Gold Edges Lower After CPI Data Dims Rate Cut Expectations

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold prices remain subdued below $3,330 as sticky U.S. inflation data and political tensions surrounding Fed Chair Jerome Powell weigh on sentiment.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3325.00

Entry Price

3264.00

3370.00

4214.79 +16.88 +0.40%

450.0

Pips

Loss

3264.00

3370.06

Exit Price

3325.00

Entry Price

3370.00

Gold (XAU/USD) traded in a tight range on Tuesday, slipping slightly as investor sentiment cooled in the wake of the latest U.S. inflation report. The data confirmed that while price pressures are gradually easing, the Federal Reserve still faces a stubborn inflation backdrop that complicates the case for near-term monetary easing. Combined with growing political friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve, gold markets are now navigating not just macroeconomic uncertainty, but rising institutional risk as well.

At the time of writing, the yellow metal is trading just below the $3,330 mark, a modest retreat from earlier highs. Despite geopolitical tensions and lingering recessionary concerns, gold remains constrained by the Fed’s continued reluctance to pivot toward rate cuts — a stance reinforced by Tuesday’s economic releases and subsequent market repricing.

June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print showed headline inflation rising by 2.7% year-on-year — precisely in line with consensus expectations. However, the real market-moving detail lay in the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components. It rose 2.9%, slightly below the 3% forecast but still significantly above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

While this slight deceleration initially sparked some optimism among dovish investors, that sentiment quickly faded. Market participants have grown wary of overinterpreting minor disinflationary progress. The latest Fed funds futures data now reflects a 54.4% probability of a rate cut in September — down from 63% earlier this month — while 44% of the market is betting on the Fed holding rates steady into year-end.

This repricing is mirrored in financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields firmed across the curve following the CPI release, with the 10-year yield pushing toward 4.35%, as investors adjusted their rate expectations. Simultaneously, the U.S. Dollar regained ground, further pressuring non-yielding assets like gold. The dollar’s strength acts as a double-edged sword for the yellow metal: it reduces gold's appeal for foreign buyers and tightens global financial conditions, limiting the scope for safe-haven flows.

In a development that adds an additional layer of complexity, former President Donald Trump — currently leading in several national polls ahead of the November election — has reignited debate about the future of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking to Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Robert Bessent sought to downplay fears that Trump intends to dismiss Powell if reelected, stating, “As President Trump said, he’s not looking to fire Chair Powell.”

However, Bessent also added that the tradition of Fed chairs resigning from the Board of Governors after their term could come into question, particularly if Powell’s continued presence undermines confidence in his successor. “There’s been a lot of talk of a shadow Fed chair… it would be very confusing for the market for a former Fed chair to stay on also,” he warned.

These remarks have sparked concern in financial circles that Powell could become a political lightning rod in the months ahead, potentially undermining the Fed’s credibility and independence. If investors begin to view the Fed as compromised, gold could benefit from renewed safe-haven flows — but not until clarity emerges on the Fed's future policy direction and leadership stability.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold has struggled to build on its recent bullish momentum. Price action on the daily chart reveals a clear rejection from the $3,360–$3,371 resistance zone — an area that also aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April rally.

Following the rejection, prices broke below a rising trendline support and are now hovering just above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $3,292.57. A double-top pattern formed in the $3,360 region further confirms bearish momentum, especially with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing signs of fading strength. Both the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages have converged around $3,335–$3,324, which may act as temporary resistance on any rebound.

If the current trajectory holds, initial downside targets lie at $3,307.66, followed by secondary support near $3,264.12. The confluence of technical weakness and a hawkish macro backdrop suggests gold could struggle to break higher without a material dovish shift in U.S. monetary policy or a significant geopolitical jolt.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3325

STOP LOSS: 3370

TAKE PROFIT: 3264

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Euro extended its rally against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, pushing toward the 173.00 mark for the first time since July 2024.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

172.800

Entry Price

175.450

171.500

181.067 +0.194 +0.11%

17.2

Pips

Profit

171.500

172.972

Exit Price

172.800

Entry Price

175.450

The Euro is on a roll against the Japanese Yen, advancing for a third consecutive session on Tuesday and closing in on the psychologically and technically significant 173.00 level. This move places EUR/JPY at its strongest levels in nearly a year, and investors appear increasingly confident in a sustained bullish trend, underpinned by a widening monetary policy gap and rising domestic political instability in Japan.

At the time of writing, EUR/JPY trades around 172.85 during the American session, just shy of the July 12, 2024 high. The rally comes as a resurgent Euro rides the tailwinds of upbeat industrial data, while the Yen remains weighed down by Japan’s cautious central bank, geopolitical uncertainty, and domestic inflation pressures.

The Japanese Yen continues to be a victim of its own policy isolation. While most major central banks have either paused or begun cutting interest rates following aggressive hiking cycles, the Bank of Japan remains stuck in first gear. Despite inflation running consistently above its 2% target — fueled by higher import costs and global commodity pressures — the BoJ has refrained from making significant tightening moves.

Officials have repeatedly cited weak domestic demand, an uneven wage recovery, and heightened global risk as reasons to hold back. With nominal interest rates still hovering around zero, the carry trade remains attractive, encouraging capital to flow out of Japan and into higher-yielding assets — such as European or U.S. bonds — thereby amplifying downward pressure on the Yen.

Adding fuel to the fire, Japan is entering a politically sensitive phase. With Upper House elections set for July 20, polls suggest the ruling coalition could lose its majority, raising questions over future fiscal policy and governance stability. Investors fear increased fiscal spending post-election, potentially widening the country’s already concerning debt load — and leaving the central bank in an even tighter corner. This cocktail of weak monetary response and political risk is discouraging Yen buying, allowing the Euro to continue climbing.

While the Yen is contending with local headwinds, the Euro has found renewed support from improving macroeconomic fundamentals. Data released Tuesday showed a healthy bounce in Eurozone industrial output. According to Eurostat, industrial production rose by 1.7% in May from the prior month, rebounding sharply from April’s 2.2% decline and exceeding expectations of a 0.9% gain. On a year-over-year basis, production jumped 3.7% — its fastest pace since early 2023 — signaling a potential inflection point in the region’s sluggish manufacturing sector.

Complementing the data, investor sentiment across the bloc held steady. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index ticked up to 36.1 in July from 35.3 in June. Though this missed market consensus of 37.8, the modest increase suggests that optimism is stabilizing as energy prices normalize and inflation gradually retreats.

While the European Central Bank is still expected to ease rates further this year, any further monetary loosening is likely to be modest and conditional on incoming data. For now, the Euro remains resilient, particularly in crosses like EUR/JPY, where divergent fundamentals are stark.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY continues to respect a bullish channel structure. The pair remains firmly supported above 170.45 — a key horizontal support and prior breakout level — and is now challenging the upper boundary of the channel near 172.40.

Momentum indicators, particularly the stochastic oscillator, are showing bullish signals, suggesting that upward pressure remains intact. A decisive breakout above 172.40 would likely open the door for a retest of the 172.85 intraday resistance and eventually a push toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at 175.45 — a potential magnet for short-term bulls.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 172.80

STOP LOSS: 171.50

TAKE PROFIT: 175.45

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin has pulled back sharply after breaking out to new all-time highs last Thursday, raising concerns in the market. Is this decline a precursor to a trend reversal? Or is it a “healthy consolidation” in a bullish market? In this article, we will analyze the on-chain data and market dynamics behind the price adjustment, and combine it with technical graphics to provide market judgment and trading recommendations.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

112500.0

Entry Price

135842.0

106000.0

91418.9 +1864.1 +2.08%

Pips

EXPIRED

106000.0

117910.1

Exit Price

112500.0

Entry Price

135842.0

Fundamentals

Following a successful breach of the all-time high of US$112,030 last Thursday, Bitcoin's price surged to US$123,256 before experiencing a notable correction.

Market consensus attributes this pullback to a natural consolidation phase within the prevailing upward cycle, reflecting investors' portfolio rebalancing following the substantial gains, rather than a reversal signal. Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals remain robust, with strong support from buying activity at lower price levels.

What were the immediate catalysts for this downturn? On-chain data reveals that miners have been offloading their Bitcoin holdings at the highest rate in months. Simultaneously, dormant wallet addresses have transferred thousands of BTC to exchanges, signaling significant selling pressure. Two substantial transactions, totaling nearly 17,000 BTC, served as the primary trigger for the price decline. Within a 24-hour period, over US$500 million in positions were liquidated, impacting over 130,000 traders, with almost US$400 million in liquidations occurring within just four hours.

Despite this, some analysts suggest that this drop may be "strategic," potentially aimed at filling a price gap of approximately US$115,000 on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). A more robust rebound is anticipated once the market consolidates.

Logic and Opportunities Behind the Plunge_1

Technical Analysis

The current Bitcoin price has declined by over 5% from its peak, seeking support within the US$116,591 - US$116,895 range. In the short term, a potential stabilization and subsequent rebound may occur if selling pressure subsides.

Technical indicators reveal that the StochRSI has entered the oversold territory, suggesting an impending rebound. However, a breach of the support level could lead to a further retracement towards the previous starting point, approximately US$112,000 range.

Overall, this downturn remains within the existing structure, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 113000, 112500

Target Price: 135842

Stop Loss: 106000

Valid Until: July 30, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 115240, 113435, 112090

Resistance: 118851, 120515, 123256

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen for a third straight session on Tuesday, with USD/JPY climbing back toward the 148.00 level—its highest in nearly two months.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

148.199

Entry Price

151.000

146.600

155.226 -0.119 -0.08%

44.7

Pips

Profit

146.600

148.646

Exit Price

148.199

Entry Price

151.000

The USD/JPY pair extended its winning streak on Tuesday, pushing higher for a third consecutive session amid a backdrop of resurgent trade tensions and strong technical tailwinds. During European trading hours, the currency pair touched levels near 148.00, marking a new two-month high and reigniting bullish interest in the dollar-yen cross.

This latest rally comes on the heels of renewed strain in U.S.–Japan trade relations. Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a fresh 25% tariff on a broad range of Japanese imports. The move, which came after Washington and Tokyo failed to finalize a trade agreement during the 90-day grace period, sent ripples through financial markets and reignited fears of a prolonged trade dispute. The tariffs are not sector-specific, marking a broad-based escalation that appears to be more politically charged than strategically targeted. Despite the setback, Tokyo has reiterated its intent to continue negotiations with Washington before the new deadline of August 1, hoping to de-escalate the dispute.

Adding another layer to the geopolitical narrative, Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported earlier in the day that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is scheduled to meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday. The meeting is set to take place during Ishiba’s visit to the United States, where he will also attend the U.S. national day at the World Expo 2025. This diplomatic engagement may serve as a critical juncture for re-establishing common ground between the two economic powers. But until then, the uncertainty is fueling yen weakness and dollar strength.

The Japanese yen’s status as a safe-haven currency appears to be overshadowed by structural headwinds, including a persistently dovish Bank of Japan. The central bank’s reluctance to tighten monetary policy—even in the face of global normalization—has kept Japan’s yield profile notably low, making the yen an ideal funding currency in carry trades. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has maintained a firm stance on inflation, with markets still pricing in the potential for interest rates to remain higher for longer. This policy divergence continues to widen the gap between U.S. and Japanese bond yields, adding further pressure on the yen.

Technical Analysis

The bullish tone in USD/JPY is also supported by strong technical structure. The pair has broken through a long-standing resistance trendline, signaling a meaningful shift in sentiment. This breakout suggests the previous consolidation phase has ended, giving way to renewed upward momentum. Price action has sustained itself above former highs, and the structure shows a series of higher lows forming along an inner ascending trendline, a signal of persistent buying interest on dips. Additionally, the pair continues to trade well above the 200-day exponential moving average, now located around 145.14, reinforcing the broader bullish trend.

Momentum indicators lend further credibility to the rally. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads near 63, indicating strong upward momentum without flashing overbought conditions. This suggests that there may still be ample room for further gains before technical exhaustion sets in.

From a price projection standpoint, traders are now focusing on two key levels. The first is around 149.70, a level derived from the measured move following the recent breakout. This area also coincides with short-term resistance from early April. A more ambitious upside target lies at 151.00, which reflects an extended move based on previous bullish patterns and a historically significant resistance area from 2022.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 148.20

STOP LOSS: 146.60

TAKE PROFIT: 151.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If the pattern repeats, we could see the price attempt to move back toward the next resistance level at 0.6589.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65398

Entry Price

0.65900

0.65250

0.66447 +0.00064 +0.10%

26.9

Pips

Profit

0.65250

0.65667

Exit Price

0.65398

Entry Price

0.65900

The Australian labor market data for June, due to be released this Thursday, is expected to take center stage for investors. Employment figures will be particularly important, as they could significantly impact market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook.

Last week, in a surprising move, the RBA kept its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 3.85%, despite market consensus anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut. The decision has fueled speculation about the RBA’s next steps and whether further rate cuts are likely in the near term.

On Tuesday, China’s second-quarter GDP data, along with retail sales figures, will be in the spotlight. The Chinese economy is expected to have slowed slightly in Q2, with growth forecast to ease to 5.2% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in Q1, largely due to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. On a quarterly basis, growth is expected to have moderated to 1.0% from 1.2% in the previous quarter. Should the GDP figures surprise to the upside, it could provide some short-term relief to the Australian dollar (AUD), which often acts as a proxy for Chinese economic activity given the close trading relationship between the two nations.

Meanwhile, President Trump made headlines over the weekend by threatening to impose 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico unless a trade agreement is finalized before the August 1 deadline. These new tariffs would add to the existing 20% and 25% levies announced earlier in April, further escalating the trade conflict. This heightened trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the broader market sentiment, with many investors fearing the inflationary impact of these measures.

The financial markets are also awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI projected to increase from 2.8% to 3.0%. If these expectations are met, it could reinforce concerns about persistently high inflation and validate the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to monetary policy.

Fed officials have also begun to signal their thoughts ahead of the next meeting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated her hawkish stance, highlighting that inflation remains too high despite the recent moderation. She emphasized the possibility of further tightening if needed to control rising prices. A Strong Bounce From Local Support Could Reignite the Bullish Momentum in AUDUSD_1

A Strong Bounce From Local Support Could Reignite the Bullish Momentum in AUDUSD_1

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has recently dropped to the 0.6544 level, where a significant local support zone lies. This area has served as a reliable reversal point in the past, leading to bullish bounces from these levels. If the pattern repeats, we could see the price attempt to move back toward the next resistance level at 0.6589.

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 35, approaching oversold conditions. This suggests that the currency pair may be primed for a potential bullish reversal if the support zone holds. If the price starts to show signs of recovery from here, it would be consistent with the previous price action.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 0.6556 and 0.6549, respectively, very close to each other. The price has recently closed below these levels, which could trigger a deeper downward move if the support breaks. However, a sustained hold above these moving averages and a close above the current support zone would confirm that the bullish momentum could continue, potentially driving the price higher.

The focus will be on whether AUDUSD can maintain its support near 0.6544. If the price successfully holds above this level and closes above the moving averages, the chances of a bullish reversal will increase, making the 0.6589 resistance level the next key target.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.6540

Target price: 0.6590

Stop loss: 0.6525

Validity: Jul 25, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A pullback toward the 145.80 zone remains plausible if the price begins to retreat from local top levels.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

148.000

Entry Price

145.850

149.500

155.226 -0.119 -0.08%

62.9

Pips

Profit

145.850

147.371

Exit Price

148.000

Entry Price

149.500

President Donald Trump jolted financial markets over the weekend by threatening to impose 30% tariffs on imports from both the European Union and Mexico if a trade agreement is not reached by the August 1 deadline. These proposed levies would come on top of previous tariffs announced on April 2—20% and 25% respectively—and follow earlier moves that targeted Canada with a 35% rate and slapped a 50% duty on key commodities like copper, aluminum, and steel.

While many investors still view Trump’s threats as mere bargaining tools, the unpredictability of his approach continues to inject uncertainty into the markets. Increasing concerns about the inflationary and growth-slowing consequences of these trade measures are beginning to weigh on the U.S. dollar’s recent recovery momentum.

Adding to the pressure, the White House confirmed an additional 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports is scheduled to take effect alongside the other measures on August 1.

Traders are now bracing for the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June. Headline inflation is forecast to climb from 2.4% to 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3.0%—well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. If realized, these figures could validate the Fed’s current cautious monetary stance and reinforce concerns that inflation may prove to be more persistent than previously thought.

Fed officials have already begun weighing in ahead of the next policy meeting. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated her hawkish tone, stating that the economy remains healthy and she is open to supporting tighter policy if necessary. She noted that while inflation is moving toward target, it remains too high, especially with tariffs potentially stoking a renewed wave of price pressures.

Meanwhile, Japanese and European Union officials are reportedly working on a joint statement to deepen their economic partnership, focusing on advanced technology, trade, and supply chain resilience—moves aimed at counterbalancing rising geopolitical tensions. This comes as Japanese core machinery orders and tertiary industry activity data both beat expectations, boosting hopes for a more resilient Japanese economy.

Market participants are also closely monitoring the upcoming visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, especially in light of President Trump’s latest remarks targeting the auto sector’s trade imbalance. As the Bank of Japan prepares for its July 31 policy meeting, speculation is mounting over a potential upgrade to the central bank’s inflation forecasts.

Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are rising, narrowing yield differentials with global peers, which in turn lends support to the yen. A Second Rejection Could Confirm Double Top and Spark Pullback_1

A Second Rejection Could Confirm Double Top and Spark Pullback_1

Technical Analysis

USDJPY has experienced a strong bullish rally, driving the pair back toward the key resistance zone around 148.00—its local high from June 23. This level has historically served as a significant barrier, and another failure to break above it could set the stage for a bearish correction. A pullback toward the 145.80 zone remains plausible if the price begins to retreat from local top levels.

The 145.80 region is particularly notable, as both the 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 2-hour chart converge around this level. These moving averages often act as dynamic support targets during corrections, and their alignment here adds weight to the probability of a retracement.

Meanwhile, the RSI currently sits at 61, suggesting bullish momentum is still present but approaching overbought territory. A brief retest of the 148.00 resistance could still occur before a more meaningful rejection sets in. Should the price fail to decisively break and close above that level, selling pressure could build—especially if signs of a double-top formation emerge.

However, if USDJPY manages to breach 148.00 with strong bullish conviction, it would invalidate the bearish setup and signal the potential for continued upward movement. For now, traders are eyeing this critical resistance as a tipping point for the next directional move.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 148.00

Target price: 145.85

Stop loss: 149.50

Validity: Jul 25, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Economic

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar remained under pressure on Monday, slipping to three-week lows amid renewed global trade tensions triggered by U.S. tariff threats.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.59750

Entry Price

0.58600

0.60300

0.57845 +0.00091 +0.16%

34.8

Pips

Profit

0.58600

0.59402

Exit Price

0.59750

Entry Price

0.60300

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its losing streak on Monday, pressured by a deteriorating global risk backdrop and a stronger U.S. Dollar, as market sentiment soured following the latest tariff threats from Washington. Risk-sensitive assets such as the Kiwi were hit hard by President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend of fresh punitive tariffs on major trade partners, heightening fears of renewed trade frictions that could weigh on global growth.

At the time of writing, NZD/USD was trading just under the 0.6000 handle, attempting a modest recovery from the intraday low of 0.5975 touched during the Asian session — its weakest level in three weeks. The pair remains down roughly 0.25% on the day, and the technical backdrop suggests sellers are still in control.

The latest pressure on the Kiwi came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a sharp escalation in tariffs on imports from both the European Union and Mexico. The new levies — 30% on EU imports and 30% on Mexican goods — represent a significant jump from the 20% and 25% duties unveiled just weeks earlier on April 2, a date Trump proclaimed “Liberation Day” in reference to American trade policy.

Though markets have not yet reacted with panic, the implications of this aggressive trade stance are clearly being felt in FX. The targeted nations have so far avoided immediate retaliation, instead signaling a willingness to engage in talks ahead of the looming August 1 implementation deadline. Nonetheless, investors remain on edge, concerned that the situation could spiral and reignite a full-scale trade war — a scenario that would be especially damaging for export-dependent economies like New Zealand’s.

The uncertainty is fueling demand for safe-haven assets, boosting the U.S. Dollar and weighing on higher-beta currencies such as the Kiwi, Australian Dollar, and emerging-market FX. Volatility, while contained for now, could rise sharply if rhetoric escalates or if global equity markets begin to buckle under the weight of geopolitical and trade uncertainty.

Providing a partial offset to the risk-off mood was a surprisingly strong set of trade data from China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Chinese exports surged in May, outpacing market expectations and widening the country’s trade surplus. The data reflects a boost from improved U.S.-China trade relations and suggests that Chinese manufacturing activity may be stabilizing after months of weakness.

For New Zealand, whose economy is tightly linked to Chinese demand — particularly for agricultural exports, dairy, and raw commodities — the upbeat numbers offered a degree of reassurance. With China’s second-quarter GDP figures due out on Tuesday, investors will be watching closely for confirmation that the world’s second-largest economy is regaining momentum. A solid GDP reading could offer the Kiwi some reprieve, especially in the absence of major domestic data this week.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD continues to exhibit a bearish structure, with price action dominated by a sequence of lower highs and lower lows — a textbook definition of a downtrend. There are no signs of bullish divergence on key indicators, suggesting that bears still have control of the market narrative.

The pair recently retraced to the 0.382 Fibonacci level, a common turning point during corrective moves, only to face rejection near the 0.6000 round number — an area reinforced by the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA50), which is acting as dynamic resistance. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is beginning to tilt lower after briefly reaching overbought territory, hinting at the emergence of negative divergence that could amplify downside pressure.

Moreover, the pair appears to be trading within a well-defined bearish channel — a continuation pattern that typically results in further declines. Should bearish momentum resume, immediate support lies at 0.5970, followed by 0.5925 and the March swing low near 0.5860. On the upside, any recovery would need to clear the 0.6000 threshold decisively to even begin challenging the bearish bias.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5975

STOP LOSS: 0.6030

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5860

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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