US Stocks Hang Near Their Records as Tech Keeps Climbing

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Wall Street hovered near record highs Monday as tech stocks, led by a 32.6% surge in AMD after an OpenAI chip deal, drove gains.

Wall Street is hanging near its records on Monday, as technology stocks keep rising.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, coming off its latest all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 17 points, or less than 0.1%, as of 9:35 a.m. Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was 0.4% higher.

Advanced Micro Devices soared 32.6% to help lead the market after announcing a deal where OpenAI will use its chips to power artificial-intelligence infrastructure. As part of the deal, OpenAI could own up to 160 million shares of AMD if it hits certain milestones.

A frenzy around AI has been one of the main reasons Wall Street has been hitting record after record, though that’s also raising worries that prices have potentially shot too high. Much of the furor around AI in the last couple weeks has come from OpenAI, which has quickly become a $500 billion company, announcing deals with businesses around the world to develop more AI infrastructure.

Another chip company, Nvidia, announced a deal last month where it would invest $100 billion in OpenAI as part of a partnership, creating criticism that the AI investment pipeline was beginning to appear like a circle. Nvidia fell 1.5% following the AMD announcement.

Outside of tech, Comerica jumped 16.5% after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy its rival in an all-stock deal valued at $10.9 billion. The combination would create the country’s ninth-largest bank. Fifth Third added 1%.

Government shutdown

The AP has journalists around the country covering the shutdown of the federal government. What questions do you have for them?

Elsewhere on Wall Street, trading remained relatively quiet as the stock market continues to largely ignore the U.S. government’s shutdown. Past closures of the federal government have had minimal effect on the stock market or on the economy, and the bet on Wall Street is that something similar will happen again.

Politics are playing a more active role in stock markets abroad, though, as Japanese stocks soared and French stocks slumped following their latest political shake-ups.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 4.8% after the country’s Liberal Democratic Party chose Sanae Takaichi as its leader and likely Japan’s first woman prime minister. She was an ally of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who pushed for lower interest rates and market-friendly policies.

The yen’s value dropped against the U.S. dollar on expectations that Takaichi will boost spending, likely adding to inflationary pressures. That in turn helped push up stocks of Japanese exporters, whose products can become more attractive on the global market because of a cheaper yen.

“Obviously, investors like what she has been saying and certainly today judging by the number of stocks that moved and which stocks moved, it seems like pretty much led by foreigners so far,” Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan, said about Takaichi.

In Paris, the CAC 40 index slumped 1.2% following the resignation of France’s new prime minister.

Sébastien Lecornu resigned a day after he named his government, drawing a backlash across the political spectrum for his choice of ministers. French politics have been in disarray since President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections last year that produced a deeply fragmented legislature.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.16% from 4.13% late Friday.

The shutdown of the U.S. government means fewer economic data releases this week, though markets will have some earnings reports to comb through, including from Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo and Levi Strauss.

Despite the shutdown, the Federal Reserve will release minutes from its meeting last month when it cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time this year.

Source: AP

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

What happened last week

Government shutdown disrupts data: The Congress failed to agree before the deadline, triggering the US government's 15th shutdown since 1980 on 1 October. Equity markets demonstrated resilience, consistent with historical patterns. However, federal department suspension delayed critical indicators including weekly jobless claims, September's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, potentially complicating Federal Reserve (Fed) policy deliberations.

Labour market signals deceleration: With official employment statistics unavailable, market participants scrutinised private surveys. The ADP employment report registered a 32,000 decline in private payrolls, while Challenger, Gray & Christmas data revealed concurrent declines in recruitment and redundancies. Short-dated Treasury securities rallied as markets elevated October rate cut probabilities.

China's PMI presents mixed signals: September's purchasing managers' index revealed manufacturing improvement alongside services deceleration. Export order demand demonstrated recovery, though sustainability remains questionable as the US-China trade truce deadline approaches. Corporate margins face pressure as output price deflation persists but input costs rise.

Japan's race for prime minister: USD/JPY encountered resistance at 150 before declining to 146.6 ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election. Should Sanae Takaichi secure victory, she would become Japan's first female prime minister, though her loose monetary policy stance may steepen the JGB yield curve and weaken yen. Shinjiro Koizumi and Yoshimasa Hayashi remain prominent contenders.

Markets in focus

US equities resilient amid government shutdown

Major US equity indices continued their upward trajectory last week, establishing fresh historic highs following the previous week's consolidation. Market reactions to tariff announcements on lumber and furniture imports, alongside the government shutdown, proved muted. Conversely, deteriorating labour market indicators strengthened anticipation of Fed rate reductions, with markets now pricing 98% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October—more dovish than many Fed governors have indicated.

Tesla reported record quarterly electric vehicle (EV) sales, though the 7.4% year-on-year increase appeared modest compared to competitors. General Motors registered EV sales growth exceeding 100%, whilst Ford achieved 30% expansion. The widespread uptake reflected consumers' efforts to secure purchases before the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit elimination. Tesla shares declined 6% since Thursday, reversing earlier gains from investors' optimism regarding future offerings including robotaxi services and humanoid robotics.

The technical charts of the US Tech 100 reveal recent price movements have been dominated by the ascending channel established from mid-May. However, a bearish relative strength index (RSI) divergence pattern has emerged, indicating possible downward momentum shift in the near future. Should the index fail to find support from the channel's lower boundary at around 24,500, this opens the possibility of testing previous support at 23,000. Conversely, upside is likely to encounter resistance from the channel's upper boundary at 25,500.

Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart

as of 4 Oct 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Hang Seng re-attempts 27,000 challenge

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) outperformed most major global equity indices, delivering 3.9% weekly gains. The index retested the 27,000 level last week after briefly reaching this threshold in mid-September. Sustained momentum above 27,000 remains uncertain as trading volumes have diminished during the National Day Golden Week holiday, when mainland Chinese investors remain inactive. Southbound flows have accounted for approximately 25% of Hong Kong equity market turnover in recent months.

Technology sector leadership drove last week's rally. SMIC advanced 25% following multiple sell-side analyst target price upgrades reflecting robust artificial intelligence (AI) growth prospects. Kuaishou surged 17% after the video platform launched its Kling AI 2.5 Turbo Video Model, generating optimism regarding new AI-generated content revenue streams.

Zijin Gold International, the overseas business spin-off from Zijin Mining, raised $3.2 billion through its Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO). The share price surged over 60% on debut, supported by record gold prices and investor enthusiasm for newly listed securities.

From a technical perspective, the HSI's ascending channel established since mid-April continues to govern price movement. Following the breach above the trend line connecting local peaks from October 2024 and March 2025, upside potential extends towards 27,600, represented by the channel's upper boundary. Retracements would likely find support at the 20-day moving average (MA) at 26,404.

Figure 2: Hang Seng Index (daily) price chart

as of 3 Oct 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Gold eyes $3900 level

Gold delivered exceptional performance of 12% in September, representing the strongest monthly return since 2011. Prices briefly touched $3895 on 1 October before retreating to current levels, registering impressive year-to-date gains of 47%.

The recent rally stems from multiple catalysts: market expectations of rate reductions, heightened geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East, and most recently, uncertainties surrounding the US government shutdown. Demand from central banks and investors remained robust, with physically-backed gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) attracting $13.6 billion net inflows over the past four weeks, establishing September as the record month for net inflows.

Gold's technical momentum aligns with Elliott Wave theory's Wave 5, with a 100% Fibonacci extension of Wave 1 from November 2024 establishing a target near $3,979. However, the RSI of 82 signals overbought conditions for traders. While this does not necessarily mean the rally is over, it does suggest a period of consolidation could develop. Recent rejection just below the $3900 psychological resistance level confirms this assessment. Retracements should find support at the 20-day MA around $3555.

Figure 3: Spot gold (daily) price chart

as of 3 Oct 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The week ahead

This week delivers critical insights into US labour market resilience and consumer confidence, alongside corporate earnings that will test economic narratives around consumer spending and business investment. However, the release schedule remains contingent on resolution of the US federal government shutdown, which suspended last week's critical employment data. September's non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate await publication once normal operations resume, while this week's scheduled releases including initial jobless claims similarly depend on the shutdown's conclusion.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Thursday morning (HK time) will provide essential detail on policymakers' September deliberations, particularly regarding the pace and magnitude of future rate adjustments. Fed Chair Powell's speech later that evening assumes heightened significance, as investors seek clarity on whether recent economic data warrants recalibrating the central bank's easing trajectory.

Should the government shutdown end, US initial jobless claims data on Thursday will offer a timely assessment of labour market conditions. The delayed September non-farm payrolls figure, for which consensus expects 50,000 following the disappointing 22,000 August reading, will prove particularly consequential for October's monetary policy decision. Any material deviation from expectations could reshape rate cut probability and intensify market volatility.

Australia's economic sentiment indicators will shape Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy considerations, following the central bank's decision to maintain the cash rate at 3.6%. The Board noted signs that private demand is recovering and indications that inflation may persist in some areas. Tuesday's Westpac consumer confidence reading will reveal whether recent economic headwinds are dampening sentiment, potentially influencing the RBA's assessment of whether its gradual easing path remains appropriate.

Source: ig

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Economic

Stocks

J.P. Morgan upgraded its stance on the euro zone to "overweight" from "neutral" on Monday, noting that the equities in the region have become more attractive after several months of underperformance and policy support.

"The time is coming up to turn bullish on Eurozone equities," J.P. Morgan strategists, led by Mislav Matejka said.Euro Stoxx 50 (.STOXX50), has trailed the S&P 500 (.SPX), by nearly 18% since a strong first-quarter rally, but this relative underperformance could be used as a buying opportunity, Matejka said.The strategists noted that with relatively cheaper valuations than their U.S. counterparts, and potential catalysts such as German stimulus, and improving euro zone credit impulse, could renew sentiment in the region.

The 15% tariff on European Union goods has also put to rest one of the major overhangs on the region's equities, J.P. Morgan said.

The brokerage retained its positive stance on European defense stocks, as it expects capital expenditure to be constructive and boost parts of industrials, construction materials and utilities.

While the uncertainty in France could create an overhang, Matejka said, "We would use the weakness to buy, as we believe that any pressure will not be long-lasting."

The potential uptick in earnings and rise in share buybacks could also help underpin the euro zone's more optimistic outlook heading into next year.

The Wall Street brokerage reiterated its year-end target of 5,800 for the Euro Stoxx 50. The index is up 10.4% year-to-date, according LSEG data.

Source: Kitco

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Last year Kemi Badenoch entered the Conservative Party conference competing with three of her Tory rivals for the leadership. As winner of that contest, this time around she confronts a more formidable foe: irrelevance.Since losing two-thirds of its seats in last year’s general election, dire poll ratings and defections have humbled the once-dominant party of UK government. If a vote were held today, a recent opinion survey showed, they’d collapse to fourth, trailing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party, the governing Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats.

Rebuilding after 2024’s ballot-box rejection was always going to test Rishi Sunak’s successor. But doubts over Badenoch’s ability to lead the fightback mean she still has to guard against the mutinous instincts that led her party to cycle through five leaders in a decade.Should pollsters’ predictions hold at May’s local elections — her next test at the ballot box — many in the shadow cabinet speculate she will be replaced soon after, according to those who spoke to Bloomberg, asking for anonymity to share their views freely.

If rivals lack a greater zeal to depose her ahead of that, it’s because of skepticism that it would make any difference. Speaking before this year’s conference in Manchester, which got under way on Sunday, several of Badenoch’s colleagues voiced the concern that voters may be unlikely to return to them after just one term out of office.The next election isn’t due until 2029 and competing ever more successfully for former Conservative voters’ attention is Reform, which has succeeded in monopolizing the right-wing of British politics far more adeptly than its five parliamentary seats would suggest. That number had been four before a defection from the Conservatives.

In recent weeks, Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to cast the next election as a head-to-head between his party and Reform. If voters buy into his framing, the Tories will find it harder to turn around their dire opinion-poll ratings.In interviews on the opening day of the conference, Badenoch — the first woman from an ethnic minority — to lead the party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher — urged patience on her colleagues. “The election is not tomorrow,” she told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. “Nothing good comes quickly or fast. And it will pay off,” she said, insisting she had a plan.

Her party came out with hard lines on migration, which has eclipsed the economy in recent polls of voter concerns. She pledged to annually deport 150,000 people “who shouldn’t be here,” while declining to elaborate where they will go.Tomorrow in his speech, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Mel Stride will identify what he says are £47 billion ($63 billion) of potential budget cuts, with almost half of that made up from slashing the welfare bill. Another £7 billion would be hacked off the foreign aid budget — almost half of current spending in an area that’s already suffered cuts to 0.5% of economic output from 0.7%.

The party’s challenge will be convincing voters it can tackle problems that went unaddressed over a 14-year stretch in government.

Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the Tories had “suddenly discovered a zeal for reform that they did not have when they were in office,” pointing to their failure to enforce secure borders: migrant crossings in small boats from France were virtually non existent in 2017, but had soared to more than 45,000 a year by 2022. Meanwhile, an effort to deport arrivals to Rwanda never got off the ground. It’s an issue Labour, too, are struggling to deal with.Several of Badenoch’s colleagues — both in her cabinet and the back benches — said they fear more high-profile defections to Reform, which has already claimed Tory former cabinet ministers in Nadine Dorries and Jake Berry. In her interview Kemi denigrated the insurgent right-wing party as a “one-man band.”

If Badenoch were challenged for the leadership of her party, erstwhile rival Robert Jenrick is a frontrunner but four of his colleagues voiced skepticism that he will do better against Farage. He’ll be Farage-lite, one said: and voters who want that kind of politics will just vote for the Reform leader himself.The other candidate on the up is Katie Lam, the 33-year old Goldman Sachs alumnus who is also on the right on immigration but — having won election in 2024 — has the advantage of not being associated with the old guard.

Some party centrists believe there to be an opportunity for a leader who can tack against the Tories’ current rightward shift and pivot back toward the center-ground to take advantage of Labour’s own collapse. There are also Liberal Democrat voters to be won back there: Ed Davey’s party took 60 seats off the Conservatives last year, and recent polls suggest they can win more next time around.

“Polls are not elections,” Badenoch said in her interview. Hers is not the only UK party nervously repeating this mantra.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Michelle

Economic

Forex

Consumer concerns about inflation have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest U.S. Consumer Pulse Survey, even as analysts warn that tariffs could still lead to future price pressures.

In the bank’s 69th monthly survey of around 2,000 consumers conducted between Sept. 25 and 29, 56% of respondents cited inflation as their top concern, down from 60% in August and 63% a year earlier.

“While inflation remains the number one concern for consumers over the next 12 months, the proportion of consumers reporting it as their primary concern has dropped to the lowest level since 2022,” Morgan Stanley said.

The firm cautioned that the improvement might be premature. “Tariff price pass-through is likely not yet complete,” analysts wrote, noting that more than two-thirds of affected firms have yet to raise prices or expect further increases.

The bank’s analysis of corporate transcripts also found that companies are “increasingly discussing flexing pricing power to mitigate the impact of tariffs.”

Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has also improved.

Morgan Stanley said thirty-six percent of respondents expect the economy to improve over the next six months, up from 33% last month, while those expecting conditions to worsen fell to 46% from 49%.

Morgan Stanley said this marks a “notable improvement from -16% last month,” though confidence remains below January highs.

The survey also highlighted the growing role of inheritance in household finances, with 17% of consumers having received one and 14% expecting to.

Morgan Stanley said inheritances are “primarily used for savings, retirement, or investments,” underscoring their link to long-term financial security.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

French markets tumbled after the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu threw the country into another political crisis, raising the prospect of snap elections to break the deadlock.

French bonds fell, with 10-year yields jumping as much as 11 basis points to 3.61%. That left the premium that investors are demanding to hold French debt over Germany at the highest level this year. The CAC 40 Index lost 1.5% as banks took the biggest hit. The euro weakened 0.7% against the dollar.

The resignation is the latest step in a long-running political crisis in France, which has prompted the downfall of a number of prime ministers and roiled the nation’s assets. The key problem successive premiers have faced is having to pass a budget through a fractured parliament that includes unpopular spending cuts and tax increases to rein in the largest deficit in the euro area.

French Markets Sink Amid Growing Fears of Political Paralysis_1

“To lose one prime minister is unfortunate, but four looks like a major crisis,” wrote Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group. “The real worry will be that the procession of prime ministers unable to govern will at some point force the resignation of President Macron, which would cause the crisis to intensify significantly.”

France’s Lecornu Set to Speak After Resigning as PM: TOPLive

French bonds were once viewed as a haven investment of a similar order to Triple-A rated German notes. Now, 10-year yields are among the highest in the euro area. Fitch Ratings cut its credit assessment to A+ from AA- just days after Lecornu took office, moving France a notch lower than the UK, to the same level as Belgium.

Some analysts cautioned against making any political speculation based on market swings. Macron still has options ahead of him. He can name a new prime minister, who would then need to propose a fresh cabinet or he could call a parliamentary election. Another potential scenario is that he resigns himself — something he’s previously said he won’t do.

For investors, the key metric to watch has become the French-German bond spread — a measure of risk between what’s perceived as Europe’s safest country and one of its riskiest. The gap is likely to keep widening to 100 basis points, said Nicolas Forest, chief investment officer at Candriam.

“There’s no panic in the market, but clearly some investors are selling,” he said. “The probability of a dissolution of the National Assembly is more likely.”

What Bloomberg Strategists say...

“French government bonds will likely fall further from here as another prime minister succumbs to the lack of political will to tackle the deficit, raising the likelihood of another election to break the political deadlock.

—Conor Cooper, Macro Squawk. Click here to read the full analysis French banks bore the brunt of the equity selloff. European banks are particularly vulnerable to swings in French debt.

Their exposure to French sovereign bonds was around €500 billion ($583 billion) a year ago, according to data from the EBA’s 2024 EU-wide transparency exercise published last November, cited by Bloomberg Intelligence. This represented 23% of total sovereign bonds held by EU banks, more than any other country in the region.

French Markets Sink Amid Growing Fears of Political Paralysis_2

Societe Generale SA, Credit Agricole SA and BNP Paribas SA fell more than 5%. A Barclays Plc basket tracking stocks that generate more than 30% of their revenue in France dropped 3.8%. Even so, the balance sheets of the country’s banks are still strong, said Rafael Quina, senior director of financial institutions at Fitch Ratings.

“It’s a clear knee-jerk market move,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “I’m not that concerned for my portfolio of French stocks as their business outside of France will compensate if activity slows domestically.”

About 80% of the CAC 40’s sales are generated overseas, according to data from Citigroup Inc., implying a low earnings risk to companies such as LVMH, Sanofi SA and TotalEnergies SE.

French Markets Sink Amid Growing Fears of Political Paralysis_3

Still, Paris-listed stocks have lagged the rest of Europe. The benchmark CAC 40 is up just 7.6% this year, compared with a 12% rally in the broader Stoxx 600 Index.

“It’s not clear if it will get much worse. It depends of upcoming political discussions,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions in Paris. “But today, of course, it’s a surprise and a shock.”

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Blue River

Technical Analysis

Domestic politics dominated global markets today, driving sharp moves in both European and Asian trading sessions. In Europe, political instability in France rattled sentiment, while in Japan, optimism over new leadership sparked a broad equity surge and a dramatic selloff in the Yen.

In European, CAC 40 slumped and Euro is sold off broadly, after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his newly formed government resigned just hours after unveiling their cabinet lineup. The collapse, just 14 hours after formation, deepened France’s ongoing political turmoil and marked the shortest-lived administration in modern history.

Lecornu cited the impossibility of governing amid threats from both coalition partners and the opposition to topple his government. The fallout was immediate, with opposition parties calling on President Macron to resign or trigger early elections. The episode underscores growing public fatigue and political fragmentation that risk eroding investor confidence in French assets.

Yet, Yen’s dramatic selloff overshadowed Europe’s turmoil. The currency plunged below 150 per dollar for the first time since early August and touched a record low versus Euro, as Japanese equities soared. Traders rushed into risk assets, betting that Prime Minister-designate Sanae Takaichi’s incoming administration will prioritize fiscal expansion and encourage continued BoJ accommodation.

The move rippled across bond markets, sending short-term JGB yields to two-week lows as traders cut back expectations for further tightening. Market pricing for a BoJ hike by year-end fell sharply to near 40% from 68% at the end of last week, as confidence grew that the central bank will stay on hold through October.

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone in recent weeks aligns with this view, suggesting that policymakers see little urgency to resume tightening. With political stability and fiscal stimulus prospects improving, investors appear comfortable re-engaging in carry trades, accelerating Yen’s decline.

For now, Dollar leads as the day’s strongest performer, followed by Loonie and Aussie. At the other end, Yen remains the weakest, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc, while Sterling and Kiwi hover mid-pack in largely risk-driven trade.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.15%. DAX is up 0.25%. CAC is down -1.27%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.044 at 4.739. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 2.723. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 4.75%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.67%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.52%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.015 to 1.680.

ECB’s Lane: No pre-commitment on rate path, policy to stay data-driven

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reiterated in a speech today that monetary policy will remain data-driven and meeting-by-meeting, with “no pre-commitment to a particular rate path.” He emphasized said the ECB’s policy decisions will hinge not only on the baseline inflation forecast but also on “shifts in the risk distribution”.

The downside inflation risks outlined in September include a stronger Euro, weaker export demand caused by higher global tariffs, and the possibility of rising market volatility linked to trade tensions.

Conversely, Lane highlighted several upside risks that could keep inflation elevated. These include “fragmentation of global supply chains”; surge in defence and infrastructure spending that boosts medium-term demand; and climate-related disruptions.

He elaborated that persistent Euro movements tends to have “multi-year impact” on both inflation and growth, with the size of the impact depending on its source. Appreciation stemming from external weakness or capital flows tends to depress inflation more sharply. On the other hand, changes driven by domestic demand strength or domestic risk premiums carry a smaller inflationary force.

Eurozone Sentix rises to -5.4, mood brightens from exaggerated pessimism

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone improved in October, with Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising from -9.2 to -5.4, topping forecasts of -7.7. Current Situation Index advanced from -18.8 to -16.0, while Expectations climbed sharply from 0.8 to 5.8.

Sentix said the latest data initially looks like the long-awaited economic turning point, with strong improvements seen across Germany, Austria, and Switzerland as well. However, it cautioned that the improvement may not mark a lasting turnaround. Most country-level readings and the Eurozone composite still sit below August’s levels, implying that September’s pessimism was “negatively exaggerated”.

Meanwhile, Sentix also noted that inflation remains a key worry, with its related index barely rising to -17.75. Still, markets appear to expect that the ECB will maintain a steady policy stance, and perhaps even lean slightly supportive, despite mounting fiscal pressures. Sentix warned that such expectations may have a “limited half-life,” as growing debt levels and persistent inflation could restrain the scope for policy easing in the months ahead.

Eurozone retail sales edge up 0.1% mom in August, momentum muted

Eurozone retail sales rose 0.1% mom in August, matching expectations and signaling only a modest pickup in consumer activity. The increase was driven by 0.3% rise in food, drinks, and tobacco sales and 0.4% gain in automotive fuel, partly offset by a -0.1% decline in non-food product demand.

Across the wider European Union, retail sales were flat on the month. Among member states, Lithuania (+1.7%), Cyprus and Malta (+1.5%), and Sweden (+1.1%) posted the strongest gains, while Romania (-4.0%), Poland (-0.8%), and Luxembourg and Portugal (both -0.7%) recorded notable declines.

BoJ report highlights resilient recovery but tariffs cloud wage, capex outlook

The BoJ’s Regional Economic Report released today painted a mixed picture of recovery, with assessments for eight regions left unchanged and one downgraded. Most local economies were described as “recovering moderately” or “picking up” .

Businesses in some areas reported that they may scale back wage hikes if tariffs begin to bite into profits, a risk that could slow Japan’s nascent wage-led inflation. Still, several regions pointed to ongoing wage pressures from tight labor markets and rising living costs, suggesting that the underlying trend in income growth remains intact for now.

The survey also revealed continued commitment to capital investment, particularly in automation and IT-related projects, as firms seek efficiency gains. However, a number of companies plan to delay or reassess spending amid uncertainty over global demand and the evolving impact of tariffs.

WTI oil recovers ahead of 60 after OPEC+ opts for measured output hike

Oil prices recovered modestly in today after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed a small production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, matching the rise announced for October. The restrained decision eased fears of a larger supply boost.

Following Sunday’s ministerial meeting, OPEC+ said the move was made “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals.” The statement emphasized low global inventories as evidence that supply-demand conditions remain tight enough to justify a gradual output approach.

The limited hike contrasts with speculation that major producers—particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia—might push for a faster restoration of supply to reclaim market share. Instead, the decision reflects caution amid volatile demand signals and lingering uncertainty over global growth.

Technically, for WTI oil, some consolidations would be seen above 60.62 temporary low for the near term. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 63.49 minor resistance holds.

Break of 60.62 will resume the whole decline from 78.87. Next target is 100% projection of 71.34 to 61.90 from 66.70 at 57.26. However, firm break of 63.49 will bring stronger rebound back to 66.70 resistance instead.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8704; (P) 0.8717; (R1) 0.8727;

EUR/GBP’s fall from 0.8750 resumed by breaking through 0.8688 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8631 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, though, above 0.8728 will bring retest of 0.8750 first. Firm break there will resume the larger rally towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8539) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.