Gold Eyes $3,355 After Bullish Breakout; Moody’s Downgrade Adds Fuel to Rally

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices remain buoyed above $3,250 amid lingering fallout from the US credit downgrade by Moody’s and geopolitical tremors stemming from President Trump’s Ukraine policy stance.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3274.51

Entry Price

3355.00

3200.00

4339.66 +40.27 +0.94%

359.9

Pips

Profit

3200.00

3310.50

Exit Price

3274.51

Entry Price

3355.00

Gold markets remained relatively firm on Tuesday, with spot prices for XAU/USD trading near $3,280 at the time of writing. The precious metal extended its cautious uptrend after Monday’s broad-based volatility, sparked by Moody’s downgrade of the United States’ credit outlook. The move has kept investors on edge, raising concerns over fiscal stability, monetary policy clarity, and the broader geopolitical landscape.

The precious metal has found renewed haven demand, even as some of the initial panic tied to the downgrade begins to wane. Moody’s shift in US credit sentiment—though largely symbolic—has injected fresh caution into the markets, especially as fiscal pressures mount in Washington and the political landscape remains sharply polarized.

On Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged the ripple effects of Moody’s downgrade during a public address. He warned that the rating change could weigh on borrowing costs and investor confidence, stating that the US economy may require another “three to six months” to see whether this fiscal shadow evolves into something more systemic. His comments added to a growing list of Federal Reserve officials who have voiced concerns that markets are underestimating the risks associated with US sovereign credit.

Meanwhile, US Treasuries are treading water after sharp swings to open the week. The yield curve saw significant churn on Monday, with two- and ten-year yields spiking before paring gains by the close of session. On Tuesday, yields remained stable, although futures on major equity indices ticked lower by around 0.3%, underscoring the market's unease.

The geopolitical backdrop has grown increasingly complex as well. Former President Donald Trump—widely expected to be a frontrunner in the upcoming US elections—sparked controversy following a candid recount of a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking to reporters, Trump suggested that the United States could fully disengage from ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

"There are some big egos involved, and if it doesn't work out, I'm just going to back away," Trump remarked, reiterating his prior stance with the line: “This is not my war.” Those comments represent a sharp deviation from his earlier campaign promise to resolve the Ukraine conflict within the first 100 days of office.

According to Reuters, Trump's rhetoric raised alarms among foreign policy analysts and market observers alike, casting doubt on future US commitments to NATO and Eastern European security. The uncertainty is also filtering through commodities markets, where gold continues to act as a geopolitical hedge.

While Trump's comments do not yet constitute official policy, they hint at a potential US withdrawal from high-stakes negotiations—a move that could embolden Russia and destabilize the region. Such outcomes would likely reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal, particularly if diplomatic tensions intensify.

Adding another wrinkle to the gold story is a fresh development in US mining policy. Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration has granted a key federal permit to Perpetua Resources Corp. for its Stibnite Gold Project in Idaho. The mine is not only rich in gold but also antimony—a critical mineral used in ammunition and various high-tech applications.

The permit, issued under the Clean Water Act by the US Army Corps of Engineers, signals a broader push for domestic resource independence. Doug Burgum, Interior Secretary and chair of the National Energy Dominance Council, praised the project as essential to national security and economic resilience.

While the project will take years to come online, it reflects a growing interest in gold not just as a monetary asset but also as a strategic commodity. This long-term narrative could lend support to gold prices, particularly as policymakers push for less reliance on foreign supply chains.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold appears to have completed a bullish breakout from a well-defined accumulation pattern. Price action over the past several sessions has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders structure—typically a powerful signal of a bullish reversal.

Currently, gold is retesting a major high-timeframe structure aligned with the 61.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If prices hold above the $3,250–$3,280 support zone, the next immediate target is $3,355. A clean break of that level could open the path toward the $3,435 resistance zone, a level that has historically acted as a magnet for bullish momentum.

Short-term dips are likely to be bought, as long as macro uncertainty persists. Despite a muted pullback of about 0.5% earlier in the session due to declining safe-haven demand, the underlying bullish structure remains intact.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3275

STOP LOSS: 3200

TAKE PROFIT: 3355

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/JPY slips to near 162.70 as growing conviction that the Bank of Japan may hike rates again contrasts sharply with expectations of deeper rate cuts from the European Central Bank.

SELL EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

162.600

Entry Price

160.000

164.000

182.262 -0.667 -0.36%

45.1

Pips

Profit

160.000

162.149

Exit Price

162.600

Entry Price

164.000

The euro weakened against the Japanese yen in early Tuesday trading, with the EUR/JPY cross dipping to approximately 162.70 as the European session began. The decline reflects widening expectations of monetary policy divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), a dynamic that continues to drive the pair lower.

Market sentiment increasingly favors the Japanese yen as BoJ policymakers, including Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, adopt a more hawkish tone. Speaking early Tuesday, Uchida reiterated that Japan's central bank is prepared to continue lifting interest rates if the domestic economy and price trends evolve as projected, even in the face of looming external risks such as higher U.S. tariffs. The comments echo the latest Summary of Opinions from the BoJ’s most recent policy meeting, in which several board members expressed readiness to resume rate hikes should geopolitical and economic uncertainties — particularly those stemming from U.S. trade policy — stabilize.

This cautious optimism on Japan’s inflation trajectory and economic resilience has sparked renewed interest in the yen, especially as it appears increasingly likely that the BoJ is not done with its tightening cycle. The tone sharply contrasts with developments in the Eurozone, where policymakers are signaling greater readiness to ease.

Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch added fuel to speculation that the ECB will soon pivot to a looser stance. Wunsch stated that Eurozone interest rates could dip “slightly below 2%,” citing persistent downside risks to inflation and growth — risks further exacerbated by the global trade climate and weak consumer demand. Wunsch’s dovish remarks come as traders have already priced in a 90% probability of a rate cut at the June 6 meeting, according to Reuters data.

Other ECB officials, including Piero Cipollone and Klaas Knot, are expected to speak later on Tuesday, with market participants watching closely for additional clarity on the timing and scale of future rate reductions. While Knot has historically leaned hawkish, any softening in his tone could reinforce expectations that the ECB is ready to shift into an easing mode sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile, the broader macroeconomic backdrop in the Eurozone remains concerning. Growth continues to sputter, and inflation — although once stubbornly high — has softened to the point where disinflationary risks are now part of the conversation among central bank officials. This shift has contributed to the euro’s underperformance, particularly against currencies tied to more hawkish monetary outlooks.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY’s bearish momentum is gaining traction. The pair has broken decisively below a key ascending trendline, now trading beneath the significant structural resistance at 163.50. Price action suggests the formation of a lower high, which typically precedes a continuation of downward momentum. Provided the pair remains capped under the 162.50 invalidation level, the technical bias remains bearish, with analysts eyeing a potential move toward the 160.00 handle in the coming sessions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 162.60

STOP LOSS: 164.00

TAKE PROFIT: 160.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin's technical outlook remains bullish. In the 1D timeframe, it shows prices consistently above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, confirming an upward trend. However, the potential for flash crashes warrants close monitoring.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

105291.0

Entry Price

99000.0

108500.0

89469.0 +441.3 +0.50%

3209.0

Pips

Loss

99000.0

108500.0

Exit Price

105291.0

Entry Price

108500.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin experienced a volatile session on Monday, initially declining sharply before staging a significant rebound, fluctuating by as much as US$5,000. The cryptocurrency initially reacted negatively to the U.S. credit rating downgrade, breaching the lower boundary of its recent consolidation range. Prior to this, bullish momentum faced robust resistance near new highs. The subsequent strong recovery suggests sustained buying interest and limited downside potential.

The broader bullish outlook is expected to persist, provided the price maintains above US$100,000, with potential tests of the all-time high and the US$110,000 level.

On the volume front, on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's trading volume on Binance reached 32,000 BTC on May 19, a 20% increase from the previous day, signaling active buying.

Bitcoin's options and basis data indicate bullish sentiment, with positive positioning in call options and perpetual contract basis rates, reflecting institutional and speculative bullish expectations. However, an elevated basis suggests potential liquidation risks.

Currently priced at US$105,314, Bitcoin is in a strong upward channel, supported by bullish momentum and trading volume, which suggests further gains. Short-term overbought conditions and macroeconomic interest rate fluctuations pose potential correction risks. Strategic implementation of a dollar-cost averaging approach near support levels and profit-taking near resistance levels will help manage risk-reward dynamics.

Be Vigilant for Potential Flash Crashes_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is currently priced at US$105,314, with technical indicators still exhibiting a bullish trend. In the 1D timeframe, it shows prices consistently above both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, confirming an upward trajectory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 58, well below overbought levels, suggesting continued upward momentum. The MACD histogram remains positive, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

The price action is within an ascending channel established since April, with support at US$101,000 - US$103,000 and resistance between US$110,000 - US$112,000.

Increased trading volume and on-chain activity support the bullish momentum. However, there is a need to be cautious of potential short-term corrections, and key support and resistance levels may not withstand a flash crash scenario. Unexpected events are possible, as seen during the period of January 25-26, when the market was in a state of flux.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 105,400

Target Price: 99000

Stop Loss: 108500

Valid Until: June 4, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 102187, 101494, 100756

Resistance: 107173, 108420, 109343

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Economic

Summary:

The Japanese Yen extends gains amid rising expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes in 2025 and optimism over a potential US-Japan trade pact.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

144.500

Entry Price

141.000

147.000

155.048 -0.766 -0.49%

84.4

Pips

Profit

141.000

143.656

Exit Price

144.500

Entry Price

147.000

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued its ascent on Tuesday, reaching near two-week highs against the US Dollar (USD) as investors increasingly price in the likelihood of further Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hikes in 2025. This comes amid a backdrop of widening monetary policy divergence between Tokyo and Washington and a cautious reappraisal of global risk, with developments ranging from easing US-China tensions to renewed Middle East and Eastern European geopolitical instability.

The JPY’s upward momentum gained traction during the early European session, with USD/JPY retreating steadily as traders digested a confluence of supportive macro and geopolitical factors. Despite a broadly improved risk tone globally, the Yen remains well bid — a testament to growing expectations that Japan’s monetary policy is entering a normalization phase after years of ultra-accommodation.

The core catalyst fueling the Yen’s strength lies in increasingly hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan. On Monday, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that inflation in Japan may re-accelerate following a temporary lull, reinforcing the case for further rate increases — a rare and significant pivot for a central bank long known for its dovish bias. Uchida emphasized that should price trends and economic activity unfold as expected, the BoJ "will act accordingly" to tighten policy.

This view was echoed in the BoJ’s latest Summary of Opinions, which highlighted a notable shift in internal policy discourse. Some board members reportedly see room to resume hikes, particularly if global uncertainty — including the disruptive influence of US tariffs — begins to recede.

Such forward-looking policy signals are pulling the Yen out of its traditional safe-haven silo and repositioning it as a yield-sensitive currency for the first time in over a decade.

Supporting the JPY further is renewed optimism surrounding US-Japan trade relations. Market chatter around a potential bilateral agreement has buoyed sentiment, even as concrete details remain scarce. Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato confirmed that FX coordination talks were scheduled on the sidelines of the G7 finance ministers' summit. However, with reports suggesting US Treasury Secretary Bessent may skip the meeting, expectations are tempered.

Nonetheless, the positive tone reinforces the market’s current inclination to favor the Yen over the Dollar — a sentiment rooted more deeply in monetary policy divergences than in day-to-day geopolitical developments.

While the BoJ appears increasingly inclined to tighten, the US Federal Reserve finds itself in a murky middle ground. US inflation readings last week — both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — indicated cooling price pressures. Coupled with lackluster retail sales data, these figures have strengthened the case for economic softness extending into the second half of 2025.

Despite this, Fed officials remain reluctant to endorse near-term rate cuts. New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic suggested on Monday that cuts may not arrive until after September, if at all. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson added that a “wait-and-see” approach is prudent to avoid embedding transient price spikes into broader inflation expectations.

Yet, markets are not convinced. Futures pricing reflects expectations of two 25-basis-point cuts by year-end — a disconnect that leaves the Dollar vulnerable to downside pressure should incoming data continue to soften.

Risk sentiment also improved modestly after former US President Donald Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to enter ceasefire talks. While the announcement lacked official confirmation, the notion of a de-escalation in Europe added to the overall risk-on tone.

In the Middle East, however, risks remained elevated. Israel expanded ground operations in Gaza, issuing new evacuation orders in Khan Yunis. These developments serve as a reminder that geopolitical flare-ups remain a potential wild card — one that could intermittently favor haven assets like the Yen, even if current momentum is driven more by central bank policy.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is flashing bearish signals that align with the broader fundamental story. On the 2-hour chart, the pair has completed a Head and Shoulders pattern — a classic bearish reversal formation. The neckline has been broken decisively, confirming the setup.

Price action now suggests a potential retest of the neckline near the 145.00 handle, which may serve as a springboard for further downside. The projected target derived from the pattern implies a move toward the 141.95–141.00 zone — a decline of roughly 300 pips from current levels. Momentum indicators, including RSI and MACD, have also flipped bearish, reinforcing the near-term downside bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 144.50

STOP LOSS: 147.00

TAKE PROFIT: 141.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while signaling that the easing cycle may be prolonged. This suggests the Australian dollar (AUD) could face significant depreciation pressure.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64173

Entry Price

0.60100

0.65200

0.66514 -0.00006 -0.01%

102.7

Pips

Loss

0.60100

0.65200

Exit Price

0.64173

Entry Price

0.65200

Fundamentals

The current depreciation pressure on AUD/USD stems from the combined effects of diverging monetary policies and structural economic contradictions.

Earlier today, the RBA lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations. However, the dovish tone of its policy statement heightened expectations for further easing. The RBA specifically highlighted "weak domestic demand" and "external tariff shocks," implying that the rate-cutting cycle may extend amid downward revisions to economic growth. This stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate policy, directly undermining the AUD's carry-trade appeal.

Meanwhile, internal contradictions in economic data further reinforce the bearish case. Although Q1 wage growth of 3.4% exceeded expectations, the increase was primarily driven by the public sector (3.6%), while private-sector wage growth stagnated at 3.3%. Additionally, productivity declined for two consecutive quarters (-1.2%), and rising unit labor costs may squeeze corporate profits, dampening investment momentum. The seemingly robust labor market also hides underlying weaknesses: April saw 89,000 new jobs, far exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. Moreover, rising labor participation suggests an oversupply of workers, casting doubt on the sustainability of wage growth. At the same time, retail sales grew just 0.1%, and consumer confidence remains weak, highlighting the disconnect between domestic demand and employment data.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD exhibits a clear depreciating trend in the weekly chart. Besides, the moving average system maintains a bearish alignment, indicating strong continuation potential. Additionally, the currency pair broke below the low set in October 2022 this January, further opening the space for additional downside.

Currently, AUDUSD has closed with long upper-shadow bearish candles for two consecutive weeks below the 0.6500 resistance level, confirming strong selling pressure. This level also coincides with the MA60, creating a confluence of resistance from both the moving average and the key level, further increasing the likelihood of a decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6420

Target price: 0.6010

Stop loss: 0.6520

Valid Until: June 3, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 0.6356/0.6000

Resistance: 0.6464/0.6514

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

During the European session on Monday, GBPUSD further rebounded and broke above 1.3400, primarily driven by renewed pressure on the US dollar following Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33400

Entry Price

1.36000

1.30900

1.33859 +0.00152 +0.11%

183.9

Pips

Profit

1.30900

1.35239

Exit Price

1.33400

Entry Price

1.36000

Fundamentals

During the European session on Monday, GBPUSD recovered from last week's decline, trading around 1.3400. The rebound was mainly triggered by Moody's Investors Service downgrading the US credit rating by one notch (from Aaa to Aa1), which led to renewed pressure on the US dollar. Moody's cited the continuous rise in US debt levels and the increasing burden of interest payments as the primary concerns.

This move by Moody's aligns with the downgrades by Fitch Ratings in 2023 and Standard & Poor's in 2011. Moody's currently forecasts that by 2035, US federal debt will account for approximately 134% of GDP, up from 98% in 2023. The federal deficit is expected to widen to nearly 9% of GDP, driven by rising debt repayment costs, increased welfare spending, and declining tax revenues.

In contrast, the UK economy saw an unexpected expansion in the first quarter of 2025. However, inflationary pressures and a weak labor market pose multiple challenges for the pound. The UK's real GDP grew by 0.7% QoQ in Q1 2025, exceeding market expectations. The CPI annual rate was 2.6% in March but is expected to surge to around 3.3% in April. The unemployment rate rose to 4.5%, the highest since 2021. Additionally, the Bank of England's cautious stance between rate cuts and maintaining interest rates has led to market divisions over the short-term trajectory of the pound.

Overall, if macroeconomic data continue to improve, the pound is likely to strengthen. However, investors should be vigilant about potential downside risks from global trade uncertainties and changes in domestic fiscal policies.

Technical Analysis

During the day, the trend of GBPUSD remains neutral with a slight upward bias. After breaking below the 1.3200 consolidation range previously, the pair is likely to continue a range-bound trading pattern. However, bulls have maintained control above the MA20, indicating a near-term bullish bias.

On the upside, a decisive break above the key resistance level of 1.3433 would confirm the resumption of a more significant upward trend. Conversely, a drop below 1.3138 would reinitiate the pullback from 1.3442. However, downside space should be limited by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (1.2929) of the 1.2099 to 1.3442 range. Should this level be triggered, a rebound is likely.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.3340

Target Price: 1.3600

Stop Loss: 1.3090

Valid Until: June 3, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.3315/1.3243/1.3142

Resistance: 1.3443/1.3549/1.3653

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A decisive close above the 100-period moving average could act as a catalyst for a stronger bullish move toward the upper boundary of the wedge.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.39570

Entry Price

1.41000

1.38900

1.37565 -0.00135 -0.10%

67.0

Pips

Loss

1.38900

Exit Price

1.39570

Entry Price

1.41000

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson emphasized on Monday that the U.S. economy continues to face risks on both inflation and employment fronts, underscoring the need for a cautious and measured approach to interest rate decisions. He highlighted that many of these risks are tied to pending policy decisions by the U.S. administration, which remain uncertain for now. Jefferson also warned that recently imposed tariffs could trigger a one-off spike in prices and stressed the importance of preventing such shocks from developing into entrenched inflation.

Adding to the already complex macroeconomic backdrop, Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of the United States after markets closed on Friday. The rating agency cited a sustained and substantial increase in debt servicing costs, which now far exceed those of peer economies with similar credit profiles. Moody’s noted that the U.S. government's interest payment obligations are “significantly higher than those of sovereigns with comparable ratings.”

This downgrade reflects growing concerns about Washington’s ongoing inability to establish and execute long-term fiscal reforms. Moody’s emphasized that repeated failures by Congress and successive administrations to address the country’s ballooning budget deficits and rising debt costs have weakened the fiscal outlook.

Meanwhile, the latest data on U.S. consumer sentiment painted a concerning picture. Preliminary results from the University of Michigan’s survey showed a sharp decline in sentiment to 50.8—its second-lowest reading in history. Simultaneously, short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly surged, with consumers now projecting a 7.3% increase in prices over the next year. This is the highest figure since 1981, suggesting that Americans are bracing for prolonged inflationary pressure, which could compel the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer despite weakening sentiment.

On the inflation front, the April Producer Price Index (PPI) came in well below expectations. Headline PPI dropped 0.5% month-over-month, while core PPI contracted by 0.4%. This softer-than-expected print raises fresh doubts about the pricing power of U.S. businesses and points to the possibility of slowing economic momentum ahead.

Despite these warning signals, Federal Reserve officials remain prudent. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated that while a slowdown in growth is possible, it does not necessarily mean the U.S. is heading toward a recession. His comments support the Fed’s current stance of monitoring incoming data before making further policy adjustments.

Turning to Canada, last Friday’s disappointing jobs report revealed slower employment growth and a rising unemployment rate, dampening expectations for additional rate hikes by the Bank of Canada. The central bank’s calendar remains quiet, and markets are still pricing in approximately two 25-basis-point rate cuts by December. In the near term, price action appears to be anchored by the recent lows established during last week’s Trump-Carney meeting.

On the political front, U.S. Vice President JD Vance met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Sunday to discuss fair trade policies. This renewed dialogue has fueled optimism for a future U.S.-Canada trade deal, offering some support to the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, the renegotiation of the USMCA is expected to move more slowly than previous transcontinental trade agreements, presenting challenges for both nations. Consolidation Within Wedge Could Set the Stage for a Bullish Extension_1

Consolidation Within Wedge Could Set the Stage for a Bullish Extension_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, finding support at the 200-period moving average on the one-hour chart. A decisive close above the 100-period moving average could act as a catalyst for a stronger bullish move toward the upper boundary of the wedge. If that resistance is breached, momentum could accelerate further, potentially driving the pair toward the 1.4100 level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 47, indicating a neutral stance and leaving room for further upside. On the flip side, a break below the lower trendline of the wedge would invalidate the current bullish setup and could open the door to renewed bearish momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3954

Target price: 1.4100

Stop loss: 1.3890

Validity: May 30, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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