US Treasury May Mint A Trump One-Dollar Coin

Summary:

Rumors of a one-dollar coin bearing the image of U.S. President Donald Trump surfaced last week and the U.S Treasury confirmed them.

Should Trump Be on a Dollar Coin? The US Treasury Is Considering It

Donald Trump became the first president to launch a memecoin last year, and now the U.S. Treasury has confirmed that he may get his own one-dollar coin minted to commemorate the country’s 250th birthday in 2026.

What first appeared to be online gossip turned out to be verified fact when the U.S. Treasury confirmed that online posts claiming the department is considering minting a one-dollar coin bearing Trump’s face are in fact true.

“No fake news here. These first drafts honoring America’s 250th Birthday and @POTUS are real,” said U.S. Treasurer Brandon Beach. “Looking forward to sharing more soon, once the obstructionist shutdown of the United States government is over,” he added, referring to the current government shutdown now on its sixth day.

But there’s a problem; current legislation prohibits minting coins bearing images of living people, including presidents. According to Section 6 of the Circulating Collectible Coin Redesign Act of 2020, “No head and shoulders portrait or bust of any person, living or dead, and no portrait of a living person may be included in the design on the reverse of specified coins.”

It’s unclear how the Trump administration will get around the prohibition. The coin design currently being circulated shows a bust of the president on one side and on the flipside, an image of Trump pumping his right fist with the words “fight, fight, fight” inscribed along the top half. The image celebrates how the president survived an attempt on his life last summer.

Calvin Coolidge was the only living president to be featured on a U.S. coin. He earned that distinction in 1926 when a million half-dollars were minted bearing busts of both Coolidge and George Washington to celebrate the country’s 150th anniversary or sesquicentennial. The coins weren’t exactly a big hit however, and 859,408 of them were returned to the Philadelphia Mint and melted.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked on Friday about how the president felt regarding the prospects of having his face on a coin next year. “I’m not sure if he’s seen it, but I’m sure he’ll love it,” Leavitt said.

Source: CoinGecko

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

Key points:

● Morgan Stanley maintains its November 4 rate cut forecast but warns the bar has been raised significantly, with any pause likely to extend well into 2026 rather than being temporary.

● Economic data has provided mixed signals, with private sector credit growth re-accelerating to 7.1% annually in August, while consumer sentiment dipped 3.5% in October to firmly pessimistic levels.

● Consumer discretionary stocks, REITs and banks are most vulnerable to an extended pause after leading the market higher this year, with Morgan Stanley suggesting these sectors could become funding sources for rotation if the RBA holds rates indefinitely.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's anticipated November rate cut is facing growing uncertainty, with recent data and hawkish signalling raising doubts about whether the central bank will deliver the relief markets have been pricing in.Still, a 25 bp cut at the November 4 meeting remains the consensus view. The AFR's latest quarterly survey shows 23 out of 39 respondents pointing to a rate cut at the RBA's next policy meeting.Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast for a Melbourne Cup Day cut, but acknowledges the bar has been raised following the RBA's September hold and a string of stronger-than-expected economic data. The investment bank warns that any pause in the easing cycle could be extended rather than temporary, with significant implications for rate-sensitive sectors.

Data strengthens the case for a pause

The September meeting proved more hawkish than markets expected, with the RBA acknowledging stronger domestic and easier financial conditions. This followed several data points that suggested the economy retains more momentum than previously thought.Credit growth has re-accelerated across both households and businesses, with private sector credit growth accelerating to 7.1% annually in August, the strongest pace since February 2023.

However, household spending presented a mixed picture, rising only 0.1% month-on-month in August, though annual growth remained elevated at 5.0%, a near two-year high.In addition, building approvals fell 6% in August, missing economist expectations, while the trade balance narrowed sharply to a $1.8 billion surplus, also well below forecasts.

Economy can weather an extended pause

Morgan Stanley says the economy wouldn't immediately derail if the RBA keeps rates on hold. Housing conditions remain strong, and historical patterns indicate these typically strengthen further after the central bank pauses its cutting cycle.Fiscal spending continues to support the labour market, while consumers benefit from solid income growth and rising wealth. This combination has underpinned spending despite cost-of-living pressures that dominated headlines throughout 2024.

The main risk from a pause would be negative sentiment effects on consumers and businesses. However, Morgan Stanley believes the broader economic upswing that has been building throughout 2025 has sufficient momentum to continue.

Extended pause more likely

If the RBA opts to hold in November, the analysts find it difficult to envision a quick return to cutting in February. The central bank still views policy as "a little bit restrictive", suggesting a bias toward further easing eventually. But with the economy performing solidly, any decision to pause would likely be maintained for an extended period.The investment bank expects that higher rates would eventually slow conditions more than otherwise, but this wouldn't become evident to the RBA until later in 2026.

This timeline suggests any November hold could stretch well into next year.The key concern for the RBA centres on 2026 risks rather than near-term inflation pressures, according to Morgan Stanley. This distinction is important for investors positioning for the next phase of the cycle.

Market implications

Rate-sensitive sectors have been significant beneficiaries since Australia's easing cycle began, with consumer discretionary stocks, REITs and banks all enjoying positioning and valuation support.

In August, retailers delivered strong results and embraced further easing as grounds for optimism heading into the key Christmas trading period. Notable reporters included:

● JB Hi-Fi: The FY25 result was modestly ahead of consensus, with total sales up 10% to $10.5 billion and net profit up 5.4% to $462 million. A higher dividend payout ratio (from 65% to 70-80%) and 100 cents per share special dividend reflected ongoing cash generation, while July trading showed continued momentum in core divisions. However, the stock fell 8.4% on the day amid valuation concerns.

● Harvey Norman: Shares surged 11.5% on better-than-expected numbers, driven by stronger Australian franchising operations. A strong July trading update showed sales momentum outpacing JB Hi-Fi and The Good Guys for the first time in years, prompting several brokers to lift targets.

● Super Retail Group: Shares rallied 12.3% as FY25 results came in ahead of expectations. Group sales rose 4.5% to $4.1 billion, gross margin eased 50 bps to 45.6% and normalised NPAT fell 4% to $232 million. Better-than-expected margins was the key driver of the share price rally, as opposed to top line outperformance.

Australian REITs have benefited from housing exposure, consumer leverage and potential interest cost savings as hedged debt balances roll off. Banks have also found support as margin pressure concerns have eased, with focus shifting to a favourable credit cycle and asset quality.Morgan Stanley views consumer discretionary stocks and REITs as the most vulnerable sectors if the RBA pauses indefinitely, suggesting these could become funding sources for rotation into other areas.

Watching the Data

Consumer sentiment for October will provide the next important signal, with Morgan Stanley expecting a modest pullback following the slightly stronger August inflation print and the September hold. Labour market indicators warrant close attention after unemployment expectations jumped in September, though spending intentions have steadily improved in recent months.This data was released today, with consumer sentiment falling 3.5% to 92.1 in October, erasing all gains from May-August when rate cuts provided support. The index is now firmly in pessimistic territory, driven primarily by renewed inflation concerns and doubts about future rate cuts.

Assessments of family finances deteriorated sharply, with the forward-looking sub-index down nearly 10% to 97.1, the weakest in over a year. Consumers were also more downbeat on near-term prospects for the economy, with the 'economic outlook, next 12 months' sub-index down 2.5% to 89.9, the weakest read in a year.

The bottom line

The November decision represents a key moment for the RBA's easing cycle. While Morgan Stanley maintains its call for a cut, the risks are clearly tilted toward a hold that could extend well into 2026, reshaping the landscape for rate-sensitive investments that have led the market higher this year.

Source: TradingView

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Political

Prime Minister Keir Starmer will lead a delegation of more than 100 British business, academic and cultural leaders to India, as he seeks to deepen commerce between the two countries after signing a long-awaited free trade agreement.

Starmer finalized the deal with his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, in July, following three years of intense negotiations, saying it would bring “huge benefits to both of our countries” by boosting wages, raising living standards and bringing down prices for consumers.

The deal represents a vote of confidence in free trade by two of the world's biggest economies even as President Donald Trump pursues a more protectionist trade agenda in the US. For India, the agreement signals that its ready to lower trade barriers as it seeks to negotiate pacts with the US and European Union.

For the UK, the agreement reaffirms the country's commitment to the free exchange of goods and services in the wake of Brexit. The UK is hoping to negotiate similar deals with the Gulf Cooperation Council, Switzerland and Turkey.

The visit to India will be an important step for Starmer toward ensuring companies are able to access the benefits brought by the trade agreement, which removes tariffs on more than 90% of UK goods.

Speaking on a panel at Labour's annual conference last month, trade minister Chris Bryant — who was appointed to the position following Starmer's cabinet reshuffle earlier in September — said that UK governments had, in the past, failed to create enough awareness among businesses of how trade deals could work for them.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Grayscale Investments has become the first American asset manager to integrate staking into spot crypto exchange-traded products, a step that could reshape how traditional investors earn yield on digital assets.

In an Oct. 6 statement, the firm announced that staking is now available for its Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust ETF (ETH) and Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE).

The move allows holders of both products to earn staking rewards directly within their ETFs, either as reinvested gains or as cash payouts.

Grayscale said the dual-option model was designed to attract investors with different goals, including long-term compounding for those who prefer growth and direct income for those seeking liquidity.

The firm also enabled staking for its Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL). Once GSOL receives regulatory approval to uplist as a spot exchange-traded product, it would rank among the first Solana-based ETPs in the United States to support staking.

Regulatory environment

Crypto staking allows participants to lock their tokens to validate transactions and earn rewards. However, regulatory uncertainty kept US institutions from fully participating for years.

Under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the agency claimed some staking services resembled unregistered securities offerings, a stance that led to enforcement actions against firms such as Kraken.

As a result, ETF issuers reacted by removing staking options from their products to minimize compliance risks.

That position, however, has eased. Over the past year, the SEC clarified that liquid staking does not automatically constitute a securities offering when properly structured.

The shift, paired with a friendlier tone toward crypto under the Trump administration, has encouraged asset managers like Grayscale to reintroduce staking within their regulated investment structures.

Market impact

Grayscale’s move could reshape competition in the Ethereum ETF market, where investor interest has surged.

Staking yields, which average around 3.2%, may enable issuers to offset operating costs by staking a portion of their assets, potentially reducing management fees that can reach 2.5%. These lower fees could make ETH ETFs more competitive and increase adoption among institutional clients.

Additionally, this shift could reshape Ethereum’s staking ecosystem by channeling more institutional capital into staking pools and liquidity platforms. Some issuers are exploring liquid staking solutions, such as Lido’s stETH, to enhance redemption flexibility.

As of press time, about 36 million ETH, roughly 30% of Ethereum’s total supply, is staked, with Lido controlling 23% of that market.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Bond

The Ministry of Finance's auction on Tuesday comes a day after the lawmaker's victory jolted markets, sending longer-tenor yields surging. That raised the stakes for the government's first offering of debt since the vote, which will be closely watched globally after two disappointing bond sales last week revived worries about fiscal spending in major markets.

“Concerns over fiscal deterioration and potential credit downgrades have pushed long-term yields higher,” making it more likely the auction will “produce a weak result,” said Katsutoshi Inadome, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management Co.

Renewed volatility in Japanese markets, which also sent the yen plunging Monday as stocks surged, was particularly amplified on the long-end of the curve. The jump in yields may spill over to markets as far away as the US and UK, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Long-term yields climbed in the US and Germany on Monday.

Japan's 30-year yield has risen to about 3.28%, just shy of its record high. That level may attract some buyers, particularly as government has announced plans to further reduce issuance of super-long bonds, though that may not be enough to stabilize demand.

Attention will be focused on the bid-to-cover ratio when the auction results come in at 12:35 p.m. Tokyo time. At the previous 30-year bond sale in early September this key measure of demand came in at 3.31, in line with the 12-month average. The tail, or the difference between the average and lowest accepted price, will also be closely watched as a sign of investor appetite.

“Even if the coupon is high, demand for long-duration bonds may not be strong, and caution is warranted” at the auction, Miki Den, senior rates strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities Inc., wrote in a note. Takaichi's victory means that investors in super-long bonds may “take a wait-and-see stance, making it difficult for yields to fall.”

Japanese markets were surprised by the LDP election outcome, with many investors expecting a win by political scion Shinjiro Koizumi, who was seeing as adopting a more fiscally cautious approach that would allow the Bank of Japan to stay on its path of gradual rate hikes. Even before the vote, bond investors were wary, with opposition parties also calling for tax cuts.

Recent auction results have added to the caution. Two poorly received sales last week underscoring fragile sentiment and showed how Japanese super-long yields have increasingly served as a bellwether for global bond markets.

Market ructions at the start of the week suggest that investors are fleeing to shorter-maturity Japanese notes, with two- and five-year debt gaining. After Tuesday's auction, the market has to absorb new issuance of five-year bonds on Thursday.

The gap between Japan's five- and 30-year yields jumped 14 basis points to 206 basis points on Monday, further steepening a bond curve that's already the most pronounced among major developed markets.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump said he would negotiate with Democrats over health care subsidies, a move that could open the door to resolving the government shutdown that has stretched into a second week.

“We are speaking with the Democrats, and some very good things could happen with respect to health care,” Trump told reporters Monday at the White House, without naming specific lawmakers. “I’m a Republican, but I want to see health care, much more so than the Democrats.”

The comments appeared to represent a shift for the White House and Republican leaders, who have insisted that Democrats need to vote to reopen the government before they will engage in negotiations over health insurance tax credits.

“Trump’s claim isn’t true — but if he’s finally ready to work with Democrats, we’ll be at the table,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement. “If President Trump and Republicans are finally ready to sit down and get something done in healthcare for American families, Democrats will be there — ready to make it happen.”

Democrats say they will not support the bill unless it addresses Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of 2025, as well as cuts to Medicaid implemented through Trump’s signature second-term spending law.

Trump suggested that there hasn’t yet been enough political pressure on either party to end the impasse, but signaled that there could soon be “a lot of good things” that will happen. At the same time, he said that “at some point it will” trigger layoffs of federal workers if the shutdown continues much longer.

Earlier Monday, when asked if the president had spoken to Democratic senators White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt declined to say whether such conversations took place, but noted he had spoken with Republican congressional leaders.

Trump has said that he would use the shutdown to fire thousands more federal workers, who are normally furloughed during government closures.

The Senate is set to vote late Monday for the fifth time on a stopgap bill to keep the government open through Nov. 21. Kevin Hassett, a top economic adviser to Trump, argued that it was time for Democrats to be “reasonable.”

Hassett told CNBC that the president and top advisers were closely watching the Senate, which is slated to again vote Monday on a bill to fund the government. Hassett said if that bill fails, Trump’s team in the Oval Office will soon take “sharp measures.”

“If the Democrats refuse to keep the government open, then perhaps the efforts we’ve been making to make government more efficient will even accelerate,” Hassett said, in response to a question about firing federal workers.

But there were no signs of an imminent breakthrough.

On Monday, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries challenged House Speaker Mike Johnson to a debate.

“Given the urgency of the moment and the Republican refusal to negotiate a bipartisan agreement, a debate on the House floor will provide the American people with the transparency they deserve,” Jeffries said in his letter to Johnson.

Johnson declined the invitation, dismissing it as “desperate pleas for attention” from House Democrats.

Talks to end the shutdown, which began Oct. 1, sputtered at the end of last week. While Republicans control both chambers of Congress, they need support from several Democrats to get the 60 votes needed for a spending bill to clear the Senate.

Democrats insist that their health-care policy demands be added to a stopgap spending bill, while Republicans want those issues to be debated after the government is reopened. One potential solution is for Republicans to promise a vote on health-care subsides by the end of the year, but so far Republicans have been loathe to do so.

Staying Out of Town

House Republicans say they will remain out of Washington until the shutdown ends, leading Senate Democrats to complain a key negotiating partner is entirely absent. The House GOP leaders say they have nothing to do until the Senate passes the stopgap they already approved.

The shutdown has closed the government outside of essential services, left hundreds of thousands of Americans without pay and limited access to government services. Lawmakers may feel more heat as federal workers begin to miss pay on Oct. 10 and the military goes without a paycheck on Oct. 15.

So far, Senate Republicans have focused on getting five more Democrats to break with Schumer and vote for a no-strings stopgap bill keeping the government open through Nov. 21.

Republicans are taking a carrot-and-stick approach by offering soft promises of a discussion on Obamacare, or ACA, subsidies on the one hand, while threatening mass layoffs and project cancellations on the other. Specific targets of the pressure campaign include Michigan’s Gary Peters, New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan along with senators representing large numbers of federal workers like Virginia’s Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

Moderate rank-and-file Republicans are acting as a go-between to the moderate Democrats trying to convince them to re-open the government. Talks midweek led by senators who want to see some form of Obamacare subsidies extended, such as Mike Rounds of South Dakota and Susan Collins of Maine, fell apart Thursday evening but are likely to resume Monday.

One way that Republicans are trying to entice some Senate Democrats to agree to a stopgap is by offering to pair some of the regular full-year spending bills with it, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

The negotiated bills would likely contain spending levels higher than sought by the Trump administration, allowing Democrats to claim some level of victory, the person said. So far, Democrats have not dropped their core health insurance demands but talks are continuing among moderates in both parties the person said.

Johnson told reporters Monday that he had privately committed to Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the Senate spending panel, that the full House would vote on whatever full-year spending bills appropriators come up with.

Democrats Say Promises Insufficient

Democrats say they will not accept a mere promise of talks before Dec. 31 on the Obamacare issue, looking for a more substantive concession. Republicans are unwilling to even promise a vote on the matter on the House and Senate floor, saying that the issue is too complex to weigh in on now.

In 2017, Republicans tried and failed to repeal the ACA, and they have not said exactly what changes to the system they would seek. Conservatives still hold out hope they can abolish the popular law and allow a return of high-deductible health plans with limited coverage, which they say will lower medical inflation.

Obamacare is not the only core demand Democrats are making. In recent days, they have stressed the issue of the administration’s refusal to spend money allocated by Congress. Democrats say key to any agreement are provisions that would prevent the White House budget office from canceling projects and shutting agencies funded by Congress.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Political

The White House on Monday backed off President Donald Trump's assertion that U.S. government employees were being laid off "right now" due to the shutdown, but warned that job losses could result if Congress does not restore federal funding.

In the shutdown's sixth day, the Trump administration continued to raise the specter of mass firings, though none appeared to be forthcoming. Previous shutdowns have not forced the government to fire any workers, though hundreds of thousands are typically told not to work.

Trump said on Sunday night that layoffs were taking place "right now," but White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday he had been referring to those furloughed since Congress allowed funding to expire on October 1.

The White House budget office "is continuing to work with agencies on who, unfortunately, is going to have to be laid off if this shutdown continues," she said at a news briefing.

Labor unions representing federal workers have sued to prevent that from happening, arguing that such layoffs would violate a law that includes criminal penalties.

On Capitol Hill, Republicans and Democrats showed no signs they would end the standoff any time soon.

The Republican-led Senate was slated to vote again on dueling measures to fund federal agencies, though neither was expected to receive the 60 votes needed to advance.

The Republican version would fund federal agency operations through November 21, while the Democratic version would also extend healthcare subsidies due to expire at the end of the year. Republicans say that issue should be dealt with separately.

The Republican-led House of Representatives was not in session, and House Speaker Mike Johnson said he had no plans to reopen it until the government was funded.

Trump's administration has already frozen at least $28 billion in infrastructure funds for New York, California and Illinois — all home to sizable Democratic populations and critics of the president.

But Democratic leaders showed no sign of knuckling under to the White House's hardball tactics, which have caused unease among some centrist Republicans who fear the approach could make the impasse harder to overcome.

The partial shutdown, the 15th since 1981, tied for the fourth-longest in U.S. history on Monday, matching the six-day length of a 1995 shutdown. The longest shutdown lasted 35 days in 2018-2019, during Trump's first term in office.

SLOWING TO A CRAWL

While border guards, airport security screeners and other "essential" employees remained on the job without pay, other government activities ground to a halt. The Federal Register, which typically lists more than 100 proposed regulations and other notices daily, only showed four entries on Monday morning.

Pressure to end the standoff could mount next week, when 1.3 million troops and other military workers are due to miss their paychecks for the first time since the shutdown began.

Air travel could be another factor. More of the nation's 13,000 air traffic controllers have been calling in sick since the shutdown began, which could lead to flight delays, Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said. Lawmakers resolved the last shutdown in 2019 after absences of controllers and airport security screeners spiked.

Senate Democrats, who are demanding a permanent extension of federal subsidies to help people afford health insurance under the Affordable Care Act, have voted down the Republican funding bill four times.

Republican leaders need at least eight Democrats to support their funding legislation. But only two Democrats and an independent who caucuses with them have crossed the aisle so far.

Some Democrats want a deal on healthcare subsidies in place before open enrollment for next year begins on November 1.

Johnson said any solution could not be reached quickly.

"We've got probably 100 ideas for reforms on the table, but I can't snap my fingers this afternoon and make that happen," he said on the Hugh Hewitt radio show.

The standoff has frozen about $1.7 trillion in funds for agency operations, which amounts to roughly one-quarter of annual federal spending. Much of the remainder goes to health and retirement programs and interest payments on the growing $37.5 trillion debt.