Following the U.S. Army Delta Force's Saturday raid on Venezuela and the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro and his spouse, bilateral tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have escalated. Bloomberg reports that on Monday, Maduro refused to plead guilty to the U.S. drug trafficking terrorism charges, triggering a significant geopolitical litigation with far-reaching implications. The mounting geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the region have driven up prices of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold. "The Venezuela situation has evidently rekindled safe-haven demand, but this is occurring amidst concerns over geopolitical stability, energy supply, and monetary policy," stated Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Deutsche Helios Metall. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained holdings at 1,065.13 tons. In the industry sector, Michael Widmer, head of metal research at Bank of America, noted that 13 major North American gold miners are projected to see a 2% year-over-year decline in 2026 production to 19.2 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs expected to rise by 3% to approximately US$1,600 per ounce. He emphasized that market expectations for gold output remain overly optimistic. The bank considers gold a crucial hedge within investment portfolios and forecasts the 2026 average price could reach US$4,538 per ounce.

In terms of economic data, S&P Global's weekly report indicates that the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI remained at 51.8, signifying ongoing expansion in the manufacturing sector. Conversely, the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing PMI declined from 48.2 in November to 47.9 last month, reflecting continued contraction in business activity. These figures did not temper dovish expectations, causing the U.S. dollar to retreat from nearly four-week highs reached on Monday and further supporting the rally in non-yielding gold. Market forecasts suggest the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March and potentially implement an additional cut by the end of the year. Such dovish monetary policy outlook has driven gold prices higher. Recent minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee indicate that most Fed officials consider further rate cuts appropriate as long as inflation continues to decline, though there remains divergence over the timing and magnitude of reductions. Lower interest rates may reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thereby supporting its price as a non-yielding asset. The upcoming December U.S. employment report, scheduled for release on Friday, will garner significant attention. Markets generally anticipate an increase of 55,000 new jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Should the data surpass expectations, it could bolster the dollar in the short term and exert downward pressure on commodity prices denominated in U.S. dollars.

The bullish envelope of the Bollinger Bands in the 1H timeframe is opening upward, with SMAs diverging upwards. Overall, the short-term bullish trend remains intact, with a high probability of testing the 4480 and 4500 levels. However, the upward momentum is beginning to slow, indicating increased resistance overhead. The MACD is forming a death cross, with the MACD line and signal line currently pulling back toward the zero-axis, suggesting an ongoing correction. A breach below the middle Bollinger Band could lead to a corrective move toward the EMA50 or the lower Bollinger Band, at approximately 4416 and 4407, respectively. The RSI stands at 63, indicating the market is in a bullish zone. In the 1D timeframe, the price is rising along the EMA12 and the upper Bollinger Band; however, last week's candlestick pattern exhibits a bearish engulfing within a broader bullish trend. As long as the 4550 resistance level is not broken, a short-term correction toward the EMA50, around 4216, is likely. The RSI's peak behavior shows a downward trend but has not confirmed a top. Meanwhile, with an RSI reading of 64, the price remains in a bullish zone. It is recommended to go short before going long.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4480

Target Price: 4100

Stop Loss: 4600

Support: 4200, 4100, 3800

Resistance: 4530, 4550, 5000