan is set to deliver another interest rate hike later this week. The move highlights a growing divergence in short-term market behavior: investors are positioning for tighter policy in Japan, yet the yen continues to underperform as capital flows and global yield dynamics remain unfavorable.

At the heart of the yen’s weakness is a familiar paradox. Markets are largely convinced that the BoJ will raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to around 0.75% at Friday’s monetary policy meeting, a move that would further cement Japan’s gradual exit from ultra-loose monetary settings. That expectation has been reinforced by comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda last week, who said the central bank is “closer to attaining its inflation target” and noted that the likelihood of its baseline outlook for growth and prices materialising has been “gradually increasing.”

Under normal circumstances, such language would be expected to lend support to the currency. Instead, the yen has struggled to attract sustained demand, suggesting that much of the tightening narrative is already priced in. Investors now appear less focused on the immediate hike and more concerned with what comes next: the pace, frequency and ultimate ceiling of future rate increases. With Japanese rates still extremely low by global standards, even another modest hike does little to alter the structural yield disadvantage facing the yen, particularly against European and US assets.

Against this backdrop, EUR/JPY strength has been driven as much by yen selling as by any meaningful enthusiasm for the euro itself. In fact, the single currency has underperformed most of its major peers as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to leave its Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 2%, with policymakers having signalled little urgency to adjust policy further now that inflation is hovering close to the bank’s medium-term target.

Recent commentary from ECB officials has reinforced the idea of a prolonged hold. With growth across the euro area fragile and signs of disinflation becoming more entrenched, the governing council appears comfortable maintaining restrictive settings for longer rather than pushing rates higher. For currency markets, this means the euro lacks a clear near-term catalyst, leaving it vulnerable to shifts in relative risk sentiment and external developments.

Economic data released on Wednesday did little to brighten the outlook for the euro. German business morale unexpectedly deteriorated in December, underscoring the challenges facing the bloc’s largest economy. The Ifo Institute’s Business Climate Index fell to 87.6 from 88.0 in November, defying expectations for a modest improvement to 88.2. The decline suggests that companies remain pessimistic about both current conditions and the months ahead, reinforcing concerns that the euro area recovery remains uneven and fragile.

From a broader perspective, the current EUR/JPY dynamic reflects a market caught between two central bank stories moving at different speeds. The BoJ is inching toward policy normalisation, but doing so cautiously enough that it has yet to fundamentally alter investor behaviour. The ECB, meanwhile, is firmly in wait-and-see mode, prioritising stability over surprise. Until one of these narratives shifts meaningfully, price action in EUR/JPY is likely to be driven more by positioning and technical factors than by fresh macro catalysts.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY continues to exhibit a constructive, if somewhat hesitant, bullish structure. The pair has repeatedly managed to close above the 182.50 support area, a sign that buyers remain in control despite the lack of strong momentum follow-through. The sideways price action seen recently reflects this imbalance: bullish intent is present, but conviction is limited.

Momentum indicators point to the need for a fresh bullish impulse. The stochastic oscillator has been fluctuating near the 20 level, signalling oversold conditions and hinting at the potential for renewed upside if buying pressure returns. A decisive push higher could see the pair challenge the 183.20 resistance zone. A clean break above this barrier would likely open the door to a broader extension toward the 185.20 region in the sessions ahead.

On the downside, failure to sustain gains above current support would expose EUR/JPY to corrective pressure. A move below the 182.00–182.50 area could trigger a deeper pullback, with initial downside targets seen near 181.40. Such a scenario would suggest that bullish momentum has faded, at least temporarily, and that the pair may need to consolidate further before attempting another advance.

The expected trading range for the session is between 182.00 and 183.20.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 182.70

STOP LOSS: 181.50

TAKE PROFIT: 185.20

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Forex

Summary:

EURAUD is trading around 1.770–1.775 after recent attempts to sustain higher levels met supply, and technical structure shows downside pressure as macro drivers weigh on the euro relative to the Australian dollar...

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.77300

Entry Price

1.76800

1.77800

1.76747 -0.00224 -0.13%

50.0

Pips

Loss

1.76800

1.77800

Exit Price

1.77300

Entry Price

1.77800

Market overview

Today’s EURAUD price action is within a tight intraday band near 1.7707, with highs around 1.7754 and lows near 1.7687, showing fading upside momentum despite prior range expansion. The pair’s current level is within its 52-week range (1.6353–1.8558) but has recently struggled around the 1.77–1.78 region.

Macro drivers are mixed but slightly bearish for the euro: the U.S. dollar weakness driven by softer employment data and uncertain rate paths can indirectly pressure EUR crosses as safe-haven AUD demand adjusts relative risk flows, while the European Central Bank is broadly expected to hold rates steady, reducing upside catalysts for the euro. At the same time, recent macro data shows the Australian dollar showing resilience after broader commodity market support and stronger local indicators, suggesting AUD could absorb weakness in risk sentiment better than the euro.

On the M15 timeframe, this translates into a scenario where minor rebounds toward intraday resistance are met with selling interest, reflecting an overall lack of conviction above current levels.

Market sentiment

Short-term sentiment around EURAUD is cautious and slightly bearish. Traders appear reluctant to push EURAUD significantly higher beyond short-term resistance near 1.7750–1.7780, with recent sentiment skew showing more participants expecting corrective declines than continuation up from current levels.

This reflects broader risk dynamics where the euro, lacking fresh bullish catalysts, has less traction relative to the AUD, which benefits from commodity correlations and steadier macro flows. While sentiment gauges vary slightly by provider, the prevailing theme is that upside attempts are being met with supply rather than strong buying, reinforcing a sell-on-rallies bias for EURAUD in the short term.

Technical analysis

EURAUD Faces Bearish Rejection Near 1.7750_1

Bollinger Bands (20,2) on the M15 chart show price probing the upper band early in the session but failing to hold above it, implying that bullish momentum is weakening and volatility is compressing toward the mid-band rather than expanding upward. A failure to close convincingly above the mid-line (20-period SMA) often signals distribution, where buyers are exhausted and shorts are stepping in.

Ichimoku (9,26,52) on M15 indicates price hugging or dipping below the lower edge of the cloud after brief spikes, with the Tenkan (conversion) line struggling to sustain above the Kijun (base) line another technical hint that the short-term trend favors downside pressure. In such contexts, cloud resistance above price often acts like a ceiling that keeps rallies capped unless a breakout occurs.

Stoch (5,3,3) is oscillating near neutral after recent rollovers from the overbought region, meaning that momentum has room to pivot downward again. A fresh downward crossover while price fails to exceed recent highs will reinforce bearish continuation potential.

Trade plan

Entry: 1.7730

Take Profit: 1.7680

Stop Loss: 1.7780

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Traders' Opinions

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTCUSDT (Bitcoin vs Tether) is trading under pressure around the $86,900–$87,600 range as volatility remains elevated and risk sentiment deteriorates. Today’s price action reflects continued ETF outflows and technical rejection from intermediate resistance,...

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

90000.0

Entry Price

86400.0

91000.0

89730.1 +1659.0 +1.88%

3600.0

Pips

Profit

86400.0

Exit Price

90000.0

Entry Price

91000.0

Market overview

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading near $90000 USDT, with short-term price action showing a failure to sustain a reclaim above the round-number resistance around $88,000.

On an M15 chart, this translates into lower highs being formed below the recent intraday bounce zone and a series of close-below pivot reactions rather than clean continuation upward. That price structure hints at supply dominance near intraday resistances, aligning with a broader market backdrop where flows remain cautious and short-term sellers are more active than buyers.

Market sentiment

Sentiment in the BTC market is tilted toward “extreme fear” as indicated by sentiment gauges and trade flows. A low Fear & Greed index reading reflects panic selling and traders stepping aside rather than chasing spikes.

Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered continued outflows, signaling that institutional demand is not just dormant but net negative on consecutive sessions, which often precedes deeper corrective moves as liquidity drains from the market.

These sentiment signals make rebound rallies vulnerable to aggressive selling, especially on shorter timeframes like M15 where market participants react quickly to every failed attempt at reclaiming resistance.

Technical analysis

Price remains below or near the mid-band after repeated tests of the upper band failed to produce strong continuation. On M15, this is bearish structure — with bands not expanding upward and candles closing below the mid-line, sellers are likely to remain in control. Repeated rejections at the mid and upper band without follow-through often foreshadow volatility contraction to the downside.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): Weak M15 momentum is evident where price action struggles to stay above the Ichimoku cloud after a brief bounce. If BTC cannot hold above the cloud and the conversion line (Tenkan) remains below the base line (Kijun), this signals bearish continuation pressure.

Stoch (5,3,3): Stochastic oscillators on M15 are prone to move from oversold toward mid-range and then roll over again — a behavior typical during corrections within a downtrend. A fresh downward crossing from the mid zone reinforces short-term selling pressure.

Trade plan

BTCUSDT Slides Below Key Support Near $90K_1

Entry: 90000 if price shows clear M15 rejection (long wick or bearish engulfing candle) below the recent intraday resistance and fails to close above the mid-Bollinger band.

Take Profit: 88000

Stop Loss: 91000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Traders' Opinions

Commodity

Summary:

XAUUSD (spot gold) is trading robustly above $4,300/oz, buoyed by softer U.S. jobs data and increased safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty. Gold touched intra-day highs around $4,335/oz and continued to hold up despite minor pullbacks, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks...

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4319.97

Entry Price

4365.00

4295.00

4410.52 +71.99 +1.66%

450.3

Pips

Profit

4295.00

4365.46

Exit Price

4319.97

Entry Price

4365.00

Market overview

Today’s gold price action reflects defensive positioning following the latest U.S. employment data, where rising unemployment and softer labor market metrics reinforced expectations of more accommodative Fed policy ahead. Spot gold is trading around $4,318–$4,330/oz, within a daily range of approximately $4,302 to $4,346/oz, showing resilience after short-term dips.

The broader background is a multi-session uptrend, with gold marking a significant weekly gain and flirting with record territory amid downside risk to growth and persistent inflation concerns. Safe-haven buying has been reinforced by macro jitters and geopolitical unrest, keeping premiums elevated even when risk assets show mixed performance. Gold’s extended uptrend means bulls are not yet exhausted and, on the M15 timeframe, price frequently tests support and seeks fresh highs as traders recalibrate after each pullback.

Market sentiment

Short-term sentiment remains tilted toward bullish conviction for gold, driven by both fundamental and technical setups. The recent rise in gold prices has coincided with weaker U.S. labor data, which tends to bolster rate-cut expectations and supports the narrative that real yields could stay lower for longer, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Additionally, silver’s record surge and strength in other precious metals reinforce a broader risk-off and safe-haven demand profile across commodities. This positioning suggests that dips are more likely to attract buying interest rather than triggering prolonged selloffs. While sentiment is cautiously optimistic rather than euphoric, this environment is healthy for controlled upside continuation rather than exhaustion, especially on shorter timeframes such as M15, where traders look for entry on pullbacks rather than moments of peak fear.

Technical analysis

Gold Poised for Upside Breakout as Safe-Haven Demand Surges_1

On M15, Bollinger Bands (20,2) show price consolidating above the mid-band, with frequent probes toward the upper band. This pattern suggests that the recent corrective declines have not structurally broken the M15 bullish environment; instead, they represent typical mean reversion within a broad uptrend. The mid-band is acting as dynamic support rather than resistance, indicating short-term buyers consistently step in near value zones.

The Ichimoku (9,26,52) structure on M15 shows price maintaining levels above or within the lower edge of the cloud after retracements, with the Tenkan (conversion) line pulling above the Kijun (base) line when the market finds support. This alignment conversion line above base line after a pullback is a classic bullish momentum sign.

Finally, the Stochastic (5,3,3) oscillator typically cycles from oversold to renewed upward crossovers during corrective lows, implying that each pullback has been a buying opportunity rather than a reversal of trend. Together, these indicators support a continuation bias in gold’s short-term trend, with higher probability for upside breakout than for structural failure.