Trump Says US and Iran to Talk Next Week, Mideast War Is ‘Over’

Middle East Situation

Summary:

President Trump confirmed the U.S. will meet with Iran next week but downplayed the need for a nuclear deal, citing U.S. airstrikes that he claims destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites.

President Donald Trump said the US would hold a meeting with Iran next week but cast doubt on the need for a diplomatic agreement, citing the damage that American bombing had done to its key nuclear sites.

“We’re going to talk to them next week,” Trump said Wednesday during a press conference during the NATO summit at The Hague. “We may sign an agreement. I don’t know, to me, I don’t think it’s necessary.”

He reiterated that the US bombing of the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow facilities had “obliterated” them, again disputing an American intelligence assessment that said the strikes only set back Tehran’s nuclear program by a matter of months.

Trump this week has taken credit for brokering an end to the conflict between Israel and Iran, which had threatened to escalate into a wider regional war and upend energy markets.

The president said Wednesday that the conflict was effectively “over” after the US bombing mission — though he also warned: “Can it start again? I guess someday it can. It could maybe start soon,” he said.

As the missiles fell silent and oil markets plunged — wiping out most of the increase during 12 days of war — focus has switched to the next stage of nuclear diplomacy with Iran. The United Nations atomic watchdog said Tuesday that inspections in the country should resume “as soon as possible” to determine what’s happened to Iran’s stocks of uranium enriched to 60% levels, not far short of the 90% required to build a bomb.

The IAEA says it last verified those inventories a few days before Israel’s June 13 attack, and their whereabouts is now unknown.

Trump said the US bunker-buster strikes had eliminated some key risks by burying the country’s materials under “granite, concrete and steel.”

“We think everything nuclear is down there,” he said. “They didn’t take it out.”

Iran’s foreign ministry said Wednesday that its nuclear installations were “badly damaged” by US airstrikes, the first such comments by Tehran. The ministry didn’t give further details and said authorities were still reviewing the situation on the ground.

Trump cited that assessment during his NATO press conference, as well as a statement by Israel’s nuclear agency that said the Fordow site had been rendered inoperable and Tehran’s ability to make a nuclear weapon set back by “many years.”

Earlier this month, Trump had said Iran was “weeks away” from having an atomic weapon, though some experts and US intelligence estimates said it could take months or years for the nation to develop a weapon. Iran maintains that its nuclear program has purely civilian purposes, and that it’s entitled to pursue that goal under international law.

Israel’s attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites killed several top generals and atomic scientists. Iran countered by firing drones and ballistic missiles into Israel. Both sides have declared victory.

Trump said both nations are “tired, exhausted. They fought very, very hard and very viciously, very violently, and they were both satisfied to go home and get out.”

The president didn’t say at what level US-Iran talks would resume. Before the Israeli attack, his envoy Steve Witkoff had taken the lead in five rounds of talks with the Islamic Republic, seeking a nuclear deal that would effectively replace the 2015 agreement that Trump abandoned during his first term.

Source: Bloomberg

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Thomas

Cryptocurrency

A new report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) challenged the notion that stablecoins can serve as money in a modern financial system.

According to the BIS Annual Economic Report 2025, stablecoins fail the fundamental tests of “singleness,” “elasticity” and “integrity,” three critical criteria that define effective monetary instruments.

The BIS described stablecoins as “digital bearer instruments” that resemble financial assets more than actual money. “Stablecoins perform poorly when assessed against the three tests for serving as the mainstay of the monetary system,” the report said.

Unlike central bank-backed money, which is accepted “at par” and requires no background checks, private entities issue stablecoins and often trade at fluctuating rates. This undermines the core principle of monetary singleness, the report claimed.

Stablecoins continue to grow, but volatility remains. Source: BIS

Stablecoins fail elasticity and integrity tests

Elasticity, the second test, is crucial for absorbing shocks and meeting large-value payment demands, BIS said in its report.

It pointed out that “any additional supply of stablecoins thus requires full upfront payment by its holders,” likening it to a “strict cash-in-advance setup” that contrasts with the flexibility of modern banking systems, where central banks provide liquidity as needed.

The third and perhaps most damning failure lies in the area of integrity. The report claimed that stablecoins’ design, especially those transacted via unhosted wallets on public blockchains, makes them prone to financial crime.

“Stablecoins have significant shortcomings when it comes to promoting the integrity of the monetary system,” the BIS noted, emphasizing their vulnerability to money laundering, sanctions evasion and terrorist financing.

Cross-border use of stablecoins has been rising. Source: BIS

Stablecoins should have a limited role

While acknowledging the continued demand for stablecoins due to features like cross-border accessibility and lower transaction costs, the BIS argued that they should only play a limited, well-regulated role.

“Society can re-learn the historical lessons about the limitations of unsound money,” the report cautioned. “Bold action by central banks and other public authorities can push the financial system along the right path, in partnership with the financial sector.”

Circle, the company behind USDC, saw its stock drop more than 15% on Tuesday after the BIS report, hitting $222. CRCL shares had reached an all-time high of $299 on Monday.

Despite its hard take on stablecoins, the BIS report praised tokenization as a “transformative innovation” for the next-generation monetary and financial system. It said tokenization builds on the current financial system rather than replacing it.

Some in the crypto community said it is “no surprise” that the BIS paper was generally negative on stablecoins, given that it is a “regulatory body owned by global central banks.”

“The BIS is hysterical in its opposition to crypto,” Jim Walker, chief economist at Aletheia Capital, wrote. “The first criterion, backed by a central bank, should make it a laughing stock given the historical failures of those institutions around the world.”

Source: Zero Hedge

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Blue River

Forex

Technical Analysis

USDJPY technicals

The USDJPY has dipped back below both the 100-hour moving average (145.76) and the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up, tilting the short-term bias to the downside and disappointing the buyers on the break above those levels earlier in the US session. After the break higher, the rally today stalled near the low of the swing area between 145.92 and 146.288, where sellers once again leaned.

The buyers had their shot. They missed.

With the move back below the 100-hour MA confirmed, traders will now focus on the 200-hour moving average at 145.217 and the 50% midpoint at 145.06 as the next key downside targets. Staying below the 100-hour MA keeps sellers in control. Overall, the technical bias is more neutral with the price between the 100/200 hour MAs.

Support targets:

● 145.217 – 200-hour moving average

● 145.06 – 50% retracement

Resistance:

● 145.76 – 100-hour MA (broken)

● 145.92–146.288 – overhead swing zone

A hold below 145.76 would keep the pressure on the downside in the near term.

Source: ForexLive

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Adam

Forex

The British pound is hovering at its highest level in more than three years — and analysts are divided on the potential for further upside.

Britain’s currency was last seen trading around the $1.36 mark on Wednesday morning in London.

It marked a slight drop from Tuesday, when sterling hit its highest level since January 2022.

So far this year, the pound has surged 8.7% against the greenback.

Against the euro , however, sterling is down 2.9% year-to-date. It was last seen trading marginally higher against the euro zone currency, with one pound buying around 1.173 euros.

Dollar weakness

According to Janet Mui, head of market analysis at RBC Brewin Dolphin, much of the pound’s upward trajectory is actually more to do with underlying dollar weakness than faith in sterling itself.

“The relative strength of the pound has been more of a weak U.S. dollar story this year,” she told CNBC by email on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies shook confidence in American assets earlier this year, which in turn has sparked concerns in markets about de-dollarization.

Paul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, said sterling was on a recovery journey from the “extreme low” seen in the aftermath of former British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s so-called mini budget, which sparked a severe sell off of the pound and U.K. government bonds in 2022.

He agreed, however, that much of the movement this year was attributable to dollar weakness, pointing out sterling’s simultaneous depreciation against the euro.

Will sterling go higher?

“I would expect that pattern to continue in the future, with the dollar weakening along with the US economy (and investor doubts about US fiscal and tariff policies), while the euro could strengthen on optimism about the implications of the coming fiscal boost (especially in Germany),” Invesco’s Jackson said.

He argued that the ECB had likely completed most of its monetary easing for the current cycle, whereas the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve “have a lot of catching up to do.”

“In 12 months, I would expect GBPUSD to be around 1.40 and GBPEUR to be around 1.15 (currently 1.17),” Jackson added.

Jackson’s forecast represents a roughly 2.9% premium from current exchange rates against the dollar.

RBC Brewin Dolphin’s Mui suggested that in the coming months, the outlook for the British pound is not overly compelling — but noted that geopolitical developments could catalyze further upward movements in the longer term.

“In the near-term, further upside for the pound may be limited due to softer UK economic momentum and more scope for the Bank of England to cut rates,” she said.

“Looking ahead, one potential catalyst for the pound could be improved relations with the EU, particularly if it translates into more concrete action over time.”

Brian Mangwiro, an investment manager with the multi asset group at Barings, took a more pessimistic view.

“We are bearish GBP in the medium term. We would forecast EURGBP at 0.875 and GBPUSD at 1.30 in [six months],” he told CNBC by email on Wednesday.

He argued that the macroeconomic backdrop does not justify sterling’s performance against the greenback this year, attributing it instead to a reflection of a post-liberation day sell-off of the U.S. dollar.

“Markets had been overly bearish on the UK following Chancellor Reeves’ Budget,” he added. “Consequently, positive data surprises became supportive to GBP. However, we continue to expect UK economic growth and inflation to slow; signs are already showing, which the Bank of England is also acknowledging. This supports further BoE rate cuts, and ultimately weighs on the pound.”

Mangwiro also noted that in his view, de-dollarization risks seemed “over-blown.”

“Sentiment will likely reverse as US growth outlook rebounds and corporate earnings remain resilient,” he said. “Along with current extreme short USD positioning, this should support a USD rebound, dragging Cable lower.”

Source: cnbc

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Damon

Economic

Brandon Bell | Getty Images

Sales of new single-family homes dropped 13.7% in May compared with April to 623,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, according to the U.S. Census.

That sales total was 6.3% lower than May 2024 and well below both the 6-month average of 671,000 and the one-year average of 676,000. It also lags the pre-pandemic average in 2019 of 685,000 units sold.

Wall Street analysts were expecting May new home sales of 695,000, according to estimates from Dow Jones.

This count is based on signed contracts, so people out shopping in May, when mortgage rates remained stubbornly high.

The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage started May at 6.83%, rose steadily to just over 7% and then settled back at 6.95% by the end of the month, according to Mortgage News Daily.

"The large fall in new home sales in May cancels out all of the positivity of the past couple of months and serves as a valuable reminder that buyer activity can only rise so far with mortgage rates hugging 7%," wrote Bradley Saunders, an economist with Capital Economics.

Home builders who reported quarterly earnings recently noted high rates cutting into affordability.

"The macro economy remains challenging, as mortgage interest rates have remained higher while consumer confidence has been challenged by a wide range of uncertainties, both domestic and global," said Stuart Miller, co-CEO of Lennar, on a call with analysts following the company's second-quarter earnings release. "Across the housing landscape, actionable demand has been diminished by both affordability and consumer confidence, and therefore has continued to soften."

Lennar reported lowering prices, but KB Home, which reported its quarterly earnings this week, raised prices.

Nationally, the median price of a new home sold in May was $426,600, according to the Census report, 3% above the year-earlier price.

Slower sales resulted in a significant bump higher in supply. There were 507,000 new homes for sales at the end of May. This represents a 9.8-month supply at the current sales rate, which is 15% higher than May 2024.

The last time supply was that high was briefly in the summer of 2022, after the Federal Reserve first started raising interest rates post-pandemic. Before that, supply hadn't been this high since 2009, amid the subprime mortgage crisis and the great recession.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

President Trump told reporters that he is actively considering replacements for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and that he is down to three or four candidates.

"I know within 3 or 4 people who I’m going to pick," he told reporters adding of Powell "he goes up pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible." Powell’s term as chair expires in May 2026.

The comments from the president during a press conference in the Netherlands came at the same time as Powell sat before Senate lawmakers about 3,800 miles away in Washington for his second day of regularly scheduled testimony before Congress.

The consideration of Powell replacements comes after a period of intensifying pressure from Trump to consider rate cuts as the chairman’s guarded wait-and-see monetary policy stance continues to inflame tensions with the White House.

The president's attacks intensified at the end of last week as Trump called for rates to drop from 4.25% to 4.5% to between 1% and 2% and said of Powell and the Fed's board of governors: "I don't know why the Board doesn’t override this Total and Complete Moron!"

Trump repeated some of those points in a Tuesday social media post, calling for rates "at least two to three points lower" and saying that Powell "will be in Congress today in order to explain, among other things, why he is refusing to lower the Rate."

"I hope Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person, over. We will be paying for his incompetence for many years to come."

On Wednesday Trump reiterated his oft-stated case of why Powell should lower rates by at least one percentage point immediately, citing "no inflation."

He also recounted an earlier face-to-face meeting with Powell, offering a mocking voice for Powell, and repeated his personal attacks by saying "I think he's a very stupid person actually."

Powell told Senate lawmakers today that the central bank is "well-positioned to wait" on any interest rate adjustments until it has more clarity on how Trump's tariffs will affect inflation and the direction of the US economy. He delivered the same message to House lawmakers Tuesday.

Trump is not the only one calling for lower rates. Even some of Powell's fellow policymakers — Fed governors Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller — have said in recent days that they now see cutting rates as soon as the Fed's next policy meeting in July due to recent mild inflation readings.

But other officials have pushed back on that urgency and warned that it is too soon to know the true effects of tariffs on inflation.

Some names have already circulated in Washington as possible replacement for Powell. One is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, considered by many to be a frontrunner for the job. Waller is another current Fed official considered by some central bank watchers as a possible pick.

Bloomberg has reported that the name of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also now being circulated as a possible replacement for Powell.

Bessent told lawmakers earlier this month he would like to remain in his seat until 2029, but he did not dismiss the possibility of becoming the next chair of the Fed.

Bessent said he has "the best job" in Washington and is "happy to do what President Trump wants me to do," while noting that "I would like to stay in my seat through 2029" to help carry out the administration’s agenda.

Source: Yahoofinance

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Adam

Commodity

Gold and silver prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading Wednesday. While the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has significantly de-escalated at mid-week, there are still elevated worries and uncertainties regarding an uneasy Israel-Iran ceasefire. August gold was last up $7.00 at $3,340.90. July silver prices were last up $0.058 at $35.79.

Risk appetite is not robust at mid-week, but neither is risk aversion as a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire appears to be holding. There are also now reports that the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities only set back Iran’s nuclear weapons program three to six months. The Trump administration denied those reports.

This week’s fluid geopolitical developments overshadowed a downbeat Conference Board U.S. consumer confidence reading for June—dropping to 93.0 from 98.4 in May. A Wall Street Journal survey expected the June reading to come in a 99.5. The forward-looking expectations index fell to 69.0 in June versus 73.6 in May. The Conference Board says a reading below 80 signals a U.S. recession. The June report suggests U.S. consumers remain very concerned about trade tariffs and their impacts on jobs, prices and inflation.

Said David Morrison of Trade Nation in a morning email dispatch: “It’s worth remembering that China-U.S. trade issues remain unresolved. Chinese Premier Li Qiang struck a cautionary tone overnight, urging global leaders not to let trade disputes become overly politicized. The remark underlined the fact that while the Israel-Iran hostilities and subsequent ceasefire have pulled the focus somewhat, other sources of tension continue to tick along under the surface, for now.”

Asian and European stocks were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to narrowly mixed openings today in New York.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $65.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.293%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Fed Chair Powell today speaks to a Senate banking committee.