Zelensky Reaffirms Stance: No Territorial Talks Unless Directly with Putin

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Summary:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he will only engage in territorial negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin directly, rejecting any peace deal proposals that involve conceding Ukrainian territory or neutrality....

Kyiv’s Firm Line on Sovereignty

Amid prolonged conflict and stagnating negotiations, President Zelensky has made a decisive declaration: any discussions over Ukraine’s territorial integrity must happen directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking to Hungary’s Valasz Online, Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine’s delegation in talks such as those held in Istanbul was never authorized to negotiate issues of sovereignty. Their mandate was strictly limited to humanitarian matters and ceasefires.

By framing territorial matters as a constitutional issue, Zelensky has drawn a clear red line — reinforcing that only the head of state holds the legitimate authority to negotiate over such fundamental national concerns. This move effectively sidelines lower-level talks and signals to international observers that only a top-level breakthrough can unlock real progress.

Russia’s Demands and Ukraine’s Refusal

Russia’s latest peace roadmap reportedly includes demands that Ukraine recognize the loss of five annexed regions, withdraw military forces, and adopt a neutral, demilitarized stance. Zelensky flatly rejected this, labeling it a “ultimatum,” and instead proposed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire as a prerequisite for any meaningful discussions.

Moscow, meanwhile, has continued aggressive military operations in northeastern and central Ukraine, particularly in Sumy and Dnipropetrovsk, maintaining pressure both militarily and diplomatically.

Strategic Signaling to Domestic and International Audiences

Zelensky’s refusal to negotiate territorial concessions — except with Putin himself — serves a dual purpose. Domestically, it reinforces his leadership's credibility among Ukrainian troops and citizens, who have endured years of war and displacement. Internationally, it reasserts Ukraine’s stance that sovereignty is non-negotiable and that any durable peace must be anchored in justice, not imposed outcomes.

His call for a “substantial international guarantee” before discussing final terms further reveals Ukraine’s wariness of bilateral deals without multilateral enforcement mechanisms. This approach reflects Kyiv’s broader diplomatic strategy of aligning closely with Western allies and securing long-term security assurances.

Stalemate Remains Without Presidential Breakthrough

While Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has hinted at the possibility of a Zelensky-Putin meeting if “concrete progress” is made, current military and diplomatic conditions offer little hope of such progress. Even with continued mediation by Turkey and the U.S., the absence of willingness from either side to budge on core issues ensures that talks remain at a standstill.

Zelensky’s latest remarks solidify Ukraine’s red lines: no backroom territorial deals, no concessions under pressure, and no negotiations with proxies. While Moscow maintains a hybrid strategy of military pressure and diplomatic coercion, Ukraine’s counter-strategy is to resist immediate settlement in favor of a longer-term resolution on its own terms. Without a major shift or direct top-level diplomacy, the deadlock is likely to persist.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Commodity

Safe-Haven Demand Drives Gold to New Highs

Gold surged for the second consecutive day, rising as much as 0.6% to around $3,373 an ounce—extending a 1% gain from the previous session. Investors flocked to the metal amid escalating risks in the Middle East and heightened anxiety about U.S. trade measures, reinforcing gold’s traditional role as a hedge in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

The immediate catalyst was President Trump's announcement that the U.S. would send formal tariff notifications to its trading partners within one to two weeks, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties. Although Trump confirmed a completed trade framework with China, tariffs between the world’s two largest economies will remain in place, keeping pressure on global trade stability.

Middle East Flashpoints Bolster Risk Aversion

Gold's momentum was further strengthened by geopolitical developments. The U.S. ordered partial embassy evacuations in Baghdad and authorized military families to leave the region amid fears of a potential confrontation with Iran. This came after Iran threatened to strike U.S. military installations should nuclear negotiations fail—a scenario that would directly threaten oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz and unsettle broader financial markets.

Such conditions historically spark elevated demand for gold, particularly as investors shift capital away from equities and other risk-sensitive assets toward safe-haven instruments.

Dollar Weakness and Central Bank Buying Add Tailwinds

The metal also benefited from a declining dollar, which fell 0.4% on Wednesday, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained flat early Thursday, suggesting continued weakness in the greenback.

Gold has gained 28% year-to-date, supported not only by market risk aversion but also by robust central bank demand. In the face of rising geopolitical fragmentation and mounting concerns over fiat currency credibility, central banks—especially in emerging markets—have been steadily increasing their gold reserves as a diversification strategy.

Broader Precious Metals Complex Follows Uptrend

Other precious metals joined the rally: silver, platinum, and palladium all saw gains. This broad-based movement reflects not only inflation hedging and geopolitical risk but also renewed interest in industrial metals amid hopes for improved global trade flows, particularly in light of the recent U.S.-China trade détente.

Looking ahead, the trajectory of gold will likely be shaped by how U.S. trade policies evolve, the stability of the Middle East, and any monetary policy responses from the Federal Reserve. With uncertainty dominating the global narrative—from Tehran to Beijing to Washington—the risk premium on gold is expected to remain elevated in the near term.

If inflation expectations rise due to persistent tariffs while geopolitical tensions intensify, gold could challenge new all-time highs. Conversely, any signs of de-escalation or coordinated diplomatic breakthroughs may cap further upside, though structural central bank support will likely continue to underpin demand.

Source: Bloomberg

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Economic

Commodity

Geopolitical Risks Push Oil to Two-Month Highs

On Thursday, Brent crude rose to $69.92 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed to $68.37, extending a rally that saw both benchmarks jump over 4% the previous day. The gains followed President Trump’s announcement that U.S. personnel were being repositioned from parts of the Middle East amid heightened security threats, sparking renewed concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows from the region.

This move comes after warnings from Iran’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, who stated that Tehran would target U.S. bases in the region if nuclear talks collapse. Given Iran's strategic position in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital chokepoint for global oil shipments—the risk of military escalation has immediate consequences for market volatility and global energy security.

U.S. Strategic Pullback and Embassy Evacuation Deepen Market Fears

The partial evacuation of the U.S. embassy in Iraq and allowances for military families to leave Bahrain and other key areas underscores Washington’s serious assessment of escalating threats. Iraq, as OPEC’s second-largest oil producer, represents a critical node in the global supply chain. Any conflict in this zone could reduce production or impair export infrastructure, driving up prices amid supply fears.

Supply-Side Fundamentals Add Momentum

The bullish momentum was further supported by a sharper-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories. According to the Energy Information Administration, stockpiles fell by 3.6 million barrels last week to 432.4 million barrels, compared to the 2 million barrel draw forecasted by analysts. This tighter supply is viewed by the market as evidence of healthy underlying demand or restricted supply—both of which typically support higher prices.

Simultaneously, optimism over a preliminary U.S.-China trade framework also helped buoy prices. A stronger trade environment between the world’s two largest economies could enhance energy consumption, particularly for oil-intensive sectors like transportation and manufacturing. The hope is that increased demand from both nations will stabilize and possibly increase global energy flows.

Volatility Likely to Persist

In the short term, oil prices are expected to remain elevated as geopolitical risk premiums dominate market psychology. If the U.S.-Iran standoff intensifies or if Iranian threats materialize, prices could spike further. Conversely, any diplomatic de-escalation or breakthroughs in nuclear talks could ease tension-driven volatility.

Furthermore, traders will closely monitor next week's Federal Reserve decision and any new sanctions or retaliatory actions in the Middle East. With supply concerns and global demand both in flux, oil markets are poised for continued volatility and directional shifts driven by both headlines and fundamentals.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Trade Talks Offer Limited Relief as Tariff Fears Persist

While President Trump declared a “great deal” with China that includes easing restrictions on rare-earth exports and student visas, markets reacted with notable restraint. The framework agreement has not rolled back tariffs significantly, and the lack of concrete follow-up details has left investors wary. Trump’s comment that formal trade letters would soon be issued to multiple countries only added to global uncertainty, casting doubt on near-term economic stability.

Economist Shane Oliver of AMP Capital noted that the agreement essentially maintains the current tariff regime, meaning trade friction remains unresolved. This sentiment is echoed in market behavior: MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan slipped 0.3%, while the Nikkei dropped 0.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.74%, retracing gains from earlier in the week, and China’s blue-chip CSI 300 declined 0.37%.

Currency Markets Signal Erosion of Confidence in Dollar

The dollar’s position weakened notably. The dollar index fell to its lowest since late April, now down 9% for the year. The euro rose to a seven-week high of $1.1512, while the yen firmed to 144.03 per dollar. This shift reflects not only declining confidence in U.S. fiscal and trade policy but also a broader move toward diversification and de-dollarisation, as noted in recent ECB commentary.

Wednesday’s inflation data showed U.S. consumer prices rose 2.4% year-on-year in May, slightly below expectations. Gasoline prices fell, offsetting rent increases. This benign figure has raised hopes for eventual Fed rate cuts, with markets now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis-point cut by September. However, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady in next week’s policy meeting, preferring a “wait and see” approach given the potential inflationary effects of tariffs.

Geopolitical Risk Intensifies Flight to Safety

Beyond trade, geopolitical instability is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets. Oil prices remain pinned near two-month highs at just under $70 a barrel, fueled by concerns of a potential conflict between Iran and the U.S. over failed nuclear negotiations. Iran’s threats to U.S. bases in the region have elevated tensions and raised the risk of supply disruptions.

Gold has also benefited from risk aversion, climbing 0.5% to $3,370.29. The metal’s rally underscores the market’s fragile sentiment amid a convergence of inflation risks, geopolitical threats, and policy uncertainty.

As investors digest the limited trade deal and brace for possible tariff fallout, attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and global risk factors. If inflation pressures build as anticipated, central banks may face difficult trade-offs between supporting growth and containing prices. Meanwhile, the dollar’s weakening trend and the rise in safe-haven demand suggest that investor confidence is far from fully restored. Markets remain highly sensitive to developments in Washington, Beijing, and the Middle East in the weeks ahead.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Stocks

Muted Optimism as Trade Talks Offer Little Spark

Asian equities started Thursday on uneven footing, reflecting investor hesitation to celebrate the latest China-U.S. trade deal. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell by 0.7%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.7% and Shanghai's Composite slipped 0.1%. These declines suggest markets are unconvinced by the substance of the new agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi. The deal, which includes commitments on rare-earth supplies and student access, appears to lack the depth needed to shift broader economic expectations, particularly around tariffs.

Meanwhile, the South Korean Kospi rose 0.4%, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 0.1%, hinting that regional markets with less direct exposure to U.S.-China tensions are slightly more upbeat.

Wall Street Slips as Inflation Eases But Tech Stumbles

In the U.S., Wall Street’s rally paused. The S&P 500 declined by 0.3%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%, and the Dow was virtually flat. Apple led tech losses with a 1.9% drop, following a lukewarm reception to its recent software announcements. The market’s pullback came despite inflation data showing only a modest increase in May — 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below expectations.

Although the figures suggest that Trump’s tariff policies haven’t immediately stoked inflation, economists warn that the lag effect may still bring upward pressure in the months ahead. Bond yields responded to the data, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.41%, reinforcing the market’s belief that rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be on the horizon.

Trade Deal Lacks Impact: Sentiment Hinges on Larger Agreement

President Trump’s announcement that China will provide rare-earth minerals and ease restrictions on students was framed as a “great WIN,” yet the market’s response remained measured. Investors appear to be holding out for a more comprehensive resolution to U.S.-China trade tensions — one that could reduce uncertainty and ease the tariff burden on global supply chains. Until such clarity emerges, equities may continue to tread water.

The broader concern is that if a more meaningful deal does not materialize, high tariffs could drag the U.S. and global economies closer to recession, especially if inflation simultaneously picks up.

Energy and Currency Markets Steady

Crude oil prices remained relatively stable, with U.S. benchmark crude rising slightly to $68.28 and Brent crude inching up to $69.87. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar softened against the Japanese yen, reflecting a slight pullback in risk appetite, while the euro edged higher against the dollar, consistent with easing Treasury yields.

Overall, the mixed market performance across Asia highlights skepticism about the immediate benefits of the trade deal and continued uncertainty over the economic fallout of U.S. tariffs. While lower-than-expected inflation has sparked hopes for Fed rate cuts, persistent geopolitical and trade-related concerns continue to weigh on investor confidence. The next decisive catalyst may come from tangible tariff rollbacks or policy

Source: AP

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FastBull Featured

Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. U.S. tariff revenue hits record high in May, helping narrow the monthly deficit.

2. Iranian defense minister states all U.S. military bases in the Middle East are within range.

3. Bessent expects U.S. FY 2025 budget deficit to approach 7%.

4. Trump will send letters to Trade Partners within the next one or two weeks to set unilateral tariff rates.

5. Israel issues new response to Gaza Ceasefire Draft.

6. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals willingness to extend the tariff suspension period.

7. U.S. CPI "Surprises" to the downside, but may not be enough to influence Fed decision-making.

[News Details]

U.S. tariff revenue hits record high in May, helping narrow the monthly deficit

U.S. tariff revenue reached a record high in May, aiding in narrowing the budget deficit for the month. However, questions remain about the sustainability of these tariff revenues amid ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and trade partners, as well as legal challenges to tariff measures. According to the U.S. Treasury Department’s monthly budget report, tariff revenue in May reached 23 billion, a year−on−year increase of 17 billion, or a surge of 270%. After adjusting for calendar-year differences, the fiscal deficit in May was 316 billion, down 17%, and the deficit for the first eight months of the current fiscal year was 1.37 trillion. An official from the department told reporters that considering deferred revenue from 2023 to 2024 and calendar-year adjustments, the deficit has narrowed by 1% since the start of the fiscal year. Another factor driving last month’s improved fiscal position was a decline in debt-servicing costs. An official noted that this was due to lower interest payments on inflation-linked bonds and reduced discounts on Treasury bills.

Iranian defense minister states all U.S. military bases in the Middle East are within range

Iran and the U.S. are set to hold a new round of indirect talks in Oman on Sunday, June 15. Iranian Defense Minister Nasirzadeh warned on June 11th that if the talks fail and lead to a military conflict between Iran and the U.S., Iran will attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East. Mediated by Oman, the two sides have held five rounds of indirect talks since April this year. However, they still disagree on several core issues, particularly Washington’s insistence that Iran fully halts all levels of uranium enrichment on its soil, which Iran has rejected as a “zero enrichment” demand.

Bessent expects U.S. FY 2025 budget deficit to approach 7%

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed Democrats for potentially another unusually large budget deficit this year. He projected that the deficit-to-GDP ratio for the current fiscal year would range between 6.5% and 6.7%, marking the third consecutive year it has exceeded 6%. According to Treasury data, the deficit ratio was 6.4% for fiscal year 2024 and 6.2% for fiscal year 2023. The fiscal year ends in late September.

Trump will send letters to Trade Partners within the next one or two weeks to set unilateral tariff rates

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he plans to send letters to trade partners within the next week or two to set unilateral tariff rates, aiming to reimpose higher tariffs on dozens of economies by the July 9 deadline. “At a certain point, we’re just going to send letters out. And I think you understand that, saying this is the deal, you can take it or leave it.” Trump told reporters during an event at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington on Wednesday local time. It remains unclear whether Trump will follow through. He often sets two-week action deadlines but has frequently delayed or seen such plans fizzle out. On May 16, Trump said he would set tariff rates for U.S. trade partners “over the next one to two weeks.” Currently, the U.S. has only reached a trade framework with the United Kingdom.

Israel issues new response to Gaza Ceasefire Draft

Israeli media reported late on June 11th local time that Israel has issued a new response to the draft ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement for Gaza. The latest Israeli response includes flexible adjustments, such as timelines for the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to release Israeli detainees and extend the ceasefire. However, Israel still firmly rejects agreeing to a permanent end to its military operations in Gaza and insists on retaining control over the distribution of humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip. On the evening of June 10th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened a meeting with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, and senior officials from Israeli security agencies to discuss and decide on related issues.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent signals willingness to extend the tariff suspension period

At a hearing held by the House Ways and Means Committee in Washington on Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the U.S. has 18 “important trading partners” with whom the Trump administration is working to reach agreements. For countries and trade blocs (such as the EU) that are “negotiating in good faith,” the U.S. is “highly likely” to “roll the date forward to continue good faith negotiations.” He added, “If someone is not negotiating, then we will not.” Previous Trump administration officials had not indicated that tariff suspensions would be extended if “terms of an agreement” were not reached before the suspension expired. Bessent’s remarks suggest that as the deadline approaches, the Trump administration may be more inclined to adjust its own self-imposed deadlines.

U.S. CPI "Surprises" to the downside, but may not be enough to influence Fed decision-making

U.S. CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in May, with the month-on-month data increasing for the second consecutive month by 0.1%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) climbed 0.1% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year.

Housing prices remained the primary driver of the increase, rising 0.3% month-on-month. Other categories with notable month-on-month gains included food, medical services, personal care items, and education. Meanwhile, energy prices fell 1.0% month-on-month.

Core CPI has remained stubborn, with its year-on-year increase holding steady at 2.8% for three consecutive months. Given the unclear material impact of trade policies on inflation, recent economic indicators, including nonfarm payrolls and inflation data, have not provided sufficient grounds for the Fed to open up space for interest rate cuts.

Following the data release, traders ramped up their bets on Fed rate cuts, largely anticipating two reductions this year. Interest rate swaps indicate that market participants see a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut by September.

【Today's Focus】

UTC+8 20:00 ECB Vice President Guindos speaks

UTC+8 20:20 ECB Governor Schnabel speaks

UTC+8 20:30 US May PPI

UTC+8 23:15 ECB Governor Elderson speaks

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Catherine Richards

For four months many economists have predicted that US inflation would reignite, in large part due to President Donald Trump’s trade war and the knock-on effects his tariffs would have on the economy. But for a fourth month in a row, data released by the Trump administration’s Bureau of Labor Statistics came in lower than expected. The consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased only 0.1% from April, according to government data.

The string of below-forecast inflation readings could be attributable to how many of the administration’s threatened levies are on hold. (In early April, Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs managed to destabilize the bond market before he largely retreated.) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is being floated as a potential replacement for Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve, credited Trump’s trade policies for slowing inflation, saying he challenged a “decades-old status quo.”

However, prices for groceries rose 0.3% after declining in April and retailers like Walmart and Target have warned of higher prices, as have carmakers including Ford and Subaru. A Fed survey of economic activity last week showed prices advanced at a “moderate” pace across the US in recent weeks, with some regions expecting future increases to be “strong, significant or substantial.”

America’s debt burden and interest expense have become “untenable,” a situation that may lead investors to move out of dollar-based assets, according to DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach. “There’s an awareness now that the long-term Treasury bond is not a legitimate flight-to-quality asset,” the veteran bond manager said Wednesday in an interview at the Bloomberg Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles. A “reckoning is coming.”

In a wide-ranging discussion that also touched on gold’s attractiveness, stretched market valuations, the state of private credit, artificial intelligence and long-term investment opportunities in India, Gundlach said investors should be considering non-dollar-based holdings, adding that his firm was starting to introduce foreign currencies into its funds.

Calling Trump’s accelerating militarization of the government response to mostly peaceful protests in Los Angeles an “unmistakable step toward authoritarianism,” California Governor Gavin Newsom warned in a prime-time speech Tuesday that “democracy is under assault right before our eyes. This moment we have feared has arrived.”

Newsom, a leading potential Democratic candidate for president in 2028 who Trump has threatened with arrest, said the 78-year-old Republican will seek to bend other states to his will and threatens America’s wavering system of government. Protests against Trump have spread across the country, with more planned through the weekend.

Undeterred, Trump, who pardoned hundreds of his followers for their roles in the deadly Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, made a thinly veiled threat of violence against Americans who come out to protest his coming military parade in Washington (which coincides with his 79th birthday). Also, Trump’s attorney general and defense secretary threatened to federalize local prosecutions and increase domestic use of the military, respectively. And finally, members of the US military are not only assisting federal security agents on immigration raids in Los Angeles, but they are now themselves detaining Americans citizens.

Apollo Global Management told prospective investment-banking candidates that it won’t interview or extend offers to the class of 2027 this year, following a backlash from banks over young recruits accepting future-dated offers. In a letter sent to candidates on Wednesday, Apollo explained its decision by saying it believes graduates should take time early in their careers and deepen their understanding of business.

Apollo Chief Executive Officer Marc Rowan said he agreed with recent criticisms that the process for hiring young recruits had started too early. “Hiring decisions at Apollo are among the most significant to our business,” David Sambur, co-head of private equity and Nicole Bonsignore, head of human capital, wrote in the letter seen by Bloomberg. “With that in mind, we will not formally interview and extend offers this year for the class of 2027.”

Paul Tudor Jones sees the US dollar dropping over the next year as short-term interest rates fall sharply, he said. Jones, who founded the $16 billion macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., said the dollar may be 10% lower a year from now as the yield curve steepens. “You know that we are going to cut short-term rates dramatically in the next year,” Jones said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “And you know that the dollar will probably be lower because of it. A lot lower because of it.”

Republican senators are considering placing a $30,000 cap on the state and local tax deduction as a compromise between current law and the more generous limit in the House’s version of the massive GOP tax bill. Senator Thom Tillis said his fellow Republican senators are trying to reduce the House-passed $40,000 SALT limit to at least $30,000.

Senators are also considering revising a levy on foreign investors, which has become known as the Section 899 “revenge tax.” That has sparked fears on Wall Street that it could make it difficult for foreign companies and individuals to invest in the US. Investors also fear the tax bill as a whole—specifically its projected multitrillion-cost to the US budget.