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Latest Views
Nikkei 225 Forecast: Start of New Medium-Term Bullish Trend Amid Rising JGB Yields
Nikkei 225 rallies 34% from April lows to June highs, driven partly by post-tariff optimism despite Japan being targeted by US trade measures.Nikkei 225 outperforms globally, gaining 28% since 7 April, trailing only South Korea’s KOSPI and ahead of the Hang Seng and S&P 500.Rising 30-year JGB yields (+45 bps) spark a -4.2% Nikkei 225 pullback due to fiscal concerns ahead of Japan’s 20 July election. Strong economic & earnings data: Citigroup Surprise Index and Earnings Revisions Index support bullish fundamentals for Japanese stocks.Bullish technical breakout from flag pattern signals potential for Nikkei 225 to challenge resistance at 40,620 and 42,500/890.
USD Strength Reasserted Amid Fed Drama and Global Divergences
Markets were jolted midweek by a sudden political shock: reports emerged that President Trump considered firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Although the White House quickly walked back on this narrative, the damage was already done yield curves steepened, equities dipped, and the dollar took a sharp hit before partially recovering. This episode serves as a stark reminder that political interference in monetary policy remains a real risk to the Fed's independence, and by extension, to USD stability.
Few Signs of Foreign Exporters Absorbing U.S. Tariff Hikes
If foreign exporters were absorbing the cost of tariffs, U.S. import prices would be declining in proportion to the rise in the tariff rate. Yet, nonfuel import prices, which exclude the cost of tariffs, rose 1.2% year-over-year in June. The dollar's slide has likely incentivized foreign suppliers to bump up or hold the line on their invoice prices. With little relief on import prices, domestic firms are stomaching the cost of higher tariffs and starting to pass it on to consumers. We suspect import price growth has room to weaken in the coming months amid weaker demand but do not look for a plunge
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Pares Gains While USD/JPY Rises
The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1720 zone.There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1660 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.USD/JPY climbed higher above the 147.50 and 148.40 levels.There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 148.40 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
中美贸易战
中美贸易战是当今国际经济格局中的重要变量,始于2018年美方对中国商品加征关税,历经数轮磋商与冲突,至今仍未彻底解决。本专栏将持续追踪中美贸易战动态,解读政策变化,评估其对全球市场、供应链和投资格局的深远影响,为读者提供具有深度与前瞻性的观察视角。
印巴冲突
在传统认知中,“印巴冲突”常指印度与巴基斯坦在克什米尔等问题上的长期对峙。但当今局势正在悄然变化——印度与以色列关系迅速升温,公开支持以方在中东的军事行动,而巴勒斯坦问题再次成为全球舆论焦点。本专栏将以“印巴”这一词汇的延展含义为线索,剖析印度对巴勒斯坦问题的外交立场、其在伊斯兰世界中日益复杂的角色,以及这对全球南方阵营、宗教认同与国际秩序所带来的深远影响。此处的“冲突”,已不仅限于边界争端,更关乎价值观与战略选择的对撞。
中东局势
6月13日,伊以冲突剧烈升级,地区安全与全球政治面临新挑战。
每日要闻
一刻钟快速知晓市场动态,一刻钟快速捕捉市场焦点。
Latest Update
Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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Latest Views
Nikkei 225 Forecast: Start of New Medium-Term Bullish Trend Amid Rising JGB Yields
Nikkei 225 rallies 34% from April lows to June highs, driven partly by post-tariff optimism despite Japan being targeted by US trade measures.Nikkei 225 outperforms globally, gaining 28% since 7 April, trailing only South Korea’s KOSPI and ahead of the Hang Seng and S&P 500.Rising 30-year JGB yields (+45 bps) spark a -4.2% Nikkei 225 pullback due to fiscal concerns ahead of Japan’s 20 July election. Strong economic & earnings data: Citigroup Surprise Index and Earnings Revisions Index support bullish fundamentals for Japanese stocks.Bullish technical breakout from flag pattern signals potential for Nikkei 225 to challenge resistance at 40,620 and 42,500/890.
USD Strength Reasserted Amid Fed Drama and Global Divergences
Markets were jolted midweek by a sudden political shock: reports emerged that President Trump considered firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Although the White House quickly walked back on this narrative, the damage was already done yield curves steepened, equities dipped, and the dollar took a sharp hit before partially recovering. This episode serves as a stark reminder that political interference in monetary policy remains a real risk to the Fed's independence, and by extension, to USD stability.
Few Signs of Foreign Exporters Absorbing U.S. Tariff Hikes
If foreign exporters were absorbing the cost of tariffs, U.S. import prices would be declining in proportion to the rise in the tariff rate. Yet, nonfuel import prices, which exclude the cost of tariffs, rose 1.2% year-over-year in June. The dollar's slide has likely incentivized foreign suppliers to bump up or hold the line on their invoice prices. With little relief on import prices, domestic firms are stomaching the cost of higher tariffs and starting to pass it on to consumers. We suspect import price growth has room to weaken in the coming months amid weaker demand but do not look for a plunge
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Pares Gains While USD/JPY Rises
The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1720 zone.There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1660 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.USD/JPY climbed higher above the 147.50 and 148.40 levels.There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 148.40 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
中美贸易战
中美贸易战是当今国际经济格局中的重要变量,始于2018年美方对中国商品加征关税,历经数轮磋商与冲突,至今仍未彻底解决。本专栏将持续追踪中美贸易战动态,解读政策变化,评估其对全球市场、供应链和投资格局的深远影响,为读者提供具有深度与前瞻性的观察视角。
印巴冲突
在传统认知中,“印巴冲突”常指印度与巴基斯坦在克什米尔等问题上的长期对峙。但当今局势正在悄然变化——印度与以色列关系迅速升温,公开支持以方在中东的军事行动,而巴勒斯坦问题再次成为全球舆论焦点。本专栏将以“印巴”这一词汇的延展含义为线索,剖析印度对巴勒斯坦问题的外交立场、其在伊斯兰世界中日益复杂的角色,以及这对全球南方阵营、宗教认同与国际秩序所带来的深远影响。此处的“冲突”,已不仅限于边界争端,更关乎价值观与战略选择的对撞。
中东局势
6月13日,伊以冲突剧烈升级,地区安全与全球政治面临新挑战。
每日要闻
一刻钟快速知晓市场动态,一刻钟快速捕捉市场焦点。
Latest Update
Risk Warning on Trading HK Stocks
Despite Hong Kong's robust legal and regulatory framework, its stock market still faces unique risks and challenges, such as currency fluctuations due to the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the US dollar and the impact of mainland China's policy changes and economic conditions on Hong Kong stocks.
HK Stock Trading Fees and Taxation
Trading costs in the Hong Kong stock market include transaction fees, stamp duty, settlement charges, and currency conversion fees for foreign investors. Additionally, taxes may apply based on local regulations.
HK Non-Essential Consumer Goods Industry
The Hong Kong stock market encompasses non-essential consumption sectors like automotive, education, tourism, catering, and apparel. Of the 643 listed companies, 35% are mainland Chinese, making up 65% of the total market capitalization. Thus, it's heavily influenced by the Chinese economy.
HK Real Estate Industry
In recent years, the real estate and construction sector's share in the Hong Kong stock index has notably decreased. Nevertheless, as of 2022, it retains around 10% market share, covering real estate development, construction engineering, investment, and property management.
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