USD/CHF Analysis: Will Swiss National Bank (SNB) act on CHF surge?

Forex

Summary:

The Swiss Franc surged 9% this month, pressuring Switzerland’s export-driven economy and raising speculation of SNB intervention, while USD/CHF shows bearish technical signals suggesting a possible short-term correction.

The Swiss Franc has been on a tear of late against the USD and a host of other currencies. The CHFs rapid rise has come about amid the rise in uncertainty and a demand for safe havens. The beneficiaries being the traditional havens like the Japanese Yen, the Swiss Franc and of course Gold.

The Swiss Franc is an interesting one though given the reliance of Swiss business on the export market. Swiss Franc gains last year already prompted businesses to bring up the idea of intervention by the Swiss National Bank to assist.

The Franc or Swissie as it is also known, has jumped about 9% against the dollar this month, marking its biggest monthly rise since the 2008 financial crisis. Last week, it reached its highest level since January 2015, when the SNB ended its minimum exchange rate policy.

USD/CHF Analysis: Will Swiss National Bank (SNB) act on CHF surge?_1

This begs the question, will the SNB step in and intervene?

Well voices on the matter are certainly growing with Jean-Philippe Kohl, vice director of industry association Swissmem saying he did not demand SNB action but would welcome any moves by the central bank to mitigate the franc's rise.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) response

The SNB stated this month that it doesn’t manipulate currency and only steps in to maintain price stability. It also mentioned the possibility of bringing back negative rates.

However, negative rates, used from 2014 to 2022, were unpopular with banks, savers, and pension funds, making interventions seem like a simpler option.

While a lot of the focus has been on the performance of the Swissie against the US Dollar, policymakers are likely focused on the Swiss currency's rise against the euro since most Swiss trade is with eurozone countries, making euro-priced imports a bigger factor in inflation.

In 2023, 57% of Swiss imports were in euros, compared to 13% in dollars. The central bank says it doesn’t focus on single currency pairs but looks at a range of currencies to guide its policy and ensure it meets its inflation target.

Irrespective of the comments thus far, the SNB may be running out of options. The rise of the Franc has put the Central Bank in a difficult situation with the likelihood of intervention growing.

Technical Analysis - USD/CHF

From a technical standpoint, USD/CHF appears to have found a bottom around the 0.8079 handle with the last two days of bullish daily candle closes a positive sign for further gains.

However, today's daily candle is on course for an inside bar handing man candle close which is a bearish sign and may spook market participants. Given that the moves are largely driven by tariff developments, a visit to recent lows cannot be ruled if the US-China stalemate drags on.

USD/CHF Daily Chart, April 24, 2025

Dropping down to a four-hour chart and the trendline break does support further upside.

A move higher faces resistance at 0.8350 and 0.8409 handles before the 200-day MA and significant swing high at 0.8577 come into focus.

There is also a chance of a trendline retest if the tit-for -tat between the US and China continues.

In such a scenario, support rests at 0.8200 before the trendline becomes support and lastly we have the psychological 0.8000 handle which could finally come into play.

USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart, April 24, 2025

Client sentiment data

Taking a look at client sentiment data and 86% of traders are currently net-long USD/CHF. I tend t take a contrarian view toward sentiment which means that USD/CHF could face a downside correction in the short-term.

Source: marketpulse

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Damon

Cryptocurrency

Despite speculation in recent days about progress in trade discussions, China officially denied any such advancements, rejecting the idea that a deal is near. The country’s Ministry of Commerce reiterated that talks can only proceed if all unilateral tariff measures are fully withdrawn by the U.S.

A Harsh Message from Beijing

In a firm statement, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong responded directly to recent U.S. commentary. “The unilateral tariff measures were initiated by the United States. If the U.S. truly intends to resolve the issue, it must completely cancel all tariffs on Chinese goods and find a way to address differences through equal dialogue,” he said.

This comes after the U.S. Treasury Secretary acknowledged that the trade war is “not sustainable” and emphasized the need for both sides to reduce tensions. Nonetheless, China’s response indicates that it will not return to the negotiating table under current conditions.

While Trump’s recent comments appeared to suggest flexibility, Beijing’s firm stance indicates that there is no official negotiation or consultation currently underway, particularly on tariff issues.

Implications for the Crypto Market

From the perspective of Dey There, geopolitical developments like this are not just diplomatic or economic matters—they ripple into the cryptocurrency space. With no agreement in sight, market uncertainty is likely to increase, potentially leading to greater volatility in traditional and digital assets alike.

Cryptocurrencies tend to benefit in times of geopolitical instability, as investors seek alternatives to fiat currencies and government-controlled financial systems. If trade tensions continue to rise without resolution, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could become safe-haven assets, attracting renewed interest from global investors.

Moreover, uncertainty around supply chains and traditional financial markets may push institutions and retail investors toward decentralized assets with global liquidity.

Trump’s Latest Threats Add More Fuel

As this article was being prepared, Trump escalated matters by threatening default measures against China, citing unfulfilled aircraft purchase agreements with Boeing. He also criticized China’s role in the fentanyl crisis, accusing the country of fueling the opioid epidemic through indirect channels.

These statements mark a sharp turn from earlier suggestions of diplomatic flexibility and may widen the rift between the two nations even further. The sharp language and pointed accusations may derail any backchannel discussions that were quietly underway.

The Road Ahead

What global markets and the crypto ecosystem need now is not just words but concrete, measurable progress. If the U.S. is serious about reaching a compromise, it must move beyond signaling and begin meaningful tariff negotiations.

For the crypto market, a prolonged standoff could offer momentum, especially if traditional financial systems become more strained. As Dey There observes, the stakes have never been higher—what happens next could redefine the balance of power in both macroeconomic policy and digital finance.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Forex

Deadlines spur action.

In markets, sentiment does too.

A flurry of commentary from President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning spurred a rally in the stock market.

As Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reported, this action signaled to some on Wall Street that the president was starting to "feel the market" as he did during his first term in office, using financial markets more like a scorecard reflecting the success of his economic policies.

For weeks now, the stock market has ebbed and flowed on one basic thing: trade-related headlines.

Wednesday's action, which saw stocks moderate gains after Bessent made further comments clarifying the administration's stance on US-China trade talks, shows this trend continues.

But the accumulation of negative information investors had digested since April 2 also helped prime the market to respond positively to this week's developments.

"Based on the daily news flow and our own client interactions, it seems that the pessimism among investors when it comes to the trajectory of US stocks has increased substantially in recent weeks," BMO's chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

"While we understand that it has been a challenging market environment the past few months and the scope of the recent selloff has been unsettling, it is important to note that not all market indicators are signaling further downside in the months ahead, despite what some pundits may be suggesting. In fact, some of our most tried-and-true contrarian indicators have recently plunged to excessively negative levels, which suggests to us that a solid price rebound may be on the horizon should history be any sort of guide."

In other words, tariff-related comments from Trump, among others in the administration, may be pushing the stock market around. But the stock market also needed to be in a certain place to be pushed around.

The first — and most notable, in our view — factor that Belski calls out is the massively negative trend in forward earnings revisions.

In just the last few weeks, the ratio of rising earnings forecasts compared to all forecasts being issued has plunged to around 30% for the second fiscal year out. Meaning the majority of earnings forecasts being published for the year after next are penciling in lower profits than had previously been modeled.

Given that stock prices are most influenced not by whether things are good or bad but whether they're getting better or worse, this round of negative revisions for results two years out shows a clear disintegration in optimism about the path forward.

Belski's team's work, however, shows that when this measure falls to levels seen of late, year-ahead returns for the S&P 500 have averaged over 12%. The most recent instances of this dynamic prevailing include late 2022, early 2020, and early 2016.

In Wednesday's Morning Brief, we highlighted that some of America's biggest companies are saying higher costs from tariffs will be passed on to consumers.

Reporting from Axios on Wednesday indicated executives from Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD) suggested as much in a visit to the White House earlier this week.

Higher costs for businesses. Higher costs for consumers. Lower profits for businesses. Lower stock prices for investors.

This is the recipe for a sentiment washout and the "substantial" increase in pessimism referenced by Belski's team. And the setup needed for the market to react to Trump's latest tariff comments with the force seen this week.

Source: yahoo

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Michelle Reid

Cryptocurrency

China has sent a stark reminder to the United States that no negotiations have commenced, characterizing the previous softening of tensions as a unilateral move. This declaration raises apprehensions among cryptocurrency holders. Concurrently, Japan is strategizing to boost imports from the U.S. as it seeks to negotiate tariff agreements with multiple nations. A pressing question on many minds remains: when will Bitcoin soar to $100,000?

Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000 Soon?

The stagnation of Bitcoin at current price points keeps alive worries about a potential dip to the $69,000-$66,000 zone. At the moment, Bitcoin hovers around $93,300, trying to recover from the recent declines triggered by tariff announcements.

What Does the Chart Indicate for Bitcoin?

Recent analyses reveal positive signs for Bitcoin. A chart shared by expert Jelle emphasizes the critical significance of the $100,000 benchmark. He stated, “Bitcoin is delivering precisely what bullish traders desire. A minor pullback solidifies the recovery at the lower price threshold, paving the way for another surge, potentially to $100,000.”

In addition, insights from Ali Martinez regarding the Bitcoin MVRV ratio suggest a possible upcoming bull rally, especially following a golden cross between the MVRV ratio and a 365-day simple moving average.

The cryptocurrency market has predominantly experienced downturns over recent months, benefiting short sellers. However, the latest uptick in Bitcoin’s price has caught many off guard, as airdrops have not met expectations, leading investors to feel that short-term gains are elusive.

Altcoin Sherpa provided his perspective on effective investment strategies, indicating that while traditional investments can yield profits, opportunities are scarce. He advised that trading-based approaches might offer greater flexibility and potential for profits, particularly in today’s turbulent market.

● China’s recent statements have alarmed cryptocurrency investors.

● Bitcoin currently struggles to maintain its value while aiming for a significant recovery.

● Market fluctuations are creating challenges for both short and long-term investors.

The outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, but analysts suggest that positive indicators could lead to significant price movements if the market conditions align favorably. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Stocks

US stocks rallied on Thursday, with Big Tech leading the way as investors digested mixed signals from President Trump and his top advisers on tariffs.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.7%. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 1.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose 1.8%. The "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks all gained.

The S&P 500 has rallied over 4% in the last two days, boosted in large part by tariff-talk optimism. On Wednesday, stocks rallied as the US floated slashing China tariffs, though the stock surge eased when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there has been "no unilateral offer from the president to deescalate" the trade war with China.

Meanwhile on Thursday, China stood defiant as the US eased its rhetoric, demanding the US eliminate all tariffs and denying that any talks have taken place between the nations.

While Trump's apparent eagerness to negotiate takes the spotlight, his approach to other key tariffs grew more muddled.

The Financial Times reported that the Trump administration is considering exempting automakers from the most punishing auto tariffs, yet Trump said from the Oval Office that a 25% tariff on cars imported from Canada could increase.

The White House also ordered a probe into truck imports, paving the way for tariffs on the sector.

In corporates, IBM (IBM) shares dropped 5% on Thursday after the company revealed 15 government contracts were impacted by cost cuts from the Trump administration. Chipotle (CMG) shares rose slightly after its first quarter earnings missed expectations and it lowered its 2025 forecast.

On Thursday, Wall Street's attention will shift to Alphabet earnings. While investors don't expect the company's results to be impacted by Trump's trade war yet, they'll be watching for any warning signs of how tariffs could hit the business in the near future.

Intel is also reporting earnings after the bell on Thursday. The results will be the company's first under the leadership of its new CEO, Lip-Bu Tan.

Source: yahoo

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Central Bank

The uncertainty around trade tariffs is complex but a period of uncertainty also provides Europe with an opportunity to assert itself as an economic and geopolitical superpower, the governor of the Bank of Latvia told CNBC Thursday.

“With all this uncertainty and vulnerability, this is also the time of opportunities for Europe,” said Mārtiņš Kazāks, who is also a member of the governing council of the European Central Bank.

“It’s a time for Europe to grasp all the aspects of being an economic superpower and becoming a really fully-fledged political and geopolitical superpower, and this requires doing all the decisions that in the past, were not carried out fully,” after the global financial crisis, he said. The central bank chief cited a capital markets union, fiscal union and a single market in services as examples of further integration that were needed.

“This requires political will, political guts to make those decisions, and to strengthen the European economy and assert its place in a global world,” Kazāks told CNBC’s Carolin Roth on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings in Washington this week.

When asked what tariffs mean for the ECB, which implemented a 25-basis-point interest rate cut at its April meeting, Kazāks said decisions would be taken “from meeting-to-meeting because of this very poor visibility.”

“The uncertainty is very hard,” he noted, adding that “it’s certainly a very vulnerable situation for the global economy.”

“The [political] statements, the policy decisions and the political environment and especially the tariff war are what’s creating this extremely elevated uncertainty.”

Kazāks said financial markets should be monitored very carefully for any dramatic shifts in sentiment.

“So far it seems to be relatively orderly ... but if one looks at the spillovers to Europe, the financial markets are working more or less fine, we haven’t seen spreads exploding or anything like that,” he said.

“But in terms, however, of the macro scenarios, this uncertainty is extremely elevated in the sense that, given the possible outcomes, the multiple scenarios and their probabilities are very similar with the baseline [tariff] scenario,” he said.

Although the initial duties announced in early April by U.S President Donald Trump, as well as the EU’s retaliatory countermeasures, were paused for 90 days until July, there are concerns over the wider impact on regional and global economic growth once that period ends.

The IMF earlier this week forecast that U.S. gross domestic product would expand 1.8% in 2025, down 0.9 percentage points from its January forecast. The fund also cut its global growth forecast to 2.8% this year, down 0.5 percentage points from its previous estimate.

The fund predicted a slight decline in the euro zone, forecasting that euro area GDP will hit 0.8% in 2025, before picking up modestly to 1.2% in 2026.

Kazāks said the IMF’s forecasts were on the optimistic side, and that the risk of global recession was “not trivial.”

Source: cnbc

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Grace Montgomery

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign an executive order on Thursday to boost the deep-sea mining industry, the latest attempt to tap international deposits of nickel, copper and other critical minerals used widely across the economy.

The order will likely fast track permitting for deep-sea mining in international waters and let mining companies bypass a United Nations-backed review process, Reuters previously reported.

Shares of The Metals Company - among the most prominent of deep-sea mining companies - rose on Thursday by roughly 40% to hit a 52-week high of $3.39 per share after the Reuters report on the executive order.

Trump has taken several steps already to boost domestic production of critical minerals and combat China's dominance of the industry that supplies the raw materials needed for a wide range of modern technologies and industries, especially those related to clean energy and defense.

Among other things, he has fast-tracked permitting on 10 mining projects across the United States and implemented an abbreviated approval process for mining projects on federal lands.

The International Seabed Authority - created by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which the U.S. has not ratified - has for years been considering standards for deep-sea mining in international waters, although it has yet to formalize them due to unresolved differences over acceptable levels of dust, noise and other factors from the practice.

Trump's deep-sea mining order is likely to stipulate that the U.S. aims to exercise its rights to extract critical minerals on the ocean's floor, and to let miners bypass the ISA and seek permitting through the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's mining code, Reuters previously reported.