XRP price will hit $25 if ETF approved, then crash 90%, new analysis says

Key takeaway:

• Analysts predict XRP could hit $20–$27 in 2025.

• XRP ETF approval odds jump to 98% on Polymarket.

XRP recouped all the losses made between June 4 and June 6, and hovers around $2.26, up 9.7% from its local low of $2.06.

Analysts believe the altcoin could rally into double-digits amid increasing optimism of a possible spot XRP ETF approval in 2025.

Approval odds for an XRP ETF jump to 98%

The likelihood of the US Securities and Exchange Commission approving a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in 2025 jumped to 98% on June 3, according to Polymarket data.

Multiple spot XRP ETF applications from major players like Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and 21Shares have intensified pressure on the SEC, signaling robust demand for regulated XRP investment vehicles.

The launch of XRP futures ETFs by the CME Group on May 19, 2025, with $19 million in first-day trading volume, demonstrates market maturity and institutional interest, addressing SEC concerns about regulated derivatives markets.

Three companies across different sectors have unveiled plans to invest over $471 million in XRP treasuries, including Webus International’s $300 million XRP strategic reserve filing with the SEC, further underscoring corporate adoption and growing institutional trust.

These factors and Ripple’s legal clarity after the SEC dropped its lawsuit in March have bolstered market sentiment.

Despite SEC delays on filings, the CME futures market’s success and corporate strategies have driven Polymarket’s approval odds from 68% in April to as high as 98% in early June, reflecting expectations for approvals by Dec. 31.

Approval of these funds could unlock institutional capital, amplifying demand for XRP and potentially driving prices higher, with some analysts predicting $50 if major players like BlackRock step in.

Analysts anticipate XRP price climbing above $25

XRP price has been stuck below $3.00 since Feb. 1, but analysts say that the crypto could see a massive recovery from the current level, with a target of $25 and above.

XRP price is “targeting double digits” in 2025, according to popular market analyst Egrag Crypto.

Using his “The Guardian Arch” analysis, the analyst suggested that XRP’s price can rally to $20, potentially topping out at $27 based on past price patterns and timelines.

This analysis uses the relative positions of the 21-week exponential moving average and the 33-week simple moving average as key indicators to identify potential turning points.

The analysis also considers the formation of a bull flag in the monthly time frame, which suggests a continuation of the uptrend toward $20, followed by a possible 86% drop to $3.00 during the bear market.

Fellow analyst Jaydee_757 echoes this, saying that XRP’s current technical setup is “comparing the 2017 hidden bullish divergence” in the weekly time frame.

Jaydee_757 explained that the bullish divergence in 2017 led to a 20x rise in XRP price from around $0.0055 to all-time highs above $3.40.

If the 2017 scenario is repeated, a playout of the bullish divergence could see the price rally toward $25 and beyond, representing an over 1,000% increase from current levels.

Jaydee_757 also says that this massive rally could be followed by a 90% price crash during the bear market, suggesting that $25 could mark the top for XRP’s bull cycle in 2025.

These analyses align with previous predictions of XRP reaching $27 based on chart fractals, Eliot wave analysis and Fibonacci extensions.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.