Market Still Has Upside Potential

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The recent Pectra upgrade has enhanced transaction efficiency and scalability, yet it hasn't immediately impacted prices. Meanwhile, institutional ETH ETF applications and continued accumulation by whale addresses offer mid- to long-term support.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

2591.40

Entry Price

2785.00

2270.00

3132.43 +105.47 +3.48%

529.9

Pips

Profit

2270.00

2644.39

Exit Price

2591.40

Entry Price

2785.00

Fundamentals

Ethereum's price surged last week, fueled by increased inflows into staking protocols. This buying pressure drove ETH to its largest weekly gain since December 2020, reaching 40%.

The recent Pectra upgrade, the most significant update since the 2022 Merge, encompasses 11 improvement proposals, primarily enhancing transaction speeds and reducing costs. It also expands the single-node staking limit from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, potentially attracting larger stakers.

The global crypto market sentiment, as measured by the Fear & Greed Index, currently indicates moderate "greed," suggesting potential short-term buying interest. Meanwhile, a divergence exists between retail and institutional investors, with institutions primarily hedging their positions through spot and futures markets.

Technical Analysis

Ethereum surged 40% last week, climbing from US$1,800 to approximately US$2,627, marking its largest weekly gain since December 2020. Following three consecutive days of gains, the second-largest cryptocurrency faced rejection near its 200-day SMA, with bears targeting the US$2,867 resistance level.

Currently trading around US$2,485, Ethereum is consolidating within a range established since the beginning of the year. The 4-hour technical analysis reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, with a breakout above US$2,867 potentially signaling further upside. The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator are in overbought territory, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.

Conversely, a breach below the US$2,275 short-term support level warrants caution for a potential correction. A break below the US$2,110 range would invalidate the bullish structure, potentially leading to a decline towards the 50-day SMA support.

Overall, it is recommended to accumulate positions near key support levels, with close attention to the breakout levels at US$2,867 and US$3,000.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2360

Target Price: 2785

Stop Loss: 2270

Valid Until: May 28, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2408, 2356, 2320

Resistance: 2627, 2729, 2867

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Central Bank

Commodity

Summary:

If prices manage to hold above this critical support and avoid breaking lower, there is a possibility of a rebound toward the upper boundary of the descending trendline.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3250.56

Entry Price

3370.00

3150.00

4218.18 +20.27 +0.48%

1005.6

Pips

Loss

3150.00

3149.99

Exit Price

3250.56

Entry Price

3370.00

U.S. inflation appears to be cooling, as reflected in the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Both the headline and core CPI rose by 0.2% in April, coming in below market expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase. On an annual basis, core inflation—which excludes food and energy—remained steady at 2.8%, showing no signs of acceleration.

This softer inflation print has once again shifted market attention to the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is unlikely to act immediately, the latest figures have fueled renewed speculation around a potential rate cut in the months ahead. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut at the June 18 policy meeting remains low at just 8.2%. However, expectations increase to 38.6% for July and surge to 77.1% for September, indicating that market participants anticipate easing to begin in the second half of the year.

Despite this, several voices within and outside the Fed have urged caution. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that even current levels of tariffs could continue to exert upward pressure on prices, according to a report by The New York Times. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analysts noted that any softening in trade tensions with China is unlikely to prompt an aggressive shift in Fed policy.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler added to the cautious tone, stating that policymakers are finding it increasingly difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the U.S. economy. She cited abrupt shifts in trade policy and their ripple effects on both households and businesses—many of which accelerated imports earlier this year to get ahead of possible tariff changes.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump characterized recent trade talks with China in Switzerland as “very good,” suggesting that both sides are working toward a “complete reset” of their trade relationship. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the negotiations, mentioned that “substantial progress” had been made. Markets are now assessing how new tariffs might be balanced by exemptions currently under discussion.

On Monday, President Trump also addressed trade relations with the European Union, stating that the U.S. holds a clear advantage in negotiations. “The EU is, in many ways, tougher than China. We’re just getting started with them. We hold all the cards. They’ve treated us very unfairly,” he said during a press event at the White House.

Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are trading around 4.47%, with investors weighing stable CPI data against potential future rate cuts. These developments are also influencing broader market sentiment, particularly in safe-haven assets. Gold Eyes a Bounce from Key Technical Confluence_1

Gold Eyes a Bounce from Key Technical Confluence_1

Technical Analysis

Gold has recently found support near the 2,302 level—a zone where price has bounced three times previously. This area coincides with the 200-period moving average on the daily chart, and price is currently hovering just above it. The technical confluence here may act as a magnet for buyers, suggesting that this level could serve as a launching point for a potential bullish recovery.

If prices manage to hold above this critical support and avoid breaking lower, there is a possibility of a rebound toward the upper boundary of the descending trendline. This zone will be key in determining whether bullish momentum can be sustained. A failure to establish a new higher high in that region would suggest lingering bearish sentiment remains dominant.

Moreover, the RSI has dropped to the 32 level, approaching oversold territory. A subtle bullish divergence is forming, supported by an emerging ascending trendline on the RSI. This divergence, combined with proximity to the 200-period moving average and prior support, may strengthen the case for a recovery toward the 3,372 zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3248

Target price: 3370

Stop loss: 3150

Validity: May 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

WTI crude oil prices surged toward $62 per barrel as the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce, improving the global demand outlook.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

62.492

Entry Price

66.000

60.000

59.974 +0.165 +0.28%

50.8

Pips

Profit

60.000

63.000

Exit Price

62.492

Entry Price

66.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures extended their winning streak into a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, surging to just under the $62.00 per barrel mark on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The rally was powered by renewed optimism in global trade dynamics following a significant 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement between the United States and China — the world’s two largest economies.

The agreement, reached on Monday, saw both Washington and Beijing commit to temporarily reducing import duties, with the U.S. scaling back tariffs to 10% and China adjusting its own levies to 30%. This mutual de-escalation has ignited hopes of improved global trade flows, reinvigorated demand for energy commodities, and lifted market sentiment across risk-sensitive assets, including oil.

Crucially, Beijing remains the world's largest energy importer, and any signs of improved U.S.-China trade relations tend to have a disproportionately bullish impact on crude oil prices. The easing of tariff tensions reduces the threat of prolonged demand destruction, which had previously clouded the outlook for global economic growth and, by extension, energy consumption.

“The 90-day truce is a welcome breather for crude bulls,” said Martin Bellamy, senior commodities strategist at Astera Capital. “It provides a window of stability that had been missing for much of the year, especially as the broader macro backdrop has been strained by fears of stagflation and geopolitical turmoil.”

The positive momentum in oil was also fueled by diminishing market expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting. Before the trade truce announcement, dovish sentiment had gripped the bond market, with traders pricing in a high likelihood of monetary easing to offset risks from slowing global trade. But that calculus shifted swiftly on Monday.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in July plunged to 38.6%, down sharply from 78% just one week earlier. Fed officials offered upbeat assessments in the wake of the U.S.-China détente, noting that the potential inflationary impact of tariffs might be lower than previously feared. However, they remained cautious, warning that longer-term inflation dynamics remain complex and unpredictable.

“The Fed appears to be in a wait-and-see mode now,” remarked Danielle Harper, U.S. macroeconomics lead at Frontier Global. “They’re not going to pull the trigger on rate cuts unless downside risks to growth re-emerge decisively. The oil market is responding accordingly — reduced rate-cut bets support the dollar, but the stronger demand outlook is still the dominant narrative.”

The next major catalyst for oil prices may come from the political front. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pressed for a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposing neutral ground in Turkey for Thursday’s high-stakes talks.

While the Kremlin has yet to confirm its participation, a potential diplomatic breakthrough could have broad implications for global energy markets. Although Russian oil exports have continued despite sanctions, any thawing of hostilities could ease concerns over global supply disruptions or retaliatory sanctions, which in turn could moderate recent price gains.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is showing strong bullish tendencies. Prices have reclaimed the key resistance level at $61.70, which is now acting as a short-term support zone. The recent price action suggests a continuation of a corrective bullish trend, reinforced by relative strength index (RSI) readings that have exited oversold territory and are now forming a positive divergence.

This technical setup points to further upside potential, especially if macro and geopolitical catalysts continue to align favorably. Traders will be closely watching for confirmation of a sustained breakout above $62.50 — a level that, if breached, could open the door to a test of the $66.00 zone in the coming sessions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 62.50

STOP LOSS: 60.00

TAKE PROFIT: 66.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Japanese Yen steadies around 148.00 per Dollar as markets digest easing US-China trade tensions and Japan’s cautious yet hawkish central bank stance.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

148.200

Entry Price

151.000

146.000

155.150 -0.195 -0.13%

220.0

Pips

Loss

146.000

Exit Price

148.200

Entry Price

151.000

The Japanese Yen (JPY) stabilized around the 148.00 level against the US Dollar (USD) in Tuesday trading, following a sharp depreciation in the prior session. This pause in the USD/JPY rally comes as markets digest mixed signals from recent geopolitical developments and central bank rhetoric, setting the stage for a pivotal U.S. inflation report later in the day.

The initial downward momentum in the Yen, which briefly took the pair toward its recent highs, has been tempered by a broader recovery in risk sentiment. Over the weekend, a breakthrough in US-China trade relations provided a tailwind for markets. Negotiators from both nations met in Switzerland and agreed on a temporary reduction of tariffs—cutting US levies on Chinese imports to 10%, and Chinese tariffs on American goods to 30%, for a 90-day period. While far from a permanent resolution, this detente has been enough to restore some investor confidence and buoy risk assets globally.

Despite the apparent easing in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, Japan’s own trade negotiations with the United States remain in a holding pattern. Tokyo has taken a noticeably firmer stance, appearing unwilling to concede quickly in the face of U.S. pressure. According to analysts, Japanese officials may be playing for time—hoping that internal political dynamics in the U.S., particularly ahead of upcoming election cycles, might eventually produce a more favorable negotiating position.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is staying the course with its gradual policy normalization strategy. In remarks to the Japanese parliament on Tuesday, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reaffirmed the central bank’s cautiously hawkish tone. Uchida noted that the BoJ continues to expect a sustained rise in both wages and prices, underscoring confidence in the country's underlying inflation dynamics despite external headwinds.

Crucially, Uchida stated that while the U.S. tariffs pose a risk to near-term growth, they are unlikely to derail the BoJ’s broader inflation and economic projections. If the current trajectory holds, the central bank remains open to further interest rate hikes. This outlook aligns with the tone of the BoJ’s most recent policy meeting summary, which characterized the tariff impact as a short-term shock, rather than a threat to long-term economic stability.

Still, the BoJ emphasized flexibility, acknowledging that global uncertainties—ranging from geopolitical instability to volatile commodity prices—necessitate a watchful and adaptive approach. Market participants continue to assess the likelihood that Japan's central bank may tighten policy further before year-end, particularly if domestic inflation remains above the BoJ’s 2% target.

As the Yen finds a temporary footing, investor attention is now squarely on the upcoming release of April's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for later Tuesday. Forecasts suggest headline CPI will rise by 0.3% month-over-month, maintaining an annual rate of 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to climb by 0.3% on the month, with the year-over-year figure holding steady at 2.8%.

Should inflation figures exceed expectations, the USD could extend its recent strength as markets recalibrate the timing and scale of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Conversely, a softer-than-anticipated print may revive bets on a dovish Fed pivot, placing renewed pressure on the Dollar and lifting the Yen as investors seek safer havens.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has entered a consolidation phase after facing resistance at 148.13. This level has proven to be a critical barrier in recent sessions. The pair has pulled back slightly, as traders digest prior gains and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) shows signs of overbought conditions. A minor correction could be underway, allowing the pair to build fresh upside momentum.

However, the broader trend remains bullish. Should USD/JPY decisively breach the 148.13 resistance, it may open the door for a further leg higher toward the psychological 151.00 mark—a level last tested during key policy divergence periods between the BoJ and Fed. The bullish correctional structure remains intact, supported by fundamental divergence and favorable risk dynamics.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 148.20

STOP LOSS: 146.00

TAKE PROFIT: 151.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Yesterday, WTI surged rapidly on news of a U.S.-China trade agreement, but OPEC+'s continued production increase plans keep supply-side pressures elevated.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

63.600

Entry Price

55.500

65.500

59.974 +0.165 +0.28%

322.1

Pips

Profit

55.500

60.379

Exit Price

63.600

Entry Price

65.500

Fundamentals

The world's two largest economies announced a temporary agreement to reduce reciprocal tariffs, easing recession fears and triggering a sharp rebound in WTI, which peaked at $63.00.

While short-term sentiment improved after the tariff-cutting agreement, mid-to-long-term supply-demand imbalances and policy constraints dominate. The U.S.-China joint statement suspended 24% tariffs and pledged negotiation mechanisms, but omitted energy sector collaboration. With China's EV penetration rate already at 45%, traditional crude demand growth remains constrained.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans a second consecutive monthly output hike in June (+500,000 barrels/day), with actual production exceeding quotas by 30%. Moreover, Russia confirms the long-term target to boost output to 10.8 million barrels/day by 2050, further amplifying supply pressures.

Technical Analysis

Mid-Term Bearish Outlook, Awaiting End of Rebound_1

After getting supported, WTI rebounded and closed with a long upper shadow, signaling growing resistance and increasing downside risks.

The daily chart shows WTI trading within a clear downtrend channel, with moving averages in a bearish alignment, confirming sustained downward momentum.

Now, WTI is likely to rebound and test the 65.00 resistance. If a weakening signal emerges later, WTI will extend the downtrend and test the support at 55.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 63.60

Target price: 55.50

Stop loss: 65.50

Valid Until: May 27, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 59.40/55.00

Resistance: 64.69/65.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD consolidates near 1.3970 as investors await April’s US CPI data. Market sentiment is buoyed by a major breakthrough in US-China trade talks and rising crude oil prices, offering support to the Canadian Dollar.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.39790

Entry Price

1.42000

1.38800

1.38167 +0.00020 +0.01%

99.0

Pips

Loss

1.38800

Exit Price

1.39790

Entry Price

1.42000

The USD/CAD currency pair remained relatively stable during Tuesday’s European session, hovering close to 1.3970 as global markets braced for a pivotal US inflation report. With the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April set to be released later in the North American session, traders are positioning cautiously. Expectations point to a monthly rebound in headline CPI to 0.3% from March’s surprise dip of -0.1%, while the core CPI is also projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.1%. Annualized inflation is forecast to remain unchanged, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may continue to walk a fine line between controlling inflation and preserving economic growth.

Despite a slight pullback in the US Dollar (USD) as traders took some profit off the table ahead of the inflation report, USD/CAD continues to cling to its gains, poised for a potential fifth consecutive daily advance. However, the pair is encountering some resistance amid broader macroeconomic shifts and renewed commodity strength, particularly in oil prices, which tend to bolster the Canadian Dollar (CAD).

One of the most significant developments buoying market sentiment is a surprise breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations. Over the weekend, both nations convened in Switzerland and reached a preliminary deal aimed at easing trade tensions that have long weighed on global growth prospects. Under the agreement, the United States will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from an elevated 145% to 30%, while China will slash tariffs on US imports from 125% to 10%. This mutual de-escalation marks a rare moment of diplomatic progress and has sparked optimism about a rebound in global trade flows, equity markets, and commodity demand.

Crude oil markets have responded enthusiastically to the trade news. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude extended its rally into a fourth consecutive session, trading just under $61.70 per barrel. The resurgence in oil prices is particularly supportive for the Canadian Dollar, given Canada’s role as the largest oil exporter to the United States. A sustained uptick in oil prices typically translates to improved trade balances for Canada and greater demand for CAD-denominated assets.

Yet, despite these supportive undercurrents for the CAD, the USD/CAD pair has shown resilience, largely underpinned by bullish sentiment toward the greenback and the persistence of a correctional uptrend on the short-term charts.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD appears to be consolidating within a bullish correctional pattern, with the price experiencing a modest decline intraday as it attempts to correct overbought conditions flagged by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI has begun to retreat from overextended levels, offering room for the pair to recalibrate and potentially resume its upward momentum. Despite this brief pause, the underlying trend remains positive, supported by continued trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a key technical support level that has consistently underpinned bullish positioning.

The emergence of slight bearish divergence on the RSI could suggest the need for a technical breather, but as long as USD/CAD sustains its posture above 1.3920, the bullish bias remains intact. A clear break above the recent high near 1.3975 could open the door toward 1.4200 and beyond, contingent upon the inflation data validating market expectations.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3910, followed by stronger demand near 1.3850. A downside breach of those levels would likely require a combination of disappointing CPI data and a stronger-than-expected rally in crude oil to fuel renewed CAD strength.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3980

STOP LOSS: 1.3880

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Forex

Summary:

This level coincides with a key horizontal support zone and sits near the 200-period moving average on the 12-hour chart, currently positioned at 0.8401.

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.84236

Entry Price

0.86200

0.83350

0.87415 +0.00099 +0.11%

31.1

Pips

Loss

0.83350

0.83925

Exit Price

0.84236

Entry Price

0.86200

Germany’s final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is set to be released on Wednesday, though no significant revisions are expected from the preliminary estimates. The more consequential data for euro traders this week will arrive on Thursday with the release of pan-European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Both quarter-on-quarter and year-over-year growth rates are anticipated to remain unchanged at 0.4% and 1.2%, respectively, in line with previous readings.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) appears increasingly committed to a continued easing cycle, likely delivering what would be its eighth rate cut in a twelve-month span and its seventh consecutive policy reduction. This reflects growing confidence among market participants that inflation in the eurozone is steadily trending toward the ECB’s 2% target by year-end. However, uncertainty persists, especially due to renewed trade tensions fueled by tariff measures from U.S. President Donald Trump—an external factor adding pressure on the ECB to act more aggressively in support of the region’s fragile economic momentum.

Recent comments from ECB officials further reinforced the dovish tone, with several policymakers openly supporting continued accommodation. They emphasized the risks of underestimating inflation softness and highlighted the need for a proactive rather than reactive stance. With structural challenges lingering and external shocks ongoing, there is now broader market consensus that additional stimulus could be deployed sooner than previously anticipated to ward off potential deflationary forces.

Across the Channel, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) external member Alan Taylor described a growing sense of “caution and concern” among businesses, noting that the tariff shock had proven more severe than expected. Surveys such as the REC and PMI have reflected a steady erosion in UK business sentiment over recent weeks.

In response to mounting global headwinds, the BoE resumed monetary easing at its most recent policy meeting, cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The decision, aimed at navigating what the bank called “heightened global unpredictability,” was reached by a narrow 5–4 vote. Notably, two members—Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor—pushed for a deeper 50 basis point cut, while two dissenters preferred to leave rates unchanged.

On inflation, the BoE projected a temporary spike to 3.5% in Q3, largely due to elevated energy prices, before expecting a gradual return toward target later in the year. However, its growth outlook deteriorated, with second-quarter GDP now seen expanding by just 0.1% and downside risks remaining pronounced. Oversold Conditions Point to Possible Bullish Rebound_1

Oversold Conditions Point to Possible Bullish Rebound_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP reached a local high of 0.8739 on April 11 but has since undergone a meaningful correction, falling to a local low of 0.8407 during the previous session. This level coincides with a key horizontal support zone and sits near the 200-period moving average on the 12-hour chart, currently positioned at 0.8401. This confluence of technical factors could set the stage for a potential rebound, particularly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has touched oversold territory at the 30 level.

In addition, a bullish divergence has formed: while price action has declined steadily, the RSI has dropped more sharply and recently interacted with a well-defined trendline. This suggests the retracement may be nearing exhaustion and a continuation of the broader bullish trend could soon follow.

Should upward momentum resume, initial resistance lies around 0.8619. However, if the pair breaks below current support and prints a lower low, the bullish setup could be invalidated, paving the way for further downside movement and a possible trend reversal.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8421

Target price: 0.8620

Stop loss: 0.8335

Validity: May 23, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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