UK’s 200 Year-Old Tory Party Confronts Existential Risk

Samantha Luan

Economic

Forex

Political

Summary:

Last year Kemi Badenoch entered the Conservative Party conference competing with three of her Tory rivals for the leadership. As winner of that contest, this time around she confronts a more formidable foe: irrelevance.Since losing two-thirds of its seats in last year’s general election, dire poll ratings and defections have humbled the once-dominant party of UK government. If a vote were held today, a recent opinion survey showed, they’d collapse to fourth, trailing Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party, the governing Labour Party, and the Liberal Democrats.

Rebuilding after 2024’s ballot-box rejection was always going to test Rishi Sunak’s successor. But doubts over Badenoch’s ability to lead the fightback mean she still has to guard against the mutinous instincts that led her party to cycle through five leaders in a decade.Should pollsters’ predictions hold at May’s local elections — her next test at the ballot box — many in the shadow cabinet speculate she will be replaced soon after, according to those who spoke to Bloomberg, asking for anonymity to share their views freely.

If rivals lack a greater zeal to depose her ahead of that, it’s because of skepticism that it would make any difference. Speaking before this year’s conference in Manchester, which got under way on Sunday, several of Badenoch’s colleagues voiced the concern that voters may be unlikely to return to them after just one term out of office.The next election isn’t due until 2029 and competing ever more successfully for former Conservative voters’ attention is Reform, which has succeeded in monopolizing the right-wing of British politics far more adeptly than its five parliamentary seats would suggest. That number had been four before a defection from the Conservatives.

In recent weeks, Labour Party Prime Minister Keir Starmer has sought to cast the next election as a head-to-head between his party and Reform. If voters buy into his framing, the Tories will find it harder to turn around their dire opinion-poll ratings.In interviews on the opening day of the conference, Badenoch — the first woman from an ethnic minority — to lead the party of Winston Churchill and Margaret Thatcher — urged patience on her colleagues. “The election is not tomorrow,” she told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. “Nothing good comes quickly or fast. And it will pay off,” she said, insisting she had a plan.

Her party came out with hard lines on migration, which has eclipsed the economy in recent polls of voter concerns. She pledged to annually deport 150,000 people “who shouldn’t be here,” while declining to elaborate where they will go.Tomorrow in his speech, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer Mel Stride will identify what he says are £47 billion ($63 billion) of potential budget cuts, with almost half of that made up from slashing the welfare bill. Another £7 billion would be hacked off the foreign aid budget — almost half of current spending in an area that’s already suffered cuts to 0.5% of economic output from 0.7%.

The party’s challenge will be convincing voters it can tackle problems that went unaddressed over a 14-year stretch in government.

Labour Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood said the Tories had “suddenly discovered a zeal for reform that they did not have when they were in office,” pointing to their failure to enforce secure borders: migrant crossings in small boats from France were virtually non existent in 2017, but had soared to more than 45,000 a year by 2022. Meanwhile, an effort to deport arrivals to Rwanda never got off the ground. It’s an issue Labour, too, are struggling to deal with.Several of Badenoch’s colleagues — both in her cabinet and the back benches — said they fear more high-profile defections to Reform, which has already claimed Tory former cabinet ministers in Nadine Dorries and Jake Berry. In her interview Kemi denigrated the insurgent right-wing party as a “one-man band.”

If Badenoch were challenged for the leadership of her party, erstwhile rival Robert Jenrick is a frontrunner but four of his colleagues voiced skepticism that he will do better against Farage. He’ll be Farage-lite, one said: and voters who want that kind of politics will just vote for the Reform leader himself.The other candidate on the up is Katie Lam, the 33-year old Goldman Sachs alumnus who is also on the right on immigration but — having won election in 2024 — has the advantage of not being associated with the old guard.

Some party centrists believe there to be an opportunity for a leader who can tack against the Tories’ current rightward shift and pivot back toward the center-ground to take advantage of Labour’s own collapse. There are also Liberal Democrat voters to be won back there: Ed Davey’s party took 60 seats off the Conservatives last year, and recent polls suggest they can win more next time around.

“Polls are not elections,” Badenoch said in her interview. Hers is not the only UK party nervously repeating this mantra.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Michelle

Economic

Forex

Consumer concerns about inflation have fallen to their lowest level in nearly three years, according to Morgan Stanley’s latest U.S. Consumer Pulse Survey, even as analysts warn that tariffs could still lead to future price pressures.

In the bank’s 69th monthly survey of around 2,000 consumers conducted between Sept. 25 and 29, 56% of respondents cited inflation as their top concern, down from 60% in August and 63% a year earlier.

“While inflation remains the number one concern for consumers over the next 12 months, the proportion of consumers reporting it as their primary concern has dropped to the lowest level since 2022,” Morgan Stanley said.

The firm cautioned that the improvement might be premature. “Tariff price pass-through is likely not yet complete,” analysts wrote, noting that more than two-thirds of affected firms have yet to raise prices or expect further increases.

The bank’s analysis of corporate transcripts also found that companies are “increasingly discussing flexing pricing power to mitigate the impact of tariffs.”

Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has also improved.

Morgan Stanley said thirty-six percent of respondents expect the economy to improve over the next six months, up from 33% last month, while those expecting conditions to worsen fell to 46% from 49%.

Morgan Stanley said this marks a “notable improvement from -16% last month,” though confidence remains below January highs.

The survey also highlighted the growing role of inheritance in household finances, with 17% of consumers having received one and 14% expecting to.

Morgan Stanley said inheritances are “primarily used for savings, retirement, or investments,” underscoring their link to long-term financial security.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Adam

Economic

French markets tumbled after the resignation of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu threw the country into another political crisis, raising the prospect of snap elections to break the deadlock.

French bonds fell, with 10-year yields jumping as much as 11 basis points to 3.61%. That left the premium that investors are demanding to hold French debt over Germany at the highest level this year. The CAC 40 Index lost 1.5% as banks took the biggest hit. The euro weakened 0.7% against the dollar.

The resignation is the latest step in a long-running political crisis in France, which has prompted the downfall of a number of prime ministers and roiled the nation’s assets. The key problem successive premiers have faced is having to pass a budget through a fractured parliament that includes unpopular spending cuts and tax increases to rein in the largest deficit in the euro area.

French Markets Sink Amid Growing Fears of Political Paralysis_1

“To lose one prime minister is unfortunate, but four looks like a major crisis,” wrote Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group. “The real worry will be that the procession of prime ministers unable to govern will at some point force the resignation of President Macron, which would cause the crisis to intensify significantly.”

France’s Lecornu Set to Speak After Resigning as PM: TOPLive

French bonds were once viewed as a haven investment of a similar order to Triple-A rated German notes. Now, 10-year yields are among the highest in the euro area. Fitch Ratings cut its credit assessment to A+ from AA- just days after Lecornu took office, moving France a notch lower than the UK, to the same level as Belgium.

Some analysts cautioned against making any political speculation based on market swings. Macron still has options ahead of him. He can name a new prime minister, who would then need to propose a fresh cabinet or he could call a parliamentary election. Another potential scenario is that he resigns himself — something he’s previously said he won’t do.

For investors, the key metric to watch has become the French-German bond spread — a measure of risk between what’s perceived as Europe’s safest country and one of its riskiest. The gap is likely to keep widening to 100 basis points, said Nicolas Forest, chief investment officer at Candriam.

“There’s no panic in the market, but clearly some investors are selling,” he said. “The probability of a dissolution of the National Assembly is more likely.”

What Bloomberg Strategists say...

“French government bonds will likely fall further from here as another prime minister succumbs to the lack of political will to tackle the deficit, raising the likelihood of another election to break the political deadlock.

—Conor Cooper, Macro Squawk. Click here to read the full analysis French banks bore the brunt of the equity selloff. European banks are particularly vulnerable to swings in French debt.

Their exposure to French sovereign bonds was around €500 billion ($583 billion) a year ago, according to data from the EBA’s 2024 EU-wide transparency exercise published last November, cited by Bloomberg Intelligence. This represented 23% of total sovereign bonds held by EU banks, more than any other country in the region.

French Markets Sink Amid Growing Fears of Political Paralysis_2

Societe Generale SA, Credit Agricole SA and BNP Paribas SA fell more than 5%. A Barclays Plc basket tracking stocks that generate more than 30% of their revenue in France dropped 3.8%. Even so, the balance sheets of the country’s banks are still strong, said Rafael Quina, senior director of financial institutions at Fitch Ratings.

“It’s a clear knee-jerk market move,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi. “I’m not that concerned for my portfolio of French stocks as their business outside of France will compensate if activity slows domestically.”

About 80% of the CAC 40’s sales are generated overseas, according to data from Citigroup Inc., implying a low earnings risk to companies such as LVMH, Sanofi SA and TotalEnergies SE.

French Markets Sink Amid Growing Fears of Political Paralysis_3

Still, Paris-listed stocks have lagged the rest of Europe. The benchmark CAC 40 is up just 7.6% this year, compared with a 12% rally in the broader Stoxx 600 Index.

“It’s not clear if it will get much worse. It depends of upcoming political discussions,” said Christophe Boucher, chief investment officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions in Paris. “But today, of course, it’s a surprise and a shock.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Blue River

Technical Analysis

Domestic politics dominated global markets today, driving sharp moves in both European and Asian trading sessions. In Europe, political instability in France rattled sentiment, while in Japan, optimism over new leadership sparked a broad equity surge and a dramatic selloff in the Yen.

In European, CAC 40 slumped and Euro is sold off broadly, after French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and his newly formed government resigned just hours after unveiling their cabinet lineup. The collapse, just 14 hours after formation, deepened France’s ongoing political turmoil and marked the shortest-lived administration in modern history.

Lecornu cited the impossibility of governing amid threats from both coalition partners and the opposition to topple his government. The fallout was immediate, with opposition parties calling on President Macron to resign or trigger early elections. The episode underscores growing public fatigue and political fragmentation that risk eroding investor confidence in French assets.

Yet, Yen’s dramatic selloff overshadowed Europe’s turmoil. The currency plunged below 150 per dollar for the first time since early August and touched a record low versus Euro, as Japanese equities soared. Traders rushed into risk assets, betting that Prime Minister-designate Sanae Takaichi’s incoming administration will prioritize fiscal expansion and encourage continued BoJ accommodation.

The move rippled across bond markets, sending short-term JGB yields to two-week lows as traders cut back expectations for further tightening. Market pricing for a BoJ hike by year-end fell sharply to near 40% from 68% at the end of last week, as confidence grew that the central bank will stay on hold through October.

Governor Kazuo Ueda’s cautious tone in recent weeks aligns with this view, suggesting that policymakers see little urgency to resume tightening. With political stability and fiscal stimulus prospects improving, investors appear comfortable re-engaging in carry trades, accelerating Yen’s decline.

For now, Dollar leads as the day’s strongest performer, followed by Loonie and Aussie. At the other end, Yen remains the weakest, trailed by Euro and Swiss Franc, while Sterling and Kiwi hover mid-pack in largely risk-driven trade.

In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.15%. DAX is up 0.25%. CAC is down -1.27%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.044 at 4.739. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 2.723. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 4.75%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.67%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.52%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.015 to 1.680.

ECB’s Lane: No pre-commitment on rate path, policy to stay data-driven

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reiterated in a speech today that monetary policy will remain data-driven and meeting-by-meeting, with “no pre-commitment to a particular rate path.” He emphasized said the ECB’s policy decisions will hinge not only on the baseline inflation forecast but also on “shifts in the risk distribution”.

The downside inflation risks outlined in September include a stronger Euro, weaker export demand caused by higher global tariffs, and the possibility of rising market volatility linked to trade tensions.

Conversely, Lane highlighted several upside risks that could keep inflation elevated. These include “fragmentation of global supply chains”; surge in defence and infrastructure spending that boosts medium-term demand; and climate-related disruptions.

He elaborated that persistent Euro movements tends to have “multi-year impact” on both inflation and growth, with the size of the impact depending on its source. Appreciation stemming from external weakness or capital flows tends to depress inflation more sharply. On the other hand, changes driven by domestic demand strength or domestic risk premiums carry a smaller inflationary force.

Eurozone Sentix rises to -5.4, mood brightens from exaggerated pessimism

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone improved in October, with Sentix Investor Confidence Index rising from -9.2 to -5.4, topping forecasts of -7.7. Current Situation Index advanced from -18.8 to -16.0, while Expectations climbed sharply from 0.8 to 5.8.

Sentix said the latest data initially looks like the long-awaited economic turning point, with strong improvements seen across Germany, Austria, and Switzerland as well. However, it cautioned that the improvement may not mark a lasting turnaround. Most country-level readings and the Eurozone composite still sit below August’s levels, implying that September’s pessimism was “negatively exaggerated”.

Meanwhile, Sentix also noted that inflation remains a key worry, with its related index barely rising to -17.75. Still, markets appear to expect that the ECB will maintain a steady policy stance, and perhaps even lean slightly supportive, despite mounting fiscal pressures. Sentix warned that such expectations may have a “limited half-life,” as growing debt levels and persistent inflation could restrain the scope for policy easing in the months ahead.

Eurozone retail sales edge up 0.1% mom in August, momentum muted

Eurozone retail sales rose 0.1% mom in August, matching expectations and signaling only a modest pickup in consumer activity. The increase was driven by 0.3% rise in food, drinks, and tobacco sales and 0.4% gain in automotive fuel, partly offset by a -0.1% decline in non-food product demand.

Across the wider European Union, retail sales were flat on the month. Among member states, Lithuania (+1.7%), Cyprus and Malta (+1.5%), and Sweden (+1.1%) posted the strongest gains, while Romania (-4.0%), Poland (-0.8%), and Luxembourg and Portugal (both -0.7%) recorded notable declines.

BoJ report highlights resilient recovery but tariffs cloud wage, capex outlook

The BoJ’s Regional Economic Report released today painted a mixed picture of recovery, with assessments for eight regions left unchanged and one downgraded. Most local economies were described as “recovering moderately” or “picking up” .

Businesses in some areas reported that they may scale back wage hikes if tariffs begin to bite into profits, a risk that could slow Japan’s nascent wage-led inflation. Still, several regions pointed to ongoing wage pressures from tight labor markets and rising living costs, suggesting that the underlying trend in income growth remains intact for now.

The survey also revealed continued commitment to capital investment, particularly in automation and IT-related projects, as firms seek efficiency gains. However, a number of companies plan to delay or reassess spending amid uncertainty over global demand and the evolving impact of tariffs.

WTI oil recovers ahead of 60 after OPEC+ opts for measured output hike

Oil prices recovered modestly in today after the OPEC+ alliance confirmed a small production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for November, matching the rise announced for October. The restrained decision eased fears of a larger supply boost.

Following Sunday’s ministerial meeting, OPEC+ said the move was made “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals.” The statement emphasized low global inventories as evidence that supply-demand conditions remain tight enough to justify a gradual output approach.

The limited hike contrasts with speculation that major producers—particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia—might push for a faster restoration of supply to reclaim market share. Instead, the decision reflects caution amid volatile demand signals and lingering uncertainty over global growth.

Technically, for WTI oil, some consolidations would be seen above 60.62 temporary low for the near term. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 63.49 minor resistance holds.

Break of 60.62 will resume the whole decline from 78.87. Next target is 100% projection of 71.34 to 61.90 from 66.70 at 57.26. However, firm break of 63.49 will bring stronger rebound back to 66.70 resistance instead.

EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8704; (P) 0.8717; (R1) 0.8727;

EUR/GBP’s fall from 0.8750 resumed by breaking through 0.8688 and intraday bias is back on the downside for 0.8631 support. Decisive break there will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bearish. On the upside, though, above 0.8728 will bring retest of 0.8750 first. Firm break there will resume the larger rally towards 0.8867 fibonacci level.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8221 medium term bottom is seen as a corrective move. While further rally cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8867. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, firm break of 0.8631 support will be the first sign that this corrective bounce has completed. Sustained trading below 55 W EMA (now at 0.8539) will confirm, and bring retest of 0.8221 low.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Gold and silver started the week on a strong note, supported by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner than anticipated.

The rally, which pushed gold to fresh all-time highs, reflects mounting investor unease over the U.S. government shutdown and persistent signs of economic strain in major markets.

Fed Rate-Cut Bets Lift Precious Metals

Market data indicate that traders are now pricing in a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with another move likely in December, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool. Lower yields tend to enhance the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and silver.

“The shift in rate expectations is the key driver behind the metals’ strength,” said a senior commodities strategist at JP Morgan.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has raised fresh concerns about fiscal stability and potential delays in the release of economic data. Investors are turning to precious metals as a hedge against policy uncertainty and a possible slowdown in consumer and business spending.

Broader Macro Drivers Strengthen Safe-Haven Flows

Outside the U.S., policy shifts and geopolitical tensions have also buoyed safe-haven demand. Japan’s election of fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi as the ruling party’s new leader signals a likely delay in the Bank of Japan’s rate normalization, weakening the yen and adding support to gold.

In Europe, slowing manufacturing data and persistent inflation have reinforced investor appetite for assets viewed as reliable stores of value.

Silver, often seen as both an industrial and monetary metal, is benefiting from dual support—rising safe-haven demand and expectations for stronger industrial use in solar technology and electronics.

Outlook: Consolidation Before Next Move

While short-term technical indicators suggest both metals could pause after recent gains, analysts see continued upside in the months ahead. With the Fed expected to turn more dovish and global uncertainty intensifying, gold and silver remain firmly positioned as preferred assets for capital preservation.

As one market analyst noted, “Unless there’s a dramatic policy shift or a surge in economic optimism, the path of least resistance for gold and silver remains higher.”

Short-Term Forecast

Gold is expected to trade between $3,898–$3,977, with momentum favoring an upside break above $3,945. Silver remains bullish above $48.00, targeting $49.35–$50.00 amid strong demand for safe-haven and industrial purposes.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold – Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating near $3,932 after encountering resistance at $3,945, which is close to the upper trendline of its rising channel. The price remains well above the 50-day EMA at $3,828 and the 200-day EMA at $3,656, reflecting a steady bullish bias.

If buyers manage to push above $3,945, the following upside targets could appear near $3,977 and $4,010, aligning with Fibonacci extensions. On the downside, immediate support is seen at $3,898 and $3,868.

The RSI at 69 shows strong momentum but signals caution as gold nears overbought levels. Overall, as long as gold holds above $3,868, the broader trend remains positive, with pullbacks likely to attract fresh buying interest.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver – Chart

Silver (XAG/USD) is consolidating near $48.60 after testing resistance around $48.70, staying within its rising channel. The 50-day EMA at $46.39 continues to provide solid support, while the 200-day EMA at $42.91 underpins the broader uptrend. A breakout above $48.70 could pave the way for $49.35 and $50.02, signaling renewed bullish momentum.

However, a brief pullback toward $48.00 or $47.74 wouldn’t be surprising before another push higher. The RSI near 69 suggests strong momentum but hints at near-term exhaustion.

Overall, as long as silver holds above $48.00, the technical structure favors buyers, with dips offering potential re-entry points in anticipation of a move toward the psychological $50.00 level.

Source: fxempire

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Forex

Economic

Several European companies have frozen hiring or cut jobs this year, citing difficult economic conditions exacerbated by U.S. tariffs.

Here are some of the companies that announced layoffs:

CAR AND CAR PARTS MAKERS

* RENAULT: The French carmaker confirmed it is planning cost cuts but said it has no figures to report yet, on Saturday after a newsletter reported it would cut 3,000 jobs by year-end in support services at its headquarters in the Paris suburb of Boulogne-Billancourt and other locations worldwide.

* BOSCH: The German home appliance manufacturer will cut 13,000 jobs as it battles sluggish demand, high costs and pressure from rivals, it said on September 25.

* DAIMLER TRUCK: The truckmaker confirmed media reports on August 1 that it would cut 2,000 jobs across its plants in the U.S. and Mexico, on top of the previously announced 5,000 job cuts in Germany.

* STELLANTIS: The automaker expanded its voluntary redundancy scheme for Italy, bringing the total planned workforce reduction to almost 2,500 in 2025, it said on June 10.

* VOLKSWAGEN: The company’s CFO said on April 30 it had cut headcount in Germany by around 7,000 since starting cost savings in late 2023.

* VOLVO CARS: The Swedish carmaker will cut 3,000 mostly white-collar jobs as part of a wider restructuring, it said on May 26.

BANKS

* COMMERZBANK: The German bank said on May 14 it had agreed with the works council on terms to cut around 3,900 jobs by 2028.

* LLOYDS: The British bank will consider the dismissal of around half of 3,000 staff to cut costs, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on September 4.

ENERGY

* OMV: The Austrian oil and gas company plans to cut 2,000 positions, or a twelfth of its global workforce, the Kurier newspaper reported on September 4.

INDUSTRIALS AND ENGINEERING

* STMICROELECTRONICS: The French-Italian chipmaker’s CEO said on June 4 he expected 5,000 staff to leave the company in the next three years, including 2,800 job cuts announced in 2025.

CONSUMER GOODS

* BURBERRY: The British luxury brand will shed 1,700 jobs or around a fifth of its global workforce to cut costs, it said on May 14.

* LVMH: The Financial Times reported on May 1, citing an internal video, that the luxury group’s wine and spirits unit Moet Hennessy would cut its workforce by about 1,200 employees.

OTHERS

*JUST EAT TAKEAWAY: The food delivery company’s German unit Lieferando plans to cut 2,000 jobs from end-2025 to optimise the model of its delivery service, the company said on July 17.

* LUFTHANSA: The German airline group said on September 28 it would cut 4,000 administrative jobs by 2030.

* NOVO NORDISK: The Danish pharmaceutical company will cut 9,000 jobs globally, the company said on September 10.

Source: Investing

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Adam

Commodity

Market Overview

Crude oil prices advanced over 1% to around $61.7 per barrel as traders balanced OPEC+’s limited 137,000 bpd production increase for November against heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The modest supply adjustment—unchanged from October—signaled the group’s cautious stance amid fragile global demand.

Despite easing earlier output cuts totaling 3.85 million bpd, OPEC+ maintained flexibility to pause or reverse changes if market conditions shift. Meanwhile, natural gas prices held firm as investors weighed potential disruptions to energy flows against stable inventories and seasonal demand.

Overall, geopolitical tensions have reinforced oil’s risk premium, tempering the impact of new supply additions.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas (NG) Price Chart

Natural gas is holding steady near $3.41 after bouncing from the 200-day EMA at $3.29, signaling short-term stability. The 50-day EMA at $3.37 now acts as immediate support, while resistance stands at $3.42 and $3.49.

A break above these levels could open the way toward $3.58 and $3.60, aligning with the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The RSI sits near 53, suggesting balanced momentum with mild bullish bias.

If buyers sustain control above $3.37, upward continuation looks likely, but a close below $3.33 could shift sentiment back toward $3.24. Overall, price action remains constructive as long as natural gas holds above its moving averages.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

WTI crude oil is attempting to break above its descending channel after finding solid support near $60.41. The price has rebounded toward $61.87, testing the 50-day EMA at $61.82, while the 200-day EMA sits higher at $62.94, creating short-term resistance.

A sustained close above $62.57 could signal a shift in momentum toward $63.48 and $64.19. However, failure to clear the EMAs may invite renewed selling pressure back toward $61.55 and $60.41. RSI has recovered from oversold territory, now hovering around 59, suggesting mild bullish momentum but not yet confirming a strong reversal.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

Brent crude oil is testing a potential breakout above its descending channel after rebounding from support at $64.02. The price now trades near $65.51, closely aligned with the 50-day EMA at $65.53. A sustained move above this level could open the way toward $66.60 and $67.48, where the 200-day EMA and prior highs converge.

On the downside, $64.81 and $64.02 remain key supports to watch if momentum weakens. RSI has climbed to around 59, reflecting improving buying interest but not yet signaling overbought conditions.