The Office for National Statistics in the UK reported on Tuesday that the unemployment rate experienced a slight increase over the three months ending in June, while the official unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7%, reaching its highest level in four years. The data corroborates the Bank of England's view that both the labor market and wage growth are weakening; however, following last week's quarter-percentage-point rate cut to 4%, it is unlikely that the Bank will cut interest rates further.

The U.S. Dollar Index retreated to around 98, primarily influenced by moderate US CPI data. The broad CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month and remained steady at 2.7% year-over-year, below expectations. Despite core CPI rising to its highest since February, market consensus suggests the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen again, approaching 95%, leading to a weakening of the dollar against the euro and yen. Geopolitical factors, such as the extension of U.S.-China tariff truce and easing tensions ahead of the Trump-Putin summit, have alleviated some pressure. Nonetheless, concerns over global economic slowdown continue to weigh on the dollar. Overall, since August 1, the dollar has shifted into a weaker trend, with further declines possible unless upcoming economic data strongly support a reversal.

In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD price is trending along the upper Bollinger Band, with the Bollinger bands expanding upward and SMAs diverging positively. The MACD has generated a bullish crossover above the zero axis, with the MACD line and signal line diverging from the zero axis, indicating no short-term bearish divergence. However, the RSI at 75 suggests overbought conditions, which could lead to a minor correction, but as long as the price remains above the middle Bollinger Band, the overall bullish trend remains intact. In the 1D timeframe, after finding support at the EMA200, the price has surged strongly, with two large bullish candles confirming the price's stabilization above the middle band and moving toward the upper band. Resistance levels are at previous highs and the upper Bollinger Band, specifically 1.358 and 1.363. If the price can break and hold above 1.363, it is likely to rise toward 1.38 or even 1.40. The daily MACD shows a bullish crossover near the zero line, and with the RSI at 59, not overbought, the upward momentum is expected to continue. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.35

Target Price: 1.36

Stop Loss: 1.345

Support: 1.345, 1.34, 1.337

Resistance: 1.36, 1.362, 1.378