With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a total of 25 basis points, all eyes are focused on the economic forecast summary, the so-called chart, and the remarks of Chairman Jerome Powell to determine whether the US central bank will cut interest rates more than twice this year. Influenced by weak August labor data and persistently high inflation, calls for the Fed to adopt aggressive easing measures are growing, sparking concerns about stagflation in the US economy. According to Refinitiv's interest rate probabilities, the market is anticipating a total of 67.9 basis points in rate cuts by the end of this year. Influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy statement, the price of non-yielding gold is expected to experience significant volatility. If the Fed confirms recent dovish expectations, specifically three interest rate cuts by the end of the year, the price of gold is likely to reach new all-time highs. Conversely, if the chart indicates Fed officials are maintaining the prospect of two interest rate cuts, or if Powell's remarks sound less dovish, the dollar could gain new momentum, triggering a new round of correction in gold. In summary, gold's fate hinges on the Fed's decision and its future interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, traders will continue to liquidate long positions in gold, though bargain-hunting may emerge at lower levels.

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year amid intense political pressure and economic uncertainty. The 25-basis-point reduction sent the dollar tumbling to multi-month lows against major currencies, with the dollar index dipping below 97.00. While the Fed cited labor market weakness as justification for easing policy, persistent inflation concerns and tariff-driven price pressures create a complex backdrop for future policy decisions. Market expectations point to further rate cuts by year-end, suggesting the dollar's strength remains constrained. While the Fed pledged to adjust policy based on data, this leaves room for a potential shift in monetary policy direction.

From the 4-hour chart, gold broke the upper band of the Bollinger Bands and hit a new all-time high before pulling back under pressure. It is currently finding support near the EMA12, forming a consolidation pattern. The MACD line and signal line have formed a death cross signal, and the rising momentum bar is gradually weakening, indicating a top divergence signal. The RSI reading is 58, suggesting the market remains bullish but is entering a wait-and-see sentiment. If gold can consistently hold above the EMA12, it is likely to surge toward 3700 or even 4000. If it fails to hold, it may decline to the EMA50 or even the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, with prices at 3632 and 3613, respectively. From the weekly chart, the price broke above the upper boundary of the triangular consolidation pattern and has been rising strongly along the upper Bollinger Band. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, the moving averages are diverging higher, and the MACD has formed a golden cross pattern. The RSI reading of 73 has entered the overbought zone, suggesting a potential pullback at any time. Overall, the price may retest the upper edge of the triangle before breaking upward again. However, as long as it does not fall below the EMA12, the upward trend remains intact. For the strategy, it is recommended to go long at lows.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3635

Target price: 3900

Stop loss: 3550

Support: 3600, 3550, 3400

Resistance: 3700, 3800, 3900