Trump’s Tariff Reversal Brings Conditional Relief for Indian Agricultural Exporters

Economic

Summary:

Trump’s rollback of tariffs on over 200 food items, including tea, coffee, and spices, offers Indian farmers and exporters relief amid U.S. inflation concerns....

Tariff rollback opens window for India’s agri-trade revival

Indian agricultural exporters are poised to benefit from U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent decision to eliminate tariffs on more than 200 food items, a policy shift driven by mounting pressure from American consumers facing rising grocery prices. The move removes a key trade barrier for Indian goods like tea, coffee, spices, and cashew nuts, which had previously faced sharply higher tariffs under Trump’s reciprocal trade regime.

While exporters from the EU and Vietnam endured 15–20% import duties, India faced steeper challenges, with certain goods taxed up to 50%, alongside a 25% punitive levy on Russian oil imports from India. These tariffs notably impacted India's export volumes, with September 2025 shipments to the U.S. dropping nearly 12% year-on-year to $5.43 billion.

Boost for premium and value-added products

Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), estimates that $2.5–3 billion worth of Indian exports could benefit from the tariff rollbacks. He emphasized that the new trade climate favors premium and value-added products, such as specialty spices or processed teas, as they are less vulnerable to price pressures and more in tune with rising U.S. consumer expectations.

The exemptions are also seen as a positive signal for ongoing U.S.–India trade negotiations, which had grown tense following earlier tariff hikes. A senior government official highlighted that Indian farm exporters especially in categories like fruits, vegetables, and cashews now have an opportunity to regain momentum in the U.S. market.

Limited gains amid structural headwinds

Despite the optimism, analysts caution that the scope of benefit may be limited. Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative, pointed out that India’s export portfolio is less diversified across key exempt products, such as citrus fruits, bananas, melons, and juices, where Latin American and ASEAN producers have a stronger foothold. As a result, India’s gains may remain focused on spices and niche horticulture, rather than achieving a broad trade recovery.

Moreover, uncertainty remains around whether Indian goods will be exempt from both the 25% reciprocal tariffs and the higher 50% levy, or just the former. Exporters are also grappling with persistent logistics costs, intense competition from Vietnam and Indonesia, and the challenge of meeting stringent U.S. quality standards, all of which could blunt the relief offered by the tariff rollback.

While Trump’s decision provides much-needed breathing room for Indian agricultural exporters, the overall recovery depends on more than just tariff adjustments. For sustained benefits, India must focus on improving logistical efficiency, enhancing product quality, and expanding into higher-value agricultural segments. The move lays groundwork for improved trade ties but does not, in itself, guarantee a reversal of India’s export slump.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

GDP contracts but defies worst-case predictions

Japan’s economy contracted by 0.4% in the third quarter of 2025, a smaller decline than the 0.6% forecasted by economists. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank 1.8%, also faring better than the anticipated 2.5% fall. This tempered contraction reflects a complex economic landscape in which resilient domestic consumption mitigated the drag from exports and residential investment.

Government consumption rose by 0.5% while private consumption edged up by 0.1%, signaling continued household and public sector spending even amid broader economic uncertainty. Public demand in particular contributed positively, adding 0.1 percentage point to GDP.

However, the private sector was more mixed. While consumer activity held up, private demand overall was the biggest drag on GDP, falling by 0.4% and subtracting 0.3 percentage point from growth. The key culprit was a sharp 9.4% drop in residential investment, attributed in part to stricter energy efficiency regulations introduced in April 2024. These new standards may have initially deterred new projects but are expected to have diminishing impact in the coming quarters.

Export weakness softens despite U.S. tariff relief

Exports fell by 1.2% compared to Q2, reversing the 2.3% growth seen previously. This decline contributed to a 0.2 percentage point reduction in GDP. Japan’s export sector has struggled for much of 2025, especially due to lingering U.S. tariffs. However, there was a late improvement: Tokyo signed a deal with Washington in July to lower tariffs from 25% to 15%, effective August 7, helping Japan’s shipments rebound by September.

Economists like Harumi Taguchi from S&P Global Market Intelligence expect a GDP rebound in the near term, noting that easing geopolitical trade tensions and recovering order flows especially from the U.S. and China are likely to support Japanese industry.

Geopolitics cloud recovery outlook

Despite improving economic data, geopolitical tensions present a downside risk. Newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s firm stance on Taiwan describing a potential Chinese invasion as a threat to Japan’s survival has inflamed relations with Beijing. In response, China issued travel warnings and strong diplomatic objections. This is especially significant as Chinese tourists accounted for 22.8% of Japan’s visitors in 2025, a critical segment for the hospitality and retail sectors.

Japan’s Q3 data highlights the fragile balance in its post-pandemic economic trajectory. Domestic consumption and public spending remain stable, while external demand faces geopolitical and structural headwinds. With key factors like tariff relief, housing policy adjustment, and tourism recovery in play, Japan’s economy could see moderate growth ahead assuming political risks with China don’t escalate into broader economic fallout.

Source: CNBC

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Samantha Luan

Stocks

Economic

Airbus has unveiled its Global Market Forecast 2025 for the region, spotlighting the Middle East as one of the fastest-growing aviation regions over the next two decades.

The forecast reveals that the region's in-service fleet will surge from 1,480 aircraft in 2024 to 3,700 by 2044. Airbus forecasts a requirement for 4,080 new passenger aircraft deliveries in the Middle East in the next 20 years comprising 2,380 single-aisle and 1,700 widebody jets.

Widebody aircraft will represent 42% of total demand - the highest share globally and more than double the world average of 20%. This positions the Middle East as the leading driver of global widebody growth, fuelled by its strategic geographic location as the geographic centre of gravity for worldwide air traffic growth continues to move eastwards.

Passenger traffic in the region is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.4%, supported by robust economic development, tourism, and trade. The population is projected to increase by 240 million over the same period, further amplifying demand for air travel.

"The Middle East is transforming global aviation, and the forecast fleet expansion is truly significant, particularly when it comes to widebodies. This region is becoming the long-haul hub now and into the future. Airbus is proud to be partnering closely with customers in the region, delivering the most efficient, latest-generation aircraft, end-to-end support, and sustainable solutions," said Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus in Africa and Middle East region.

As the aviation network and traffic continues to develop in the Middle Eastern region, Airbus forecasts a need for more than 265,000 people to be employed in the sector in the next 20 years including 69,000 new pilots, nearly 64,000 new technicians and 132,000 Cabin Crew.

The regional commercial aviation services market as a whole is valued at some US$30bn over the next 20 years. The services growth will be principally in maintaining aircraft availability, training, flight operations and Air Traffic Management solutions, cabin upgrades and connectivity

Source: TradingView

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Economic

Tariff strategy pivots amid economic pressure

In a notable policy shift, the Trump administration announced on Friday a rollback of tariffs on several agricultural goods, including coffee, fruit, and beef products. This marks a reversal from earlier assertions that tariffs wouldn’t raise prices, as inflation data showed U.S. food costs rose 2.7% year-on-year in September. President Trump’s admission that coffee prices were “a little bit high” reflects a pragmatic, if politically motivated, acknowledgment of economic fundamentals.

Simultaneously, the U.S. struck a major trade deal with Switzerland, reducing tariffs on Swiss imports from 39% to 15%. In exchange, Swiss companies pledged to invest $200 billion in the U.S. by 2028. The move signals a strategic attempt to rebalance trade relations while supporting domestic investment — but also underscores how political maneuvering eventually confronts economic constraints.

Markets signal stabilization as AI volatility wanes

U.S. equity markets showed signs of recovery Friday, suggesting that the recent AI-related volatility may be cooling. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.13%, halting a three-day slide, while the S&P 500 remained virtually flat and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.65%. This shift came after a rough stretch driven by concerns of overvaluation in AI-linked equities.

The rebound in tech coincided with new confidence-building moves, such as Berkshire Hathaway’s revealed $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet, a decision attributed to the investment team rather than Warren Buffett himself. The position indicates ongoing institutional belief in the long-term strength of major tech players, even amid short-term correction fears.

Luxury sector regains luster as China reawakens

While concerns over China’s economic slowdown have weighed heavily on global luxury brands in 2025, new comments from leading executives suggest a turning point may be near. At the JPMorgan Global Luxury and Brands Conference in Paris, CFOs from Prada and other leading houses expressed cautious optimism about shifting Chinese spending behavior. The revival is being driven by urban middle- and upper-class consumers returning to high-end retail after a year of subdued activity.

However, JPMorgan’s Chiara Battistini warned against overexcitement, noting the recovery is being compared against a particularly weak baseline. The luxury rally, if it sustains, could benefit from not only Chinese demand but also resilient spending patterns in the U.S. and improved trade sentiment following the U.S.-Switzerland deal.

Despite earlier rhetoric, the Trump administration’s partial retreat from protectionist trade measures highlights the limits of political control over economic dynamics. With inflation pressure on consumers and markets showing signs of repricing tech and luxury valuations, 2025 is shaping into a year of economic reality checks. Investors should watch not only for further trade realignments but also for sustained signals from consumers both in the U.S. and China to gauge the direction of global growth sectors in the final stretch of the year.

Source: CNBC

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Daily News

[Quick Facts]

1. Japan's Finance Minister: Stimulus package to exceed $110 billion.

2. Japan's economy shrinks for the first time in six quarters, adding uncertainty to BoJ's rate hike path.

3. Iran's Foreign Minister claims uranium enrichment activities have been fully halted nationwide.

4. Lane: Risks of slowing inflation should not be ignored; the risk of a December rate cut can not be underestimated.

5. The US Government exempts agricultural products from the "Reciprocal Tariffs" list.

6. Miran: Data supports rate cuts; Fed should lean more dovish.

7. Logan: Hard to support December rate cuts.

8. Schmid: May oppose rate cut again at December meeting.

9. Greer: The US and Switzerland reach a Trade Deal, cutting tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%.

[News Details]

Japan's Finance Minister: Stimulus package to exceed $110 billion

According to a report by Nikkei on Sunday, Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated after meeting with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba that the country’s economic stimulus package would exceed JP¥17 trillion (approximately US$110 billion). Since taking office in October, Sanae has pledged to formulate a large-scale spending plan to mitigate the economic impact of rising living costs and boost investment in growth areas such as AI and semiconductors. The stimulus package is expected to be finalized after approval at a cabinet meeting on November 21st.

Japan's economy shrinks for the first time in six quarters, adding uncertainty to BoJ's rate hike path

Based on the preliminary data released on Monday, Japan's real GDP contracted 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, equivalent to an annualized decline of 1.8%, marking the first negative growth in six quarters. The data revealed that external demand was the primary drag, reducing GDP by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of higher US tariffs on Japanese exports. Meanwhile, housing investment plunged 9.4%, another major negative factor, though economists attributed this to temporary regulatory changes and expect a gradual recovery.

This economic contraction is likely to reinforce the Bank of Japan's rationale for delaying further rate hikes. Markets believe weak economic data will support the central bank's stance of maintaining current policies until next year, further complicating the timeline for future rate increases. At a critical juncture where the BoJ is preparing to exit its ultra-loose monetary policy, this economic downturn provides more room for caution in policy adjustments and introduces new uncertainty into the central bank's normalization process.

Iran's Foreign Minister claims uranium enrichment activities have been fully halted nationwide

According to the Associated Press, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Sunday that authorities in Tehran have stopped all uranium enrichment activities across the country. Responding to reporters' questions, Araghchi made the most direct remarks to date on Iran's nuclear program. In June, Israel and the US bombed Iran's uranium enrichment facilities. Araghchi said there are no undeclared uranium enrichment activities in Iran, and all facilities are under IAEA safeguards. Currently, uranium enrichment is not being conducted because the relevant facilities were attacked.

Lane: Risks of slowing inflation should not be ignored; the risk of a December rate cut can not be underestimated

In a speech on the 16th, European Central Bank Governing Council member Philip Lane stated that the eurozone economy has shown resilience, with slow but sustained growth. He said the risk of slowing inflation should not be ignored, highlighting that a further interest rate cut in December is a possibility that "cannot be underestimated."

The Finnish central bank governor pointed to low energy prices, a stronger euro, and declining wage and service inflation as factors that could push overall inflation significantly below the ECB's 2% target. The risk of another rate cut in December should not be underestimated.

The US Government exempts agricultural products from the "Reciprocal Tariffs" list

The White House announced the latest executive order signed by President Trump, further adjusting the scope of the "reciprocal tariffs," excluding certain agricultural products from the additional tariffs previously imposed under the Reciprocal Tariffs Executive Order. The order noted that, based on assessments of domestic demand and production capacity for related products, as well as the latest recommendations from government agencies, Trump deemed it necessary to revise the tariff list to address the "national emergency" declared in the original order. The updated tariff exemption list and potential adjustments for "allied partners" will take effect at 00:01 EST on November 13th, 2025. The order also mandates revisions to the Harmonized Tariff Schedule and stipulates the handling of potential tariff refunds.

Miran: Data supports rate cuts; Fed should lean more dovish

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran stated in a speech on Friday that recent economic data support the case for Fed rate cuts. Since the September FOMC meeting, he said, all the data points to a dovish stance— inflation data is better than expected, and labor market data is weaker. On the question of further rate cuts, all of this should push the Fed toward a more dovish position, not the opposite.

Logan: Hard to support December rate cuts

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in a Friday speech that she is concerned about persistently high and potentially rising inflation, which may take too long to return to the Fed’s 2% target. Unless there is compelling evidence that inflation is falling faster than she expects or that the labor market is cooling more sharply than its current gradual pace, she finds it hard to support another rate cut. Before seeing solid evidence that inflation is steadily moving toward the 2% target, she believes a moderately restrictive policy stance remains appropriate.

Schmid: May oppose rate cut again at December meeting

Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said on Friday that his concerns about "too hot" inflation go well beyond the narrow effects of tariffs alone. He argued that the current cooling in the US labor market stems primarily from structural changes, not issues that lower interest rates can resolve. Further rate cuts could undermine the Fed's efforts to achieve its 2% inflation target. This suggests he may oppose a rate cut at the December meeting.

Greer: The US and Switzerland reach a Trade Deal, cutting tariffs on Swiss goods to 15%

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said, "We've essentially reached a deal with Switzerland." Duties will be reduced to 15%, and details will be announced by the White House on Friday. He added that Switzerland might be next; the U.S. actually reached an agreement with Switzerland, and the details will be published on the White House website today. He told reporters that US tariffs on Swiss goods will drop from 39% to 15%, while Switzerland has committed to investing $200 billion in the US. Greer said, "They're going to send a lot of manufacturing here to the United States — pharmaceuticals, gold smelting, railway equipment — so we’re really excited about that deal and what it means for American manufacturing." He added that Switzerland has also pledged to purchase more Boeing aircraft.

[Today's Focus]

UTC+8 16:15 ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos Speaks

UTC+8 21:20 BoE Monetary Policy Committee Member Catherine Mann Speaks

UTC+8 21:30 Canada October CPI

UTC+8 22:45 ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane Speaks

UTC+8 23:00 US August Construction Spending MoM

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his attacks against Republican lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene on Sunday, dismissing her claim that his criticism was endangering her and saying he did not believe anyone was targeting her.

Greene said on Saturday that Trump's online criticism had unleashed a surge of threats directed at her. On Sunday morning, she told CNN that Trump calling her a traitor was the "most hurtful" part of his remarks.

Trump repeated the insult hours later. "Marjorie 'Traitor' Greene," he said, referring to the lawmaker. "I don't think her life is in danger...I don't think anybody cares about her," the president told reporters before boarding Air Force One on Sunday night for a return to Washington, D.C. from his Mar-a-Lago social club in Florida.

Greene, a U.S. House of Representatives member from Georgia who was long known as a Trump loyalist, has recently taken positions at odds with the president. She said on Saturday she has been contacted by private security firms warning about her safety and that harsh attacks against her have previously resulted in death threats.

She attributed her split with the president to her support for releasing records related to the late financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Trump has dismissed the furor over the Epstein case as a "hoax" pushed by Democrats, but Greene on Wednesday was one of only four House Republicans who joined Democrats in signing a petition to force a vote on releasing the full Justice Department files related to Epstein.

The dramatic rupture between two longtime allies suggests a deeper fracture within Trump's Republican base and raises questions about the stability of his support on the far right of the ideological spectrum.

Trump broke with Greene on Friday night in a withering social media post in which he referred to Greene as "Wacky" and a "ranting lunatic" who complained he would not take her calls.

He continued his criticism of her with more social media posts over the weekend, calling her a "Lightweight Congresswoman," "Traitor" and a "disgrace" to the Republican Party.

The president also wrote that conservative voters in Greene's district might consider a primary challenger and that he would support the right candidate against her in next year's congressional election.

Despite his attacks on Greene, Trump on Sunday night wrote on social media that "House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files, because we have nothing to hide ..."

Over the weekend, Trump had persistently pushed back against reporters' questions about releasing the Epstein files. Reflecting his often combative relationship with media, at one point he said "quiet, quiet piggy" in response to a question from a female reporter.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the clash between Greene and Trump or his remarks to the reporter.

Source: Investing

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Economic

Stocks

Japan’s tourism sector reels from Beijing’s travel advisory

Investor sentiment in Asia was shaken Monday as tensions between China and Japan escalated, with Beijing issuing a travel and study advisory warning its citizens about visits to Japan. This move triggered a sell-off in Japan’s tourism-exposed stocks, dragging the Nikkei 225 down by 0.72% to 50,011.53 and the Topix by 0.44%.

Luxury and leisure brands took the biggest hit. Shiseido, heavily reliant on Chinese consumer spending, plummeted 11%. Department store group Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings dropped over 10%, while Oriental Land, the operator of Tokyo Disney Resort, shed 4.74%. Shares of ANA Holdings, Japan’s leading airline, fell by 3.48%.

The travel warning comes at a fragile moment for Japan’s economy, which contracted 0.4% in the third quarter its first shrinkage in six quarters though this was less severe than the 0.6% decline forecast by markets.

Broader Asian markets reflect divergence in growth outlooks

Outside of Japan, Asian markets posted varied performances. South Korea’s Kospi index stood out with a 1.78% surge, likely boosted by tech optimism and robust domestic trading. The Kosdaq also edged up 0.68%.

In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped 0.51% to 26,440.75, as investor caution prevailed, and the mainland’s CSI 300 was flat, reflecting subdued enthusiasm amid persistent economic concerns. The Shanghai Composite also lost ground, slipping 0.36%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 benchmark closed 0.29% lower at 8,609.10, amid profit-taking and mixed commodity signals. Meanwhile, traders awaited macroeconomic releases such as Thailand’s Q3 GDP and Singapore’s trade balance to gain further regional cues.

Wall Street recovery offers limited support to Asia

Friday’s intraday comeback in the U.S. stock market offered only mild relief to Asia. The Nasdaq Composite reversed losses to gain 0.13% to 22,900.59, after a steep tech-led drop earlier in the week. The S&P 500 finished flat at 6,734.11, while the Dow Jones fell 0.65% to 47,147.48 despite recovering from an earlier plunge of nearly 600 points.

The reversal in U.S. equities, driven by bargain-hunting in tech stocks, indicated investor resilience but failed to fully lift Asian sentiment, especially with geopolitical risks overshadowing fundamentals in parts of the region.

The mixed performance in Asia reflects a complex mix of geopolitical headwinds, export vulnerabilities, and domestic economic indicators. Japan remains particularly exposed to diplomatic strains with China, given its dependence on tourism and external demand. While South Korea’s tech sector provided a bright spot, the broader Asia-Pacific outlook remains fragile, with traders closely watching upcoming data and any policy signals from China and Japan as tensions continue to evolve.