U.S. Records Lower-than-expected 7.18M Job Openings In July

On 22 July 2025, the White House issued the Joint Statement on Framework for US–Indonesia Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, which provided additional detail about a trade deal announced earlier by US President Donald Trump on his Truth Social network.Under the agreement, Indonesia is expected to eliminate 99 per cent of tariff barriers for US goods entering the country and purchase US$15 billion in US oil and gas, US$4.5 billion in US cultural products and approximately US$3.2 billion in aircraft. US imports of all goods from Indonesia will be subject to a 19 per cent tariff.

Hasan Nasbi, a spokesperson for Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, stated that Indonesia has negotiated a better deal compared to other Asian countries, even surpassing Vietnam, which faced a 20 per cent tariff. But the headline tariff numbers do not tell the whole story.

Claiming that Indonesia secured a better deal than Vietnam is misleading, largely because it fails to consider the structural differences between the two economies, especially when it comes to the nature of their respective manufacturing sectors. In 2023, the top three categories of Vietnamese exports to the United States were electrical equipment (37 per cent), machinery, nuclear reactors and boilers (10 per cent), and furniture and prefabricated buildings (9 per cent). Indonesia’s top three exports to the United States were articles of apparel (19 per cent), electrical equipment (15 per cent) and animal, vegetable fats and oils (8 per cent).

Though electrical equipment is among the top three export commodities for both Vietnam and Indonesia, the value of Vietnam electrical equipment exports to the United States is seven times greater than that of Indonesia’s.‘High-intensity’ tech products accounted for 37.9 per cent of Vietnam’s exports to the United States in 2023, while 32 per cent of Indonesia’s exports to the United States were primary products. Unlike Indonesia, Vietnam’s focus on high-value manufactured goods allows it to be more integrated into global supply chains. Vietnam’s important position in the electronic global supply chain is also evidenced by large investments in the country by suppliers like Foxconn, Pegatron and Intel.

In 2024, Vietnam outshined Malaysia and Thailand as a manufacturing powerhouse, driven by strong demand for electronics, smartphones, clothing and agricultural commodities. The United States is likely to continue purchasing from Vietnam due to its emerging role as a hub for electronic manufacturing. The Trump administration imposed a 20 per cent tariff on Vietnamese goods to encourage US companies to consider Vietnam as an alternative to China for manufacturing and trade.A 40 per cent tariff was also imposed on goods transshipped through Vietnam, aiming to reduce US reliance on Chinese supply chains, particularly in strategic sectors such as electronics and semiconductors. This policy also seeks to reduce Vietnam’s dependence on Chinese upstream components. This strategy appears to be nascent, as Hanoi actively diversifies its electronic supply chain — for both intermediary and finished products — by welcoming significant contributions from South Korea (27 per cent), Taiwan (9 per cent) and Japan (7 per cent).

The zero-tariff status enjoyed by US goods imported to Indonesia also poses serious threats to Indonesia’s food and poultry sectors, primarily due to the country’s lack of competitiveness. The potential influx of US agricultural products into Indonesia, free of tariff barriers, will make it even harder for President Prabowo to achieve his signature policy objective of food self-sufficiency, and may also lead to increased unemployment and poverty among local farmers.Under the tariff deal ‘framework’ announced by the White House on 22 July, Indonesia is expected to lift its bans on raw mineral exports for the United States, which could potentially undermine its high-profile policy of downstream industrial development. To date, the Indonesian government has remained firm in ruling out raw mineral exports to the United States, but it remains to be seen whether Jakarta can uphold its downstreaming agenda in the face of US pressure.

There are clear indications that Washington is attempting to link the tariff discussions with geopolitical issues. Jakarta is committed to fostering strategic cooperation with Washington and enhancing maritime border surveillance in the South China Sea (SCS). The United States also urges Indonesia to expedite ratification of the Indonesia-Vietnam Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) agreement.

The Trump administration appears to be pressuring Indonesia to ensure its SCS policy aligns with US interests, diminishing China’s influence in the region. Ratification of the Indonesia–Vietnam EEZ agreement would signify Jakarta’s rejection of China’s claims in the SCS and the notion of ‘overlapping claims’. The term ‘overlapping claims’ was controversially mentioned in the November 2024 Joint Statement issued during Prabowo’s visit to China, which scholars perceive as an implicit recognition of Beijing’s SCS claim. In fact, the Joint Statement is primarily a political declaration focused on bilateral cooperation which does not carry any legal consequences for either party.

Yet it is misleading to assume that Indonesia is leaning towards China based on the November 2024 Joint Statement. The Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has clarified that the country does not recognise China’s SCS claims as they violate the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Officials and academics in Jakarta have privately indicated that the drafting process was not a collaborative effort based on mutual understanding. In reality, the November 2024 Joint Statement does not reflect Indonesia’s longstanding position on the SCS and does not imply that Indonesia has chosen to side with China.

The Trump administration’s renewed commitment to enhancing strategic cooperation with Indonesia is a positive development for the country. Jakarta welcomes both US and Chinese contributions to maintaining peace and stability in the region. Indonesia, along with other Southeast Asian nations, does not want to see any major power disengaging from the region. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific aims to ensure that Southeast Asia remains inclusive, open and governed by international law.

The US–Indonesia Joint Statement that expresses a preliminary agreement on the bilateral trade relationship poses significant economic risks for Indonesia, though Jakarta can take hope from Washington’s renewed interest in strategic cooperation, particularly in military and maritime sectors. Overall, the Trump administration appears to project an old image of the United States as a provider of security — but less so as a provider of economic opportunity.

Source: East Asia Forum

President Donald Trump’s use of a 227-year-old wartime law to deport accused Venezuelan gang members to an El Salvador mega-prison without legal due process triggered lawsuits across the US. The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 allows a president to unilaterally detain or deport almost all citizens of an enemy nation during a war or invasion. Asserting the law in peacetime, as Trump did in a March proclamation, is unprecedented and tests the boundaries of executive power.

By and large the lawsuits have not gone well for Trump’s administration. Federal judges in New York, Colorado and Texas issued orders in recent months restricting the president’s use of the law. In a new setback, a federal appeals court ruled Sept. 2 that his use of it is not valid because the presence of Venezuelan gang members in the US does not amount to an invasion or “predatory incursion” of the US required under the statute.The Supreme Court has already weighed in twice on the law — first to rule that individuals must be given “reasonable time” to legally challenge their deportation, and then to issue an emergency block on the removal of detainees from northern Texas. But the justices haven’t answered the fundamental question of whether Trump’s use of the law is valid.

The law was enacted to prevent acts of sabotage and espionage during wartime, giving the president the authority to unilaterally detain or deport natives and citizens of “enemy” nations without the usual due process, such as a hearing before an immigration court.The act applies when there is a war between the US and any foreign nation, or when an “invasion or predatory incursion is perpetrated, attempted, or threatened against the territory of the United States by any foreign nation or government.” Under the act, citizens of the hostile nation who are at least 14 years old can be detained and “removed as alien enemies.”

By contrast, the government is typically permitted to remove noncitizens for three reasons: there is proof they have taken part in a criminal act; they are a threat to public safety; or they have violated their visa.It’s a violent criminal organization based in Venezuela whose operations have spread across Latin America and the US. Then-President Joe Biden designated the group a “significant transnational criminal organization” in July 2024. Trump took that a step further after winning reelection, declaring the gang a Foreign Terrorist Organization.

The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control said at the time that Tren de Aragua posed an “escalating threat” to US communities and that the group focused on human smuggling and other crimes targeting “desperate migrants.”

Trump’s beef with the gang culminated in his deployment in August of warships, aircraft and troops to the southern Caribbean and a strike on a boat allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela. Trump said the strike killed what he called “positively identified Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists.”Trump argues that his use of the law is necessary to rapidly remove individuals who are threats to US communities. In his March proclamation, Trump said that many Tren de Aragua members “have unlawfully infiltrated the United States and are conducting irregular warfare and undertaking hostile actions” against the country.

The president says his move is justified because migration of Tren de Aragua members to the US amounts to a coordinated invasion by a hostile group that is “closely aligned” with the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Using the law allows Trump to bypass conventional deportation procedures such as hearings in immigration court.Trump defended his use of the wartime law in a discussion with reporters on March 16 aboard Air Force One. “This is war,” Trump said. “In many respects, it’s more dangerous than war because, you know, in war, they have uniforms. You know who you’re shooting at.”

Prior to Trump invoking the law, it had only been used three times: the War of 1812 and both World Wars. Civil rights groups criticized Trump’s use of the law in peacetime, calling it a power grab that resulted in innocent men being sent to a prison in a foreign country without any legal recourse to regain their freedom.The law also has a checkered history. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt used it to justify the internment of 120,000 people of Japanese descent, including 70,000 US citizens, two months after Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor. The internment has since been condemned as among the most shameful episodes in US history, illustrating how the statute can be abused.

On May 1, a federal judge in Texas ruled that Trump improperly invoked the Alien Enemies Act to deport accused Venezuelan gang members. US District Judge Fernando Rodriguez Jr., a Trump appointee, ruled Trump’s actions weren’t legal because the US isn’t being invaded or experiencing a “predatory incursion” as required by the law. The ruling only applied to Rodriguez’s district in southern Texas.

Just days later, federal judges in New York and Colorado also barred Trump from using the law to deport alleged Venezuelan gang members from their courts’ jurisdictions, agreeing with plaintiffs that the gang activity didn’t qualify under the act. None of the judges blocked the administration from deporting individuals under other immigration laws that are typically used in such cases.

“There is nothing in the AEA that justifies a finding that refugees migrating from Venezuela, or TdA gangsters who infiltrate the migrants, are engaged in an ‘invasion’ or ‘predatory incursion,’” US District Judge Alvin Hellerstein wrote in Manhattan.The courts also rejected Trump’s argument that judges can’t review his invocation of the act. US District Judge Charlotte Sweeney in Colorado called that contention “nonsense.”“Courts — including this one — have rejected this meritless argument, and the court declines to indulge it further,” the judge wrote.

The highest court to rule against Trump so far is the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals, which ruled 2-1 on Sept. 2 that Trump cannot use the Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged Tren de Aragua members. The ruling applies to the conservative-leaning court’s jurisdiction, which covers Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. The judges said that a country encouraging its citizens to enter the US illegally “is not the modern-day equivalent of sending an armed, organized force to occupy, to disrupt, or to otherwise harm” the US.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said the U.S. could increase its troop presence in Poland and pledged to secure the country's defense during a White House meeting with its conservative nationalist President Karol Nawrocki.

Trump, who welcomed his ally with a military flyover, said the U.S. has a "tremendous relationship" with Poland. Asked if he planned to keep American troops in Poland, Trump said yes. "We'll put more there if they want," he said.

The U.S. military presence on NATO's eastern flank, including Poland, remains one of the central issues for Warsaw, which is seeking assurances of continued support in the midst of Russia's war with Ukraine.

Nawrocki said after the meeting that the two men had discussed increasing the number of U.S. troops and that Trump had strongly guaranteed Poland's security.

"The success of his (Nawrocki's) special relationship with the MAGA movement and with President Trump would be if the United States increased its presence in Poland," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told journalists on Tuesday, referring to Trump's "Make America Great Again" slogan.

Trump extended an invitation to visit to Nawrocki days after he was sworn in early in August and then intervened to ensure he joined a telephone call about Ukraine with European leaders instead of his rival, centrist Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Trump hosted Nawrocki at the White House in May, backing him at a crucial moment in the Polish election. Nawrocki went on to defeat the candidate of Tusk's pro-European, centrist party a month later.

The talks were expected to touch on stalled negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and Poland's security concerns amid signs that Trump has grown frustrated with Putin for failing to move forward on peace efforts.

Trump said he planned to hold talks about the war in Ukraine again soon. A White House official said Trump is expected to speak with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Thursday.

"I'll be speaking to him over the next few days ... I'm going to know exactly what's happening," Trump said.

On Tuesday, Trump said he was disappointed in Putin, adding that his administration planned some action to reduce deaths in the war. Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, borders both Russia and war-torn Ukraine.

Asked on Wednesday if he had any words for Putin, Trump replied: "I have no message to President Putin. He knows where I stand."

Trump greeted Nawrocki at the White House with a flyover by U.S. pilots in military jets, with F-16s in a special "missing man" formation in tribute to a Polish F-16 pilot who died during a rehearsal for an airshow last week.

Nawrocki had been expected to push for an increased U.S. commitment to Polish security and more troops, though that could be a tough sell as the United States weighs cutting the number of troops it has in Europe.

In Poland, the run-up to the visit has seen open conflict between the foreign ministry and the presidential palace over preparations, and, unusually, there was no high-ranking government official in Nawrocki's delegation.

Trump has long been supportive of Poland, lauding its leadership in boosting military spending and acknowledging its geographic position in "a tough neighborhood."

But experts say he will be looking for Warsaw to buy even more U.S. weapons for its own use and to send to Ukraine.

Poland is a big buyer of U.S. arms, such as M1A2 Abrams tanks, F-35 fighter jets, AH-64 Apache helicopters, Javelin missiles and HIMARS rocket launchers. In June, Washington said it would give Poland a $4 billion loan guarantee to buy more.

Source: Reuters

Key Points:

On September 4th, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed reiterated that bringing U.S. inflation back to 2% remains ongoing, with labor market signs slightly cooling.

Kashkari's comments spark speculation on future interest rate cuts in 2025, potentially influencing crypto asset values as macroeconomic shifts occur.

Fed's Inflation Strategy Amid Cooling Job Market

Neel Kashkari's assertion on the persistence of high inflation accompanies a cooling labor market in the U.S., suggesting ongoing Fed intervention. With his leadership, the Fed remains committed to achieving a 2% inflation rate goal, emphasizing the need for continual policy evaluation and adjustment.

Changes in Forward Guidance from the Fed include expectations of two rate cuts starting September 2025 if conditions permit. This projection aligns with tariff pressures influencing goods price inflation, factoring into broader monetary policy discussions within the Federal Reserve.

Market reactions reveal increased investor interest in future interest rate adjustments expected to moderate inflation concerns. No significant price movements are evident in Bitcoin or Ethereum, though historical trends suggest risk assets could benefit from projected rate cuts. Key market players maintain cautious optimism regarding future economic cycles.

Rate Cuts Projected as Economic Conditions Shift

Did you know? In previous years, anticipated interest rate cuts have led to increased market enthusiasm, often boosting both equities and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as seen in various monetary cycles since 2018.

Data from CoinMarketCap highlights Bitcoin (BTC) at $112,499.15 with a market cap of $2.24 trillion, reflecting a 1.72% daily increase. Despite an overall decline over the past month, BTC maintained resilience, supported by recent macroeconomic conditions. Updated as of 18:09 UTC on September 3, 2025.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 18:09 UTC on September 3, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Insights from Coincu research suggest that the interplay between potential rate cuts and tariff impacts could shape future economic outcomes. Historical trends indicate that if the Fed adopts an easing policy, it might stimulate renewed interest in risk assets, impacting both traditional and digital finance landscapes.

Source: CryptoSlate

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum L2 ecosystem

Source: Cryptoslate