The euro weakened against the dollar on Friday, slipping to around 1.1560 as risk sentiment soured and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy tone boosted the greenback. The move came after a largely directionless Asian and early European session, where the pair hovered just above key support near 1.1540. Despite a brief attempt to steady, the broader trend remains firmly tilted toward the downside as the market adjusts to diminishing prospects for further U.S. rate cuts this year.

Investors continue to digest Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, where the central bank delivered a quarter-point rate cut but paired it with a distinctly hawkish message. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that another rate reduction at the December meeting was “not a foregone conclusion,” effectively curbing expectations for additional easing. His remarks painted a picture of a central bank intent on staying data-dependent, even as economic visibility remains clouded by disruptions from the U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic releases. The tone reinforced the notion that the Fed is entering a cautious holding phase rather than embarking on a deeper easing cycle.

Markets reacted swiftly. Treasury yields ticked higher, and the dollar rallied as investors interpreted Powell’s stance as a sign of policy restraint rather than further accommodation. The Fed’s message, while signaling flexibility, also underscored its belief that the economy remains relatively resilient. This narrative has provided strong footing for the dollar and left little room for the euro to regain lost ground.

The greenback also found additional support from improving sentiment surrounding global trade. U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping reaffirmed a truce in their trade dispute, agreeing to maintain existing terms and suspend further escalation. While the agreement has been described as fragile and temporary, it was sufficient to boost confidence in U.S. assets. The development helped reinforce the dollar’s appeal, given the United States’ perceived economic resilience compared to Europe’s subdued outlook.

In contrast, Eurozone data continued to disappoint. Preliminary October figures for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed inflation slowing slightly to 2.1% year-on-year from 2.2% in September. Core inflation held steady at 2.4%, indicating little underlying price momentum. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.2%, marginally above the prior month’s 0.1%, while the core index advanced to 0.3%. These figures suggest inflationary pressures in the bloc remain contained, giving the European Central Bank limited room to maneuver.

The ECB, as expected, left interest rates unchanged at 2% during its latest meeting. President Christine Lagarde maintained a calm tone, stating that the central bank is “in a good place” and signaling confidence that current policy settings remain appropriate. Lagarde’s comments briefly lifted the euro, but the bounce proved short-lived as traders refocused on the widening yield gap between the Eurozone and the United States. Market participants largely interpreted her remarks as confirmation that the ECB is content to maintain its stance for now, rather than hinting at any tightening path ahead.

Technically, the euro remains on fragile footing. The 200-day simple moving average continues to act as a ceiling, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts to push higher. A recent break below the SMA 786 level confirmed renewed bearish momentum, slicing through dynamic support that had previously cushioned declines. The technical setup points to sustained downward bias, with momentum indicators favoring a continuation toward the 1.1400 handle in the short term. The failed attempts to reclaim resistance levels suggest that sellers remain firmly in control, and unless the pair stages a decisive recovery above 1.1620, rallies are likely to be sold into.

The current structure fits well with a disciplined short-side strategy that focuses on precision and patience rather than aggressive chasing. The rejection at the 200 SMA underscores the broader weakness in the euro, while the breakdown through support zones validates the dominance of bearish sentiment. For now, the path of least resistance remains lower, with traders likely to test deeper support levels should the U.S. data continue to outperform or if Eurozone indicators fail to show meaningful improvement.

SELL EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.15350

STOP LOSS: 1.1590

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1400

The euro is expected to weaken, with the strengthening dollar exerting additional downward pressure on the EURUSD. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rates at the October policy meeting, reaffirming its commitment to restoring inflation to the 2% target over the medium term. Policy decisions will continue to be data-dependent and assessed incrementally through successive meetings. Analysts suggest that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates in the near future. The deposit facility rate remains steady at 2%, with the main refinancing rate and marginal lending rate unchanged at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively, aligning with market expectations and reflecting confidence in the resilience of the Eurozone economy and easing inflationary pressures. Lagarde also stated at Thursday's press conference that the current monetary policy interest rate is at a "favorable levels." Although the so-called "favorable level" is not fixed, the ECB will do its utmost to maintain monetary policy within this range. With the trade agreement reached between Europe and the U.S. during the summer, the recent ceasefire in the Middle East, and today's latest developments, some downside risks to economic growth have been offset.

After the Federal Reserve's consecutive second rate cut of 25 basis points, justified by "risk management" considerations, Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks signaled no predetermined path toward easing and warned of significant disagreement within the FOMC regarding December policy actions. He emphasized that a rate cut in December remains "far from a fait accompli." Meanwhile, Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding upcoming economic data before the December meeting, noting that the lack of economic indicators could justify pausing interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve announced that it will pause its balance sheet reduction starting December 1st and will reinvest maturing principal into short-term Treasury securities. Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields flattened during the press conference, and futures markets showed a significant reduction in expectations for a December rate cut. The dollar initially appreciated then depreciated, reflecting the interplay between policy normalization and market pricing adjustments. Analysis indicates that the current U.S. Dollar Index and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory are approaching three critical inflection points.

Following the MACD death cross on the EURUSD 1D chart, with both the MACD line and signal line crossing below the zero-axis, the market signal indicates a bearish trend. The Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, while the SMAs are diverging downward, with price oscillating along the EMA12 support level. The RSI reading at 39 suggests increasing market pessimism. The current market has once again breached the 1.16 support level, likely approaching the EMA200 around 1.139. In the 1W timeframe, Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with prices oscillating near the middle band. Following a MACD death cross, the MACD line and signal line are pulling back toward the zero-axis, indicating ongoing correction yet to be complete. The RSI value is at 52, with peaks gradually declining, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. If the price fails to hold the middle Bollinger Band, a decline towards the EMA50 or even the lower Bollinger Band is highly probable. Therefore, it is recommended to go short at the highs in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.156

Target Price: 1.12

Stop Loss: 1.182

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.12

Resistance: 1.182, 1.192, 1.2

Amid expectations of a potential U.S.-China trade agreement and considering the Federal Reserve's possible shift towards a less dovish monetary policy stance, gold prices have recently experienced a significant correction as traders lock in profits. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, aligning with market consensus. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that if rate reductions hinder the Fed's access to crucial employment and inflation data, policymakers may adopt a more cautious approach. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 72.8%, down from 91.1% just a week prior. According to a report by Reuters, the latest findings from the World Gold Council indicate that "global gold demand in the third quarter increased by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 metric tons, reaching a historic high due to a surge in investment demand," which has also driven a rebound in gold prices. Currently, it remains to be seen whether gold can regain its upward momentum as the U.S. dollar appreciates against major currencies to a two-month high. Additionally, the ongoing contraction in China's manufacturing sector poses a negative impact on gold prices. China, being the world's largest gold consumer, saw its official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October fall from 49.8 in September to 49.0, the lowest in six months. This suggests that, amid signs of a government shutdown and no imminent reopening, the market is acting blindly due to a lack of data, while persistent concerns over the U.S. economy and fiscal policy may provide some cushion against further declines in gold.

The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 30th day, intensifying the political deadlock and escalating risks to economic stability and societal functions. Vice President Vance warned that a prolonged shutdown could significantly disrupt transportation and travel during the holiday season. Maryland has declared a state of emergency and allocated US$10 million to mitigate potential disruptions to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The shutdown erodes public confidence in government governance and heightens uncertainty regarding a soft landing for the economy, thereby reinforcing gold's role as a safe haven during political turmoil. Major global central banks maintain dovish monetary stances, further solidifying market expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy meetings both decided to hold interest rates steady, reflecting the overall global monetary policy stance remains accommodative. Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's slight reservations regarding Fed Chair Powell's hawkish rhetoric, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December remain high at around 70%. This dovish outlook continues to suppress real yields and the U.S. dollar, creating a favorable financial environment for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

In the 1H timeframe, the price is oscillating between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. The MACD is currently experiencing a second retracement above the zero-axis. If the MACD line and signal line form a golden cross above zero-axis again, a bullish trend is likely to develop. Resistance levels are observed near the EMA200 at approximately 4045 and the psychological round number at 4100. The RSI stands at 54, indicating a predominantly cautious market sentiment in the short term. In the 1D timeframe, the MACD has formed a death cross, with the MACD line and signal line still retracing towards the zero-axis, suggesting the correction is incomplete. The RSI is at 51, with investors remaining cautious. If the price can re-establish above the EMA12, a potential rally toward the resistance range around 4133 could occur. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3965

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 3750

Support: 3900, 3800, 3600

Resistance: 4380, 4500, 5000

Major geopolitical events are easing global tensions. Earlier on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded talks during the APEC summit in South Korea. The two leaders formalized a one-year trade truce, which involves the U.S. lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from roughly 57% to 47%. In exchange, China committed to resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans. Trump also stated that China agreed to ensure the "flow of rare earths, critical minerals, magnets, etc., openly and freely."

The U.S. central bank, meanwhile, delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps reduction in the federal funds rate, setting the new target range at 3.75%-4.00%. The decision was not unanimous, with Governor Stephen Miran arguing for a deeper 50 bps cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferring to hold rates steady.

In its Monetary Policy Statement, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, but job gains have slowed, and inflation remains elevated. Policymakers admitted that uncertainty surrounding the outlook is high, and downside risks to employment have increased. Notably, the Committee announced plans to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) by halting the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1st, effectively signaling a pause in balance sheet contraction. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the ongoing tension between fighting inflation and supporting employment, suggesting the policy rate is now within the range of many neutral estimates. He also highlighted a "growing chorus" within the Committee advocating for patience before making another move.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Tiff Macklem, issued a surprisingly hawkish assessment after the bank's recent rate cut. Macklem stated that the policy rate is now "roughly at the right level if inflation and activity evolve as projected," a comment that suggested a stronger outlook than implied by the easing. The BoC maintains its forecast for inflation to stabilize around 2%, although it revised its GDP projections for 2025 and 2026 slightly downward.

Macklem emphasized that the Canadian economy continues to grapple with significant headwinds, largely due to restrictive U.S. trade policy and sluggish global demand. He stressed the limits of monetary policy in stimulating demand while tariffs continue to damage key sectors like automotive and lumber. As a result, the BoC now forecasts that the GDP level will be approximately 1.5% lower by the end of 2026 compared to its earlier January projection. The bank also pointed to a weakening labor market, with the unemployment rate climbing to 7.1%.

USD/CAD recently executed a sharp bounce from the local low of 1.3887 (reached on October 29th). Following this brief touch, the price reacted strongly to the upside, quickly reclaiming the 200-period Moving Average (MA), which is located at 1.3940. This immediate reclamation of the 200-MA strongly suggests that bulls are interested in defending and controlling the price from this level.

The subsequent rally pushed the price to the 100-period MA at 1.4003, and the pair now appears to be entering a state of consolidation. If this consolidation phase leads to a pullback and the price approaches the 200-period MA once more, it would present a compelling long opportunity for traders to target the local resistance at 1.4034.

Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, remaining well out of oversold territory. However, the RSI is showing a slightly higher reading compared to previous, higher price levels, signaling a subtle divergence in the bullish momentum. This divergence indicates that a slight downward consolidation or pullback is likely before the next significant upward impulse can occur. Conversely, if the price breaks and closes decisively below the 200-period MA (1.3940), the current bullish setup would be invalidated.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3940

Target price: 1.4030

Stop loss: 1.3890

Validity: Nov 11, 2025 15:00:00

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, indicated that monetary policy is "in a good place" as economic risks subside and the Eurozone (EZ) economy shows signs of resilience. Lagarde specifically noted that de-escalating trade tensions between Europe and the U.S., a lessening of conflict in the Middle East, and the U.S.-China trade truce have all served to mitigate downside risks to growth projections.

The ECB revealed that inflation is near the 2% target and affirmed that it is not pre-committing to any particular rate path. The central bank commented: "The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment." The ECB also credited "The robust labor market, sound private sector balance sheets and the ECB's past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience." However, it acknowledged that "The outlook remains uncertain, due in particular to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions," and reiterated its determination to ensure inflation stabilizes at its 2% medium-term objective. The ECB is expected to release its updated economic projections through 2028 at the December meeting, and any internal policymaker expectations of persistent below-target inflation would warrant a discussion on further accommodation.

Major geopolitical and monetary developments are reshaping the global market landscape. Earlier on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded talks on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea. The two leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce, which includes the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from roughly 57% to 47% and China committing to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans. Trump also asserted that China has agreed to "continue the flow of rare earths, critical minerals, magnets, etc., openly and freely."

Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps reduction in the federal funds rate, setting the target range at 3.75%-4.00%. The decision was not unanimous, with Governor Stephen Miran favoring a deeper 50 bps cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferring to keep rates unchanged.

In its Monetary Policy Statement, the Federal Reserve noted that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace, though job gains have slowed and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Policymakers admitted that uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high and that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months. The Committee also announced plans to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) by halting the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1st, signaling a pause in balance sheet reduction. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of the tension between addressing inflation and supporting employment, stressing that both cannot be solved with a single policy tool. He added that the policy rate is now within the range of many neutral estimates and that any stabilization or strengthening in labor market data would influence future policy decisions. Powell also mentioned a "growing chorus" within the Committee suggesting it might be prudent to wait before making another rate move.

EUR/USD reached its local high of 1.1922 on September 17th. Since then, the price has entered a distinct downward correction. The pair recently delivered a decisive close below the 100-period Moving Average (MA), which is currently situated at 1.1593 on the daily chart. This breakdown below the 100-period MA serves as a technical confirmation that the bearish momentum could extend significantly.

The initial downside target for this extended movement is the next major support level at 1.1391, a zone that also converges with the 200-period MA (currently at 1.1161, implying the 200-MA will move higher towards this support).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 40, which is well above the oversold threshold. This neutral positioning suggests that the downward price action has considerable room to run before bearish exhaustion sets in. If the price breaks the immediate support level of 1.1543, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Conversely, a strong bullish break and close above 1.1655 would invalidate the current bearish potential and open the door for a continuation of the prior uptrend.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1600

Target price: 1.1391

Stop loss: 1.1710

Validity: Nov 12, 2025 15:00:00

Recently the market focus has been on the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting and the monetary policy outlook from the Fed. Geopolitical risk once drove a strengthening dollar and weighed on high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. After the U.S.–China meeting, no significant stimulus or economic/financial cooperation signals were released, global market sentiment became cautious, which deprived the crypto market of a catalyst for rebound.

In addition, according to CoinShares data, Ethereum-related fund products recorded around $25 million in net outflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of outflows, reflecting institutional investors’ cautious stance on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Ethereum network activity did not improve significantly — on-chain transaction volume and DeFi total value locked (TVL) both fell about 3% compared with September, indicating that the fundamentals currently lack the internal strength to drive prices higher.

On the policy front, the Fed is maintaining a tone of “keeping rates high for a longer period,” which continues to suppress valuations of risk assets. If October’s U.S. PCE data remains elevated, it may further weaken the rebound space for cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum’s price, after breaking above $4,000 in mid-October, was repeatedly capped near the $4,100–4,300 range, forming a temporary top. Currently the price has fallen back to around $3,879, and the short-term structure is in a downward trend channel.

The first support lies at $3,820; if it is broken, the next target will be around $3,720 (previous heavy trading zone).

On the upside, resistance is at $3,950 and $4,020; only a successful breakthrough above $4,000 might allow the short-term structure to reverse from bearish.

Ethereum’s price failed to benefit from a rebound in risk appetite after the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting, reflecting the market’s continued caution about macro and liquidity conditions. Short-term trend remains weak, investors should closely monitor inflation and employment data, as well as ETH main-net development progress and fund flow changes. In the absence of fundamental drivers, Ethereum’s price is very likely to remain in a range, with a defensive stance advised while waiting for a new directional signal.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3645

Target Price: 4380

Stop Loss: 3340

Valid Until: November 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3840 / 3710 / 3649

Resistance Levels: 4024 / 4115 / 4253