Gold climbs to three‑week high at $3,355–$3,370 amid rising trade‑tariff tension

Commodity

Summary:

Today, gold is trading near $3,354–$3,373/oz, buoyed by a surge in safe‑haven demand triggered by new U.S. tariff threats. With technicals supportive and fundamental outlooks pointing to possible breaks above $3,435, the setup favors a bullish breakout....

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3360.00

Entry Price

3373.00

3345.00

4338.06 +38.67 +0.90%

130.0

Pips

Profit

3345.00

3373.09

Exit Price

3360.00

Entry Price

3373.00

Market Overview

On July 14, 2025, spot gold surged to a three‑week high (~$3,355/oz) as President Trump threatened 30 % tariffs on the EU and Mexico effective August 1 renewing safe‑haven bids. The forecasts suggest prices could push toward $3,435 if gold closes above $3,360. Meanwhile, central bank stockpiling continues, reinforcing underlying structural support.

Market Sentiment

Investor sentiment remains firmly bullish. Trade tensions and geopolitical unpredictability drive renewed interest in gold as a portfolio hedge. Data shows central banks are accumulating over 1,000 tonnes/year, while gold ETFs attracted inflows of around $30 billion in Q1.

Technical Analysis

Gold climbs to three‑week high at $3,355–$3,370 amid rising trade‑tariff tension_1

Bollinger Bands (20,2): Price is riding the upper band (~$3,370) with a squeeze breakout potential momentum strongly positive.

Ichimoku (9,26,52): On lower timeframes, spot gold sits well above the cloud bullish confirmation.

Stochastic (5,3,3): Near high but not yet extreme room exists before overbought territory.

Chart Structure: A bullish ascending channel and triangle pattern confirmed on weekly and M15 charts. Weekly forecast suggests a bounce from weekly support near $3,315, enabling continuation to $3,845 target zone. Current channel resistance lies around $3,374–$3,373, key short‑term level .

Trade Recommendation

Entry (Long): $3,355–$3,365 after confirmation of upper BB breakout or rejection off cloud midline

Take Profit: $3,373–$3,374 next resistance, upper BB, recent daily high

Stop Loss: $3,340 beneath lower BB and recent M15/Kijun support

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Political

Summary:

If this bounce holds, it could pave the way for a continued rally toward the next resistance zone around 1.3884.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.36498

Entry Price

1.38840

1.35200

1.37555 -0.00145 -0.11%

44.9

Pips

Loss

1.35200

1.36049

Exit Price

1.36498

Entry Price

1.38840

Tensions between the U.S. and Canada escalated after President Trump issued a formal letter to Ottawa announcing the implementation of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. As has become customary, the move was justified by citing the alleged influx of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canadian territory. Currency analyst Michael Pfister from Commerzbank noted that Canada’s prior retaliatory response to previous tariffs may have further provoked the current escalation—something Trump has historically shown little tolerance for.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded by emphasizing continued diplomatic engagement with the U.S. as both nations approach the looming August 1 deadline. While the Canadian dollar (CAD) has managed to stabilize in the near term, the renewed tariff threat has added tension to an already delicate backdrop—particularly ahead of Canada's closely watched labor market data due today.

Meanwhile, political speculation is swirling in Washington. Bill Pulte, Trump’s nominee to head the Federal Housing Finance Agency and former chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, referenced unverified reports suggesting that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell might be considering stepping down. In a public statement, Pulte said, “I’m encouraged by reports that Jerome Powell is contemplating resignation. I believe this would be the right move for America, and the economy would thrive as a result.”

Pulte, a staunch Trump ally, has repeatedly voiced his belief that the U.S. president should have direct control over Federal Reserve interest rate decisions—a view that has stirred concerns over the Fed’s independence. It is worth noting that the rumors regarding Powell's resignation remain unconfirmed and speculative at this stage.

Minutes from the Fed’s June 17–18 policy meeting reaffirmed the central bank’s cautious stance, with the majority of officials still concerned about upward inflation risks, particularly those stemming from Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda. While only a few members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) backed the idea of a rate cut in July, the overall hawkish tone helped the U.S. dollar remain strong, near a two-week high as of Thursday.

On the macroeconomic front, fresh data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, beating market expectations and dropping below the previous revised figure of 232,000. This, combined with the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data released last week, reinforces the resilience of the U.S. labor market and suggests that immediate rate cuts are unlikely.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also weighed in, noting that current monetary policy remains restrictive. While she acknowledged that tariffs are not as impactful as previously feared, she indicated that the Fed could begin considering rate adjustments should underlying fundamentals point toward a softening economic outlook. Support Zone Could Be the Launchpad for a Renewed Uptrend_1

Support Zone Could Be the Launchpad for a Renewed Uptrend_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD has found firm support near the 1.3589 level—an area that has previously served as a reliable springboard for bullish momentum. The pair recently posted a strong close above the 9-period moving average, a development that may signal a shift in short-term trend dynamics. If this bounce holds, it could pave the way for a continued rally toward the next resistance zone around 1.3884.

Further supporting the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 27 on June 13, coinciding with the local low of 1.3545. Since then, no new lower lows have been made, hinting at the possibility of a bottom forming in this region. With price stability returning and technical indicators pointing toward recovery, the conditions may be aligning for an extended bullish move from current levels.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3650

Target price: 1.3884

Stop loss: 1.3520

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

If the price action fails to break above 3355 and shows rejection at this resistance, a bearish correction could unfold from current levels.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3365.00

Entry Price

3312.00

3395.00

4338.06 +38.67 +0.90%

165.6

Pips

Profit

3312.00

3348.44

Exit Price

3365.00

Entry Price

3395.00

In the second quarter of the year, net gold purchases by ETF investors totaled 170 tonnes, pushing the total to 397 tonnes in the first half of 2025. According to the World Gold Council (WGC), this marked the strongest first-half inflow into gold ETFs in five years. These inflows played a key role in propelling gold to a record high in April, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

However, recent weeks have seen the influence of ETF buying on gold prices begin to fade, suggesting that the bullish driver from institutional flows may be losing steam, at least in the short term.

Adding fuel to gold’s safe-haven demand, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1. This move follows a series of more than 20 similar tariff notices issued by Trump since the start of the week, including a separate 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports announced last Wednesday. The flurry of aggressive trade measures has pushed investors toward safe assets such as gold.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June 17–18 policy meeting revealed that most policymakers remain concerned about upside inflation risks, largely driven by Trump’s escalating trade policies. While only a few officials supported the idea of a rate cut as early as this month, the hawkish tone helped the U.S. dollar hold near a two-week high recorded on Thursday.

On the economic front, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 for the week ending July 5, better than expected and below the prior revised reading of 232,000. Combined with last week’s stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data, this supports the view that the labor market remains robust and removes urgency for immediate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that monetary policy remains restrictive and that the time may be approaching to consider adjusting rates. She added that while tariffs are not as severe as previously anticipated, underlying economic fundamentals could justify lower rates in the near future.

Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that the inflationary effects of tariffs are likely to be short-lived, emphasizing that any decision to cut rates would not be politically motivated. Waller, seen as a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2026, reiterated his call for a potential rate cut as early as July. Another Failure at Resistance May Lead to a Bearish Reversal_1

Another Failure at Resistance May Lead to a Bearish Reversal_1

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD has climbed to retest the 3366 level—a local high that has acted as strong resistance on two recent occasions. The price also tapped this area on July 2, triggering a sharp downside move from that level. A similar reaction this time around could once again lead to a correction toward the next local support around 3310.

On the 4-hour chart, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 3329 and 3340 respectively. Although price action remains above both moving averages, the RSI has risen to 67, nearing the overbought threshold. Notably, this RSI surge has been steeper than in the previous upswing, which could indicate waning bullish momentum.

If the price action fails to break above 3355 and shows rejection at this resistance, a bearish correction could unfold from current levels. However, if XAUUSD manages to close convincingly above 3366, the bullish trend may be reignited, opening the door for further upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 3365

Target price: 3312

Stop loss: 3395

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

President Trump’s announcement of a sweeping 35% tariff on Canadian imports has reignited trade war anxieties and cast a shadow over U.S.-Canada economic ties.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

37.700

Entry Price

40.000

36.600

63.859 +1.932 +3.12%

29.8

Pips

Profit

36.600

37.998

Exit Price

37.700

Entry Price

40.000

In a striking escalation of North American trade tensions, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a hefty 35% tariff on Canadian imports, reigniting fears of a renewed trade war and threatening to destabilize what has historically been one of the most stable economic relationships in the world. The announcement, delivered via Trump’s favored platform, Truth Social, took markets by surprise and immediately injected a dose of geopolitical risk into investor sentiment, already wary of global headwinds.

The move comes at a sensitive time for both economies. Canada, already grappling with domestic inflation pressures and a slowing housing market, now faces the potential of a significant export drag, while the United States risks alienating one of its top trading partners. U.S.-Canada bilateral trade in goods and services exceeds $800 billion annually, making Canada one of America’s largest export markets.

Trump’s decision marks a sharp departure from recent efforts by the Biden administration to mend and modernize North American trade ties through collaborative channels such as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Trump, however, justified the tariff by accusing Canada of "unfair practices" and failing to align with U.S. strategic interests—though specifics were notably sparse. Analysts believe the move is more political than economic, as Trump continues to push a populist agenda ahead of the 2024 election cycle.

For Canada, the economic implications are immediate. A 35% levy on exports ranging from raw materials to finished consumer goods threatens to disrupt cross-border supply chains and place additional pressure on industries already facing tight margins. Steel, lumber, and agricultural sectors are expected to be among the hardest hit, with ripple effects potentially flowing through North American manufacturing.

Markets responded with caution. The Canadian dollar weakened slightly against its U.S. counterpart, while major equity indices in Toronto posted modest declines. Investors fear that this latest tariff salvo could spark retaliatory measures from Ottawa, reminiscent of the tit-for-tat dynamic seen during Trump’s previous term.

"While it's too early to assess the full impact, the optics are troubling," said Hannah McAllister, head of global trade strategy at Northwood Capital. "We’re seeing a re-emergence of the kind of unilateralism that eroded confidence during the 2018–2020 trade skirmishes."

As trade tensions re-enter market narratives, safe-haven assets are starting to show renewed strength — and silver is no exception. The precious metal rose sharply during the latest intraday session, breaking above the critical resistance level at $37.30. The move was driven by a combination of risk-off flows and strong technical tailwinds.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

From a chart perspective, silver’s bullish bias remains intact. Prices have been hugging a rising bias line that has acted as dynamic support throughout the rally. In the latest session, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashed further upside signals, even as it approached overbought territory — an indication that momentum remains firmly in favor of the bulls.

The breakout above $37.30 is significant, not only because it breaches a key psychological threshold but also because it clears the way for a potential test of the $38.50 and $40.00 zones — the latter representing the highest levels seen since the 2020 stimulus-driven rally.

Traders should remain mindful of short-term consolidation risks, especially with the RSI nearing extremes. However, unless price action decisively falls below the $36.50 support zone, dips are likely to be bought, with market sentiment increasingly skewed toward precious metals amid geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-driven macro disruptions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 37.70

STOP LOSS: 36.60

TAKE PROFIT: 40.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Summary:

The UK's economic data released on Friday exhibited a lackluster performance, prompting a corrective rebound in GBPJPY. The UK's GDP contracted by 0.1% MoM in May, undershooting the market's expected growth of 0.1% MoM. Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions have heightened the uncertainty surrounding Japan's economic outlook, exerting downward pressure on the Japanese yen.

BUY GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

198.776

Entry Price

204.140

196.000

207.570 -0.753 -0.36%

26.9

Pips

Profit

196.000

199.045

Exit Price

198.776

Entry Price

204.140

Fundamentals

GBPJPY steadied after a modest decline on Friday, oscillating in the positive territory near the 199.20 level during the Asian session. Data revealed that the UK's GDP declined by 0.1% MoM in May, following a 0.3% contraction in April, significantly underperforming the market's expectation of a 0.1% expansion. This underscores the fragile recovery of the UK economy.

In the services sector, output rose by 0.4% MoM in May, down from 0.6% in April. Industrial production and manufacturing output both fell more sharply, declining by 0.9% and 1.0% respectively in May, both below market estimates. These weak data have raised concerns about the UK's economic outlook and weighed on the pound.

Additionally, the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) warned in its mid-year report on Wednesday that financial markets are facing multiple systemic risks. The FPC noted that "the prices of risky assets could see a significant correction, asset allocation could change abruptly, and the risk of a breakdown in historical correlations remains significant." The report emphasized that geopolitical tensions, the fragmentation of the global trading and financial system, and sovereign debt pressures are the main challenges to the UK's financial stability at present.

Nevertheless, the yen's weakness has provided some support to GBPJPY. As trade tensions intensify, Japan's economy faces increased downside risks. This is especially true in the context of the US-Japan trade negotiations, where a deadlock over market access for Japanese rice has led to the possibility of a 25% punitive tariff on Japanese exports to the US.

On the other hand, Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) for May indicated that inflation may be receding, which could further diminish the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates this year. Overall, the yen's outlook remains under pressure, providing some cushion for the pound against the yen.

Failed Head and Shoulders Pattern Signals Renewed Upside Potential_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBPJPY's intraday trend appears neutral, consolidating below the 199.80 level. Earlier today, the daily GBPJPY bulls broke through the right shoulder on the one-hour chart, leading to the failure of the head and shoulders pattern. This suggests that the bulls may resume their upward push. As long as the key support level at 196.00 holds, the market anticipates that the exchange rate could rebound further in the future.

Should the exchange rate break above the resistance level at 199.80, it could potentially restart the upward trend within the range of 184.35 to 199.79, aiming for a final target of 204.14.

Overall, given the interplay of multiple fundamental and technical factors, the short-term trajectory of GBPJPY remains closely monitored by investors. Future policy developments and the evolution of trade tensions are also expected to have a profound impact on the foreign exchange market.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 198.50

Target Price: 204.14

Stop Loss: 196.00

Deadline: July 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 198.49/198.22/197.92

Resistance: 199.47/199.89/200.53

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

Gold prices surged above $3,340 on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump slapped a 35% tariff on all Canadian imports, igniting fears of a broader global trade war.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3349.67

Entry Price

3400.00

3310.00

4338.06 +38.67 +0.90%

119.4

Pips

Profit

3310.00

3361.61

Exit Price

3349.67

Entry Price

3400.00

Gold (XAU/USD) roared higher on Friday, breaching the $3,340 mark and extending its bullish streak as escalating trade tensions overshadowed the impact of rising U.S. Treasury yields. The surge in demand for the yellow metal was triggered by a dramatic escalation in protectionist rhetoric from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who announced sweeping tariffs on Canadian goods—a move that sent shockwaves through global financial markets and rekindled fears of a 2018-style global trade war.

In an unexpected and aggressive policy shift, Trump declared that all Canadian imports to the United States would be subject to a 35% tariff effective August 1. The announcement stunned markets given the deeply integrated nature of the U.S.-Canada trade relationship. According to Statistics Canada, over 76% of Canadian exports in 2024 have been destined for the U.S. economy. The magnitude and scope of the tariff raise the stakes dramatically for both economies and the global trade system at large.

Trump’s comments didn’t stop with Canada. In a statement that left analysts scrambling to assess the geopolitical fallout, he hinted that similar tariffs could be extended to other nations: “We’re just going to say all of the remaining countries are going to pay, whether it’s 20% or 15%. We’ll work that out now.”

That vague but threatening language stoked fresh volatility, with investors rushing into traditional safe-haven assets like gold, the Swiss franc, and U.S. Treasuries. The prospect of a domino effect in global tariff escalation reintroduced a strong geopolitical risk premium to the market — an environment in which gold typically thrives.

Notably, this move from Trump comes at a time when central banks globally have already been walking a monetary tightrope, attempting to tame inflation without derailing growth. The threat of a major trade disruption complicates that calculus, particularly for the Federal Reserve, which has been battling sticky inflation while weighing the risks of overtightening.

Ordinarily, a rise in U.S. Treasury yields would act as a headwind for gold, a non-yielding asset. However, Friday's market reaction underscored how risk aversion can override traditional rate dynamics. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield climbed toward 4.40%, yet gold’s upward momentum remained intact, underpinned by a rush to preserve capital in the face of uncertain global trade policy.

“The move is reminiscent of the 2018 trade war episode,” said a senior FX strategist at Saxo Markets. “Back then, gold rallied despite a strong dollar and climbing yields. Right now, we’re seeing a similar flight to safety. The bigger the uncertainty, the more attractive gold becomes.”

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold’s intraday surge was further validated by a clean break above a short-term bearish correctional trendline, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure. The move was bolstered by the commodity’s positioning above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a dynamic support zone that has acted as a launchpad for recent upward thrusts.

Additionally, momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have flipped back into positive territory, suggesting that buyers remain in control and that there’s room for further gains before the metal enters overbought conditions.

Initial resistance is eyed near $3,360, with a successful breach potentially opening the path to test the psychologically significant $3,400 barrier. On the downside, $3,300 now becomes a critical support level, with the EMA50 reinforcing that zone as a pivot.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3350

STOP LOSS: 3310

TAKE PROFIT: 3400

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart are located at 1.1219 and 1.0885, respectively, providing ample room for a more significant retracement.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16700

Entry Price

1.15000

1.18200

1.17550 +0.00156 +0.13%

50.0

Pips

Profit

1.15000

1.16200

Exit Price

1.16700

Entry Price

1.18200

In the week ending July 6, initial jobless claims in the United States decreased by 5,000 to 227,000, defying market expectations for an increase to 235,000. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading in nearly two months, providing further evidence that the U.S. labor market remains resilient despite ongoing concerns over high interest rates and trade-related uncertainties.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently commented on the job market’s fragility, warning that any increase in layoffs could quickly drive the unemployment rate higher. This highlights the Fed's cautious approach as they continue to assess the impact of inflation and employment data, delaying any major policy actions for now.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem expressed optimism about the economy, noting that the labor market is nearly at full employment. However, he also cautioned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside, particularly due to the ongoing effects of tariffs, which have yet to fully manifest. A weaker U.S. dollar could exacerbate these inflationary pressures in the coming months.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar will feature remarks from key Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Across the Atlantic, UK market participants will focus on GDP and industrial production data, as well as manufacturing figures, which could significantly influence market sentiment.

On the trade front, with reciprocal tariffs delayed until August 1, investors are betting that the Trump administration may delay or suspend both the tariff packages initially announced in April and new tariffs targeting specific countries and sectors. Many market participants remain hopeful that the majority of Trump’s tariff threats will not materialize, and trader confidence is building as inflationary pressures from these tariffs remain subdued.

The U.S. and the European Union are reportedly moving closer to an agreement, with a potential framework deal set to be finalized before the August 1 deadline. European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič indicated that significant progress had been made, with a deal possibly including a base tariff of around 10% but with exceptions for key products such as Airbus aircraft. Although the U.S. has postponed its initial deadline, President Trump has warned that there will be no further delays and has begun sending formal tariff notices to other countries, increasing pressure on EU negotiators.

Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated the EU’s "unwavering" efforts to secure an "in-principle" agreement that would provide stability to businesses, acknowledging that tariffs are a "lose-lose" scenario. However, divisions within the EU persist, with Germany pushing for a quick agreement to protect its automobile exports, while countries like France, Spain, Italy, and Denmark prefer a more comprehensive and balanced trade framework.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. However, market participants still believe the ECB may cut rates at least once more before the end of the year, as inflation remains close to target and economic growth across the Eurozone continues to show signs of fragility. Overbought Conditions Suggest Deeper Correction for EURUSD_1

Overbought Conditions Suggest Deeper Correction for EURUSD_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is currently experiencing a strong bullish momentum and has recently formed a rising wedge pattern, peaking at a local high of 1.1838 on July 1. Since then, the price has rejected these levels, printing strong bearish candles and closing below the 9-period moving average. This could confirm the onset of a deeper correction toward the 1.1500 level. The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the daily chart are located at 1.1219 and 1.0885, respectively, providing ample room for a more significant retracement.

The RSI reached a high of 75.9, entering well into overbought territory, signaling that bullish momentum may be losing steam. This could lead EUR/USD to correct toward the lower boundary of the rising wedge. If the price breaks below this level with strength, the correction could extend further. However, if the price manages to break the recent local high and close above it decisively, the bullish trend could resume.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1672

Target price: 1.1500

Stop loss: 1.1820

Validity: Jul 22, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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