USA EIA Raises WTI Oil Price Forecasts

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecast for 2025 and 2026.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on November 12, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) increased its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot average price forecast for 2025 and 2026.

According to this STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $65.15 per barrel in 2025 and $51.26 per barrel in 2026. In its previous STEO, which was released in October, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $48.50 per barrel in 2026. The EIA's September STEO forecast that the WTI spot price average would come in at $64.16 per barrel this year and $47.77 per barrel next year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA's latest STEO projected that the WTI spot price will average $58.65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $50.30 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $50.68 per barrel in the second quarter, and $52.00 per barrel across the third and fourth quarters of 2026.

The EIA's October STEO saw the WTI spot price averaging $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, $47.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $48.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $49.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In its September STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would come in at $65.14 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $55.41 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $45.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $46.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $48.68 per barrel in the third quarter, and $50.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The EIA's latest STEO showed that the WTI spot price averaged $65.78 per barrel in the third quarter, $64.63 per barrel in the second quarter, and $71.85 per barrel in the first quarter. This STEO also highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $76.60 per barrel overall in 2024.

In a research note sent to Rigzone by Natasha Kaneva, the head of global commodities strategy at J.P. Morgan, on November 13, J.P. Morgan projected that the WTI crude oil price will average $62 per barrel in 2025 and $53 per barrel in 2026. In that note, J.P. Morgan forecast that the commodity will come in at $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $51 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $53 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $56 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

In a report sent to Rigzone by the Standard Chartered team on November 12, Standard Chartered forecast that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $65.40 per barrel in 2025 and $59.90 per barrel in 2026. Standard Chartered projected in that report that the commodity will come in at $61.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $58.50 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $59.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $60.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $61.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Standard Chartered also projected in this report that the commodity will average $63.50 per barrel in 2027.

BMI projected that the front month WTI crude price will average $65.00 per barrel in 2025 and $64.00 per barrel in 2026 back in a BMI report sent to Rigzone by the Fitch Group on October 24. BMI is a Fitch Solutions Company, that report highlighted.

Source: Rigzone

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Oil prices inched higher after a sharp 2.1% decline, as traders balanced rising geopolitical tensions with fresh signs of tightening U.S. supply. Markets briefly slipped on concerns that a potential easing of international frictions could release additional crude into an already well-supplied global system, where offshore storage remains elevated and output quotas have increased.

However, sentiment shifted after the EIA reported a 3.4 million-barrel draw, far above expectations of 603,000 barrels, reflecting strong refining activity and export demand. Gasoline and distillate builds signaled softer consumption, while investors await policy deadlines that could influence flows from major producers.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is holding within a well-defined ascending channel, with price rebounding sharply from the mid-channel support near $4.24. The 4h candles show steady higher lows since late October, keeping the broader trend biased upward despite short pullbacks.

Price is currently hovering near $4.52, just beneath the resistance band around $4.67, where recent rejection wicks appeared. The 20-EMA remains above the 50-EMA, signaling steady short-term momentum, while the RSI has climbed back toward 60 without showing divergence.

A clean break above $4.67 opens the next leg toward $4.82–$4.90, whereas failure to hold above $4.45 risks a slide back toward the channel floor near $4.30.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI Crude Oil is tightening inside a symmetrical triangle, with price holding near $59.40 as volatility continues to compress. The descending trendline from $61.47 is still capping every bounce, while the rising base from $57.36 has been respected for nearly a month.

Recent candles show small bodies and shallow wicks, reflecting reduced conviction on both sides. The 20-EMA is flattening and the 200-EMA sits overhead, keeping momentum neutral. RSI remains near 45, offering no divergence but confirming the current consolidation.

A close above $60.84 would signal an early breakout, while a drop below $58.69 risks a move toward $57.36.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

Brent crude is coiling inside a narrowing symmetrical triangle, with price hovering near $63.70 as traders wait for a clear break. The chart shows a series of higher lows holding above $63.08, while every push upward continues to stall near $65.21 — the upper boundary that has capped momentum for most of November.

The 20-EMA and 50-EMA are flattening, signaling a market caught in balance rather than trend. RSI sits in the mid-40s, showing neither exhaustion nor strength.

A decisive close above $64.80 would suggest buyers gaining control, opening room toward $65.21 and $66.73. Failure to break higher risks a slide back toward $63.08, where the rising trendline becomes the final support before $61.97.

Source: fxempire

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Gerik

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Massive Capital Flight Reflects Investor Panic

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), BlackRock’s flagship spot Bitcoin ETF, experienced its worst daily capital outflow to date, shedding $523 million on November 18. This marked the fifth consecutive day of net negative flows, highlighting a sharp reversal of sentiment in the digital asset market. The exodus of funds coincided with a steep decline in Bitcoin’s price, which has plunged nearly 30% since its historic peak in October and recently fell below $91,000 its lowest level since April.

This massive outflow represents a causal reaction to Bitcoin’s technical breakdown, triggering broad sell-offs not just from retail holders but also institutional investors who had previously viewed ETFs as a safer, regulated vehicle for crypto exposure.

Broad Crypto Market Weakness Amplifies Outflows

The selloff was not confined to Bitcoin. Other major cryptocurrencies followed suit: Ether and Dogecoin each lost around 3%, while Cardano dropped 2.2%. The entire crypto sector remains under pressure following a major leveraged liquidation event on October 10, which wiped out nearly $19 billion in capital. Since then, investor confidence has eroded, and liquidity has tightened.

The correlation between falling asset prices and ETF redemptions became especially visible when Bitcoin breached a key technical level on November 18, rendering all 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. collectively unprofitable. More than $3 billion in total outflows have been recorded across these funds in November alone, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for almost $2 billion of that.

From Record Inflows to Sudden Reversals

The abrupt shift in investor sentiment contrasts sharply with the optimism that surrounded IBIT’s launch in January 2024. At its peak, IBIT had attracted $26 billion in net inflows for the year, pushing its assets under management above $72 billion and positioning it as the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF.

However, the recent streak of redemptions has sparked concern. Strategists like Dilin Wu from Pepperstone highlight that the combination of ETF outflows and selling pressure from long-term holders is tightening liquidity and putting downward pressure on prices. This points to a negative feedback loop, where falling prices accelerate fund outflows, which in turn intensify the decline.

Hedging Activity Signals Deeper Caution

Investor anxiety is becoming more visible in derivatives markets. According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, a large number of traders are now purchasing downside protection betting on Bitcoin falling to $80,000 or lower by December 26. This hedging trend indicates a widespread expectation of further downside, especially in light of uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Persistent concerns about the health of the U.S. labor market and a now-uncertain outlook for a Fed rate cut in December are undermining risk appetite. Dawson emphasizes that with the odds of rate cuts looking like “a coin toss,” macro conditions are offering little reason for traders to hold onto bullish crypto positions through year-end.

The record-breaking outflow from BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is a stark indicator of how quickly sentiment can sour in the crypto market. As Bitcoin’s price collapses under technical and macroeconomic pressure, institutional investors are retreating from once-popular ETF products, raising questions about the sustainability of previous inflow momentum. With volatility expected to remain high and hedging behavior on the rise, the crypto market may face a protracted period of instability unless sentiment or fundamentals shift decisively.

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Justin

Forex

Economic

Swiss watch exports fell for a third month as US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs continued to weigh on the industry.

Watch exports fell 4.4% in October from a year earlier to 2.2 billion Swiss francs ($2.7 billion), the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said Thursday. Exports to the US — the largest market — slumped 47%. China, though, grew for a second month as exports rose 13%.

Tariffs have been the dominant narrative in the Swiss watch industry since Trump imposed a 39% levy on Switzerland — higher than the European Union and other developed economies — that went into effect on Aug. 7.

Watchmakers and other Swiss exporters finally got some good news last week when the US said it would cut the tariff to 15% — though there is no specific date for the new agreement to take effect.

Many producers had rushed to build up inventory in July to avoid the new levies, which left watchmakers controlled by the likes of Richemont, Swatch Group AG and LVMH, as well as independents including Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Rolex SA, facing diminished margins in their key market.

Manufacturers of watches, machines and precision instruments were among sectors hit hardest by the 39% levy, according to Switzerland's central bank, but the impact has extended beyond them with Switzerland's overall exports to the US also retreating in October.

Speaking on the day the tariff reduction was announced, Breitling AG Chief Executive Officer Georges Kern said he welcomed the cut, though he said the industry wanted to see the original levy of 2% reinstated. Swiss-made watches do not compete with domestic production or jeopardize jobs in the US, he added.

"The Swiss watch industry is further an important employer in the US, both for repair services and retail operations," he said in an interview.

Prices for lower-valued watches rose in October, though that was partially offset by a sharp 7% decline for watches priced at over 3,000 francs, the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry said.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Secret Diplomacy Stirs Political Shockwaves

Amid ongoing hostilities, Ukraine was blindsided by media reports this week suggesting the United States and Russia have quietly formulated a new peace proposal to end the war without Ukrainian input. According to leaks first reported by Axios and later echoed by major outlets like the Financial Times and Reuters, the alleged 28-point plan includes controversial elements such as Ukraine ceding effective control of its eastern Donbas region, halving its military, and surrendering access to specific weapon systems.

While the White House has neither confirmed nor denied the existence of this specific plan, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged that Washington is “developing a list of potential ideas” for a negotiated settlement, emphasizing the need for “difficult but necessary concessions” from both sides. This suggests a correlation between U.S. urgency to end the war and its willingness to explore bold diplomatic pathways even ones that might compromise Ukrainian sovereignty.

Ukraine’s Exclusion Sparks Outcry and Uncertainty

One of the most controversial aspects of the reports is that Kyiv was reportedly not involved in the drafting of the proposed framework. Ukrainian officials admitted they had only received vague “signals” from Washington about peace ideas but were not active participants in crafting the proposals.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while publicly expressing support for U.S.-led peace efforts, notably stated that only President Trump has the influence necessary to end the war. However, Zelenskyy did not confirm endorsement of the reported 28-point plan. First Deputy Foreign Minister Serhii Kyslytsia appeared more critical, dismissing such ideas as unrealistic narratives manufactured by Moscow. This disconnect between diplomatic fronts and internal sentiments highlights a growing strain within Ukraine’s strategic alliances.

Concessions Under Scrutiny

Among the most alarming alleged conditions is the possibility that Russia could assume administrative control over Donbas while formally leasing the land from Ukraine an arrangement likened to a sovereignty-for-stability tradeoff. Other provisions reportedly include a 50% reduction in Ukraine’s armed forces and an abandonment of long-range weapon systems.

The causal implication of such a framework is a dramatic weakening of Ukraine’s defensive posture, which could embolden Russia in future conflicts. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned the plan “would amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation” and create conditions favorable for renewed Russian aggression, with no reciprocal territorial or military compromises on Moscow’s side.

Europe Reacts with Alarm

European Union leaders have expressed concern about the reports, especially regarding the apparent exclusion of Ukraine and other regional stakeholders from the process. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated, “For any plan to work, it needs to have Ukrainians and Europeans on board.” Her remarks reinforce the correlated diplomatic risk of a bilateral peace deal undermining multilateral alliances and fragmenting the Western front on Ukraine.

The EU’s position is particularly significant given Europe’s central role in sanctions enforcement, humanitarian aid, and military support. A peace plan perceived as US–Russia-driven could erode trust and strain transatlantic coordination.

Ukraine Caught Between Dependency and Autonomy

With U.S. military and financial support still critical to Ukraine’s war effort but showing signs of slowdown Kyiv finds itself in a delicate strategic position. On one hand, it must maintain close alignment with Washington to ensure continued aid. On the other, it risks losing agency over its future if left out of high-stakes negotiations.

Zelenskyy’s openness to “any meaningful formats” signals flexibility but also desperation. Ukraine’s current geopolitical vulnerability means it may be forced to accept compromises to avoid diplomatic isolation or aid reductions an uncomfortable reality that adds further pressure on the country’s leadership.

The emergence of a secretive U.S.–Russia peace framework, particularly one allegedly crafted without Ukraine’s involvement, marks a potentially pivotal shift in the trajectory of the war. While the plan remains unconfirmed, its reported terms have already sparked fierce backlash and strategic anxiety across Kyiv and its European allies. As discussions progress, Ukraine must navigate the perilous balance between maintaining sovereignty and securing international support while the broader world watches closely for signs of how this conflict, and the alliances behind it, may evolve.

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Economic

U.S. stock futures soared Thursday after strong numbers from AI darling Nvidia eased concerns surrounding the heightened valuations in the heavily-weighted tech sector. More earnings from retail giant Walmart are scheduled, as well as the eagerly anticipated September official jobs report.

Nvidia surpasses bullish expectations

Nvidia has provided global markets with a positive jolt, as the chipmaker’s stellar third-quarter earnings and fourth-quarter forecast calmed, for now, investor nerves that the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has resulted in unsustainable valuations.

The world’s most valuable company posted third-quarter sales growth of 62%, the first acceleration in seven quarters, and also said it expected fiscal fourth-quarter sales of $65 billion, plus or minus 2%, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $61.66 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.

CEO Jensen Huang shrugged off concerns about an AI bubble, doubts that had pushed Nvidia’s shares down nearly 8% in November, after a surge of 1,200% in the past three years.

"There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different," CEO Jensen Huang said on a call with analysts.

Huang also reiterated that AI-fueled demand for Nvidia’s chips remained strong beyond just Wall Street’s hyperscalers, and that the company was set to continue benefiting from this trend in the coming quarters.

"We’re in every cloud. The reason why developers love us is because we’re literally everywhere," he said. "We’re everywhere from cloud to on-premise to robotic systems, edge devices, PCs, you name it. One architecture. Things just work. It’s incredible."

Huang also reiterated a forecast from last month that the company had $500 billion in bookings for its advanced chips through 2026.

Adding another potential tailwind, the Donald Trump administration is asking Congress to reject a proposed measure that seeks to limit Nvidia’s ability to sell artificial intelligence chips to China and embargoed countries, Bloomberg reported.

U.S. futures jump on Nvidia’s beat

U.S. stock futures rose strongly Thursday after Nvidia’s earnings beat helped to restore confidence, particularly in the heavily-weighed technology stocks.

At 03:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the S&P 500 futures traded 85 points, or 1.3%, higher Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 430 points, or 1.8%, and Dow futures rose 290 points, or 0.6%.

All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Wednesday, snapping a four-day slide for both indexes, but are still on course for a negative week given the depth of the recent pullback.

Nvidia shares soared premarket after its highly anticipated quarterly results beat expectations, while its upbeat guidance has lifted investor sentiment around the AI trade.

Elsewhere, retail giant Walmart is also set to release its quarterly results, while the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September nonfarm payrolls data, which was delayed by the U.S. government shutdown.

“Should the jobs data fail to swing the market towards a Fed cut in December (currently 50% priced), then pressure remains on equity markets,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Nonfarm payrolls up next

The U.S. Labor Department’s closely watched employment report for September will be released later in the session, and is likely to confirm consistently sluggish conditions within the important labor market.

The report was delayed by the 43-day shutdown of the government, which has also resulted in the cancellation of the October report, elevating the significance of this release ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting.

The Fed will still lack much of the data it usually relies on at the time of its next policy meeting on December 10, with the next jobs report now postponed until six days later to December 16.

Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 50,000 jobs in September, which would be more than double the 22,000 positions added in August, while the unemployment rate held steady near a four-year high of 4.3%.

“In years past a ~50K monthly jobs pace would be a bright green light for the Fed to slash rates, but in current environment, with a much lower break-even level (the break-even level for the U.S. economy might only be around 50K or less) and elevated inflation, the central bank won’t be as quick to act,” said analysts at Vital Knowledge, in a note.

Walmart due to report earnings

Walmart, the largest retailer in the world, will become the latest company from the important sector to report earnings later in the session, offering potential insights into the outlook for the crucial holiday shopping season.

Analysts expect Walmart to report $177.5 billion in revenue, a roughly 4.7% increase from a year earlier, resulting in about $0.60 in earnings per diluted share, up from $0.58 a year earlier.

These results will come after the retail titan said CEO Doug McMillon will retire next year after more than a decade in charge.

Since taking the job in 2014, McMillon has overseen a tripling in Walmart’s value to $817 billion, underpinned by a longstanding effort to battle Amazon in e-commerce sales.

The sector has seen mixed results so far this week.

Target lowered the upper end of its full-year earnings guidance and reiterated that it expects sales to drop in the current quarter, while Home Depot forecast a bigger drop in full-year profit.

On the flip side, Lowe’s reported third-quarter adjusted earnings that exceeded analyst expectations, and lifted its full-year 2025 sales outlook.

Crude set for weekly gains

Oil prices rose Thursday, on course for weekly gains, helped by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent futures gained 0.6% to $63.86 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.6% to $59.59 a barrel.

Both contracts are set to post weekly gains of over 1%, ahead of the November 21 deadline set by the U.S. for companies to wind down their business with Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two biggest oil producers.

Lending some support to prices was the bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles reported on Wednesday, as crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels in the week ended November 14, the Energy Information Administration said.

Crude prices fell sharply on Wednesday following a Reuters report that the U.S. had signalled to Ukraine to accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia.

Source : investing

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Michelle

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Kremlin stated on Thursday that any peace plan for Ukraine would need to address the root causes of the conflict, while confirming that despite ongoing contacts with the United States, no formal negotiations are currently taking place.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov indicated there was nothing to add beyond what was discussed at the August summit in Anchorage, Alaska, between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump.

"We can't add anything new to what was said in Anchorage," Peskov told reporters, clarifying the nature of current diplomatic interactions. "As such, consultations are not currently underway. There are contacts, of course, but there is no process that could be called consultations."

When questioned about whether Putin had been briefed on a reported "28-point peace plan," Peskov declined to provide details, reiterating: "I have nothing to add to what I have already said."

Peskov emphasized Russia's position that "a settlement must lead to the elimination of the root causes of this conflict," though he did not elaborate on what Moscow considers those root causes to be.