US Premiums for Gold Retreat Following Trump’s No-Tariff Vow

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices steadied as Trump vowed bullion imports won’t face tariffs, easing market confusion. The futures-spot spread narrowed, while traders awaited U.S. inflation data and reacted to an extended China tariff truce.

Prices for gold futures in New York and spot gold in London continued to converge after President Donald Trump said imports of bullion won’t be subject to US tariffs, following a federal ruling last week that sowed confusion across the market.

December gold futures on New York’s COMEX exchange held near $3,353 an ounce on Tuesday, while spot gold traded near $3.343 an ounce. Adjusting for the different delivery dates, the two markets are almost level with each other.

On Monday, Trump posted “Gold will not be Tariffed!” on social media, without elaborating further. It was a reassurance for the industry after US Customs and Border Protection stunned traders last week by ruling that imports of certain gold bars would be subject to duties.

Futures on New York’s Comex surged more than $100 an ounce above benchmark spot prices in London on Friday. The spread has since narrowed to about $50.

US Premiums for Gold Retreat Following Trump’s No-Tariff Vow_1

Gold Futures Extend Drop After Trump Vows No Tariffs | Premium over London spot price narrows following Friday spike

US Customs’ decision had sweeping implications for the flow of bullion around the world, and potentially for the smooth functioning of the COMEX futures contract. The administration had exempted the precious metal from duties in April, and Trump’s post appeared to reaffirm that view.

“President Trump’s statement is an encouraging signal for trade stability,” Christoph Wild, the President of the Swiss Association of Precious Metals Producers and Traders, said in a written statement. “However, only a formal and binding decision will provide the certainty the gold sector and its partners require.”

Gold has climbed more than a quarter this year, with the bulk of those gains occurring in the first four months. It’s been supported by geopolitical and trade tensions that have spurred haven demand, along with strong central bank purchases.

Elsewhere, the dollar held a gain ahead of a US inflation report due later Tuesday that may offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path. Higher rates are negative for non-interest bearing gold, while a stronger greenback tends to make the dollar-denominated commodity more expensive for most buyers.

Investors were also weighing Trump’s move on Monday to extend a tariff truce on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November. The move should ease worries of a renewed trade war between the two biggest economies, reducing haven demand.

Spot gold rose 0.2% to $3,347.38 an ounce as of 11:40 a.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady, after posting a 0.3% gain on Monday. Silver, palladium and platinum all advanced.

Source: Bloomberg

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Glendon

Economic

Cryptocurrency

The move came as U.S. inflation data boosted expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut and institutional demand for ETH ETFs hit record highs.

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.8% forecast, lifting the probability of a September rate cut to 82.5%. ETH jumped 3.2% immediately after the release, outpacing Bitcoin’s 3.1% advance in the same period. Lower inflation typically eases monetary policy pressure, making yield-bearing assets like staked ETH more attractive to investors.

Institutional Inflows Hit Record Levels

U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw over $1 billion in net inflows on August 12, led by BlackRock’s ETHA product with a record $639 million single-day haul.

Total ETH ETF assets under management have surged to $19.2 billion, representing a 58% increase in the past month. With just 3.3 million ETH held across all ETFs and post-EIP-1559 net issuance at roughly 8,000 ETH per day, institutional buying is absorbing supply at a rapid pace.

Corporate Treasuries Accelerate ETH Accumulation

Corporate adoption is also intensifying. Nasdaq-listed BitMine Immersion (BMNR) unveiled plans to raise $20 billion for ETH acquisitions, following 180 Life Sciences’ $349 million purchase earlier this month.

Public companies now control about 5% of Ethereum’s circulating supply, positioning ETH as both a yield-generating growth asset and a balance sheet hedge. If executed, BMNR’s plan alone could remove 45 days’ worth of ETH issuance from the open market.

Technical Momentum Supports Upside

On the technical front, ETH’s price has broken above the $4,300 resistance level, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 66, signaling strong but not yet overbought momentum. The MACD remains in positive territory, supporting the bullish trend. Sustaining above $4,350 could open the door for a push toward the all-time high region near $4,800.

With macroeconomic tailwinds, surging ETF demand, and corporate balance sheet allocations tightening supply, Ethereum’s rally could extend into the coming weeks—especially if the Federal Reserve delivers the expected rate cut in September.

The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Economic

U.S. stock futures are mixed ahead of the publication of crucial inflation data that could offer more clarity around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory. Meanwhile, the current chief economist of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation is tapped to be the new commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, just days after the former head was dismissed following a weak jobs report. Elsewhere, billionaire Elon Musk accuses Apple of favoring OpenAI’s ChatGPT on its App Store over a model from his artificial intelligence start-up xAI.

Futures mixed

U.S. stock futures hovered around both sides of the flatline on Tuesday, as investors geared up for the release of key inflation data.

By 02:58 ET (06:58 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 75 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had dipped by 7 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had slipped by 38 points, or 0.2%.

The main averages on Wall Street slipped in the prior session, with markets assessing a reported move by semiconductor majors Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices to agree to grant the U.S. government a 15% cut of their artificial intelligence chip sales to China. Shares of both firms were choppy, ending down by 0.35% and 0.28%, respectively, as observers flagged that the levy could dent their margins and establish a precedent allowing the White House to tax critical exports.

Traders also seemed to shrug at President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day extension to a trade truce between the U.S. and China, analysts at Vital Knowledge said, adding that the outcome was "widely expected." The detente struck earlier this year was due to expire on Tuesday.

CPI ahead

Economic data is once again set to be in the spotlight, with the latest monthly consumer price index due out on Tuesday.

The closely-monitored gauge of inflation is expected to accelerate slightly to 2.8% in the twelve months to July, and cool to 0.2% month-over-month. Stripping out volatile items like food and fuel, so-called "core" CPI is tipped to speed up to 3.0% year-over-year and 0.3% on a monthly basis.

Analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision next month could be swayed in part by the latest numbers.

Following a weak July jobs report and sharp downward revisions to the readings for June and May, bets have risen that the central bank will slash borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its upcoming gathering in September. As a result, any indication that inflation is either in-line or below projections could further bolster these wagers.

However, signs of hotter-than-estimated price gains may give policymakers some pause, particularly as the Fed has recently adopted a more cautious attitude to rate cuts partially due to worries that Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda could drive up inflation. The stance has drawn the ire of Trump, who has called for immediate and deep drawdowns, while dissent to the "wait-and-see" approach was notable in the Fed’s last policy decision in July.

Trump nominates new BLS head

Swirling around the inflation numbers will likely be fresh questions around the reliability of government data, especially after Trump fired the commissioner of the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics in the wake of last month’s soft jobs report.

Without providing evidence, Trump accused the head of BLS, Erika McEntarfer, of doctoring the figures to damage him politically.

On Monday, Trump said he had nominated economist E.J. Antoni as McEntarfer’s replacement. The Senate must still confirm the appointment.

Antoni holds a doctoral degree in economics and has previously been an outspoken critic of the BLS, which is charged with collecting and publishing numbers on the world’s largest economy that are tracked by investors, companies and policymakers alike.

Trump wrote on his social media platform that "E.J. will ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE."

Yet analysts quoted by Reuters have noted some reservations around Antoni, who is currently the chief economist of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation. They added that there may be an increase in demand for private-label data as a result of the nomination.

Musk threatens Apple with legal action

Elon Musk accused Apple’s App Store of engaging in anticompetitive behavior, saying his artificial intelligence startup xAI will take “immediate legal action” over what he described as favoritism toward OpenAI’s ChatGPT.

In posts on his social media platform X late on Monday, Musk said Apple’s practices “make it impossible for any AI company besides OpenAI to reach #1 in the App Store, which is an unequivocal antitrust violation."

The Tesla CEO questioned why X and xAI’s chatbot app Grok were absent from Apple’s “Must Have” section despite, as he claimed, being the world’s top news app and the fifth-ranked app overall, respectively.

“Are you playing politics? What gives?” Musk wrote, also alleging that ChatGPT appears “in every list where (Apple has) editorial control.”

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman responded on X, saying, “This is a remarkable claim given what I have heard alleged that Elon does to manipulate X to benefit himself and his own companies and harm his competitors and people he doesn’t like.”

RBA rate decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia slashed interest rates as expected and signaled that it will likely ease monetary policy further as officials gauge possibly cooling inflation in the country.

Tuesday’s cut to the RBA’s benchmark rate to 3.60% from 3.85% is the third such move this year. It previously kicked off the easing cycle in the first quarter.

The RBA said that slowing inflation will likely spur more rate cuts. It also lowered its outlook for economic growth in 2025, which it now sees falling below 2%.

Source: investing

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Warren Takunda

Economic

UK employment increased 238K in the three months to June, up from 134K previously and ahead of the consensus expectation for +185K. The country's unemployment rate remained steady at 4.7%.

It would have taken a significant deterioration in the labour numbers to throw the Pound of course, meaning Tuesday's relatively safe job report will keep the recent recovery intact.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate rose to 1.1570 from 1.1550 in the minutes following the release, the pound to Dollar exchange rate from 1.3423 to 1.3440.

Nevertheless, the labour market continues to 'soften', with another more timely measure of employment conducted by the ONS, based on PAYE tax data, showing that in July there were 8,000 fewer people in payrolled employment than in June.

"Pick your fighter. UK employment is either up 1.1% since last year's general election, or down 0.4% - or both series are accurate and there has been a 700,000 increase in self-employment not (yet) being picked up in the LFS. Data fog continues," says Simon French, economist at Panmure Gordon.

The decline in available jobs also continues, with the number of vacancies available falling by 44K (5.8%) on the quarter (May to July) to 718K. Pound Sterling Lifted by Jobs & Wage Data_1

Pound Sterling Lifted by Jobs & Wage Data_1

Source: ONS, Pound Sterling Live.

"This continued softening of the labour market is a direct result of policies which are increasing the cost and risk of employing staff. The recent increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions, alongside employment law reforms and above-inflation increases to the National Living Wage, have substantially weakened the business case for hiring," says Alex Hall-Chen, Principal Policy Advisor for Employment at the Institute of Directors.

Yet, wages continue to rise, with average earnings growing 4.6% year on year in the three months to June, slightly below 4.7% that was expected by a poll of economists.

When bonuses are excluded from the wage data, that figure rises to 5.0%, which meets estimates.

Pound Sterling Lifted by Jobs & Wage Data_2

Above: GBP/EUR showing initial post-release reaction.

The Bank of England cut interest rates last month on account of fears that the UK's labour market was deteriorating.

However, it also signalled growing concerns over rising inflation, and economists say it looks as though the Bank will now place more emphasis on inflation numbers as opposed to the jobs market going forward.

This means that it required a significant deterioration in today's labour market numbers to shift perceptions at the Bank of England. That did not happen, ensuring the market doesn't see a higher likelihood of rate cuts in the coming months.

This will support UK bond yields, and the Pound.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

US President Donald Trump fired the previous bureau chief, accusing her of tampering with an employment reportUS President Donald Trump has nominated conservative economist E.J. Antoni to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the agency that is responsible for collecting and publishing the country's employment and inflation figures."Our Economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure that the numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE," Trump posted on his Truth Social account.

Antoni, chief economist at conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, would replace former President Joe Biden's appointment Erika McEntarfer.According to the Heritage Foundation, Antoni holds a PhD in economics. Commentary he has authored has consistently praised Trump's policies, while being critical of his predecessor Biden.The nomination must first be confirmed by the Senate.

Why did Trump dismiss Erika McEntarfer?

Trump fired McEntarfer in the beginning of August after the July report showed a sharp slowdown in hiring. The US president accused her of tampering with the jobs numbers, but provided no evidence to back his claims of data manipulation.After firing McEntarfer, Trump said he would replace her with someone "much more competent and qualified."White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett later acknowledged that the jobs market was indeed cooling.

The BLS employs some 2,300 people as of September 2024. The bureau has recently come under scrutiny due to the eroding quality of the data it produces.After returning to the White House, Trump imposed a hiring freeze in many government agencies, which has also impacted the BLS.

Source: DW

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Germany’s economic sentiment fell sharply in August, snapping a three-month recovery and casting renewed doubts over the country’s growth outlook.

The decline follows a controversial EU–US trade deal that has disappointed financial experts and left key industrial sectors exposed to steeper tariff burdens.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment dropped by 18 points to 34.7 in August, falling well short of expectations for a more modest retreat to 40.

This reverses part of the strong recovery seen in July, when sentiment had climbed to its highest since February 2022.

The gauge for current conditions also deteriorated, slipping to -68.6 from -59.5 a month earlier, missing forecasts of -60.

The downturn reflects concerns over Germany’s weak second-quarter performance and the perceived asymmetry of the newly signed transatlantic trade pact.

“Financial market experts are disappointed by the announced EU–US trade deal,” said ZEW president, professor Achim Wambach.

“In August 2025, the ZEW indicator experiences a substantial decline, also due to the poor performance of the German economy in the second quarter. The outlook has worsened in particular for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. The mechanical engineering and metal sectors as well as the automotive industry are also severely affected.”

Sentiment across the eurozone mirrored Germany’s decline. The ZEW expectations index for the bloc dropped 11 points to 25.1, while the gauge of current conditions fell by 7 points to minus 31.2.

Initial hopes of relative resilience in the eurozone have been tempered as economists revise down growth expectations for the second half of the year.

Unequal trade deal weighs on sentiment

On 27 July, just days before a 30% US tariff on EU goods was set to take effect, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump reached a last-minute agreement.

The accord included a basic 15% tariff on EU exports, with steeper levies of 50% on steel, aluminium and copper. Aircraft and aircraft parts were exempted.

As part of the deal, the EU also pledged to purchase $750 billion (€685 billion) in US energy exports over three years. The political optics were widely seen as favourable to Washington.

“A one-sided trade deal to reduce the US trade deficit with the EU,” remarked Oliver Rakau, chief Germany economist at Oxford Economics.

"Politically, this agreement looks like a clear win for the US," he added.

The deal “is at the better end of the spectrum of what could realistically be achieved,” Isabelle Mateos y Lago, economist at BNP Paribas, noted.

She highlighted that the effective tariff rate has been multiplied tenfold compared to the start of the year, though she sees the shock as manageable given exports to the US account for under 3% of EU GDP.

Bill Diviney, economist at ABN Amro, described the agreement as a product of Europe's weak bargaining position, highlighting economic stagnation and rising inflation pressures.

“Berlin and France were unwilling to suffer economic pain to risk a better outcome,” he said.

“The EU remains dependent on the US for its security, both in terms of military support as for military imports and remains a net importer of energy,” he added.

Markets cautious as US inflation data looms

Market reaction to the ZEW release was muted. Germany’s DAX index remained broadly steady at 24,050 points. The euro dipped slightly, down 0.1% to $1.1600.

Investor focus now turns to the upcoming US inflation report for July, with the Consumer Price Index expected to have risen 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7% in June.

Markets are watching closely for any signs that higher tariffs are beginning to filter through to consumer prices.

Money markets continue to price in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, as signs of cooling labour market strengthen the case for easing.

Source: Euronews

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Adam

Economic

The British pound is in positive territory on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3461, up 0.22% on the day. The pound has jumped 1.9% in August and touched a high of 1.3476 on Monday, its highest level since July 25.

Job openings drop, wage growth steady

The UK labor market continues to cool. Job openings fell by 5.8% across most industries and the nunber of payrolled employeees also declined. However, the slowdown was not as bad as expected and didn't boost the unemployment rate, which remained at 4.7%.

The labor market is feeling the effect of higher employer national insurance contributions and a rise in the minimum wage, as employers continue to cut back on hiring.

The Bank of England has been cautious in its rate path and last week's cut was only the second this year. The split vote at the rate meeting reflects the conundrum that Bank policymakers face regarding rates - the UK economy is weak and the labor market is slowing, but inflation has been moving higher. The Bank is expected to cut rates again in November but that will depend on the employment and inflation numbers.

US inflation expected to hit to 2.8%

The US releases the July inflation report later today. Inflation is is expected to inch higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in June. This would mark a third straight acceleration and the highest inflation level since February. Core CPI is also expected to accelerate to 3.0%, up from 2.9%.

Monthly, CPI is projected to ease to 0.2% from 0.3%. Core CPI is projected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%.

Today's inflation report could shift market expectations for the September Fed meeting but a Fed cut will likely remain on track. The markets have currently priced in the likelihood of a rate cut at 84%, according to FedWatch's CME.