A Fierce Battle for the Monthly Close Begins, with Heightened Volatility Expected

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

According to the World Gold Council, escalating global trade tensions spurred a significant influx of investment into gold ETFs during the first quarter, thereby driving a 19% increase in gold prices within a three-month period.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3302.51

Entry Price

3232.00

3350.00

4303.03 +3.64 +0.08%

705.1

Pips

Profit

3232.00

3231.88

Exit Price

3302.51

Entry Price

3350.00

Fundamentals

The World Gold Council (WGC) reported on Wednesday that global gold demand (including over-the-counter transactions) increased by 1% year-over-year to 1,206 metric tons in the first quarter of 2025, the highest quarterly level since 2016.

A significant rebound in gold ETF inflows drove total investment demand to 552 tons, a 170% increase year-over-year, the highest since Q1 2022. Demand for gold bars and coins remained robust at 325 tons, 15% above the five-year quarterly average. Global gold jewelry demand, a primary component of physical demand, decreased by 21% to 380.3 tons, the lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Central bank purchases, another key driver of gold demand, decreased by 21% to 243.7 tons in the first quarter.

Regarding key consumer markets, the Chinese market witnessed a surge in gold ETF demand, with inflows reaching a record high of approximately RMB 16.7 billion (equivalent to US$2.3 billion, or 23 metric tons) during the first quarter. This unprecedented influx, coupled with soaring gold prices, propelled the total assets under management (AUM) and total holdings of gold ETFs to new historical peaks, reaching RMB 101 billion (approximately US$13.9 billion) and 138 metric tons, respectively.

According to statistical data, the total consumer demand for gold in the Chinese market, encompassing gold bars, coins, and jewelry, amounted to 249 metric tons in Q1, reflecting a 15% year-over-year decrease, primarily due to subdued demand for gold jewelry.

A Fierce Battle for the Monthly Close Begins, with Heightened Volatility Expected_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices extended their decline for a second consecutive day, retesting the critical US$3,259 level before finding temporary support. Risk sentiment has waned once more, as indications mount that the U.S.-China trade dispute is de-escalating (a bearish signal for gold).

However, the broader outlook remains uncertain, with investors still wary of the lingering negative effects of global tariffs, which continue to fuel safe-haven demand. This dynamic suggests that gold prices may experience significant volatility in the long term.

The bearish catalysts for gold persist, with the 20-day SMA at US$3,259 serving as the primary support level. A breach of this level could see bears targeting the demand zone at US$3,247, with the 5-week SMA at US$3,232 as the subsequent support to monitor.

Given that today marks the end of the month, with a fierce battle for the monthly close underway, a strategy of range-bound trading around key support levels is recommended.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 3309

Target Price: 3232

Stop Loss: 3350

Valid Until: May 15, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3259, 3247, 3232

Resistance: 3314, 3330, 3353

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Reuther's transaction volume remains elevated, signaling substantial investor interest and potentially indicating bullish sentiment, with expectations of near-term rally.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1774.99

Entry Price

2276.00

1535.00

3064.60 -19.96 -0.65%

5010.1

Pips

Profit

1535.00

2278.89

Exit Price

1774.99

Entry Price

2276.00

Fundamentals

As of April 30, 2025, Ethereum's price stood at approximately US$1,806, with a market capitalization of roughly US$218 billion. The average daily gas fees were around US$0.32, and approximately 34.4 million ETH were staked within the network. Layer-2 scaling solutions held a cumulative value of US$31.12 billion, while monthly developer activity neared 8,000.

Since "The Merge" in 2022, Ethereum's energy consumption has decreased by 99.95%, with ongoing efforts to enhance scalability and performance through upgrades such as EIP-4844 and Pectra.

Ethereum currently maintains a leading position in market capitalization, technological advancement, and ecosystem development. However, it faces challenges related to upgrade timelines, regulatory policies, and competition from emerging blockchain networks. Over the coming months, the community must closely monitor the Pectra upgrade, subsequent sharding progress, and global regulatory developments to ensure the network's sustained evolution and maintain its market leadership.

Technical Analysis

Ethereum's price has sustained above the US$1,800 range since breaching the critical US$1,691 resistance level last Wednesday, with key momentum indicators and technical structures suggesting a potential for further upside.

In the 1D timeframe, Ethereum's price has experienced a significant rally from its recent low of US$1,539, decisively breaking above a key bearish trend line, with resistance at US$1,640. The price has also surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward swing from the US$2,100 high to the US$1,380 low, indicating that the path of least resistance is upward.

The next significant resistance level is near US$1,930, coinciding with the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the aforementioned downward swing. A daily close above US$1,930 could trigger a sustained rally, potentially pushing the price towards US$2,000. The next stop-loss for the bulls could be at US$2,120.

On the downside, Ethereum may find support around US$1,700. The next major support level is at US$1,650, with a break below potentially leading to a decline towards US$1,600. Further declines could see the price testing US$1,550.

Comparing the dynamics of the two major cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin's price has paused its ascent above US$95,000, while Ethereum exhibits stronger momentum relative to Bitcoin. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1778, 1750

Target Price: 2276

Stop Loss: 1535

Valid Until: May 15, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1743, 1723, 1693

Resistance: 1857, 1953, 2104

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound retreats from its three-year peak against the US Dollar as investors turn cautious ahead of key US economic releases, including Q1 GDP.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33700

Entry Price

1.33200

1.34150

1.33684 -0.00023 -0.02%

6.5

Pips

Profit

1.33200

1.33635

Exit Price

1.33700

Entry Price

1.34150

The British Pound lost momentum against the US Dollar on Wednesday, edging back to 1.3355 during the European trading session after notching a fresh three-year high at 1.3445 just a day earlier. The GBP/USD pair, once fueled by robust UK rate expectations and a softening US macro narrative, now finds itself in the throes of market repositioning, as traders weigh both geopolitical headwinds and monetary policy uncertainty on both sides of the Atlantic.

Much of the intraday pullback is driven by a modest recovery in the US Dollar ahead of a packed North American data calendar, headlined by the preliminary reading of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product. According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), growth is projected to have sharply decelerated to an annualized pace of 0.4%, well below the previous 2.4% print and reflective of early-stage economic softness attributed to trade disruptions and policy volatility out of Washington.

The marked slowdown is not a complete surprise. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump stunned markets with another round of sweeping tariffs targeting major trade partners. The rationale was clear: protect American industry, curb deficits, and leverage negotiation power. However, the broader implications are proving more destabilizing than stimulatory. Businesses have been reluctant to expand capacity or investment amid an atmosphere of “tweet-driven” policy unpredictability, stifling any potential for near-term economic momentum.

At the same time, a string of complementary US data releases including the Q1 Employment Cost Index, ADP employment figures for April, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index will provide further clarity on the health of the labor market and inflationary dynamics. Expectations point to steady wage growth at 0.9% in Q1, while private-sector job creation is seen dropping to 108,000 in April, down from 155,000 in March. Perhaps most critical is the core PCE figure, which is projected to rise just 2.6% in March, a slowdown from the 2.8% prior reading.

Such data could tip the scales toward a more accommodative Federal Reserve. While markets are near-unanimous in pricing no change for the Fed’s May meeting keeping the target range at 4.25%-4.50% futures now reflect a growing 65% probability of a rate cut in June, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. That shift reflects a broader reassessment of the Fed’s inflation target trajectory and the economic drag induced by fiscal and trade policy clashes.

Despite this dovish tilt, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains under persistent political pressure. During an event marking his 100th day in office, President Trump offered yet another thinly veiled critique of the Fed’s rate policy. While avoiding naming Powell directly, Trump’s remarks were unmistakable: “You’re not supposed to criticize the Fed... but I know much more than he does about interest rates, believe me.” Such statements underscore the ongoing tension between White House objectives and the Fed’s independent mandate, a friction that adds to the general climate of uncertainty.

In the UK, the Bank of England faces its own credibility test. The British Pound, though still elevated by recent standards, has come under pressure as traders increasingly price in a potential rate cut by the BoE in its May 8 policy meeting. Market sentiment shifted notably after BoE policymaker Megan Greene warned that the US-led trade war could have net disinflationary effects on the UK economy. Speaking at the Atlantic Council, Greene raised alarms about looming job market stress, exacerbated by an increase in employer contributions to national insurance up to 15% from 13.8% as of this month.

Her comments echoed concerns expressed by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey last week at the International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings. Bailey emphasized the risks posed by external trade shocks and signaled a need for policy flexibility, telling reporters, “We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth.” That sentiment has further emboldened market bets on a 25-basis-point BoE rate cut, especially in the absence of meaningful UK economic data this week.

Indeed, with the UK calendar offering little in terms of fundamental support, Sterling is largely at the mercy of external forces. Chief among them is the ongoing US-China trade confrontation. The Trump administration has challenged Beijing to return to the negotiating table, citing China’s disproportionate trade surplus. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them,” said top White House advisor Bessent in an interview with CNBC. Beijing, however, remains defiant, vowing to defend its “interests and dignity.”

Technical Analysis

From a structural perspective, GBP/USD has broken decisively below the prior range support near 1.3380, marking a potential bearish shift. The pair had repeatedly failed to sustain above the Point of Control (POC) at 1.3415, a zone of high-volume resistance now acting as a technical ceiling. With price now descending into a low-volume node, momentum could accelerate toward the next key support area at 1.3319.

This setup suggests the market is rejecting the higher value area, breaking into thinner liquidity, and potentially establishing a new bearish leg. A close below 1.3380 acts as confirmation for further downside, with stops ideally positioned above 1.3415 to manage risk. As always, volume and price behavior near the 1.3320 level will offer clues on whether bears can maintain control or if the market will find reason to reverse.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3370

STOP LOSS: 1.3415

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3320

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold (XAU/USD) fell over 1% Tuesday as investors responded to President Trump’s executive order to ease auto tariffs.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3265.00

Entry Price

3200.00

3320.00

4303.03 +3.64 +0.08%

410.3

Pips

Profit

3200.00

3223.97

Exit Price

3265.00

Entry Price

3320.00

Gold prices fell sharply on Tuesday, extending their losses for a second consecutive session as a combination of reduced trade tensions and profit-taking weighed heavily on the safe-haven asset. Spot gold (XAU/USD) declined over 1% in early European trade, slipping toward the $3,275 mark, as the market digested US President Donald Trump's executive order to ease tariffs on car parts—an unexpected gesture that signaled progress in US trade policy and removed one layer of uncertainty from global markets.

The news was first reported by Bloomberg, citing Trump’s intent to support US auto manufacturers while also fostering more amicable trade terms with key global partners. Although short on immediate economic impact, the move rekindled investor optimism that the White House is shifting towards a more cooperative trade stance. For bullion, this spelled downside pressure, as safe-haven flows began to unwind.

The timing of this policy change is crucial. Markets are bracing for a high-impact data release: the preliminary Q1 US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, set to be released at 12:30 GMT. Economists anticipate a modest annualized growth of just 0.4% a dramatic slowdown from the 2.4% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024. With the Federal Reserve’s May 7 policy meeting looming, any major deviation from these expectations could recalibrate interest rate forecasts and in turn, influence gold's direction.

Alongside GDP, March’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is also due. Core PCE is expected to cool to 0.1% from February’s 0.4%, while headline PCE is forecast to drop to 0%. A lower-than-expected print could validate the Fed's current dovish stance and possibly intensify rate-cut speculation, supporting gold. However, if inflation proves stickier than anticipated, gold could face additional selling pressure as interest rate expectations shift higher.

Adding to the drama, President Trump again lashed out at Fed Chair Jerome Powell, claiming he "knows more about interest rates" than the central banker himself, as reported by Bloomberg. The political friction may increase pressure on the Fed and inject further volatility into an already fragile gold market.

From a broader perspective, gold’s rally earlier this year was largely fueled by global risk aversion. According to the World Gold Council, investors poured 227 metric tons of gold into ETFs in Q1 marking the highest inflow since 2022. That surge, coupled with persistent geopolitical risks, pushed prices to all-time highs.

However, the tide may be turning. Indian gold jewelry demand a key pillar of physical gold consumption declined in March and is expected to drop by up to 11% for the fiscal year ending March 2026, according to Bloomberg. Weak physical demand in Asia, combined with receding investor anxiety, could create the conditions for a deeper correction.

Technical Analysis

On the charts, gold (XAU/USD) is trading within a narrowing descending triangle formation typically a bearish continuation pattern. Price has formed consistent lower highs, bounded by a trendline that continues to push the asset lower. The horizontal support zone between $3,265 and $3,270 is now acting as a critical line in the sand.

A decisive break and close below this region particularly if accompanied by elevated volume could trigger a sell-off toward the next support around $3,245, and potentially as low as $3,200 in extension. On the other hand, if the support holds and upcoming data reignites rate cut bets, a sharp reversal cannot be ruled out.

For now, the RSI has backed away from overbought territory, and the MACD is hinting at bearish crossover momentum. Unless the $3,270 support area holds firm, the path of least resistance appears to be to the downside.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 2265

STOP LOSS: 3320

TAKE PROFIT: 3200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

EURAUD has found solid support near the 1.7700 level, where several attempts to break lower have been rejected, suggesting this zone could serve as a launchpad for a new bullish leg.

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.77800

Entry Price

1.84200

1.75000

1.76558 +0.00121 +0.07%

280.0

Pips

Loss

1.75000

1.74958

Exit Price

1.77800

Entry Price

1.84200

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is set to release two key inflation indicators: the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q1 2025, and the monthly CPI for March, which tracks annual price pressures over the past 12 months. The quarterly report includes the RBA’s preferred inflation measure, the trimmed mean CPI, closely monitored by policymakers.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.10%, following a 25 basis point rate cut in February—the first since the tightening cycle began in 2022.

Markets anticipate that the ABS will report a 2.3% year-on-year increase in March’s monthly CPI, slightly lower than the 2.4% recorded in February. Meanwhile, the quarterly CPI is projected to rise by 0.8% QoQ and 2.2% YoY in Q1 2025. The RBA’s trimmed mean CPI is forecast to climb by 2.9% YoY—easing from the 3.2% growth seen in the previous quarter—and by 0.7% QoQ, which would mark a modest acceleration from the 0.5% increase in Q4.

Despite some persistent inflationary pressures, these figures remain within the RBA’s target range of 2% to 3%, reinforcing the possibility of further rate cuts in the near term should economic momentum continue to moderate.

On the growth side, Australia’s economy showed signs of resilience, with GDP expanding by 0.6% in the final quarter of 2025. This outpaced market expectations of 0.5% and marked the strongest quarterly performance since December 2022. The annual growth rate reached 1.3%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.2%. While this helped to ease recession fears, underlying vulnerabilities suggest that the path ahead remains uncertain.

In Europe, ECB policymakers are increasingly signaling the need for additional monetary easing. On Monday, Finnish central bank governor and ECB policymaker Olli Rehn expressed concerns about inflation in the eurozone remaining below the central bank’s 2% target amid escalating trade tensions linked to Trump-era tariffs. Rehn emphasized the importance of keeping an open mind about future policy actions, even suggesting that rate cuts below the neutral level should not be ruled out.

Separately, François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and ECB member, reiterated the need for more interest rate reductions, citing confidence that inflation will return to target and warning about the risks that protectionist trade policies pose to the euro area’s economic outlook.

Market participants will be closely watching the upcoming preliminary GDP figures for the eurozone, along with the April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), scheduled for release on Wednesday and Friday, respectively. These reports could provide fresh insights into the ECB's next moves. Potential Rebound in EUR/AUD as Downside Momentum Fades_1

Potential Rebound in EUR/AUD as Downside Momentum Fades_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/AUD has found solid support near the 1.7700 level, where several attempts to break lower have been rejected, suggesting this zone could serve as a launchpad for a new bullish leg. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped to 32 at the recent local low, placing it near oversold territory. While price has remained in consolidation, the RSI has continued to trend lower—an early sign that bearish momentum may be fading, potentially inviting buying interest from this area.

On the four-hour chart, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are positioned at 1.7930 and 1.7603, respectively. The 200-period moving average is now converging with the support zone, and a sustained move above it could be critical for validating a bullish breakout. However, if sellers manage to push price decisively below the 200-period MA, the next key support lies at 1.7366—a level that could attract renewed downside momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.7780

Target price: 1.8420

Stop loss: 1.7500

Validity: May 08, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Following a robust performance last week, the U.S. stock market exhibited a lack of directional conviction during Monday's trading session. Major indices fluctuated near the flatline throughout the day. By the close of trading on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was seen oscillating around the 40,000-point level, reflecting the market's complex sentiment regarding macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy, and trade tensions.

SELL US30

Close Time

CLOSED

40650.00

Entry Price

37213.00

42273.00

48547.00 -24.90 -0.05%

16230.0

Pips

Loss

37213.00

42273.97

Exit Price

40650.00

Entry Price

42273.00

Fundamentals

At the close of trading on Monday, major U.S. stock indices exhibited mixed performance. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 36.81 points, representing a 0.2% decrease, to close at 17,346. The S&P 500 edged up by 1.47 points, a marginal increase of less than one-tenth of a percent, reaching 5,526. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 133.49 points, or 0.3%, to finish at 40,246.

Overall trading activity on Wall Street was characterized by volatility, as investors appeared hesitant to make significant moves, anticipating key earnings releases and crucial economic data scheduled for publication in the coming days.

Four of the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants—Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft—are slated to report their quarterly earnings this week.

Later this week, the monthly employment report from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of consumer price inflation are also expected to be closely scrutinized.

Investors are closely monitoring developments in trade, with Treasury Secretary Besant stating on ABC News' "This Week" that he believes the government is close to inking agreements on "17 or 18 significant trade deals" in principle.

Bessent noted, "While finalizing trade agreements may take months, agreement in principle, coupled with the good faith and adherence to parameters by our trading partners, can prevent tariffs from reverting to their highest levels."

MARKET WATCH: The recent rebound in U.S. stocks has prompted institutional investors to tactically adopt a bullish stance on the U.S. market. Positive catalysts, including earnings from major tech companies and announcements regarding trade agreements, are expected to continue bolstering the market following the recent downturn.

However, this rebound momentum may wane within weeks, as the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs begin to weigh on the economy in the coming months.

Overall, there remains considerable room for a de-escalation trade in the context of trade tensions. This brief rebound does not signify that all market risks have been eliminated.

Tactical Buying Momentum Quickly Dissipated_1

Technical Analysis

In the 1D timeframe, it indicates that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has found secondary support near the 37,852 level, which, if sustained, would reinforce a bullish outlook.

Key resistance levels are concentrated at 40,500, 40,700, and 41,000. A breach of the latter could facilitate a further advance towards the 50-day SMA at 42,273 and the 200-day SMA at 43,300.

The Relative Strength Index is hovering above the neutral zone, with no immediate overbought signals. However, a sustained break above 50 would likely confirm the next phase of upward momentum. Despite these technical indicators, fundamental headwinds are anticipated to reverse the current positive sentiment in the near term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 40650

Target Price: 37213

Stop Loss: 42273

Valid Until: May 14, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 39600, 38913, 37852

Resistance: 40941, 41494, 42273

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

During the European trading session, gold prices continue to experience downward pressure, yet they remain above $3,300 amid mixed fundamentals. Market consensus suggests an expectation of increased volatility in the gold market moving forward.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3336.00

Entry Price

3167.00

3385.00

4303.03 +3.64 +0.08%

490.0

Pips

Loss

3167.00

3385.00

Exit Price

3336.00

Entry Price

3385.00

Fundamentals

The gold price reversed its downward trajectory on Monday, driven by a resurgence of buying activity, which suggests that the downside risk for gold is significantly constrained. Investors, particularly proprietary traders and macro funds, were notably under-allocated during the previous rally in gold prices; therefore, the selling pressure has been limited, a factor reflected in the price increase.

Analyzing the recent gold market dynamics, a divergence is evident in fund managers' positioning, reflecting the complexity of gold's pricing logic. This divergence is characterized by the retreat from "short-term risks" versus the steadfast commitment to "long-term narratives."

Meanwhile, a market consensus is emerging. With the anticipated implementation of tariffs, the risk premium associated with gold may experience a short-term decline. Furthermore, the profit-taking activities of investors who previously purchased gold stocks and gold funds at elevated prices are expected to introduce volatility into the market, potentially intensifying fluctuations in gold prices.

The fluctuations stem from several key factors. First, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Last year, the market largely anticipated the Fed's shift from interest rate hikes to a rate-cutting cycle. However, the pace of rate cuts this year may be subject to considerable divergence in market expectations.

Second, the trajectory of the global economy. This year, the economic and inflationary uncertainties could be amplified by Trump's various reform policies.

Third, geopolitical issues remain a concern. While there was little easing of geopolitical tensions last year, the potential for renewed instability this year introduces further uncertainty. These three factors are likely to intensify the volatility in gold prices.

Buy Low and Sell High amid Fluctuations_1

Technical Analysis

In the 4H timeframe, gold is currently establishing the fifth structure within the initial downward trend, targeting the US$3,260 level. A breach below this threshold appears poised to facilitate further downside movement.

Furthermore, a broad oscillation could prompt a retracement towards the US$3,365 level. Upon the completion of this retracement, a subsequent decline may commence, with a target of US$3,260. From a momentum perspective, the MACD indicator corroborates this trajectory, with its signal line positioned below the 0-axis and exhibiting no signs of a reversal.

On the downside, the vicinity of US$3,286 offers a buffer. A further decline would test the critical support at US$3,260. Ultimately, US$3,236 may potentially impede further decline towards the US$3,167 level in the short term.