Bearish Momentum Could Persist as USDCHF Faces Strong Resistance

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

This zone now acts as a key local resistance, which could trigger renewed downside pressure.

SELL USDCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

0.80100

Entry Price

0.79200

0.80450

0.79582 +0.00060 +0.08%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.79200

0.79514

Exit Price

0.80100

Entry Price

0.80450

A softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) reading may place further downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday showed that annual PPI inflation eased to 2.6% in August, down sharply from 3.3% in July and well below the market consensus of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, producer prices slipped 0.1%, contrasting with the 0.7% increase recorded in July (revised from 0.9%).

Looking ahead, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is projected to accelerate to 2.9% year-on-year from 2.7%, while the core CPI—which excludes food and energy—is expected to hold steady at 3.1%. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September and December, followed by three additional reductions in 2026.

The BLS also revised its annual benchmark payroll figures sharply lower, reporting a decline of -911K jobs as of March 2025, a steeper drop than the -682K projected by economists. This revision has reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to deliver a rate cut at next week’s meeting. Still, the decision could hinge on the upcoming inflation releases—if PPI or CPI readings surprise to the upside, the Fed may hesitate to act.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods as a way to increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the Financial Times. Washington further noted that the Trump administration is prepared to “mirror” any measures introduced by the EU, suggesting that the U.S. could raise tariffs on Chinese and Indian imports to the same extent.

In Switzerland, Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Martin Schlegel commented in a speech in Vezia that the central bank would “not hesitate” to cut rates again should conditions warrant, but stressed that the threshold for returning to negative rates remains very high, given the heavy burden such policies place on savers and pension funds. He also announced a new step toward transparency: beginning with the September 25 meeting, the SNB will publish policy discussion summaries four weeks after each decision. His remarks reinforced the view that the SNB is comfortable with the current strength of the Swiss franc and is not in a rush to ease aggressively, especially with Swiss inflation still subdued. Bearish Momentum Could Persist as USDCHF Faces Strong Resistance_1

Bearish Momentum Could Persist as USDCHF Faces Strong Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

USD/CHF recently extended its bearish momentum, testing support at 0.7922 before staging a modest rebound toward the 0.8000 area. This zone now acts as a key local resistance, which could trigger renewed downside pressure. Notably, the RSI has been rising faster than price, approaching levels where a bearish divergence could form. Should the RSI surpass its previous peak without a corresponding breakout in price, it would likely be interpreted as a sign that bullish momentum is fading and sellers may soon regain control.

In addition, the 100- and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart, currently located at 0.8023 and 0.8047, sit close to the descending trendline that has capped recent rallies. These levels will be crucial to watch—if USD/CHF climbs into the 0.8020–0.8050 zone, it could offer an attractive setup for renewed downside positions. Conversely, a clear break above the trendline would invalidate the bearish setup and open the door for additional gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8010

Target price: 0.7920

Stop loss: 0.8045

Validity: Sep 19, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Australian dollar strengthened near 0.6630 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as investor risk sentiment improved ahead of key U.S. inflation data and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts.

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.66280

Entry Price

0.67200

0.65400

0.66520 -0.00118 -0.18%

18.3

Pips

Profit

0.65400

0.66463

Exit Price

0.66280

Entry Price

0.67200

The Australian dollar extended gains against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, climbing toward 0.6630 in European trading hours, as improving risk appetite across global markets lent support to risk-sensitive currencies. The move came against a backdrop of mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve could restart its monetary easing campaign as early as next week, a shift that has weighed on the U.S. dollar’s near-term trajectory.

Equity markets reflected the improved sentiment, with S&P 500 futures posting solid gains in early European hours, signaling that investors are once again leaning into risk assets. Market participants appear increasingly convinced that the Fed’s tightening cycle has reached its conclusion and that the central bank will move toward rate cuts after a year of restrictive policy.

The CME FedWatch tool showed that traders are currently pricing in an 8.4% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut, which would lower the federal funds rate to the 3.75%–4.00% range. The larger probability, however, still lies with a standard quarter-point reduction, which would represent the Fed’s first rate cut since it paused earlier this year.

Despite the growing dovish tilt in expectations, the U.S. dollar remained relatively stable. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major peers, traded near Tuesday’s high around 97.80 at the time of writing. The index has held firm even after the release of a benchmark revision to U.S. labor market data, which showed that the economy created 911,000 fewer jobs over the past 12 months than previously reported. While the revisions underscore a cooling jobs market, the dollar’s stability suggests that traders are waiting for more definitive signals before adjusting positions more aggressively.

The focus now turns to incoming U.S. inflation data, which could sharpen expectations ahead of the Fed’s September policy meeting. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, due at 12:30 GMT, is expected to show headline inflation holding steady at 3.3% on an annualized basis. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, is projected to ease slightly to 3.5% from July’s 3.7%. A weaker-than-expected print could reinforce the case for rate cuts, providing further upward momentum for the AUD/USD pair.

The Australian dollar’s rally also reflects technical underpinnings. On the intraday chart, the pair continues to find support above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a level that has acted as a dynamic floor in recent sessions. The short-term trend remains decisively bullish, supported by the price’s adherence to a rising bias line. Meanwhile, momentum signals are also flashing positive: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), having eased from overbought territory, has begun to turn upward again, suggesting that buyers remain firmly in control.

From a broader perspective, the Australian dollar has benefited from an improving global risk environment, particularly as investors bet that slowing U.S. economic momentum will force the Fed into a more accommodative stance. However, headwinds remain, with lingering concerns about China’s economic recovery and commodity demand likely to limit the Aussie’s upside over the medium term.

Technical Analaysis

For now, the path of least resistance appears tilted higher, with the 0.6650–0.6680 zone emerging as the next resistance band to watch. A break above this region could open the door toward 0.6720. On the downside, initial support lies near 0.6600, followed by the psychological 0.6570 level, where a breakdown could disrupt the current bullish narrative.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6628

STOP LOSS: 0.6540

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6720

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The euro extended gains against the dollar after soft US PPI data reinforced Fed rate cut bets. EUR/USD trades around 1.1710, with technicals pointing higher toward 1.1730.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17250

Entry Price

1.18000

1.16700

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

55.0

Pips

Loss

1.16700

1.16698

Exit Price

1.17250

Entry Price

1.18000

The euro is holding modest gains against the US dollar on Wednesday, with EUR/USD hovering near six-week highs as investors trimmed dollar exposure after another round of softer US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could deliver an interest rate cut as soon as next week.

At the time of writing, the common currency is trading around 1.1710, extending its climb after briefly touching its strongest level since late July in the previous session. The dollar, by contrast, remains under pressure, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) drifting lower toward 97.70, reflecting weakening momentum across major pairs.

The latest reading of the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August offered fresh evidence that inflationary pressures in the United States are losing steam. Headline PPI unexpectedly fell 0.1% month-on-month, compared with expectations for a 0.3% increase. Adding to the dovish narrative, July’s figure was revised downward to 0.7% from 0.9% previously reported.

On a yearly basis, wholesale inflation slowed sharply to 2.6%, undershooting the forecast of 3.3%. Core PPI, which strips out food and energy components, also showed weakness, slipping 0.1% MoM, with the annual pace cooling to 2.8% from 3.7%.

The softer trajectory bolsters the argument that the Fed is nearing the end of its inflation fight and may need to pivot toward easing monetary conditions to cushion growth. Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis point cut next week, though most analysts maintain that the data does not warrant a larger 50-bps move.

“The PPI miss reinforces the Fed’s case to cut next week, but the numbers aren’t disastrous enough to warrant panic,” one strategist in New York noted. “What’s critical now is whether tomorrow’s CPI confirms that disinflation is entrenched.”

The inflation debate will gain further clarity on Thursday, when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is published. This is the final major data release before the Fed’s highly anticipated September meeting. A cooler print could lock in expectations for a cut, while an upside surprise may complicate the picture and reintroduce uncertainty about the timing of policy easing.

In parallel, the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver its latest monetary policy decision. Having cut rates aggressively earlier in the year to bring the deposit rate down to 2.0%, policymakers are widely expected to keep rates unchanged. With eurozone inflation stabilizing near the 2% target and wage growth showing signs of moderation, the ECB is likely to signal that its easing cycle is nearing completion.

“The ECB doesn’t have much room to maneuver now,” said a Frankfurt-based economist. “They’ve front-loaded cuts, inflation is near target, and growth risks remain. They will probably emphasize patience and data dependency going forward.”

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, momentum indicators are aligning in favor of further euro strength. The Super Trend indicator has flipped into a clear long signal, while Pivot Point HL is supporting a broadly bullish structure on the charts.

Immediate resistance is eyed at 1.1730, which traders see as the near-term target. A sustained break above this level could open the door toward 1.1780–1.1800, marking a potential continuation of the current rally. On the downside, support lies near 1.1690, the recommended stop-loss level for short-term traders.

The broader tone remains constructive as long as EUR/USD holds above this threshold. However, market direction in the coming days will hinge on the dual catalysts of the US CPI and ECB outcome. Any hawkish twist from the ECB or an upside CPI surprise could cap the euro’s advance, while dovish signals would strengthen the bullish case further.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1725

STOP LOSS: 1.1670

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold steadied above $3,640 on Wednesday, supported by weaker U.S. inflation data, Fed rate-cut expectations, and safe-haven demand, though traders remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s CPI report.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3644.95

Entry Price

3750.00

3618.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

269.5

Pips

Loss

3618.00

3617.83

Exit Price

3644.95

Entry Price

3750.00

Gold (XAU/USD) steadied on Wednesday, clinging to gains after a volatile session that saw the metal briefly touch an all-time high of $3,675 before retreating. The precious metal is currently trading near $3,645, up 0.55% on the day, as investors weigh softer U.S. inflation data against lingering uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. While the short-term bias remains positive, the market is showing signs of hesitation ahead of Thursday’s critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

The latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) figures were the catalyst behind the move. Data for August came in significantly weaker than expected, amplifying speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates at its policy meeting next week. Headline PPI unexpectedly fell by 0.1% month-on-month, compared to forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Adding to the dovish tone, July’s reading was revised down to 0.7% from 0.9%. On an annual basis, headline inflation slowed to 2.6%, well below the market consensus of 3.3%.

Core PPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy components, also declined by 0.1% versus expectations for a 0.3% gain. The year-over-year core measure slipped sharply to 2.8%, down from 3.7%. Such figures suggest inflationary pressures in the supply pipeline are fading more quickly than policymakers anticipated, reinforcing the case for a rate cut.

Still, the numbers offered little justification for an aggressive move. Markets remain convinced the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting, but the odds of a deeper 50 basis point reduction remain muted. Investors will be closely watching Thursday’s CPI data, which will serve as the final checkpoint before the Fed decision. Any downside surprise could strengthen calls for faster easing into year-end, while an upside shock would likely temper market enthusiasm.

Beyond the inflation narrative, gold continues to draw resilience from a broader mix of underlying factors. A weaker U.S. dollar, which has slipped across the board in recent sessions, has made precious metals more affordable for overseas buyers. Central bank purchases of gold remain robust, particularly from emerging markets looking to diversify away from the dollar amid geopolitical and trade-related uncertainties.

Meanwhile, escalating trade tensions tied to new U.S. tariff policies, combined with ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, have reignited safe-haven demand. Political pressure on the Fed’s independence has also become an undercurrent in markets, with investors wary that policy could become increasingly subject to external influence. These themes collectively anchor gold near record highs and reinforce its appeal as a hedge against volatility.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the outlook remains constructive. After Tuesday’s sharp reversal, the metal regained footing as bullish momentum signals resurfaced. Positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) after dipping into oversold territory suggests renewed upward potential. Gold continues to trade within the boundaries of its dominant short-term bullish trend, supported by a rising trendline that has acted as a floor for recent pullbacks.

Should momentum hold, a sustained break above $3,675 could open the door for a run toward the $3,700 psychological level, with further upside potential toward $3,750 if bullish catalysts align. On the downside, initial support lies around $3,600, followed by stronger demand near $3,565. A break below these levels could trigger a deeper retracement, though sentiment appears skewed toward buyers for now.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3645

STOP LOSS: 3618

TAKE PROFIT: 3750

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin's price began the week positively, experiencing a modest increase and extending its three-day rally; it briefly surpassed US$113,000 on Tuesday. Macroeconomic data released last week reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, contributing to the generally optimistic sentiment in global stock and cryptocurrency markets.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

113216.8

Entry Price

102006.0

118000.0

90280.8 +180.1 +0.20%

854.4

Pips

Profit

102006.0

112362.4

Exit Price

113216.8

Entry Price

118000.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin prices started the week on a positive note, edging higher to extend a three-day winning streak; it briefly surpassed US$113,000 on Tuesday. However, the cryptocurrency market cap rose just 2.5% over the past seven days to reach US$3.85 trillion, signaling a very modest and unstable recovery lacking both buyer enthusiasm and significant trading volume.

Concurrently, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 44 on Sunday, entering the fear zone, but rebounded to a neutral 51 during the first two trading days of the week, reflecting a cautious stance among investors.

The cryptocurrency market capitalization remains below its 50-day SMA, signaling prevailing bearish sentiment. This is a concerning indicator, reflecting potential risk preference within the financial markets.

Despite the stock market's gains, fueled by dovish Federal Reserve expectations, the economic weakness continues to exert downward pressure on the underlying drivers of price.

Bitcoin is currently trading around US$112,000, having breached this level daily over the past week. The cryptocurrency has exhibited an upward trend from local lows since early September, appreciating approximately 3.6% during this period, thereby surpassing the losses incurred on August 28.

Panic Sentiment Eased, and the Market Is Now Experiencing a Downturn_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price has broken down from an ascending channel in the 60-minute timeframe. However, the Relative Strength Index has room to move up before reaching oversold territory.

Consequently, bears will likely attempt to extend the current retracement to US$109,222 or lower to US$107,240. Conversely, bulls will likely aim to take profit around US$113,404 or higher at US$115,611.

The 1D chart indicates that Bitcoin is trading within a descending channel. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index has recently rebounded, averting an oversold condition.

Consequently, bulls will aim to extend the current rally towards US$117,469 or higher, up to US$124,508. Conversely, bears are targeting profit-taking around US$104,169 or lower, down to US$98,280.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 113000

Target Price: 102006

Stop Loss: 118000

Valid Until: September 25, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 110,618, 109,353, 107,302

Resistance: 113,498, 114,829, 117,447

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

If the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note falls below 4%, the gold price rally could extend to a peak of US$3,850.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3657.84

Entry Price

3850.00

3575.00

4299.39 +20.10 +0.47%

766.8

Pips

Profit

3575.00

3734.52

Exit Price

3657.84

Entry Price

3850.00

Fundamentals

On Monday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued its recent decline, reaching a five-month low. Concurrently, gold prices hit a new all-time high, reflecting robust demand for safe-haven assets and market confidence that inflation data to be released this week may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing policy.

The market is closely monitoring the August PPI data, due Wednesday, and the CPI data, due Thursday, as these figures are crucial for shaping expectations ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Any signs of cooling inflation could weaken the resistance of Federal Reserve hawks to further interest rate cuts. While the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September remains low, the Federal Reserve's statement and dot plot may signal further easing of interest rates.

The potential for this scenario is exerting persistent pressure on U.S. Treasury yields. The critical focus is the 4% threshold for the 10-year yield. A definitive breach of this psychological level could trigger a more substantial decline.

Spot gold prices reached a new high on Tuesday. Tariff-driven gains have been modest thus far. However, a significant market correction is highly probable if inflation data indicates a substantial price surge. Conversely, unexpectedly weak data could lead to increased market bets on a 50-basis-point rate cut, further bolstering gold prices.

Gold Prices May Target a Peak of US$3,850 with U.S. Treasury Yields Approaching 4%_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield has breached the 100% retracement level of 4.629 (from 4.493 to 4.205), and there are currently no signs of a bottom forming. The yield curve is also approaching the lower bound of its recent downward channel. A sustained break below this level would likely accelerate the decline towards the 138.2% retracement at 3.907, with a potential target at the support level of 3.886. The outlook remains bearish as long as the 4.188 support level acts as resistance.

Regarding gold's momentum, the 4-hour MACD indicator suggests that the price is in an upward re-acceleration phase. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that gold is overbought, and an initial upward attempt may be limited. However, a break below the US$3,579 support level would signal a temporary top.

Meanwhile, if the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 4% in the coming days, gold's rally could extend further, potentially reaching the 323.6% Fibonacci extension at US$3,765 before peaking, with further gains testing the AB=CD pattern target of US$3,850. Currently, both U.S. Treasuries and gold appear unstoppable, and inflation data will determine the next leg of the rally.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3638

Target Price: 3850

Stop Loss: 3575

Valid Until: September 25, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 3639, 3619, 3600

Resistance: 3660, 3676, 3706

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The European Central Bank (ECB) will convene its monetary-policy meeting on Thursday, 11 September. Markets widely expect the ECB—broadly inclined to keep the current monetary stance intact while external risks persist or the euro-area economy shows underlying resilience—to leave interest rates unchanged.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.17000

Entry Price

1.14000

1.18300

1.17394 +0.00011 +0.01%

130.0

Pips

Loss

1.14000

1.18300

Exit Price

1.17000

Entry Price

1.18300

Fundamentals

Thursday, 11 September-The ECB will convene its monetary-policy meeting. Markets widely expect the Governing Council to keep the policy stance on hold, preferring to await the ebbing of external risks or clearer evidence of euro-area resilience. The euro-zone headline inflation rate remains at 2%. Several member states confront rising political and fiscal strains, with debt ratios edging higher. Investors will scrutinise President Christine Lagarde's post-meeting remarks for any response to the recent spike in long-dated sovereign yields across core euro-area markets. Analysts at Monex Europe wrote that an ECB signal that the easing cycle is complete could lift the euro. "We expect the deposit rate to stay at 2%, as President Lagarde is likely to declare victory over inflation and formally close this easing cycle—echoing her 1 September comments," .Analysts add that such guidance would push EURUSD higher, especially if the Fed resumes cuts at its 17 September meeting.

PARIS —French President Emmanuel Macron is grappling with a governing crisis triggered by a fragmented National Assembly. With former Prime Minister François Baroin out of office, the choice of his successor has become a market-moving variable, immediately reshaping expectations for the euro area's fiscal trajectory.

The power vacuum stems from structural contradictions exposed by the last legislative vote: Macron's camp lacks an outright majority, forcing the incoming premier to steer the 2026 budget through a chamber split into three mutually hostile blocs. The draft budget—Paris's roadmap for consolidation—will serve as a litmus test for euro-zone stability rather than a mere fiscal blueprint.

Proximity to the 2027 presidential election erodes any incentive for opposition forces to cooperate, magnifying the political coordination problem. Failure by the next government to forge a rapid consensus could allow France's deficit overhang to fester, weighing on the single currency.

US nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months through March were revised down by 911,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' preliminary benchmark update released Tuesday showed, shaving average monthly gains by roughly 76,000. Measured against a total workforce of 171 million, the revision equates to about 0.6%—the largest markdown since 2000. Median market expectations had centred on a cut of 682,000. Ahead of the release, several economists had flagged a potential downward adjustment of close to 800,000. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likewise warned of a possible revision of up to 800,000. The final figure nonetheless exceeded even the more pessimistic forecasts. The political and economic ramifications could be significant. Additional evidence of labour-market softening will bolster former president Trump's case for Fed rate cuts. The annual NFP revision not only deepens concerns over the economy's health but also casts doubt on the reliability of establishment survey data, weighing on the US Dollar Index.

Technical Analysis

On the EURUSD daily chart, the MACD bullish histogram is steadily shrinking and printing lower highs. RSI reads 53. The price has failed to record a new high and is forming a double-top, generating a top divergence signal that favors sideways-to-lower action in the near term. Price is currently supported by the daily Bollinger mid-band and the EMA12. A sustained hold would keep the uptrend intact, while a break opens a deeper pullback toward the lower Bollinger band (1.1600) and the EMA200 near 1.1270.

From the weekly perspective, price is grinding higher along the EMA12, albeit at a diminishing slope. RSI is at 63 and its peaks are also descending. MACD has flashed a high-level bearish crossover, with the fast and slow lines retracing toward the zero axis. The wide gap indicates the correction is unfinished. Should price lose the EMA12, the next downside targets are the weekly Bollinger mid-band at 1.1460 and the EMA50 at 1.1230.

Therefore, traders are recommended to sell rallies in the short term.