US Mid-Session Bell: US earnings bolsters sentiment as Apple, Amazon report next

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

Strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta lifted U.S. markets, easing recession fears. Investors await Apple and Amazon results as hopes for a US-China trade deal boost sentiment and risk appetite.

U.S. stock index futures climbed on Thursday, driven by tech giants Microsoft and Meta. Microsoft jumped nearly 9% in premarket trading after predicting strong growth for its Azure cloud business, while Meta rose 6.3% thanks to higher-than-expected revenue fueled by strong ad performance.

Strong results from Microsoft and Meta eased worries about the uncertain business and economic outlook caused by unpredictable U.S. tariff changes and the growing trade war with China.

While many companies have cut or withdrawn their forecasts, S&P 500 earnings are still expected to rise 11.5% in the first quarter, up from the 7.8% forecast earlier in April, according to LSEG data.

This has been welcomed by market participants after yesterday's US GDP data print which showed the US economy contracted in Q1 raising recessionary fears. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier today that the administration expects to see the GDP print revised when the final number is released.

Earnings are expected to continue after the market closes, with big hitters Amazon and Apple reporting.

On the FX front, the US Dollar has continued its recovery with the greenback climbing 1.1% to 144.62 to the yen. The Yen faced pressure on Thursday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) cut growth forecasts due to U.S. tariffs and kept interest rates unchanged.

Elsewhere, GBP is starting Thursday’s North American session unchanged against the US Dollar, performing better than all G10 currencies except the Euro. This came about after a positive PMI print in the European session.

Gold has continued its slide today, finding support just above the $3200/oz handle. For a full breakdown on Gold read Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: Gold faces headwinds as risk appetite improves

Market sentiment continues to improve on hopes of a US-China trade deal. For now this narrative is the major driving force of market moves while positive earnings will only aid the current recovery in risk assets.

Economic data releases

For now the US calendar awaits PMI due in a short while which could have a short-term impact on market moves. However, judging by yesterday's GDP release and market reaction, it is clear that tariffs are overshadowing data releases.

Tomorrow the week will come to a close with NFP jobs report data from the US.

Chart of the day - Nasdaq 100

From a technical standpoint, the Nasdaq 100 is a whisker away from the key psychological 20000 handle. In pre-market trade, the index touched a high 19932 before falling somewhat since the US open.

WIll Apple and Amazon be the catalyst for a break higher or will we see another pullback?

US equities have also been largely driven by tariff developments. As it stands the improved sentiment and hopes of a US-China deal has set up the earnings reports from the 'Magnificent 7' perfectly to have a notable impact.

However, if we are to see a poor earnings report and forward guidance from Apple and Amazon, i still believe a selloff may be short-lived given the improving risk appetite.

Immediate resistance rests at 20000 but a host of hurdles lie just abit higher with the 20207 and 20484 handle both likely to prove tough hurdles to overcome.

A pullback from here will have to navigate past the 19436 handle before the selloff gains traction in my opinion. Below that support rests at 19123 and 18852 respectively.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, May 1, 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Major indices were in the green early on Thursday as investors cheered quarterly earnings beats from tech giants Meta Platforms and Microsoft overnight.

As of 1525 BST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.70% at 40,954.59, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.08% to 5,629.20 and the Nasdaq Composite came out of the gate 1.83% firmer at 17,765.54.

The Dow opened 285.23 points higher on Thursday, extending gains recorded in the previous session despite news that gross domestic product had fallen at an annualised pace of 0.3% in Q1 to mark the first quarter of negative growth since Q122.

Meta Platforms traded higher at the open on the back of stronger-than-expected Q1 revenues, while Microsoft shares were also higher thanks to top and bottom-line beats in its fiscal Q3, as well as strong results from its Azure cloud business and some upbeat guidance.

Pharmacy chain operator CVS Health hiked its FY profit guidance as its improving Medicare unit helped drive a better-than-expected quarterly showing, while drugmaker Eli Lilly cut its FY earnings guidance on the back of research charges and disappointing weight-loss drug sales, and fast food giant McDonald's missed quarterly sales estimates as it recorded its largest drop in customer numbers since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Still to come, Apple and Amazon will release their latest quarterly numbers after the close.

Also in focus, Tesla shares traded 0.6% higher after the electric carmaker denied reports that it had opened a search for a new chief executive to replace Elon Musk.

On the macro front, Americans lined up for unemployment benefits at an accelerated pace in the week ended 26 April, according to the Department of Labor. Initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis to 241,000, the highest since February and much higher than expectations for a reading of 224,000. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, initial claims increased by 12,901 to 223,614, with notable increases in New York and Massachusetts. Outstanding claims rose by 83,000 to 1.91m, the highest since November 2021 and also ahead of market expectations of 1.86m, while the four-week moving average came to 226,000, an increase of 5,500 week-on-week.

Elsewhere, S&P Global's manufacturing PMI was revised down to 50.2 in April, unchanged month-on-month but short of preliminary estimates of 50.7. In terms of inflation, input cost growth eased from March's two-and-a-half-year high, while output prices increased at their fastest rate since 2023.

On another note, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7 in April, down from 49.0 in March but slightly above market expectations of 48. The reading pointed to a second straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, with output dropping from 48.3 to 44.0. The survey also showed that manufacturers were struggling to deal with rising costs and margin pressure amid ongoing trade uncertainty that has disrupted supply chains.

Finally, construction spending shrank by 0.5% month-on-month to $2.19trn in March, according to the Census Bureau, following a downwardly revised 0.6% increase in February and missing consensus estimates of a 0.2% rise. Private sector spending declined by 0.6% in the period, while public spending edged down 0.2%.

Source: Sharecast

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Yen Slumps on Dovish BOJ and Tariff-Driven Forecast Cuts

The Japanese yen weakened by as much as 1.1% on Thursday, reaching 144.74 per dollar—its lowest level since April 10—after the Bank of Japan delivered a policy decision that investors interpreted as more dovish than expected. While the BOJ's decision to hold interest rates was fully anticipated, markets were surprised by the magnitude of its downward revisions to both growth and inflation forecasts. These revisions were largely attributed to external pressures, particularly U.S. tariffs, which have added uncertainty to Japan’s export-driven economy.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that with core inflation not on a clear upward trajectory, the central bank saw no urgency to raise rates. The BOJ now expects inflation to reach its 2% target only by the second half of fiscal year 2026, effectively delaying its policy tightening timeline by another year. In response, money markets quickly revised expectations, pricing in only 10 basis points of rate hikes by year-end, down from 16 basis points prior to the announcement.

Dollar Steadies After Tumultuous April

In contrast to the yen’s weakness, the U.S. dollar has started to stabilize after experiencing its largest monthly drop in two and a half years. The greenback’s recovery has been driven in part by shifting sentiment around trade policy. President Donald Trump’s temporary suspension of several tariff hikes and comments hinting at “potential deals” with India, South Korea, Japan, and possibly China, have reduced trade-related uncertainty—at least for now.

The dollar’s resurgence pushed the euro to a two-week low of $1.1288 and nudged the British pound down 0.2% to $1.3302. With most European markets closed for the May Day holiday, trading was relatively thin, amplifying the impact of U.S.-driven sentiment.

Trade Tensions and Economic Divergence Shape FX Markets

While Trump’s shifting trade posture has sown volatility throughout April, the possibility of bilateral agreements has helped to support risk appetite in currency markets. Westpac strategist Richard Franulovich described the current environment as a “de-escalation window,” where investors are cautiously positioning for further normalization in global trade relations.

Yet, this optimism comes against the backdrop of a weakening U.S. economy. First-quarter GDP data showed a contraction—the first since 2022—largely driven by a surge in imports as businesses rushed to beat the implementation of tariffs. Despite this, robust domestic demand has led some economists to remain cautiously optimistic about near-term resilience.

Eyes on U.S. Labor Data for Next Policy Cues

Market participants are now looking ahead to U.S. labor market data for confirmation of economic trends. Weekly jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing survey are due later Thursday, but the April nonfarm payrolls report—scheduled for Friday—is viewed as the next major inflection point for monetary policy expectations. Economists forecast a slowdown in job creation to around 130,000 positions, and any significant surprise could sway Fed policy outlooks and drive renewed volatility in currency markets.

Danske Bank’s Mohamad Al-Saraf noted that the dollar has been relatively unresponsive to U.S. data throughout April, but that could change if the labor report offers a decisive shift in economic momentum. “If there is a surprise, markets may start to pay closer attention to fundamentals again,” he said.

Commodity Currencies Mixed as Dollar Firms

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar dipped modestly to $0.6384 after posting strong gains in April, supported by slightly hotter-than-expected inflation data that tempered market expectations of near-term rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The New Zealand dollar held steady at $0.5924, remaining within its recent trading range.

The sharp contrast between the BOJ’s dovish stance and the Fed’s cautious patience has reignited dollar strength and sent the yen lower. While trade optimism and economic data continue to sway currency markets, investor attention is now firmly set on upcoming U.S. labor figures, which could determine whether the dollar’s rebound has lasting momentum or faces renewed challenges in May.

Source: Reuters

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Glendon

Economic

Political

The US and Ukraine on Wednesday signed a mineral deal that is expected to give Washington access to Kyiv's valuable mineral resources while providing the country with some assurance of continued American support in its war with Russia.

As part of the agreement, the two countries will set up the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, with plans to invest collectively for speeding up Ukraine’s economic recovery, said a statement by the US Department of the Treasury. Details of the total size of the fund were not revealed.

The deal was supposed to have been signed during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to the US in February. But negotiations fell through after US President Donald Trump accused Mr Zelenskyy of not being grateful enough for American assistance.

Analysts said the deal is mutually beneficial.

“For Ukraine, the deal brings much-needed US investment to support its recovery and growth while maintaining control over its resources," Joseph Dahrieh, managing principal at brokerage Tickmill told The National.

"For the US, it reduces reliance on China for critical minerals and increases its influence in eastern Europe."

The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, has devastated Ukraine’s economy, with heavy damage to its infrastructure and housing.

Ukraine will need at least $524 billion over the next decade to repair and rebuild the country, the World Bank said in a recent report. Reconstruction of the housing sector is estimated at $84 billion, transport at $78 billion, and energy and extractives sector at $68 billion.

The country’s economy, which contracted by 28.8 per cent in 2022 following Russia’s invasion, is projected to have expanded by 3.5 per cent last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. It is forecast to grow between 2 per cent to 3 per cent this year.

The US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), a US government entity, will also be involved in managing the fund along with the UK Treasury Department and Ukraine government, the statement said.

DFC, with a global investment portfolio worth $49 billion, partners with the private sector to mobilise capital for strategic investments around the world. It invests in sectors including infrastructure and critical minerals, energy, food security and agriculture.

“President Trump envisioned this partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Details of US, Ukraine fund

Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said in a post on X that the fund will help Kyiv attract international investment.

“The implementation of the agreement will allow both countries to expand their economic potential through equal co-operation and investment. The agreement does not contain any mention of any debt obligations of Ukraine to the United States,” she said.

“We expect that for the first 10 years, the fund's profits and revenues will not be distributed, but can only be invested in Ukraine − in new projects or reconstruction."

The US has heavily supported Ukraine in its war with Russia. Washington has been Kyiv's single largest military donor with aid of more than €64 billion ($72 billion) since the war began in February 2022, according to the Kiel Institute think tank in Germany.

Importance of critical raw minerals

Ukraine is rich in natural resources including critical minerals, which are used in consumer electronics, electric vehicles and military applications, among others.

The country has 22 of the 50 strategic materials identified by the US as critical, and 25 out of the 34 recognised by the EU as critically important. Particularly, Ukraine holds very competitive reserves of graphite, lithium, titanium, zirconium, beryllium and uranium, according to the Ukrainian Geological Survey website.

Global rare-earth mining is currently dominated by China, which is locked in a trade war with the US after Mr Trump's sharp tariff increases.

Ukraine also has reserves of gold, uranium, cobalt, nickel and zinc, among other minerals.

“Ukraine has the largest reserves in Europe of titanium, lithium, and uranium and holds about 5 per cent of global rare-earth reserves, making the country an important partner for energy, defence, and clean technology supply chains,” Mr Dahrieh said.

The deal could offer the US a stable source of critical materials needed for defence, clean energy, and high-tech industries, he added.

Source: THENATIONALNEWS

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Adam

Commodity

Gold futures prices are posting losses of over $100 in early U.S. trading Thursday, as risk appetite has markedly improved in the general marketplace late this week. Profit taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term futures traders are featured. Silver prices are solidly down. A steep drop in crude oil prices this week is a bearish weight on most commodity markets, including the precious metals. June gold was last down $105.60 at $3,213.20. May silver prices were last down $0.896 at $31.635.

Many Asian and European stock markets were closed for the May Day holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings today in New York. Risk appetite is keener late this week, following some better-than-expected U.S. corporate earnings reports that were released the past couple days. Also, the Trump administration is hinting that new trade deals with other countries are close at hand. Chinese media is reporting the U.S. has reached out to China to discuss trade.

The next big U.S. data point is Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for April from the Labor Department. That report may be the most important U.S. data point so far this year. The key non-farm payrolls number is seen coming in at up 133,000 versus a gain of 228,000 in the March report.

The key outside markets today and see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower, hit at three-week low and trading around $56.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.137%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the U.S. manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending and domestic auto industry sales.

Gold price down triple digits as risk appetite up-ticks_1

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,350.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,100.00. First resistance is seen at $3,250.00 and then at $3,300.00. First support is seen at $3,200.00 and then at $3,175.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Gold price down triple digits as risk appetite up-ticks_2

May silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. A price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $33.69. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at the overnight high of $32.555. Next support is seen at $31.50 and then at $31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source: kitco

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Cryptocurrency

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin holds $95,000 as Fed rate cut odds rise to 60% for June 18 and the US economy slumps.

Breaking $95,000 could push BTC’s price toward $100,000, while dropping below $93,000 may bring the $84,000 back into the picture.

Key Bitcoin levels to watch remain around the long-term holders’ cost basis.

Bitcoin is once again attempting to break above $95,000 on May 1 as markets price in the possibility of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates sooner than expected. Bitcoin Price About to ‘Blast’ Higher as Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump to 60%_1

Bitcoin Price About to ‘Blast’ Higher as Fed Rate Cut Odds Jump to 60%_1

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fed rate cut will drive BTC’s price higher

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin edging higher hours after dipping below $93,000 following US GDP data that reflected a shrinking economy.

A contracting economy will likely prompt the Fed to lower rates to stimulate activity sooner rather than later. This reduces yields on traditional assets like bonds, pushing investors toward Bitcoin and risk-on assets.

The odds of a Fed interest rate cut at the June 18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting have increased over the last week, from 57% on April 30 to 60% on May 1.

Fed target rate probabilities for the June 18 Fed meeting. Source: CME FedWatch

Rate cut expectations have historically been a bullish catalyst for risk-on assets and Bitcoin. For example, Bitcoin rallied more than 20% ahead of the last Fed rate cut on Dec. 18, 2024.

“Bitcoin surges back toward $95K, rebounding from bearish US GDP data,” said pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst BTCmoonmath in a May 1 post on X, adding:

“Traders anticipate a Federal Reserve’s easing and rate cuts in the future, despite a shrinking economy and low consumer confidence.”

Focus now shifts to how the May 2 jobs report, which reveals how many jobs were added to the US economy in April, will impact the crypto market and, in turn, Bitcoin’s price.

What’s next for Bitcoin’s price?

Currently, $95,000 is the key level traders are watching, and many analysts believe that a sustained push through the resistance zone above this area opens the door for a swift move higher.

“The price has recently surged above both key technical levels and is now attempting to consolidate within this zone,” Glassnode said in its latest “Week Onchain” report.

The market intelligence firm referred to the 111-day simple moving average (SMA) at $91,300 and the short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $93,200. Bitcoin reclaimed these levels in the recent upward swing, highlighting the degree of strength behind the move.

“These are levels that must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory, and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.”

BTC/USD chart showing STH cost basis and 111-day SMA. Source: Glassnode

“Bitcoin is ready to blast through $96,000,” popular analyst AlphaBTC said in his latest analysis on X.

According to the analyst, a decisive break above $95,000 could see BTC move out of consolidation, with the next logical move being toward the $100,000 psychological level.

“This is what I would like to see if Bitcoin can follow through today. A nice big squeeze into the low 100Ks.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: AlphaBTC

Conversely, the analyst said that a drop below April 30 lows at $93,000 could see BTC/USD sink deeper toward the $84,000 and $88,000 range as shown in the chart above.

Fellow crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades added that if price consolidates without rejection and keeps grinding upward, then that should position BTC for a move higher toward the $100,000 region, he explained to his followers on X.

BTC/USD hourly chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades

Source: Cointelegraph

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) has released its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report, showing a slight uptick in manufacturing activity. The actual figure revealed was 48.7, a marginal increase from the previous month.

However, this figure still fell short of the forecasted 48.0, indicating a slower pace of expansion than economists had anticipated. It’s a signal that the manufacturing sector, a significant component of the U.S. economy, continues to grapple with challenges despite the slight improvement.

When compared to the previous month’s figure of 49.0, the actual ISM Manufacturing PMI for this month shows a decline. This sequential drop in the index suggests that manufacturing activity has slowed down, even though it did not contract as much as predicted.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a crucial economic indicator, based on data compiled from monthly surveys of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. The index measures various aspects of manufacturing activity, including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A higher than expected reading is generally considered positive or bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading is seen as negative or bearish.

This month’s PMI reading, while higher than the previous month, continues to underscore the challenges facing the manufacturing sector. Despite the slight rebound, the fact that it remains below the forecasted figure indicates that the sector’s recovery may be slower than initially anticipated.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is closely watched by investors and policymakers as it provides a timely snapshot of the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The slight uptick this month, despite falling short of forecasts, could be a sign that the sector is slowly beginning to recover. However, the continued weakness in the index also suggests that the road to full recovery may still be long and fraught with challenges.