WTI: Oil Price Rises Further As Positive Moves in US-China Trade Talks Improve The Sentiment

The price of a troy ounce of gold fell to 3,273 USD on Monday, losing about 1% compared to the previous session’s level.

Key factors driving gold’s movement

The primary reason for the decline is positive signals regarding trade talks between the US and China, which have reduced the demand for safe-haven assets.

Negotiations between representatives of the two countries concluded over the weekend, and the results offer some grounds for optimism. Beijing announced plans to initiate formal talks, while Washington reported progress towards an agreement.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he could provide further details at a full briefing on Monday. Today’s developments are expected to generate significant market reactions.

Geopolitically, the ceasefire between India and Pakistan remained in place until Sunday, despite mutual accusations of violations shortly after its conclusion.

Earlier, additional pressure on gold came from statements made by the Federal Reserve. The regulator warned of rising inflation and risks within the labour market. At the same time, Chairman Jerome Powell ruled out the possibility of a pre-emptive rate cut in response to tariff threats.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the 3,322 level. Today, we expect a possible decline to 3,195. After reaching this target, a correction to the 3,255 level is possible. Upon completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the local target of 3,070 may follow. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below the zero level and is pointed decisively downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has broken below the 3,290 level and continues to move towards 3,235. This target level will likely be reached today. A corrective move towards the 3,322 level cannot be ruled out. Subsequently, a decline to at least 3,200 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator; its signal line is below the 80 level and is directed steadily downwards towards the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains under pressure amid improving trade sentiment and hawkish commentary from the Fed, with technical indicators pointing to further downside potential. Traders will be closely watching today’s briefing for any new market-moving details.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Global equity markets jumped on Monday after the US and China agreed to walk back sky-high tariffs they had built up during weeks of tit-for-tat escalation.

Following talks in Switzerland, officials from the world’s two largest economies said in a joint statement that several recent tariff increases would be altered or suspended, resulting in a remaining 30% US tariff on Chinese goods and a 10% Chinese tariff on US goods. Before the weekend, those figures had stood at 145% and 125%.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index rose 1%, led higher by stocks most exposed to global trade including shipping giant A.P. Moeller-Maersk MAERSK B, up 11%, and car maker Stellantis STLA, up 7%.

US equity futures pointed to sharp increases at the opening, with contracts on the S&P 500 benchmark up 2.5% and on the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 index up 3.3%. Tech mega-caps outperformed in pre-market trading as Tesla TSLA rose 7%, Apple AAPL rose 5% and Nvidia NVDA rose 4.5%.

There’s “a lot of potential for good news, but the markets are getting very excited too early,” Morningstar’s chief European markets strategist Michael Field said. “The US-China deal has 30% import taxes on Chinese goods which could stem trade flow still. The EU hasn’t even begun negotiations with the US, and if we get anything like the UK deal, then it’s bad news.”

Dollar Jumps Against Euro, Treasury Yields Up

The risk-on sentiment on equity markets weighed on safe-haven assets, with the euro erasing the past month’s gains against the dollar.

Meanwhile, both German bund yields and 10-year US treasury yields jumped to their highest levels in about a month. Bunds were up seven basis points to 2.62% and treasury yields at 4.43%.

“Although the reductions are temporary, they represent a notable shift in the overall effective tariff burden,” according to Stuart Rumble, head of investment directing in the Asia-Pacific region at Fidelity International. “The high US-China tariff regime has already caused major disruption, reducing bilateral trade between the world’s two largest economies and increasing the risk of a broader global slowdown.”

Trump’s Drug Pricing Plans Roil Pharma Stocks

Also over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said on social media that he’d force a reduction in prescription drug prices by 30-80% in the US by mandating that manufacturers charge US consumers in line with the lowest prices offered in other nations.

The announcement sent health care stocks plunging in Asia and Europe. Takeda Pharmaceuticals TAK dropped 6.5% in Tokyo while Europe’s Stoxx 600 Health Care sector index fell 2.8% on Monday morning, led lower by Genmab GMAB‘s 8% decline and Novo Nordisk NVO falling 5.7%.

New Hope for Ukraine Truce

Reports over the weekend indicate Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky may be set to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Istanbul as soon as Thursday, aiming to pave the way to peace talks with an initial ceasefire of 30 days, the first pause in fighting since Russia’s illegal full-scale invasion more than three years ago.

Shares of weapons makers declined on Monday morning, including Germany’s Rheinmetall RHM, Italy’s Leonardo LDO, and France’s Dassault Aviation AM all down by more than 7%.

Source: Morningstar

The U.S. dollar surged higher Monday, boosted by the announcement of a trade deal between China and the U.S. over the weekend, raising hopes that the U.S. economy can avoid a damaging prolonged trade war.

At 03:30 ET (08:30 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, rose 1.3% to 101.455, trading at a one-month high.

That said, the gauge is still down over 3% from the April 2 announcement of Trump’s "Liberation Day"

Dollar surges on trade deal

The White House on Sunday announced that a trade deal with China had been reached after U.S. officials spent the weekend negotiating with their Chinese counterparts in Geneva.

More substance emerged Monday, with the two sides agreeing to a 90-day pause to soaring tariffs placed on each other. Additionally, Washington has moved to slash tariffs on China to 30% and Beijing’s duties on U.S. imports are being cut to 10%, the nations said in a rare joint statement.

Heading into the talks, U.S. President Donald Trump had raised tariffs on China to at least 145%, leading China to respond with retaliatory levies on American imports of 125%.

More trade negotiations are planned between the two, while both sides may conduct working-level consultations on relevant economic and trade issues.

“We have argued in recent weeks that the dollar likely requires a constant flow of positive news on trade de-escalation to keep recovering,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

“The Trump administration has so far provided it, and while the dollar’s recovery hasn’t been nearly as spectacular as in equities, there is a strong sense that Trump’s pragmatic shift on trade has trimmed the tail risks for the greenback.”

Aside from more trade news, this week’s focus is likely to center around the release of the latest consumer price index on Tuesday, as investors look for indications of how the trade spat has impacted the economy and thus expectations for further rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The odds for a June easing are now priced at just 17%, with July at 59%.

Euro potentially overvalued

In Europe, EUR/USD traded 1.2% lower to 1.1109, with the single currency hit hard as traders surged back into the dollar in the wake of the news of a U.S.-China trade deal.

“A decisive break lower looks on the cards,” said ING. “The pair is trading 3% off its 21 April peak, but remains around 3% overvalued according to our short-term fair value model. That misvaluation is largely justified by the short-term rate differentials, which continue to heavily favor the dollar.”

The European Central Bank has cut interest rates seven times in the past year as inflation has been rapidly retreating, and policymakers have already started to lay the groundwork for another cut in early June.

Financial markets see a 90% chance of a rate cut in June and see another cut or two in subsequent months, while the odds of Fed rate cut next week are considerably lower.

Traders are also keeping an eye on events in Ukraine, after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for talks.

“A breakthrough in peace negotiations will be beneficial for EUR/USD, but the extent of the impact will be highly dependent on the market’s assessment of the sustainability of any truce,” ING added.

GBP/USD fell 1% to 1.3180, with sterling holding up slightly better than the single currency after last week’s announcement of a trade deal between the U.S> and the U.K..

Safe-haven yen slips back

In Asia, USD/JPY traded 1.8% higher to 147.92, with the safe haven yen hit hard by the announcement of a U.S.-China trade deal.

USD/CNY traded 0.3% lower to 7.2143, with the Chinese currency supported by the easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Data on Saturday showed that China’s inflationary pressures persisted in April, with consumer prices declining for the third consecutive month and factory-gate prices experiencing their sharpest drop in six months.

The nation continues to grapple with the economic fallout from its ongoing trade battle with the U.S..

Source: Investing

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs Show Diverging May Flows

Summarizing the recent cryptocurrency market activities, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experienced contrasting flows between May 5-9, 2025. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $142.3 million net inflows, whereas Ethereum ETFs faced volatility following its "Pectra" upgrade.

The variations in ETF flows highlight differing institutional outlooks on Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market dynamics suggest these shifts may influence investment strategies and crypto valuation.

Ethereum ETF Inflows and Upgrades

Ethereum ETFs recorded a net inflow of $17.6 million on May 9, 2025, a reversal from previous days. Volatility was noted due to the Pectra upgrade affecting prices and performance, even as Bitcoin ETFs showed strong inflows.

Bitcoin ETFs attracted $142.3 million on May 7, 2025, continuing a pattern of investor preference. The data shows larger interest in Bitcoin despite Ethereum's notable network adjustments, impacting market sentiment.

Institutional Perspectives and Market Competition

The "Pectra" upgrade significantly affected Ethereum's price, with a 25% gain within 48 hours, enhancing its competitive stance against Solana. However, recent market dynamics suggest institutional hesitancy in Ethereum ETFs.

The financial landscape indicates Ethereum's struggle to maintain positive ETF flows. Institutional investors exhibited varied responses, balancing upgrades' benefits against potential risks, unlike Bitcoin's consistent attraction.

Technological Advancements in Ethereum

Ethereum's advancements in transaction capacity and speed are pivotal for its competitive strategy. Such technological directions are crucial, intensified by data-driven market forecasts and institutional leanings.

Historical trends reveal potential price strength for Ethereum, influenced by its ETF structures and evolving scalability. These technological enhancements and financial outcomes could redefine its rivalry in the crypto markets.

Source: CryptoSlate

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group, which has been in conflict with the Turkish state for more than four decades, has decided to dissolve itself and end its armed struggle, a news agency close to the group reported on Monday.

The PKK decision is set to have far-reaching political and security consequences for the region, including in neighbouring Syria where Kurdish forces are allied with U.S. forces.

The Firat news agency published what it said was the closing declaration of a congress that the PKK held last week in northern Iraq, in response to a call in February from its jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan to disband.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's office and the foreign ministry did not immediately comment on the announcement.

More than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict since the PKK launched its insurgency in 1984. It is designated a terrorist group by Turkey and its Western allies.

Source: Reuters

Source：Whitehouse