Bulls vs. Bears! Can Gold Hold Above 4000?

Tank

Commodity

Forex

Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3964.80

Entry Price

4300.00

3750.00

4209.72 +11.81 +0.28%

341.5

Pips

Profit

3750.00

3998.95

Exit Price

3964.80

Entry Price

4300.00

Fundamentals

Amid expectations of a potential U.S.-China trade agreement and considering the Federal Reserve's possible shift towards a less dovish monetary policy stance, gold prices have recently experienced a significant correction as traders lock in profits. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on Wednesday, aligning with market consensus. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that if rate reductions hinder the Fed's access to crucial employment and inflation data, policymakers may adopt a more cautious approach. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 72.8%, down from 91.1% just a week prior. According to a report by Reuters, the latest findings from the World Gold Council indicate that "global gold demand in the third quarter increased by 3% year-on-year to 1,313 metric tons, reaching a historic high due to a surge in investment demand," which has also driven a rebound in gold prices. Currently, it remains to be seen whether gold can regain its upward momentum as the U.S. dollar appreciates against major currencies to a two-month high. Additionally, the ongoing contraction in China's manufacturing sector poses a negative impact on gold prices. China, being the world's largest gold consumer, saw its official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October fall from 49.8 in September to 49.0, the lowest in six months. This suggests that, amid signs of a government shutdown and no imminent reopening, the market is acting blindly due to a lack of data, while persistent concerns over the U.S. economy and fiscal policy may provide some cushion against further declines in gold.

The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 30th day, intensifying the political deadlock and escalating risks to economic stability and societal functions. Vice President Vance warned that a prolonged shutdown could significantly disrupt transportation and travel during the holiday season. Maryland has declared a state of emergency and allocated US$10 million to mitigate potential disruptions to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). The shutdown erodes public confidence in government governance and heightens uncertainty regarding a soft landing for the economy, thereby reinforcing gold's role as a safe haven during political turmoil. Major global central banks maintain dovish monetary stances, further solidifying market expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank's latest monetary policy meetings both decided to hold interest rates steady, reflecting the overall global monetary policy stance remains accommodative. Despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's slight reservations regarding Fed Chair Powell's hawkish rhetoric, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December remain high at around 70%. This dovish outlook continues to suppress real yields and the U.S. dollar, creating a favorable financial environment for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold.

Technical Analysis

In the 1H timeframe, the price is oscillating between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands. The MACD is currently experiencing a second retracement above the zero-axis. If the MACD line and signal line form a golden cross above zero-axis again, a bullish trend is likely to develop. Resistance levels are observed near the EMA200 at approximately 4045 and the psychological round number at 4100. The RSI stands at 54, indicating a predominantly cautious market sentiment in the short term. In the 1D timeframe, the MACD has formed a death cross, with the MACD line and signal line still retracing towards the zero-axis, suggesting the correction is incomplete. The RSI is at 51, with investors remaining cautious. If the price can re-establish above the EMA12, a potential rally toward the resistance range around 4133 could occur. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Bulls vs. Bears! Can Gold Hold Above 4000?_1

Bulls vs. Bears! Can Gold Hold Above 4000?_2

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3965

Target Price: 4300

Stop Loss: 3750

Support: 3900, 3800, 3600

Resistance: 4380, 4500, 5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This immediate reclamation of the 200-MA strongly suggests that bulls are interested in defending and controlling the price from this level.

BUY USDCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.39400

Entry Price

1.40300

1.38900

1.38196 +0.00049 +0.04%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.38900

1.40092

Exit Price

1.39400

Entry Price

1.40300

Major geopolitical events are easing global tensions. Earlier on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded talks during the APEC summit in South Korea. The two leaders formalized a one-year trade truce, which involves the U.S. lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from roughly 57% to 47%. In exchange, China committed to resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans. Trump also stated that China agreed to ensure the "flow of rare earths, critical minerals, magnets, etc., openly and freely."

The U.S. central bank, meanwhile, delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps reduction in the federal funds rate, setting the new target range at 3.75%-4.00%. The decision was not unanimous, with Governor Stephen Miran arguing for a deeper 50 bps cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferring to hold rates steady.

In its Monetary Policy Statement, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, but job gains have slowed, and inflation remains elevated. Policymakers admitted that uncertainty surrounding the outlook is high, and downside risks to employment have increased. Notably, the Committee announced plans to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) by halting the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1st, effectively signaling a pause in balance sheet contraction. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the ongoing tension between fighting inflation and supporting employment, suggesting the policy rate is now within the range of many neutral estimates. He also highlighted a "growing chorus" within the Committee advocating for patience before making another move.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor, Tiff Macklem, issued a surprisingly hawkish assessment after the bank's recent rate cut. Macklem stated that the policy rate is now "roughly at the right level if inflation and activity evolve as projected," a comment that suggested a stronger outlook than implied by the easing. The BoC maintains its forecast for inflation to stabilize around 2%, although it revised its GDP projections for 2025 and 2026 slightly downward.

Macklem emphasized that the Canadian economy continues to grapple with significant headwinds, largely due to restrictive U.S. trade policy and sluggish global demand. He stressed the limits of monetary policy in stimulating demand while tariffs continue to damage key sectors like automotive and lumber. As a result, the BoC now forecasts that the GDP level will be approximately 1.5% lower by the end of 2026 compared to its earlier January projection. The bank also pointed to a weakening labor market, with the unemployment rate climbing to 7.1%. Bulls Await Re-Entry at Key Moving Average as Rally Consolidates_1

Bulls Await Re-Entry at Key Moving Average as Rally Consolidates_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD recently executed a sharp bounce from the local low of 1.3887 (reached on October 29th). Following this brief touch, the price reacted strongly to the upside, quickly reclaiming the 200-period Moving Average (MA), which is located at 1.3940. This immediate reclamation of the 200-MA strongly suggests that bulls are interested in defending and controlling the price from this level.

The subsequent rally pushed the price to the 100-period MA at 1.4003, and the pair now appears to be entering a state of consolidation. If this consolidation phase leads to a pullback and the price approaches the 200-period MA once more, it would present a compelling long opportunity for traders to target the local resistance at 1.4034.

Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 57, remaining well out of oversold territory. However, the RSI is showing a slightly higher reading compared to previous, higher price levels, signaling a subtle divergence in the bullish momentum. This divergence indicates that a slight downward consolidation or pullback is likely before the next significant upward impulse can occur. Conversely, if the price breaks and closes decisively below the 200-period MA (1.3940), the current bullish setup would be invalidated.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3940

Target price: 1.4030

Stop loss: 1.3890

Validity: Nov 11, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This breakdown below the 100-period MA serves as a technical confirmation that the bearish momentum could extend significantly.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16000

Entry Price

1.13910

1.17100

1.16527 +0.00101 +0.09%

9.9

Pips

Profit

1.13910

1.15901

Exit Price

1.16000

Entry Price

1.17100

The President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, indicated that monetary policy is "in a good place" as economic risks subside and the Eurozone (EZ) economy shows signs of resilience. Lagarde specifically noted that de-escalating trade tensions between Europe and the U.S., a lessening of conflict in the Middle East, and the U.S.-China trade truce have all served to mitigate downside risks to growth projections.

The ECB revealed that inflation is near the 2% target and affirmed that it is not pre-committing to any particular rate path. The central bank commented: "The economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment." The ECB also credited "The robust labor market, sound private sector balance sheets and the ECB's past interest rate cuts remain important sources of resilience." However, it acknowledged that "The outlook remains uncertain, due in particular to ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions," and reiterated its determination to ensure inflation stabilizes at its 2% medium-term objective. The ECB is expected to release its updated economic projections through 2028 at the December meeting, and any internal policymaker expectations of persistent below-target inflation would warrant a discussion on further accommodation.

Major geopolitical and monetary developments are reshaping the global market landscape. Earlier on Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded talks on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea. The two leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce, which includes the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from roughly 57% to 47% and China committing to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans. Trump also asserted that China has agreed to "continue the flow of rare earths, critical minerals, magnets, etc., openly and freely."

Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank delivered a widely anticipated 25 bps reduction in the federal funds rate, setting the target range at 3.75%-4.00%. The decision was not unanimous, with Governor Stephen Miran favoring a deeper 50 bps cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid preferring to keep rates unchanged.

In its Monetary Policy Statement, the Federal Reserve noted that economic activity continues to expand at a moderate pace, though job gains have slowed and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Policymakers admitted that uncertainty surrounding the outlook remains high and that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months. The Committee also announced plans to end Quantitative Tightening (QT) by halting the reduction of its securities holdings on December 1st, signaling a pause in balance sheet reduction. During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of the tension between addressing inflation and supporting employment, stressing that both cannot be solved with a single policy tool. He added that the policy rate is now within the range of many neutral estimates and that any stabilization or strengthening in labor market data would influence future policy decisions. Powell also mentioned a "growing chorus" within the Committee suggesting it might be prudent to wait before making another rate move. Bearish Momentum Confirmed Below Key Moving Average_1

Bearish Momentum Confirmed Below Key Moving Average_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD reached its local high of 1.1922 on September 17th. Since then, the price has entered a distinct downward correction. The pair recently delivered a decisive close below the 100-period Moving Average (MA), which is currently situated at 1.1593 on the daily chart. This breakdown below the 100-period MA serves as a technical confirmation that the bearish momentum could extend significantly.

The initial downside target for this extended movement is the next major support level at 1.1391, a zone that also converges with the 200-period MA (currently at 1.1161, implying the 200-MA will move higher towards this support).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 40, which is well above the oversold threshold. This neutral positioning suggests that the downward price action has considerable room to run before bearish exhaustion sets in. If the price breaks the immediate support level of 1.1543, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Conversely, a strong bullish break and close above 1.1655 would invalidate the current bearish potential and open the door for a continuation of the prior uptrend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1600

Target price: 1.1391

Stop loss: 1.1710

Validity: Nov 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Ethereum is currently quoted at $3,879. After Thursday’s meeting between U.S. and China leaders, overall market risk appetite did not improve significantly, and the crypto market remained in a narrow trading range. Although some investors expected that easing geopolitical tensions might revive risk assets, major cryptocurrencies failed to extend their rebound momentum. In the short term, Ethereum is constrained by technical resistance and outflows of capital, and may continue to oscillate in the $3,800–4,000 range.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

3642.15

Entry Price

4380.00

3340.00

3156.53 +129.57 +4.28%

3021.5

Pips

Loss

3340.00

3337.14

Exit Price

3642.15

Entry Price

4380.00

Fundamentals

Recently the market focus has been on the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting and the monetary policy outlook from the Fed. Geopolitical risk once drove a strengthening dollar and weighed on high-risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. After the U.S.–China meeting, no significant stimulus or economic/financial cooperation signals were released, global market sentiment became cautious, which deprived the crypto market of a catalyst for rebound.

In addition, according to CoinShares data, Ethereum-related fund products recorded around $25 million in net outflows last week, marking the third consecutive week of outflows, reflecting institutional investors’ cautious stance on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Ethereum network activity did not improve significantly — on-chain transaction volume and DeFi total value locked (TVL) both fell about 3% compared with September, indicating that the fundamentals currently lack the internal strength to drive prices higher.

On the policy front, the Fed is maintaining a tone of “keeping rates high for a longer period,” which continues to suppress valuations of risk assets. If October’s U.S. PCE data remains elevated, it may further weaken the rebound space for cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum’s Rebound Lacks Strength, Short-Term Still Under Pressure_1

Technical Analysis

Ethereum’s price, after breaking above $4,000 in mid-October, was repeatedly capped near the $4,100–4,300 range, forming a temporary top. Currently the price has fallen back to around $3,879, and the short-term structure is in a downward trend channel.

The first support lies at $3,820; if it is broken, the next target will be around $3,720 (previous heavy trading zone).

On the upside, resistance is at $3,950 and $4,020; only a successful breakthrough above $4,000 might allow the short-term structure to reverse from bearish.

Ethereum’s price failed to benefit from a rebound in risk appetite after the U.S.–China leaders’ meeting, reflecting the market’s continued caution about macro and liquidity conditions. Short-term trend remains weak, investors should closely monitor inflation and employment data, as well as ETH main-net development progress and fund flow changes. In the absence of fundamental drivers, Ethereum’s price is very likely to remain in a range, with a defensive stance advised while waiting for a new directional signal.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3645

Target Price: 4380

Stop Loss: 3340

Valid Until: November 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3840 / 3710 / 3649

Resistance Levels: 4024 / 4115 / 4253

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

GBP/USD extended its three-day slide, dropping below 1.3200 amid a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, while market attention turns to the Bank of England’s upcoming policy decision and UK fiscal plans.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31700

Entry Price

1.27000

1.33000

1.33277 -0.00035 -0.03%

24.7

Pips

Profit

1.27000

1.31453

Exit Price

1.31700

Entry Price

1.33000

GBP/USD extended its losses for a third consecutive session on Thursday, tumbling over 0.25% as traders pushed the currency pair below the key 1.3200 handle. At the time of writing, the British pound trades near 1.3160, after briefly touching a daily high of 1.3218. The move comes in the wake of a “hawkish” U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, with Chairman Jerome Powell signaling that a further reduction in December is “far from a foregone conclusion,” dampening hopes for additional monetary easing.

The latest Federal Reserve decision saw rates cut to a range of 3.75%-4%, though the vote was not unanimous. Fed Governor Stephen Miran pushed for a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid voted to keep rates unchanged. In addition, the Fed announced the conclusion of Quantitative Easing on December 1, underscoring a cautious approach amid limited U.S. economic data caused by the ongoing government shutdown, now entering its 30th day. Powell emphasized that risks remain tilted to the upside for inflation and downside for employment, adding that constructive discussions took place regarding the December meeting.

The pound remains under pressure ahead of next week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy decision and the UK government’s fiscal announcements. Reports from the Financial Times suggest Chancellor Reeves is considering an early removal of the windfall tax on the UK oil and gas sector, while The Telegraph notes a possible 2% increase in income tax is on the table. These potential fiscal changes have added to the cautious sentiment surrounding sterling.

The U.S. economic calendar remains light, with market participants eyeing speeches from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan later today, followed by comments from Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack at a research conference on Friday. These remarks are expected to provide further guidance on the Fed’s stance amid the ongoing uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is displaying a bearish bias. The pair’s recent failure to hold above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3242 has paved the way for the decline below 1.3200. Intraday, the pair has found temporary support around 1.3190.This support has helped the pound stabilize marginally and recover from oversold conditions indicated by relative strength metrics.

Despite these brief gains, the overarching trend remains firmly negative. A sustained daily close below the 200-day SMA would confirm a shift in market sentiment, exposing further downside targets at the psychologically significant 1.3000 level and the April 8 low of 1.2700.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3170

STOP LOSS: 1.3300

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro remains firm near record highs against the Japanese yen after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-dovish stance, reinforcing yen weakness.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

178.490

Entry Price

182.000

177.050

181.144 +0.271 +0.15%

144.0

Pips

Loss

177.050

177.046

Exit Price

178.490

Entry Price

182.000

The euro is holding near record highs against the Japanese yen on Thursday, as the Japanese currency continues to languish under the weight of the Bank of Japan’s dovish policy stance. The EUR/JPY pair traded around 178.30 in European afternoon hours, up roughly 0.6% on the day, as investors digested the BoJ’s latest monetary policy decision and looked ahead to the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement later in the session.

The Bank of Japan left its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.50%, a move that was widely expected by markets. The decision, backed by a 7–2 majority, saw board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata dissent in favor of a 25-basis point hike to 0.75%, highlighting a growing but still limited divide within the board over the pace of policy normalization.

Despite persistent inflation pressures and rising wages in Japan, the central bank maintained a cautious approach. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that monetary conditions would remain accommodative “as long as necessary,” noting that the economy was still facing uncertainty from both global trade and geopolitical risks. “We will continue to raise the policy rate if the economy and prices move in line with forecasts,” Ueda said, while emphasizing that the bank must remain vigilant amid fragile global demand and policy uncertainty in major economies.

The tone from the BoJ reinforced the view that Japan’s normalization path will be slow and incremental — a stance that continues to undermine the yen’s appeal. The currency remains one of the weakest among major peers this year, pressured by a wide yield gap with the U.S. and Europe. The spread between Japanese and European bond yields remains particularly stark, fueling carry trade demand that favors the euro and other higher-yielding currencies.

In contrast, the euro found additional support from stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data earlier in the day. Preliminary figures showed that the Eurozone’s GDP expanded by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, outpacing expectations for 0.1%. On an annual basis, growth reached 1.3% year-on-year, slightly above forecasts and suggesting that the bloc’s economy continues to show resilience despite high borrowing costs and sluggish manufacturing activity.

The data underpins the ECB’s case for maintaining its current cautious stance rather than pivoting toward renewed tightening. Inflation in the euro area has eased in recent months but remains above the central bank’s target, while the economic outlook remains fragile amid weak business sentiment and subdued consumer spending.

Attention now turns to the ECB’s monetary policy decision, scheduled for 13:15 GMT. Markets expect all three key policy rates to remain unchanged — the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Operations Rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility Rate at 2.40%. Traders will focus on Christine Lagarde’s post-meeting remarks for any hints on whether the ECB may adjust its stance before year-end or maintain its “higher for longer” rate posture.

Lagarde’s tone could be pivotal for short-term moves in the euro. A hawkish signal emphasizing inflation risks could reinforce euro strength, while any dovish hints about policy easing in early 2026 could cap gains. For now, traders appear comfortable betting on further euro resilience against the yen, given the clear divergence between the ECB’s relatively steady approach and the BoJ’s entrenched dovishness.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY maintains a bullish outlook after breaking above the 178.80 resistance level earlier in the session — a move that signals continued upward momentum. A sustained move above this threshold could open the way for further gains toward 180.00 and potentially 182.00, marking fresh multi-year highs.

However, a pullback below 177.05 would invalidate the near-term bullish bias, likely triggering a corrective move toward 176.30 and 175.65. For today, analysts expect the trading range between 177.10 and 178.65, with momentum indicators still favoring the upside as long as the pair holds above 177.00.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 178.50

STOP LOSS: 177.05

TAKE PROFIT: 182.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The EUR/GBP pair hovered near 0.8800 on Thursday, its highest level since May 2023, after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged and reaffirmed a data-dependent stance.

BUY EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.87900

Entry Price

0.89000

0.87100

0.87433 +0.00117 +0.13%

21.3

Pips

Profit

0.87100

0.88113

Exit Price

0.87900

Entry Price

0.89000

The EUR/GBP pair consolidated near a five-month high around 0.8800 on Thursday, buoyed by a broadly steady Euro and a fragile Pound Sterling. The divergence between the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious optimism and the United Kingdom’s faltering domestic outlook has reignited buying interest in the cross, underscoring the widening policy gap between Frankfurt and London.

The ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged, as expected — maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the marginal lending facility at 2.4%, and the deposit facility at 2%. The central bank emphasized that inflation remains close to its medium-term 2% target, signaling no urgency for further easing. The policy statement struck a balanced tone, highlighting both resilience and risk: while Eurozone growth continues to hold firm, the global economic backdrop remains riddled with uncertainties, from ongoing trade tensions to geopolitical flare-ups.

At her post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde maintained a cautiously confident stance. She acknowledged that “the outlook remains uncertain,” but emphasized that underlying inflation trends are broadly consistent with the ECB’s price stability objective. Lagarde also cited the Eurozone’s strong labor market and the delayed benefits of prior rate cuts as reasons for stability in economic activity. Yet, she warned that external risks — particularly the war in Ukraine and fragile global trade dynamics — could still weigh on the medium-term outlook.

Notably, Lagarde pointed out that a stronger Euro could dampen imported inflation pressures, potentially complicating the ECB’s task of maintaining price stability. At the same time, she cautioned that higher defense spending across member states might inject fresh inflationary pressures, suggesting that the central bank will continue to take a data-dependent approach rather than committing to any pre-defined policy path.

Economic data out of Germany earlier in the day provided additional reassurance to the ECB. Preliminary figures showed annual CPI inflation easing slightly to 2.3% in October, down from 2.4% in September, marginally above forecasts. Similarly, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) — the ECB’s preferred inflation measure — slipped to 2.3% year-on-year. While the readings confirm disinflation progress, they also highlight the challenge of achieving further moderation without risking growth momentum.

Across the Channel, the Pound Sterling remains on the defensive. Traders are increasingly concerned that the UK economy could face deeper structural headwinds following the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) decision to cut productivity growth forecasts by 0.3%, a downgrade that could expand the fiscal deficit by £20 billion. The revision arrives just weeks ahead of the Autumn Budget on November 26, putting additional pressure on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to balance fiscal prudence with growth incentives.

This weaker outlook reinforces expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may soon pivot toward a more dovish policy stance. Money markets are now pricing in a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, while Goldman Sachs and other analysts suggest the first rate reduction could come as early as next week. The possibility of an accelerated easing cycle contrasts sharply with the ECB’s steady-hand approach, driving renewed upward momentum in EUR/GBP.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the pair’s price action has turned decisively bullish. EUR/GBP broke through a key weekly resistance with conviction, invalidating previous bearish projections. The breakout suggests renewed buying momentum, with price expected to retest the broken border zone before potentially extending gains toward the 0.8900 area — a level aligned with the upper boundary of the recent consolidation range.

Traders are closely monitoring short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities, particularly near the low-volume node identified around 0.8770–0.8780. Sustained closes above 0.8800 could confirm the formation of a bullish continuation pattern, while a break below 0.8750 would be needed to challenge the upward bias.