US Stocks Poised to Extend Losing Streak Ahead of Jackson Hole

Economic

Stocks

Summary:

Stocks headed for a fourth straight day of declines as investors questioned sky-high valuations amid a deluge of earnings reports from retailers, with a closely watched Federal Reserve symposium to come later this week.

The S&P 500 Index was down 0.1% after the open, led by the information technology and consumer discretionary sectors. Target Corp. was the worst-performing stock in the index after the company picked an insider to lead a turnaround. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell 0.3%, extending losses after a sharp mega-cap led selloff a day earlier. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, trading near a record high.

“Stocks are expensive relative to what I call fundamentals or you might call reality,” Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.

“There hasn’t been a serious market correction in 16 years so people get out of the habit of thinking about market corrections,” he said.

Wednesday’s move comes amid a flurry of retail earnings report, which painted a mixed picture for the consumer sector. Target missed expectations while TJ Maxx parent TJX Cos. raised its full-year earnings guidance. Better-than-expected margins helped Lowe’s Cos. beat estimates for the second quarter. Elsewhere in the consumer sector, Guess? Inc. shares soared after it agreed to be taken private for $1.4 billion.

“Consumer spending is under downward pressure from slowing job growth, student loan payments restarting and deportations lowering the number of consumers,” Torsten Slok, Apollo Management’s chief economist, said in a note to clients Wednesday.

US President Donald Trump called on Fed Governor Lisa Cook to resign in a social media post on Wednesday. The demand comes a day before a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is set to begin. The annual retreat is being closely watched for clues to the central bank’s interest-rate path, highlighted by a speech from Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.

“Investors have high hopes that Jerome Powell will use Jackson Hole to set the stage for a September rate cut, given the recent weakness in the labor market,” said Carol Schleif, chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth.

Investors will get more insight into the Fed’s policy trajectory with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting minutes at 2 p.m. New York time.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Warren Takunda

Economic

UK inflation rose again last month to a higher-than-expected 3.8% amid higher food prices and travel costs, adding to fears that the Bank of England will delay further interest rate cuts.

Figures showed the annual rate as measured by the consumer prices index climbed from June’s 3.6% reading, sitting above the central bank’s 2% target for the 10th consecutive month.

That overshot financial market forecasts of a 3.7% figure for July and makes another reduction in the cost of borrowing this year unlikely, with financial markets not fully pricing in the chance of a fresh quarter-point cut until next spring.

The data also suggests rail fares are likely to rise by 5.8% next year. Increases in regulated train ticket prices are usually calculated by adding one percentage point to July’s inflation reading as measured by the retail prices index, which was 4.8%.

The Office for National Statistics said a jump in air fares was behind much of the increase in average prices. Tickets on flights out of the UK rose 30% month on month, although much of the increase was because of the earlier timing of the summer holiday break.

Petrol prices added 0.1 percentage points to inflation after a comparison with last year, when prices at the pumps were falling.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages were up 4.9% year on year in July, an increase from 4.5% in the 12 months to June. Beef, orange juice, coffee and chocolate were among the worst-hit products.

Droughts in Spain, Italy and Portugal, where the UK sources much of its fresh fruit and vegetables, have pushed up prices this summer, at a time when prices would usually fall. UK Inflation Rises by More Than Expected to 3.8% Amid Higher Food Prices_1

UK Inflation Rises by More Than Expected to 3.8% Amid Higher Food Prices_1

The increase in food prices will present the government with a difficult negotiating position as it enters talks with public sector unions over pay. Ministers are trying to limit annual earnings increases to below 4%, except for resident hospital doctors. However, higher food prices are likely to lead to demands for higher wages from staff.

Analysts said the likelihood of an interest rate cut this year had diminished but that it was not impossible.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) expects inflation to decline in the second half of the year and to fall back to the Bank’s 2% target by the end of 2026.

It said there was a strong argument for a cut in November after a rise in unemployment and decline in job vacancies showed the economy weakening, although the decision would depend on the path of inflation over the coming months.

The Niesr economist Monica George Michail said: “Given that several of the current drivers of annual price increases are one-off policy changes, we think the Bank of England may look through them and cut interest rates one more time this year. However, there remain upside risks especially from food prices and sustained wage pressures, which will force the Bank to remain cautious”

The Bank’s monetary policy committee trimmed interest rates to 4% earlier this month in line with projections of falling inflation over the next two years. However, several of its members voted to hold interest rates until the trend became clearer.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said: “We have taken the decisions needed to stabilise the public finances, and we’re a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous government, but there’s more to do to ease the cost of living.

“That’s why we’ve raised the minimum wage, extended the £3 bus fare cap, expanded free school meals to over half a million more children, and are rolling out free breakfast clubs for every child in the country. Through our plan for change we’re going further and faster to put more money in people’s pockets.”

Companies have blamed employment tax rises and the uncertainty caused by Donald Trump’s tariff war for an increase in domestic prices.

The shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, said the increase in employer national insurance contributions had forced companies to increase prices, making a global rise in prices even worse.

The energy consultancy Cornwall Insight said on Tuesday that it expected the energy price cap covering domestic electricity and gas would go up by £17 or 1% in October, adding to domestic fuel costs.

Sharon Graham, the head of Unite, the UK’s second-largest union, said the government needed to ease the pressure on household budgets after the increase in food costs.

“Once again, the soaring cost of basic essentials like food and water is pushing families to the brink. Workers and their families are struggling to pay excessive bills. Pressure needs to be taken off family budgets by giving workers a pay rise. The time for action is now.”

Source: Theguardian

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Gold extended its decline in Asian trading on Wednesday, slipping to its lowest level in nearly three weeks as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The move follows last week’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index, which climbed at the fastest pace since 2022.

The data reinforced concerns that inflationary pressures remain sticky, prompting traders to scale back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve easing.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a reduced probability of a September cut, with only gradual 25-basis-point reductions anticipated later this year. A firmer greenback has weighed heavily on non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal against interest-bearing assets.

Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand

Silver mirrored gold’s weakness, trading lower as fading expectations of rapid Fed cuts and easing geopolitical risk dented safe-haven flows. Diplomatic momentum surrounding negotiations to end the conflict in Eastern Europe has lessened the urgency for investors to hold protective assets.

“Any sign of progress in peace talks typically shifts capital away from gold and silver toward riskier assets,” said a London-based metals strategist.

Although sporadic military activity continues, the prospect of structured negotiations has been enough to curb demand for safe-haven exposure in the near term.

Markets Eye Fed Minutes and Powell Speech

Attention now turns to the release of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors are seeking clarity on the central bank’s inflation outlook and potential pace of monetary easing.

Powell’s remarks carry added weight as political pressure intensifies; former U.S. President Donald Trump recently criticized the Fed for delaying cuts, warning of potential fallout in the housing market.

Analysts suggest that any signal of a cautious stance could extend weakness in precious metals, while hints of accelerated easing might revive demand.Both gold and silver remain under pressure, caught between a resilient dollar, shifting monetary policy expectations, and evolving geopolitical dynamics.

Until clearer direction emerges from the Fed and global diplomacy, investors are likely to tread cautiously in precious metals markets.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is consolidating between $3,312 support and $3,357 resistance, while silver trades near $37.15 with downside risks toward $37.05–$36.22 unless buyers reclaim $37.40.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold steadied near $3,324 per ounce after bouncing from the $3,312 support zone, reflecting safe-haven demand amid persistent geopolitical tensions. Price action is consolidating below the 50- and 100-period EMAs ($3,336–$3,344), suggesting upside momentum remains capped unless bullion reclaims the $3,357 resistance.

RSI at 44 signals neutral momentum, keeping traders cautious. Broader uncertainty in global markets continues to anchor gold, with buyers defending key supports while upside progress faces repeated technical barriers.

Until a decisive breakout above $3,357, gold is likely to remain range-bound between $3,312 support and $3,357 resistance in the short term.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Silver extended declines to $37.15 per ounce, slipping under key support at $37.40, as technical selling pressure intensified. The metal now trades well below its 50- and 100-period EMAs ($37.80–$37.89), reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.

The next support rests near $37.05, with deeper losses exposing $36.67 and $36.22. RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in the selloff, but momentum remains weak unless silver reclaims $37.40 resistance.

Broader geopolitical unease continues to underpin safe-haven interest, though recent breakdowns show sellers in control unless a rebound emerges above $37.80.

Source: fxempire

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Adam

Forex

The morning NA session follows a quasi-dead European overnight trading.

This tends to happen when a lack of data adds to the Summer trading when volumes are typically subdued.

The Dollar Index had been in the middle of many headwinds, as per usual. After a stellar July followed by and N-shaped (for nope) downward spiral in the beginning of August, it has been difficult to spot where the Greenback is heading.

Forex volatility tends to calm during summers and lack of decisive trends exacerbate this rangebound trading – When the path is unclear, rangebound trading is typical (particularly in currencies.)

With Markets awaiting more developments after the White House gathered heads from Russia, Ukraine and the EU, the Dollar is forming a temporary bottom around the 98.00 Handle.

This region had already formed the post-Liberation day bottom (quickly broken in May).

The White House meetings went well and the US will now attempt to create a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting.

Donald Trump, the author of the Art of the Deal, is an unpredictable leader but one sure thing, he is a monster negotiator, and this is giving back some confidence in the US.

In our most recent DXY analysis, we mentioned an expectation of a more balanced Dollar as a lack of continuation upwards and a not-broken bottom show indecision.

Let's see if this indecision shall continue, at least to the technical side.

Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis

Dollar Index Daily Chart

Dollar Index Daily Chart, August 19, 2025

The US Dollar is holding its low-sloped ascending channel in a 5 day consolidation around the 98.00 handle.

The post-CPI data had created a new offer for the US Dollar as Markets rushed to price the September cut to 97% before the surprising PPI data changed the course of action.

With the future US inflation expectations rising considerably, the fundamental background for the Dollar (like its rate outlook) is more uncertain.

The Daily RSI is way into the Neutral territory and the Daily doji is an indecision one. All of this is also happening right around the 50-Day MA (currently at 98.065).

Let's have a closer look to spot what breakout points could be in play when the action picks up again.

Dollar Index 2H Chart

Such indecisive price action doesn’t warrant analysis across many timeframes – it is better in this environment to look at where we see the most.

The US Dollar (DXY) pauses at 98.00 as markets await clarity – What's next?_2

Dollar Index 2H Chart, August 19, 2025

The Dollar Index is stuck between the 97.60 Support and the 98.50 Resistance Zones.

With the Price action rebounding from the lows of the Daily upward Channel supplemented by the 2H MA 50 acting as support, it seems that the preferred path would be to the upside.

If things were so sure however, the Dollar would have risen already to test the following resistance zone.

Typically, in this environment, it is good to look at the highs (98.30) and lows of the session (97.94) to see where if the action breaks out from there.

To the upside, look at the 2H MA 200 currently at 98.515.To the downside, look at the 97.60 Support Zone, then the 97.15 July upward pivot.

Levels to place on your DXY Charts:

Resistance Levels

98.50 Pivot Zone now resistance (confluence with 2H MA 200)

Resistance 99.20 to 99.40

Main 100.00 to 100.50 Resistance

Support Levels

2H MA 50 (97.94)

97.60 Support

July Pivot before run-higher 97.15

Source: marketpulse

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The dollar fell on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump called on Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign, as investors also waited on a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday for clues on interest rate policy.

Trump cited a call by the head of the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency urging the Department of Justice to probe Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. Spokespeople for Cook and the Fed did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

“The market has voted with its pocketbook that it doesn't like when the president interferes with the Federal Reserve,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

Trump has been critical of Powell for being to slow to cut rates, and traders expect he will replace the Fed Chair with a more dovish appointment when his term ends in May.

But Powell may stay on the board of governors, which would limit how many appointments Trump may make and could crimp plans to form a more dovish composition of policymakers.

“This is just a thinly veiled attempt to get control of the Federal Reserve, because if Powell doesn't step down as Governor when his chair ends, Trump's only appointment is the Kugler seat that he gave to Miran temporarily,” Chandler said.

Trump earlier this month said he would nominate Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve out the final few months of a vacant Fed seat after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.16% on the day at 98.16, with the euroup 0.15% at $1.1664.

The Japanese yenstrengthened 0.21% against the greenback to 147.37 per dollar.

Traders are focused this week on whether Powell will push back against market expectations for a rate cut at the Fed’s September 16-17 meeting when he speaks at the U.S. central bank’s Jackson Hole meeting on Friday, following a weak jobs report for July.

Powell has said he is reluctant to cut rates on expectations that Trump’s tariff policies will increase inflation this summer.

Consumer price inflation data for July showed limited impact from tariffs but hotter than expected producer price inflation has tempered expectations for how many cuts are likely this year.

Fed funds futures traders are currently pricing in 85% odds of a cut next month, and 54 basis points of cuts by year-end.

Later on Wednesday, the Fed will issue the minutes of its July 29–30 meeting, when it held rates steady, although they may offer limited insight as the meeting came before the weak jobs numbers.

The New Zealand dollardropped 1.04% to $0.5831, a four month low, after the country’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 3.00% and flagged further reductions in coming months as policymakers warned of domestic and global headwinds to growth.

The Swedish crownstrengthened 0.1% to 9.59 after Sweden's central bank held its key interest rate at 2.00% as expected.

Sterling weakened 0.07% to $1.3481 after British inflation hit its highest in 18 months in July, but was not seen as swaying Bank of England policy.

"The BoE is more concerned about food inflation, which hasn't changed much in today's release," ING's head of research Chris Turner said.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoinfell 0.22% to $113,324.

Source: Reuters

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Winkelmann

Commodity

Forex

Political

Economic

Key points:

● China buys 15 Russian oil cargoes for October-November delivery

● Indian demand for Russian oil declines as discounts narrow in July

● Trump threatens retaliatory tariffs against Russian oil buyers

Chinese refineries have purchased 15 cargoes of Russian oil for October and November delivery as Indian demand for Moscow's exports falls away, two analysts and one trader said on Tuesday.India has emerged as the leading buyer of Russian seaborne oil, which has sold at a discount since some Western nations shunned purchases and imposed restrictions on Russian exports over Moscow's 2022invasion of Ukraine.Indian state refiners paused Russian oil purchases last month, however, as those discounts narrowed. And U.S. PresidentDonald Trumpis also threatening to punish countries for buying Russian crude.

China had secured 15 Russian Urals cargoes for October–November delivery by the end of last week, said Richard Jones, a Singapore-based crude analyst at Energy Aspects.

Each Urals cargo ranges in size from 700,000 to 1 million barrels.

Kpler senior analyst Xu Muyu wrote in an August 14 report that China has likely purchased about 13 cargoes of Urals and Varandey crude for October delivery, along with at least two Urals cargoes for November.The additional Russian Urals supply could curb Chinese refiners' appetite for Middle Eastern crude, which is $2 to $3 per barrel more expensive, Xu said.This, in turn, could add further pressure to the Dubai market which is already losing momentum as seasonal demand fades while competition from arbitrage supply intensifies, she added.

A trade source agreed with Kpler's estimate, adding that the cargoes were booked mostly at the beginning of this month by Chinese state-owned and independent refineries.China, the world's top oil importer and largest Russian oil buyer, primarily buys ESPO crude exported from the Russian Far East port of Kozmino due to its proximity. Its year-to-date imports of Urals crude stood at 50,000 barrels per day, Kpler data showed.

Urals and Varandey crude are typically shipped to India, Kpler data showed.

Indian state-refiners have backed out Russian crude imports by approximately 600,000 to 700,000 bpd, according to Energy Aspects' Jones."We do not expect China to absorb all of the additional Russian volumes, as Urals is not a baseload grade for Chinese majors," he said, referring to Chinese state refineries which are not designed to solely process the Russian grade.Chinese refiners will also be wary about the possibility of U.S. secondary sanctions if Trump's push for a Ukraine peace deal breaks down, he added.

Trump said on Friday he did not immediately need to consider retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil but might have to "in two or three weeks".

Source: TradingView

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Adam

Economic

U.S. stock futures slipped lower Wednesday ahead of the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting. Target heads up a deluge of earnings from the important retail sector, while semiconductors will also be in the spotlight as the U.S. government weighs up taking stakes in the sector. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is also reportedly shelving his political ambitions.

Fed minutes could show divisions

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of the week, but investors may not have to wait until then for clues about the central bank’s next move as the minutes of the last meeting are due later in the session.

The Fed has maintained its policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range for all of this year, with some policymakers, and Powell in particular, expressing worries that the Trump administration’s tariffs could reignite inflation.

However, this stance has resulted in severe criticism from President Donald Trump, and some Fed officials have recently broken ranks, calling for lower interest rates.

These minutes could show how deep divisions run after Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented at the last meeting, marking the first time two voting Fed officials have done so since 1993.

Investors and economists are betting the Fed will cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point next month with perhaps another reduction of similar size to come later in the year.

The annual Jackson Hole gathering kicks off with informal interviews ahead of the formal agenda release Thursday evening. Powell’s key address on Friday morning will focus on the economic outlook.

U.S. futures fall ahead of Fed minutes

U.S. stock futures slipped lower Wednesday, with investors cautiously awaiting the release of minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting as well as earnings from a number of major retailers.

At 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT), the S&P 500 futures traded 12 points, or 0.2%, lower Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 75 points, or 0.3%, and Dow futures fell 85 points, or 0.2%.

The major indices closed in a mixed fashion Tuesday, with the S&P 500 falling 0.6% and the NASDAQ Composite dropping 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed marginally higher.

Investors are likely to trade in a cautious manner Wednesday ahead of the key release of minutes from the last Fed policy meeting [see above] as they seek clues about future monetary policy ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium later in the week.

There are also more quarterly earnings due from a number of major retailers, including Target [see below], Lowe’s and TJX before the bell.

U.S. companies have posted their strongest earnings beats in more than three years during the second quarter, according to an analysis by Jefferies, adding that the “difference between actual & consensus earnings growth is 12.3%, the widest spread since 1Q’22.”

U.S. government looking at semiconductor equity stakes

The U.S. government is weighing taking equity stakes in semiconductor firms receiving CHIPS Act subsidies to build factories in the country, according to a Reuters report.

Apart from Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is also exploring deals with Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) and Samsung (KS:005930) that would see Washington secure ownership interests in return for billions in grants, the report said.

The move would mark a historic shift in U.S. industrial policy, giving the government direct influence over companies key to national security. The White House has already confirmed talks with Intel on a potential 10% stake.

Washington last year allocated $6.6 billion to TSMC, $6.2 billion to Micron and $4.75 billion to Samsung, according to the report.

Target’s results in spotlight

Target (NYSE:TGT) heads the earnings flow Wednesday, as the focus remains on the retail sector this week, with reports due from a host of big-box retailers and home improvement chains.

The struggling retailer reports fiscal second-quarter earnings before the bell, with investors looking for signs that it is getting back on track given annual sales have been roughly stagnant for about four years.

Wall Street expects the big-box retailer to report earnings per share of $2.03 and revenue of $24.93 billion for the last quarter, according to a survey of analysts by LSEG.

“We see increasing longer-term sales and margin risks for Target given slowing digital sales growth, a lack of scale in digital advertising and third-party marketplace, elevated tariff, pricing and merchandising headwinds, and increasing competitive threats from Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN),” analysts at Bank of America said, in a note late last week.

Investors will also look for what the retailer says regarding tariffs, as Target’s imports account for roughly 50% of its cost of goods sold, versus Walmart’s 33%.

Home Depot (NYSE:HD) was the first of the major big-box retailers to report this week, with the U.S. home-improvement chain keeping its annual forecasts intact despite posting muted quarterly results on Tuesday.

Earnings are also due from Lowe’s Companies (NYSE:LOW) and TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) before the open.

Musk shelving political ambitions - WSJ

Elon Musk is quietly shelving his plans to start a political party, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal, a move that will likely be welcomed by Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shareholders.

The Tesla CEO had in July said he would start a new party, called the America Party, to represent voters unhappy with both the Republicans and the Democrats.

This followed a major falling out with U.S. President Donald Trump, largely over Musk’s criticism of Trump’s “big beautiful bill,” which he claimed would undermine his efforts to cut government spending as part of the Department of Government Efficiency.

However, Musk has since made few actual moves towards establishing the third party, and the WSJ reported Musk as telling allies that he wants to focus his attention more on his companies, and is reluctant to alienate powerful Republicans .

Any sidelining of Musk’s political ambitions is expected to offer some relief to Tesla shareholders, who had grown increasingly concerned that he was becoming distracted from his responsibilities at the electric car-maker.