Hold Above 4100! Is Gold Back on the Rise?

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

Members of the FOMC delivered important speeches, prompting traders to bet that the Fed will cut interest rates again in December. This move failed to help the U.S. dollar sustain last week's strong rally — the dollar rose to its highest level since late May — but instead provided a tailwind for non-yielding gold prices.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

4143.00

Entry Price

3600.00

4390.00

4209.73 +11.82 +0.28%

Pips

EXPIRED

3600.00

4129.74

Exit Price

4143.00

Entry Price

4390.00

Fundamentals

On Tuesday morning (November 25th, 2025), Russia launched a series of attacks on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, targeting residential buildings and energy infrastructure. The strikes came after weekend negotiations in Switzerland between U.S. and Ukrainian representatives on a U.S.-brokered plan aimed at ending the nearly four-year war. The White House said President Donald Trump remains hopeful and optimistic about reaching an agreement, but also warned that any progress carries uncertainty. According to a Ukrainian official, the U.S. peace proposal for Russia and Ukraine currently contains 19 points and does not impose strict limits on the size of the Ukrainian military. However, these changes are likely difficult for Russia to accept. Meanwhile, according to the Gaza Government Media Office, Israel violated the U.S.-brokered Gaza ceasefire agreement at least 497 times over 44 days. These developments keep geopolitical risks alive and serve as another factor supporting safe-haven precious metals prices.

Markets widely expect the Fed to cut rates at its December policy meeting, which is driving gold higher. Traders are awaiting the release later Tuesday of the U.S. ADP employment change report, retail sales data, and producer price index. Several Fed officials have signaled support for a December rate cut, lending further support to gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Monday that current data show the U.S. labor market remains weak enough to warrant another 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also stated that, given increasing fragility in the labor market, the Fed should lower rates. Bart Melek, Head of Commodity Strategy at TD Securities, remarked: "The market is increasingly getting convinced that the U.S. Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates in December." Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting the price of this non-yielding metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see nearly an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, up from a previous 30% probability. Traders are closely watching the latest U.S. economic data due out later Tuesday for more clues on monetary policy. The September Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, while retail sales are forecast to increase 0.4% MoM. If these figures beat expectations, they could boost the dollar and weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices.

Technical Analysis

Based on the 4-hour chart, gold's Bollinger Bands are opening upward, with price oscillating along the upper band in an uptrend. In the short term, gold remains within a large triangle consolidation pattern. A golden cross is formed, and both the MACD and signal lines move back above the zero line, indicating the reversal of the downtrend. RSI stands at 61, reflecting strong bullish sentiment, while resistance levels stay at $4155 and $4196. The daily chart, however, suggests a weakening MACD uptrend, while the price fails to make new highs — a sign of bearish divergence. This suggests a higher likelihood of near-term declines. Support lies at the Bollinger lower Band and the EMA50, at $3920 and $3974, respectively. RSI is at 58, placing the price in the optimistic zone, but successive highs are trending lower. Thus, selling at highs is recommended.

Hold Above 4100! Is Gold Back on the Rise?_1

Hold Above 4100! Is Gold Back on the Rise?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4143

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If this support zone is successfully defended, the price could renew its upward impulse to attempt a break toward a new local high.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.15000

Entry Price

1.16450

1.14600

1.16528 +0.00102 +0.09%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.14600

1.16447

Exit Price

1.15000

Entry Price

1.16450

The European Central Bank (ECB) and Deutsche Bundesbank President, Joachim Nagel, spoke at the Frankfurter Impulse event on Monday. While acknowledging that food inflation remains persistent, Nagel stated that the Euro's current level around $1.16 is not a cause for concern. Separately, German IFO business sentiment figures were largely in line with expectations, showing little change from the previous month. The primary market highlight for the Eurozone this week will be the preliminary German CPI inflation figures scheduled for release on Friday. Earlier data from the Eurozone's PMI reports revealed that manufacturing activity contracted against expectations, while the services sector showed signs of slowing down.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly supported a rate cut in December but admitted that a move in January is less certain. In an interview with Fox Business, Waller noted, "The bulk of the private sector and the anecdotal data we’ve received indicate that nothing has really changed. The labor market is weak; it continues to weaken."

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President and Fed Governor Mary Daly, speaking to the Wall Street Journal on Monday, maintained her belief that the Fed can successfully guide inflation back to its 2% target. Daly suggested that the risk of an inflationary flare-up is diminished, given that cost increases driven by tariffs have been more moderate than anticipated earlier this year. Adding to the increasingly dovish chorus, New York Fed President John Williams stated last Friday that the Fed could still cut rates in the "near term," significantly boosting the implied probability of action in December.

Last week's U.S. economic data provided mixed signals but suggested underlying resilience. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably beating expectations of a 50,000 rise. However, the August reading was revised sharply downward, showing a loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain of 22,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, hitting its highest level in four years. Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, falling slightly short of expectations. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being openly divided, the collective commentary from key Fed officials has increased the likelihood of the central bank reducing borrowing costs at the December 9-10 meeting. Oversold RSI and Key Support Point to Trend Reversal_1

Oversold RSI and Key Support Point to Trend Reversal_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been under consistent bearish pressure but has recently failed to establish a new lower low, finding crucial support at the 1.1504 level. If this support zone is successfully defended, the price could renew its upward impulse to attempt a break toward a new local high. Such a move would signal that bearish sentiment may be dissipating, opening the way for a possible trend change.

Adding weight to the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 28, clearly entering oversold territory. This level is highly likely to attract buying interest from investors looking to enter long positions. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 1.1553 and 1.1587, respectively. A convincing close above both these MAs would accelerate the upward momentum. The next significant resistance level stands at 1.1645. A rally toward this objective would likely involve the price breaking above the prevailing bearish trendline, potentially altering the long-term outlook for EUR/USD. However, if the price continues to fall and prints a new lower low below 1.1504, the current bullish setup would be invalidated, signaling that bears remain firmly in control.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1500

Target price: 1.1645

Stop loss: 1.1460

Validity: Dec 03, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This price point is highly significant, having previously triggered strong bullish impulses on two separate occasions.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64651

Entry Price

0.65630

0.64100

0.66381 -0.00002 0.00%

97.9

Pips

Profit

0.64100

0.65630

Exit Price

0.64651

Entry Price

0.65630

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller publicly supported a December rate cut but stated that a move in January is less certain. In an interview with Fox Business, Waller noted, "The bulk of the private sector and the anecdotal data we’ve received indicates that nothing has really changed. The labor market is weak; it continues to weaken."

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President and Fed Governor Mary Daly, speaking in a Wall Street Journal interview, maintained her belief that the Fed can successfully guide inflation back to its 2% target. Daly suggested that the risk of an inflationary flare-up is diminished, given that cost increases driven by tariffs have been more moderate than anticipated earlier this year. Adding to the dovish chorus, New York Fed President John Williams stated last Friday that the Fed could still cut rates in the "near term," significantly increasing the probability of action in December.

Last week's U.S. economic data provided mixed signals but suggested resilience. September's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 119,000, comfortably beating expectations of a 50,000 rise. However, the August NFP reading was revised significantly lower, showing a loss of 4,000 jobs instead of the previously reported gain of 22,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, modestly above the 4.3% estimate, hitting its highest level in four years.

Wage growth showed moderation, with Average Hourly Earnings rising 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, falling slightly short of the 0.3% expectation and softer than the previous 0.4% rise. On an annual basis, wages expanded by 3.8%, matching the prior reading and marginally beating the 3.7% forecast. Average Weekly Hours remained stable at 34.2, in line with expectations. Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) being openly divided, the collective commentary from key Fed officials has increased the implied probability of the central bank reducing borrowing costs at the December 9-10 meeting.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was one of Monday's worst-performing major currencies, primarily due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Japan and China, two of Australia’s main trading partners. China's Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, asserted that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi had "crossed a red line" by suggesting a Chinese action against Taiwan would trigger a military response from Japan.

The growing tensions in an already volatile region have largely offset the impact of positive Australian economic data seen last week. Preliminary PMI data revealed that Australian manufacturing activity rebounded to growth levels in November, following a contraction in October, and services activity accelerated for the second consecutive month. These domestic indicators reaffirmed the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) cautious, data-driven posture. Key Support Set to Spark Renewed Bullish Impulse_1

Key Support Set to Spark Renewed Bullish Impulse_1

Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair has approached a critical level, signaling a potential change in direction as it nears the 0.6418 support mark. This price point is highly significant, having previously triggered strong bullish impulses on two separate occasions. If this historical pattern repeats, we could anticipate a renewed upward move from this zone, targeting the next major resistance at 0.6563. This level is particularly attractive as it perfectly aligns with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, adding technical confluence that suggests this will be the objective of the new bullish impulse.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 33.15, rapidly approaching oversold territory. This reading is likely to draw the attention of potential buyers to this zone. Furthermore, the 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely aligned near the bullish target at 0.6540 and 0.6533, respectively. Should the price decisively break below the 0.6418 support level, it would negate the current bullish setup and open the door for a more prominent decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6466

Target price: 0.6563

Stop loss: 0.6410

Validity: Dec 05, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Stocks

Summary:

Friday's rally reflected traders' pricing-in of NY Fed president Williams' hint at a December rate cut. The recent equity pullback is a healthy consolidation. Use it to initiate longs and watch early-December price action for either a resumption of the up-trend or a structural break.

BUY US30

EXP

PENDING

45700.00

Entry Price

49579.00

44900.00

47993.92 -5.98 -0.01%

Pips

PENDING

44900.00

Exit Price

45700.00

Entry Price

49579.00

Fundamentals

Following Thursday's sharp sell-off, the major equity indices staged a powerful relief rally on Friday.

All of the bellwether averages, however, retreated sharply from their intraday highs into the close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) advanced 493 points, or 1.1%, to 46,245. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 195 points, or 0.9%, to 22,273. The S&P 500 Index rose 64 points, or 1.0%, to 6,602.

Despite the session's rebound, the headline indices posted steep weekly losses: the Nasdaq tumbled 2.7%, the S&P 500 shed 2.0%, and the Dow slipped 1.9%, leaving the weekly technical picture still fragile.

Wall Street's robust showing appeared partly driven by renewed dovish repricing around the Fed's December FOMC meeting, with investors growing more confident that the FOMC will deliver another rate cut. Expectations for a reduction next month were further buoyed after New York Fed President John Williams struck a distinctly dovish tone in his latest remarks.

At the centennial conference of the Central Bank of Chile, Williams stated that monetary policy is "modestly restrictive" and that he sees "room for further adjustments" in the policy rate in the near term.

It is worth noting, however, that the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting reveal "significant divergence" among officials on whether to proceed with another rate cut in December.

Market watch: the recent U.S. equity sell-off has been driven predominantly by macro factors rather than panic selling triggered by an AI-bubble burst. The pullback was chiefly triggered by the September non-farm payrolls surprise coupled with hawkish Fed rhetoric, prompting profit-taking. With the U.S. labor market showing marginal weakness, the December FOMC meeting could mark the peak of the current "hawkish scare." Thereafter, the market narrative is likely to shift to the political calculus surrounding President-elect Trump's nomination of the next Fed Chair. Fundamentals in the AI segment remain intact. Given exponential token growth, persistent supply-chain bottlenecks, and robust free cash flow and balance-sheet strength among the "Big Four" tech giants, the extreme "AI-bubble burst" scenario is unlikely to materialize in the near term.

Williams Hints Dec Rate Cut; Stocks Rally but Weekly Under Pressure_1

Technical Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has touched its MA100 and is within striking distance of the orange trendline. A minor bounce is underway, but no technical evidence yet confirms that the downtrend is over. Support at the MA20 (45,949) remains intact and continues to act as a backstop.

Price action needs to be monitored closely. If the index extends lower and registers a fresh swing low, the uptrend will be at risk. The baseline scenario expects sideways consolidation around current levels, followed by a rebound that preserves the longer-term bullish structure.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 45700

Target Price: 49579

Stop Loss: 44900

Valid Until: December 10, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 45949/45146/44528

Resistance Levels: 46876/47123/48104

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Summary:

The EUR/CAD pair strengthened toward ~1.6240–1.6250 as the European Central Bank (ECB) reaffirmed a cautious policy stance and the Canadian dollar (CAD) came under pressure due to softer oil prices

BUY EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.62603

Entry Price

1.63250

1.61800

1.61037 +0.00174 +0.11%

64.7

Pips

Profit

1.61800

1.63252

Exit Price

1.62603

Entry Price

1.63250

Overview

EUR/CAD climbed as oil prices (which strongly influence CAD via Canada’s energy export exposure) traded near the low‑$60s, reducing CAD strength. Meanwhile, the ECB signalled that current policy remains appropriate unless inflation deviates from target, which supports the euro’s relative positioning. According to ECB reference data, EUR/CAD printed 1.6226 on 21 Nov, up from earlier levels.

Technical measures from Investing show the pair is in a strong‑buy zone, with moving averages aligning positively. In this context the setup is favourable for a buy on EUR/CAD, provided oil doesn’t sharply rebound (which would favour CAD) or the ECB unexpectedly becomes more dovish.

Market sentiment

Sentiment is tilted toward the euro vs CAD. The euro benefits from a steady policy outlook and the impression of being the “safe alternative” among commodity‑linked currencies, while the CAD is weighed by weaker oil and lack of fresh supportive domestic data. Analysts note a bullish skew for EUR/CAD, with technical studies signaling strong buy across multiple timeframes. One caveat: some commentary warns of a slowing euro‑trend against the backdrop of broader USD strength and political risks.

Technical analysis

EUR/CAD edges higher above 1.6240 as ECB holds and oil weighs on CAD_1

On the M15 chart, price is riding above the Bollinger mid‑line and reacting positively on dips toward the 20‑period mean. That structure suggests favorable conditions for buying on retracements. The Ichimoku cloud (Kumo) is below or near current price, offering dynamic support in the ~1.6215–1.6230 region. A clean %K cross above %D in the Stochastic from the 40–50 band on a dip would confirm momentum readiness.Given this alignment, the entry zone is defined near the recent support cluster, the target is aligned with recent highs/resistance, and stop‑loss is placed beneath the cloud support.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 1.6260

TP: 1.6325

SL: 1.6180

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Commodity

Summary:

XAU/USD is holding steady around $4,100 as the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuates around 99.5 and equity volatility remains contained...

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4090.04

Entry Price

4140.00

4060.00

4209.73 +11.82 +0.28%

499.6

Pips

Profit

4060.00

4140.08

Exit Price

4090.04

Entry Price

4140.00

Overview

Gold is stabilizing after a period of consolidation, with recent trading volumes and real-time feeds showing XAU/USD holding the $4,080–$4,120 range. The U.S. Dollar Index is testing the 99.5–99.7 range, with little directional conviction after the Fed’s October 29 cut to 3.75–4.00%. The easing of the Fed's monetary policy is still being digested, and while gold has been trading steadily within the range, there are no new shocks coming from the macro environment. Risk sentiment is neutral, and with VIX in the high-teens, gold is maintaining its strength, supported by stable demand for safe-haven assets. The current technical picture suggests buying dips is favorable, especially with the dollar still hovering beneath the 100 threshold.

Market sentiment

Positioning is balanced, with market participants cautiously eyeing any shifts in U.S. data or Fed guidance while tracking the DXY’s movements. The broader market is not showing signs of panic, and with volatility relatively low, gold tends to be favored on any dips, as long as DXY fails to gain momentum above 100. The market sentiment around gold remains supported by geopolitical risks and the ongoing structural challenges in the global economy, though the absence of new catalysts keeps price action in a range-bound mode. The dollar’s current hold under 100 gives the edge to gold bulls in the short term.

Technical analysis

Gold steadies near $4,100 as DXY dips and risk sentiment holds steady_1

Price is oscillating around the Bollinger mid-line after recent dips to the lower band near $4,080, with the 20-period mean providing support. This pattern is typically seen in continuation phases, and as long as price holds above this level, the next target for upside is the upper Bollinger band at $4,140. On Ichimoku, gold is rotating above the cloud, with Tenkan above Kijun on rebounds, indicating bullish sentiment. The cloud top around $4,090–$4,100 continues to act as a dynamic support zone. Stochastic (5/3/3) is turning up from mid-range, signaling that momentum is building, and a %K cross above %D from the 40–50 zone on a minor pullback should signal further upside movement. With the technical indicators aligning with a buy-the-dip bias, the path of least resistance remains upward. Recent references from real-time dashboards show XAU/USD hovering near $4,100, consistent with the current market tone.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 4,090

TP: 4,140

SL: 4,060

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian Dollar slumped on Monday, pressured by renewed geopolitical tensions in Asia and a stronger U.S. Dollar backdrop, with markets weighing hawkish RBA signals against rising global uncertainty.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64500

Entry Price

0.63500

0.65000

0.66381 -0.00002 0.00%

50.0

Pips

Loss

0.63500

0.65002

Exit Price

0.64500

Entry Price

0.65000

The Australian Dollar struggled to capitalize on the generally upbeat market sentiment on Monday, with the currency slipping back toward multi-month lows as geopolitical risks overshadowed last week’s encouraging domestic economic indicators. The AUD/USD pair retreated to session lows near 0.6440 during European morning trading, reversing the modest gains logged in Asia after touching highs around 0.6465. The weakness leaves the currency uncomfortably close to the three-month trough at 0.6429 set on Friday, underscoring how fragile sentiment remains around the Aussie.

The currency’s underperformance was particularly notable given that broader risk appetite was improving across global markets. Instead of benefiting from the softer U.S. Dollar tone or buoyant equity markets, the Australian Dollar found itself among the weakest performers of the day. Traders pointed to escalating diplomatic friction between Japan and China—Australia’s two largest trading partners—as the primary catalyst for the downward pressure. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned earlier on Monday that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had “crossed a red line” after suggesting Japan would respond militarily if Beijing moved against Taiwan. The sharp exchange injected fresh uncertainty into an already tense regional environment, prompting markets to tilt away from risk-sensitive currencies such as the AUD.

The flare-up comes at a delicate time for Australia, where recent economic data had been painting a cautiously optimistic picture. Last week’s preliminary PMI readings showed that manufacturing activity rebounded into expansion territory in November after contracting in October, while the services sector accelerated for a second straight month. The improving momentum reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a hawkish bias in its upcoming policy meetings, especially with inflation still running above target. Under normal circumstances, such data would provide at least some durability to the Australian Dollar, but the geopolitical overhang has effectively neutralized the domestic tailwinds.

Meanwhile in the United States, the Dollar’s dynamics remain complicated. The stronger-than-expected S&P Global PMI readings and an improvement in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index initially bolstered the greenback late last week. However, those gains were short-lived. Dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams—who also serves as vice chair of the FOMC—weighed on the Dollar as markets recalibrated their rate-cut expectations. Williams suggested that the Federal Reserve has “ample room” to lower interest rates without jeopardizing progress on inflation, a comment that triggered a notable shift in rate-pricing. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in December surged to 75% from roughly 45% earlier in the week, sending the Dollar broadly lower against its major peers.

Technical Analysis

Despite this softer USD backdrop, the Australian Dollar has been unable to meaningfully recover. From a technical perspective, the pair continues to respect the long-term descending trendline that has guided price action for several months. After failing to break above that resistance last week, AUD/USD formed a fresh lower high—an important structural signal that the broader downtrend remains intact. The latest rejection from the trendline, coupled with the completion of a bearish pullback, indicates that sellers still control momentum. A clear imbalance remains open beneath current prices, suggesting that the path of least resistance may continue to point downward unless a catalyst emerges to shift sentiment.