The downside potential for the USD/CAD currency pair may be limited. Minutes from the Bank of Canada's meeting on Wednesday revealed that the Governing Council chose to disregard volatile annual inflation data ahead of the October 29th interest rate decision, instead focusing on underlying inflation indicators to better gauge the overall inflation trend. This approach is believed to provide a more reliable signal. At its last meeting, the central bank lowered its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, signaling that this might be the final rate cut for the near term, as monetary policy support for the economy is approaching its limit. Committee members acknowledged that the impact of the government's sales tax cuts and the removal of the consumer carbon tax last year would cause temporary fluctuations in year-over-year inflation changes, hence the focus on underlying indicators. In September 2024, the annual inflation rate rose to 2.4%, primarily due to a smaller year-over-year decline in gasoline prices. The central bank expects inflation to remain around 2% over the next two years, at the midpoint of its 1% to 3% target range. The current interest rate is already at the lower bound of the neutral range and has a stimulating effect on economic growth. The Governing Council unanimously agreed that monetary policy support has nearly reached its maximum limit. Governor Tiff Macklem stated that further measures would be taken if the economy shows significant weakness. Although there were differing views on the timing of the rate cut, the October reduction was well justified given factors such as excess supply, a weak labor market, sluggish economic growth in the second half of the year, and stable inflation expectations. Committee members also expressed concern that labor market weakness could persist or even widen, linked to U.S. tariff policies, trade uncertainties, and immigration restrictions that are slowing population growth and reducing the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment levels.

With the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market sentiment has improved, which may lead to further strengthening of the U.S. dollar, potentially boosting the USD/CAD pair. Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump signed a government funding bill on Thursday, officially ending the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The bill mandates the restoration of government operations and calls for direct payments for healthcare to individuals. Additionally, the U.S. dollar may find support from hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve officials, which have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut in December have dropped to nearly 60%, down from 67% the previous day. Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, spoke on economic trends at the Atlanta Economics Club on Wednesday. Bostic warned that easing monetary policy too early could feed the 'inflation beast'. He also noted that a sharp downturn in the labor market is unlikely in the near term.

Based on the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with the short-term EMA12 flattening. The price is oscillating near the Bollinger Middle Band, and the MACD uptrend momentum has weakened, with the MACD and the signal lines pulling back toward the zero axis again. There is a high probability that the price will stabilize near the EMA50, around 1.397. The RSI value is at 50, indicating a market in a wait-and-see state, awaiting a directional breakout. Regarding the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are also narrowing. The MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero axis, and the price has stabilized and rebounded near the EMA200. There is a high likelihood of further upward movement toward the Bollinger Middle or Upper Band, at 1.404 and 1.408, respectively. The RSI value is at 40, suggesting the market remains in a pessimistic sentiment. Therefore, buying at lows is recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.401

Target price: 1.44

Stop loss: 1.38

Support: 1.378/1.37/1.357

Resistance: 1.41/1.42/1.44

Canadian employment data provided a significant upside surprise on Friday, as Statistics Canada reported the Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.9% in October from the previous month’s 7.1%. This result comfortably beat market expectations, which were centered at 7.1%. Furthermore, the Canadian economy added 66,600 jobs in October, marking the second consecutive month of unexpectedly robust employment gains.

Turning to monetary policy, the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s survey of market participants indicates a broad expectation that the benchmark interest rate will remain steady at 2.25% until at least mid-2027. This consensus, however, is not universal among economists, with some anticipating another rate reduction as early as 2026, depending on the evolving landscape of international trade disputes.

In energy markets, attention shifts to key reports scheduled for release later in the day. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, commonly known as OPEC+, is set to publish its monthly market report, closely followed by the International Energy Agency's annual energy outlook. Both publications are expected to offer critical supply-and-demand forecasts extending into 2026, against a backdrop of persistent global concerns regarding oil oversupply.

The latest reports from the U.S. labor market depict a nuanced but generally decelerating trend. Last week's ADP Employment Change report showed that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 forecast and reversing September's 29,000 decline.

Conversely, a less optimistic picture emerged from the Challenger Job Cuts report, which disclosed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October—the highest monthly total recorded since 2003. Further data highlighted that the U.S. shed an average of 11,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a marginal improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded in the preceding four-week period.

The debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriate policy path continues to intensify. Fed Governor Stephen Miran has publicly stated his view that current monetary policy is excessively restrictive. In sharp contrast, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a decidedly hawkish stance, warning that a move to lower rates prematurely risks fueling the "beast of inflation." Bostic further articulated his belief that a "severe labor market recession" is not imminent. It is noteworthy that Bostic also announced his intention to retire from his post in February 2026.

Despite President Bostic's cautious remarks, market expectations for easing have gained slight momentum. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut to the 3.50%-3.75% range at the December meeting has risen to 68%, up from the 62.4% observed earlier on Monday.

The USDCAD pair has recently found crucial technical support. Specifically, price action has been supported by the 200-period Moving Average (MA), currently situated at 1.4002, and the 100-period MA at 1.4021. Furthermore, a key horizontal support/resistance level resides at 1.3985, a price point that has historically acted as a significant pivot for the pair. The confluence of these technical indicators suggests that this is a critical juncture where the price is highly likely to change direction. Should these combined support levels hold firm, it could signal the beginning of a renewed bullish impulse.

Adding to the bullish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 41, having recently bounced back from a low of 29.31, which briefly registered the pair in oversold territory. This technical bounce aligns with the price stabilizing within the key 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone. The alignment of the RSI reversal with this major Fibonacci retracement area significantly increases the probability that the recent downward movement was a simple correction, setting the stage for a strong continuation of the prior uptrend.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4010

Target price: 1.4140

Stop loss: 1.3950

Validity: Nov 21, 2025 15:00:00

Recent data from the U.S. labor market presents a mixed, but generally softening, picture. The ADP Employment Change report last week indicated that private payrolls increased by 42,000 in October, surpassing the 25,000 expectation and reversing September's 29,000 decline. However, a less encouraging trend emerged from the Challenger Job Cuts report, which revealed that U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, marking the highest monthly total since 2003. Further data showed that the U.S. lost an average of 11,250 private sector jobs in the four weeks ending October 25th, a slight improvement from the 14,250 loss recorded the prior month.

The debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding the appropriate policy stance continues to sharpen. Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintains that monetary policy is too restrictive. Conversely, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic adopted a hawkish position, cautioning that moving policy lower risks feeding the "beast of inflation." Bostic added that he does not foresee a "severe labor market recession." Notably, Bostic announced he will retire from his post in February 2026.

Despite Bostic's hawkish tone, market expectations for easing have increased slightly. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, has risen to 68% from 62.4% observed on Monday.

In Australia, inflation is running stronger than expected. The Australian economy saw inflation grow at a rate of 1.3% in the third quarter of the year, a significant acceleration from the 0.7% growth observed in the second quarter. This hot data strengthens the resolve of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep policy tight.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser reaffirmed the central bank's need to maintain stable interest rates until officials gain confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the target. Speaking at a UBS conference in Sydney, Hauser stated that achieving the inflation target "will require policy to be restrictive enough to close the output gap." He added that the economy continues to "run above its potential," which effectively limits the room for "near-term rate cuts." Looking ahead, investors will focus on the Australian employment data for October, due on Thursday, which is expected to show the economy added 20K new workers, up from 14.9K in September.

AUD/USD is currently undergoing a bearish rejection from the 200-period Moving Average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, which sits at 0.6538. The price reached a brief local high of 0.6550 before turning lower.

If the price manages to close decisively below this 200-period MA, it could signal the onset of a deeper downward correction. This level is highly significant as it coincides with the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement levels , a convergence that increases the probability that the most recent upward movement was merely a technical correction and that the primary bearish impulse is ready to resume from this zone.

The RSI is currently at 57, remaining out of overbought territory. However, it displays subtle bearish divergences when compared to previous higher price levels where the RSI reading was much lower than the current one. This technical alignment, coupled with the rejection from the 200-period MA, suggests that multiple technical factors are in place for a potential resumption of the downtrend.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6536

Target price: 0.6480

Stop loss: 0.6570

Validity: Nov 21, 2025 15:00:00

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced its largest wave of liquidations in recent weeks. According to data from liquidation tracking platforms, over US$397 million in long positions were forcibly closed, highlighting a significant cooling in market risk appetite.

The decline was primarily concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), with leveraged positions in these two major assets becoming the primary targets for capital outflows, leading to a significant drop in overall market liquidity.

The prominent crypto whale HyperUnit has fully liquidated its long positions in Ethereum, locking in approximately US$2.8 million in profits. This address gained notoriety for its precise shorting of ETH during the October 10th pullback, which yielded cumulative gains exceeding US$200 million. While this liquidation yielded relatively modest profits, it sends a crucial signal—whales are transitioning from offensive to defensive strategies.

Transaction data also indicates that funds have flowed into multiple centralized exchanges such as Kraken, Binance, and Hyperliquid, suggesting an intention to reduce leverage exposure and temporarily exit risk assets.

The departure of whales and liquidation events have rapidly cooled speculative sentiment in the ETH derivatives market. Arkham data indicates that open interest (OI) in ETH contracts has significantly declined following liquidations, while derivatives trading volume has also temporarily contracted. This signals that the market is undergoing a self-correcting deleveraging process. Such scenarios typically involve increased short-term price volatility, narrower trading ranges, and temporary liquidity declines.

From a technical perspective, after rising above US$3,800 in mid-October, ETH has repeatedly encountered resistance and retreated. It currently hovers near the critical support zone at US$3,500. Should this support fail to hold, the likelihood of further declines toward US$3,420 or even US$3,200 increases.

Conversely, if market liquidation concludes and capital re-enters the market, the short-term rebound target will focus on the range between US$3,650 and US$3,720. Further declines may test the July starting point of US$2,560.

The current market environment is characterized by high volatility and uncertainty. While the unwinding of large positions has alleviated short-term selling pressure, it also indicates that major capital is adopting a wait-and-see approach, with speculative funds exiting the market. In the near term, ETH's price trajectory may remain volatile with a bearish bias. Only after liquidations conclude and position structures are rebuilt is there potential for prices to stabilize and rebound.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3600

Target Price: 2609

Stop Loss: 4000

Valid Until: November 27, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3462, 3401, 3357

Resistance: 3598, 3659, 3916

Silver (XAG/USD) traded around $51.70 on Wednesday, up about 1% on the day, as the metal extended its winning streak on renewed optimism that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates again in December. Investors’ conviction that the U.S. central bank’s tightening cycle is nearing its end has strengthened markedly this week, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing nearly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction next month, compared with around 62% a day earlier. The market’s shift reflects growing concerns that the U.S. economy is losing momentum faster than expected, compelling policymakers to pivot toward supporting growth.

Recent economic indicators have reinforced this view. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to its lowest level since 2022, signaling that American households are turning more pessimistic about the outlook. Meanwhile, October data showed a slowdown in job creation and a dip in retail spending, both of which point to cooling economic activity. With inflation showing signs of easing, many investors believe the Fed’s next move will likely focus on stabilizing the economy rather than continuing to prioritize price control. This change in sentiment has proven favorable for silver, which tends to benefit when yields fall and the dollar weakens.

The resolution of the partial U.S. government shutdown has also helped improve market sentiment. Earlier this week, the U.S. Senate passed a funding bill, and the House of Representatives is expected to finalize it soon, paving the way for federal agencies to reopen. The move has offered temporary reassurance to investors who feared prolonged fiscal disruption, though analysts caution that the delay in data publication will make it more difficult for the Fed to accurately gauge near-term economic conditions. The reopening of government departments will eventually allow for the resumption of key economic reports, but for now, the absence of fresh data leaves traders relying heavily on Fed communications and market expectations.

The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, with the Dollar Index hovering around 99.60 as investors await a series of speeches from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials. Analysts at OCBC have suggested that the scarcity of new data will keep markets attentive to what Fed officials say, while economists at ING warned that once data releases resume, they could show deeper weakness in employment and output. Such a scenario would likely weigh further on the greenback. A softer dollar typically boosts demand for dollar-denominated commodities like silver, as it makes them more affordable for holders of other currencies. This dynamic has been a significant driver behind silver’s continued strength in recent sessions.

The technical picture for silver is equally supportive. The metal recently broke through a critical resistance level at $51.25, marking a clear bullish breakout from a consolidation range that had capped prices for weeks. The move was reinforced by the price holding above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), suggesting that momentum remains firmly on the side of the bulls. The metal has also been trading along a short-term ascending trendline, with momentum indicators showing positive readings even as the relative strength index (RSI) edges toward overbought territory.

Before the breakout, silver had been consolidating between $45.43 on the downside and $50.00 on the upside. The surge above $51.00 has transformed that area into a newly established support zone. The price action suggests that a retest of the breakout region could occur before the next upward leg, potentially offering buyers a new entry opportunity. If silver manages to hold above the $51.00 level, the next major resistance lies near $54.50, representing a possible 7% upside from current levels. The recent bullish momentum, confirmed by multiple rejections of lower levels in previous sessions, highlights the underlying strength of this move.

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 51.70

STOP LOSS: 50.00

TAKE PROFIT: 54.50

The British Pound extended its losing streak on Wednesday, underperforming most of its major peers except the Japanese Yen, as renewed speculation over a December interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) weighed heavily on sentiment.

Market participants are increasingly convinced that the BoE’s tightening cycle has come to an end and that policymakers could soon pivot toward monetary easing. According to Reuters, traders now expect around 20 basis points of rate cuts before the end of the year, a view strengthened by a dismal set of labour market figures released earlier this week.

The UK’s latest employment data for the three months ending September showed a net job loss of 22,000 workers — the first decline in employment since March 2024. The headline ILO Unemployment Rate rose to 5%, marking the highest level since early 2021 and underscoring the growing cracks in the nation’s labour market as higher borrowing costs continue to filter through the economy.

Adding to the dovish narrative, wage pressures — one of the BoE’s biggest concerns in its inflation fight — have started to cool noticeably. Average Earnings excluding bonuses slowed sharply to 4.6% year-on-year, the weakest growth rate in more than three years. The data suggests that the labour market, long considered resilient, is finally succumbing to the cumulative drag of elevated interest rates and weakening demand.

The slowdown in wage growth is also expected to feed into softer consumer inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for the BoE to loosen policy sooner rather than later. A cooling labour market, coupled with subdued consumption and stagnant business activity, gives policymakers a reason to start normalizing policy to support growth — a move that could weigh further on the Pound in the months ahead.

Despite the mounting pressure, not all policymakers share the market’s conviction that rate cuts are imminent. Megan Greene, a member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), signaled during a UBS conference in London on Tuesday that she favors maintaining the current rate stance. Greene argued that economic conditions could stabilize in the near term and that wage growth might rebound once confidence and hiring activity recover. Her comments, however, did little to shift sentiment as traders focused more on the hard data pointing toward a rapidly cooling economy.

The Pound’s underperformance reflects investors’ growing belief that the BoE will soon be forced to join the global wave of monetary easing seen in other major economies. As the U.S. Federal Reserve signals a potential soft landing and the European Central Bank faces similar calls for stimulus, the UK’s slowing growth trajectory could make the BoE one of the first major central banks to resume rate cuts.

From a broader perspective, the combination of elevated living costs, sluggish productivity, and waning business investment continues to erode the UK’s economic resilience. If unemployment continues to rise and wage growth remains weak, sterling could face additional downside pressure heading into year-end, particularly against the U.S. dollar and the euro.

On the technical front, the GBP/USD pair remains under significant bearish pressure following a failed attempt to break above a critical daily resistance zone. The recent rejection at that level has triggered renewed selling momentum, suggesting that the pair’s short-term bias has turned decisively negative.

Intraday price action reveals a clear bearish imbalance, often a precursor to further downside movement. The pair’s inability to sustain gains above the 1.3150 region highlights weakening buying interest and validates the view that bears remain firmly in control.

Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are trending lower and have yet to show signs of exhaustion, while the pair continues to trade below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages — classic signals of sustained bearish sentiment.

In the near term, i anticipate a potential decline toward the 1.3064 support level, which coincides with a key Fibonacci retracement area. A decisive break below that region could open the door to a deeper correction toward 1.3000 and potentially even 1.2900 in the coming sessions. On the upside, immediate resistance lies near 1.3175, followed by 1.3220, where renewed selling could emerge if risk sentiment deteriorates further.

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3120

STOP LOSS: 1.3220

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2900