Trump Says Israel And Iran Have Agreed To A Ceasefire

Daniel Carter

Political

Middle East Situation

Summary:

US President Donald Trump has just announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran to be phased in over 24 hours.

Donald Trump claimed that Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire at a time when tensions remain high in the region.

Donald Trump announces 'complete and total ceasefire' between Israel and Iran, with both countries yet to confirm the news.

The announcement comes after Trump thanked Tehran for giving it advanced notice of its limited attack on a US airbase in Qatar.

Trump claims 'complete and total ceasefire' between Israel and Iran in coming hours.

US President Donald Trump has announced a "complete and total CEASEFIRE" in approximately six hours, saying both Israel and Iran have agreed to it.

"CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!" Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform, saying the ceasefire will come after the two countries "have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!"

It would last for 12 hours "at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!"

"Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World," Trump said.

Both Israel and Iran are yet to confirm the ceasefire agreement.

"On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, 'THE 12 DAY WAR,'" he wrote.

Source: DW

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Middle East Situation

Commodity

President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a tentative ceasefire in their conflict that would begin about midnight Washington time on Monday.

Trump, who made the surprise announcement on his Truth Social platform days after ordering airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, said the accord is aimed at a lasting end to the fighting.

“On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called “THE 12 DAY WAR.”

There was no immediate comment from Iran or Israel on Trump’s post. Vice President JD Vance said the president had been “working the phones constantly” Monday with a goal of getting an agreement.

Details of the timing of exactly when each side would stop fighting weren’t immediately clear from Trump’s post.

As Trump made the announcement, Iranian media reported powerful explosions in Tehran and several other cities. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is not seeking to escalate tensions but is prepared to respond to any further US aggression.

His announcement came just hours after Iran fired missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, where US Central Command has its regional headquarters, after promising it would respond “proportionately and decisively” to the weekend bombing by US forces of three nuclear facilities. Qatar said the Iranian missile barrage was intercepted and the base had been evacuated in advance. Trump thanked Iran for the advance warning and the limited strike.

Oil plunged on relief that Tehran’s measured response offered the prospect of easing tensions in the conflict, which began 10 days ago when Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear and missile installations and military leaders. Iran has responded with several days of missile strikes on Israel. Trump Announces Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire to End Fighting_1

Trump Announces Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire to End Fighting_1

After the attack on Qatar, Trump posted, he added: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!”

Speaking to Fox News after Trump announced the ceasefire, Vance said that the US bombing over the weekend had met its objectives.

“We know that they cannot build a nuclear weapon,” Vance said, adding that Iran’s existing stock of highly enriched uranium was “buried” by the attack.

“if Iran is desperate to build a nuclear weapon in the future, then they’re going to have to deal with a very, very powerful American military,” he said.

Iran’s move on Monday appeared to be “a largely symbolic retaliation,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ chief emerging-market economist. “Plenty of warning was given — Qatar shut its airspace and the US issued warnings to citizens.”

Some of Qatar’s Gulf Arab neighbors including Bahrain, which hosts a US naval base, and the United Arab Emirates also closed their airspace late Monday as a precaution. All those countries announced within hours that their airspace had been reopened to traffic. Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia issued statements condemning the Iranian attack.

The US and its allies were expecting the strike, according to a person familiar with Western intelligence assessments. US diplomatic missions advised Doha-based residents earlier in the day to shelter in place. Trump Announces Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire to End Fighting_2

Trump Announces Tentative Israel-Iran Ceasefire to End Fighting_2

Iranian officials also suggested the move had a symbolic element. The number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs deployed by the US against the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, and the Qatar strike “poses no danger” to a “friendly and brotherly country,” the state-run IRNA news agency said.

Israel says its war against Iran aims to prevent the country from acquiring atomic weapons, a risk also cited by Trump to justify US involvement. Iran denies ever having sought a nuclear bomb.

In the past few months, American and Iranian negotiators had held several rounds of talks aimed at a new agreement on curtailing Iran’s program — to replace the 2015 nuclear deal which Trump abandoned during his first term. A key sticking point in those discussions was the question of limited uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, which Tehran insists it’s entitled to do under international law, and Trump appeared to rule out.

Since Israel’s attack on June 13, Trump has alternated between military threats and hints of renewed diplomacy. His envoy in the earlier negotiations, Steve Witkoff, has been in contact with Iran since the US strikes. Tehran has said it won’t rejoin talks while under attack.

Source: Bloomberg

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Forex

Economic

Developing-nation currencies were split, with Latin America leading a rebound in US hours as investors wagered that a conflict in the Middle East would remain limited in scope and parsed through signals on the direction of US monetary policy. Latin America Leads EM Currency Bounce Amid Easing Mideast Worry_1

Latin America Leads EM Currency Bounce Amid Easing Mideast Worry_1

The MSCI index for EM currencies came close to erasing losses after Iran’s retaliatory strikes at a US air base in Qatar were seen as symbolic, leading President Donald Trump to raise hopes of de-escalating the conflict. The South African rand, seen as a bellwether for risk appetite, led gains with a 0.7% advance.

End-of-day adjustments still left the index 0.3% lower, with Asian currencies leading the decline. The dollar, meanwhile fell after some Federal Reserve officials signaled support for lowering borrowing costs as soon as July.

Iran fired a barrage of missiles at a US air base in Qatar, which were intercepted with no casualties. Investors read the developments as signals that tensions have reached their peak, fueling optimism for a diplomatic resolution. Oil was down more than 9%. Latin America Leads EM Currency Bounce Amid Easing Mideast Worry_2

Latin America Leads EM Currency Bounce Amid Easing Mideast Worry_2

“Financial markets are experiencing a relief rally and oil prices are falling sharply,” said Brendan McKenna, emerging market strategist at Wells Fargo. “The developments today seem more directed toward de-escalation rather than escalation.”

Israel’s shekel and sovereign dollar bonds posted some of the best performances among emerging peers.

Debt rush

A lack of clarity about the next chapters of the conflict helped fuel a rush in debt sales. Sovereign and corporate borrowers tapped global markets on Monday, locking in financing ahead of any potential escalations in the Middle East.

Mexico launched a sale of global notes, Kuwait is mobilizing banks for a possible bond sale and Kazakhstan is planning to offer dollar bonds maturing in seven and 12 years. Argentina’s Córdoba province also announced a new sale and a buyback offer. On the corporate front, Brazilian meatpacker JBS SA came out with a record sale. Latin America Leads EM Currency Bounce Amid Easing Mideast Worry_3

Latin America Leads EM Currency Bounce Amid Easing Mideast Worry_3

In equity markets, a gauge for EM stocks dropped 0.6%, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co. accounting for two-thirds of its losses. Shares of chipmakers fell following a report that the US Commerce Department wants to end waivers used by chip firms to access American technology in China.

Source: Bloomberg

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Central Bank

Cryptocurrency

The Federal Reserve Board on June 23 removed reputational risk from its bank supervision program, ordering staff to strike the term from examination manuals and to concentrate on measurable financial exposures.

The Fed move positions the central bank alongside the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which made similar changes this year.

Together, the three regulators oversee every federally insured depository institution. Their coordinated revisions eliminate a subjective standard that experts said allowed examiners to block banking services to crypto firms.

Additionally, it prevented banks from offering crypto-related services as simple as buying and selling Bitcoin (BTC).

Under the new guidance, Fed examiners will receive training to implement the change uniformly across all Board-supervised banks and will work with peer agencies “to promote consistent practices.”

The memo emphasizes that banks must continue to maintain robust risk management frameworks to safeguard their safety and soundness. Still, it clarifies that exam teams should address reputational effects only through specific legal, liquidity, or credit channels.

Fed signals openness to regulated crypto activity

Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork for the shift in an April 16 speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, where he urged Congress to establish a stablecoin framework and stated that the Fed does not intend to limit lawful relationships between banks and crypto firms.

Back then, the GENIUS Act was stuck in Congress. Yet, this scenario changed after the Senate sent the measure to the House for consideration following a 51-23 vote on June 17.

Furthermore, Powell acknowledged that regulators adopted a conservative stance after the 2022 market failures but said some guidance “may be relaxed to accommodate responsible innovation.”

He pointed to crypto custody services already operating inside Fed-supervised banks and pledged to preserve safety while allowing institutions to “engage with digital assets in a way we understand.”

Powell’s remarks echo testimony he gave to Congress in February, where he confirmed that existing supervisory frameworks permit banks to handle crypto so long as they manage capital, liquidity, and operational risks.

The Federal Reserve’s directive completes a three-month effort by federal regulators to remove reputational risk from bank supervision policy, leaving operational, legal, and financial criteria as the sole grounds for examiner action.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Central Bank

Forex

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will have two chances this week to explain to lawmakers why he and most of his fellow policymakers seem resolved to continue holding interest rates steady at least until September, ignoring President Donald Trump’s persistent calls to lower borrowing costs.

The Fed chair will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. Tuesday, and at the same time on Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee. The appearances come less than a week after officials agreed to keep rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting. They also follow the recent US attack on Iran, which escalated fears of surging oil prices and risks to the global economy.

Here’s what to listen for in his prepared remarks and in the question-and-answer sessions with lawmakers:

Rates, Economy

Look for Powell to carefully follow his message from last week, when he said the central bank was “well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy” before considering any move in interest rates.

“We’d like to get some more data, and again, in the meantime we can do that because the economy remains in solid condition,” Powell told reporters last week. “Ultimately the cost of the tariff has to be paid, and some of it will fall on the end consumer.”

So far, tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have not yet delivered the higher prices and higher unemployment that policymakers have warned about. Indeed, economists expect data this week will show the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation rose just 0.1% in May for a third month. That would mark the tamest three-month stretch since 2020.

Two Fed governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have each said the impact from tariffs on prices is likely to be short-lived and they might support a rate cut in July.

“Powell seems to see little urgency to adopt a strong view on the likely course of inflation, and he seems to see a lot of risk to making the wrong assessment,” said James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas.

Iran Conflict

Powell will almost certainly be queried about the potential economic impact of ongoing warfare between Israel and Iran. Over the weekend, the US joined the conflict directly, bombing Iranian nuclear facilities. So far, oil prices have not jumped dramatically on the news.

During his press conference last week, Powell was guarded in his comments on the conflict and the potential fallout.

“Of course we’re watching, like everybody else is, what’s going on,” he said. “It’s possible that we’ll see higher energy prices. What’s tended to happen is when there’s turmoil in the Middle East, you may see a spike in energy prices, but tends to come down. Those things don’t generally tend to have lasting effects on inflation.”

Political Pressure

Republican lawmakers are expected to press Powell for a clear justification for his wait-and-see posture. Some will almost surely take a less combative approach than Trump.

“Chairman Powell deserves credit for navigating some of the toughest terrain in modern history,” Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, a House Financial Services member, posted on social media over the weekend. “But with inflation cooling and a strong labor market, the upside of lower rates is becoming hard to miss.”

But if other lawmakers take their cue from the president, Powell could face more serious fire. Trump’s most recent attacks have focused on the cost that interest rates impose on the federal government. He has also become increasingly personal, calling the Fed chair “truly one of the dumbest, and most destructive, people in Government.”

When he met with the president in May, Powell told Trump the Federal Open Market Committee’s decisions were based on “careful, objective, and non-political analysis,” according to the central bank. Expect more of that stoicism.

“He’s going to be totally unflappable,” Mark Gertler, an economics professor at New York University, predicted.

Powell might also hear words of encouragement from Democrats, who are likely to warn the central bank’s independence is being threatened by Republicans.

Banking regulation

Fed watchers will also have a chance to gauge Powell’s views on key regulatory changes currently in the works. The White House is pushing a deregulatory agenda — with several federal agencies working to ease rules. As part of that, Trump elevated Bowman — who has signaled her support for that effort — to the central bank’s top regulatory post.

On Monday, Bowman said it’s time to revisit a key capital buffer that some regulators and bankers believe has constrained lenders’ trading in the $29 trillion Treasuries market. Bloomberg has reported that the Fed, along with other regulators, will propose lowering the so-called enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 forcing banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets.

Bank Reserves

Powell is also likely to field questions on a proposal floated recently by Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas to prohibit the Fed from paying interest on bank reserves. Cruz claimed the move would save $1.1 trillion over a decade, but several analysts argued it would imperil the Fed’s ability to control short-term interest rates.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott blocked the proposal from being attached to Trump’s tax and spending package still working its way through Congress, but didn’t reject the idea outright.

Paying interest on reserves effectively prevents banks from lending at lower rates than the Fed wants, holding a floor under the overnight market.

Soure: Bloomberg

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Commodity

Middle East Situation

Oil futures slid 6% on Monday as Iran appeared to spare the energy market while the country launched missiles targeted at a US air base in Qatar in retaliation for US bombings on Iranian nuclear sites.

Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, dropped to $72 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) also fell roughly 6% to trade below $70 per barrel.

The declines came after Iranian state media said it launched missile attacks against a US air base in Qatar, matching the number of bombs dropped by the US over the weekend, in a move the Associated Press said signaled "a likely desire to deescalate."

Prior to the retaliatory move, Wall Street weighed various scenarios after President Trump announced on Saturday that the US struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, including the threat of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil flows.

On Monday morning, President Trump posted on social media: "To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!"

"The main reason for this stability is that energy infrastructure has largely been spared from direct attacks, with number of oil tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz remaining steady," JPMorgan's Natasha Kaneva and her team wrote on Monday morning.

On Sunday, futures spiked after Iran's parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, but the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The oil market is now factoring in "a one-in-five chance of a material disruption in Gulf energy production flows, with potential for crude prices to reach the $120-130 range," Kaneva wrote.

"Yet, beyond the short-term spike induced by geopolitics, our base case for oil remains anchored by our supply-demand balance, which shows that the world has enough oil," she added. She also noted that "with fewer reliable partners in the Middle East and limited regional appetite for a broader conflict, Iran faces a constrained set of options and a heightened set of risks as it deliberates its course of action."

Other possible retaliatory moves from Iran could include supporting Yemen's Houthi rebels in renewed attacks on commercial shipping, or going after energy infrastructure in neighboring countries. Oil Tanks 6% as Iranian Retaliation Against US Spares Energy Supply_1

Oil Tanks 6% as Iranian Retaliation Against US Spares Energy Supply_1

If crude climbs into the $120 to $130 range, analysts predict gasoline and diesel prices could rise by as much as $1.25 per gallon.

"Consumers would be looking at a national average gasoline price of around $4.50 per gallon — closer to $6.00 if you're in California," Lipow Oil Associates president Andy Lipow said in a Sunday note.

The key issue isn't just the potential for supply disruption, but how long it lasts, Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth, told Yahoo Finance on Sunday.

"If infrastructure is hit but can be quickly restored, crude may struggle to hold gains," she said. "But if Iran's response causes lasting damage or introduces long-term supply risk, we're likely to see a stronger and more sustained move higher."

Last week, JPMorgan analysts noted that since 1967 — aside from the Yom Kippur War in 1973 — none of the 11 major military conflicts involving Israel have had a lasting impact on oil prices.

In contrast, events directly involving major regional oil producers, such as the first Gulf War in 1990, the Iraq War in 2003 and the imposition of sanctions on Iran in 2018, have all led to meaningful and sustained moves in oil markets.

"During these episodes, we estimate that oil traded at a $7–$14 per barrel premium to its fair value for an extended period," JPMorgan's Kaneva wrote. Oil Tanks 6% as Iranian Retaliation Against US Spares Energy Supply_2

Oil Tanks 6% as Iranian Retaliation Against US Spares Energy Supply_2

They added that the most significant and lasting price impacts historically come from "regime changes" in oil-producing countries, whether that be through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts.

"While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity shape the broader market response, these events typically drive substantial oil price spikes, averaging a 76% increase from onset to peak," Kaneva wrote.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) had raised output in the months leading up to Israel's strike on Iran on June 13.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Cryptocurrency

Political

Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed the “Bitcoin Reserve Bill” SB 21 into law on June 21, allowing the state to invest an unlimited amount of money from the state’s fund into Bitcoin (BTC).

SB 21 creates the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and lets the Comptroller buy BTC so long as the asset’s market cap exceeds $500 billion, a threshold that only Bitcoin currently meets.

$2.2B allocation

With the proposal signed into law, Texas became the third state in the US with an official Bitcoin reserve, joining New Hampshire and Arizona.

Nothing in the statute caps allocations, meaning lawmakers could appropriate the full balance of the Economic Stabilization Fund. The ESF closed fiscal 2024 with $21 billion in cash and investments, according to the Comptroller’s annual cash report and supplemental ESF fact sheet.

If legislators route the maximum, Texas alone could become the largest public-sector Bitcoin holder in the US. The state could funnel up to $2.1 billion in Bitcoin if it decides to allocate up to 10% of its budget in BTC, as Arizona had intended to with its failed bill.

Together with New Hampshire, the total state allocations could reach nearly $2.2 billion.

Governor Kelly Ayotte signed House Bill 302 on May 6, authorizing the treasurer to place any digital asset that has a market capitalization above $500 billion into a strategic reserve.

The statute caps holdings at 5% of the state’s Revenue Stabilization Reserve Account. New Hampshire’s latest bond-offering documents list an account of $292.5 million for fiscal 2023, with the BTC investment ceiling representing about $14.6 million.

Arizona bill fails

Arizona’s Bitcoin and Digital Asset Reserve Fund became law on May 7 via House Bill 2749. The measure directs unclaimed or seized digital assets to a state-run wallet, which can be staked or utilized in airdrops, with the proceeds returning to the fund.

However, there is no report to date on the amount of crypto seized by Arizona.

The SB 1373 failed on May 12 after Hobbs’ veto. The proposal would permit the treasurer to deploy up to 10% of the Budget Stabilization Fund (BSF) into BTC once enacted.

Legislative budget writers project the BSF at roughly $1.5 billion for fiscal 2025, implying a prospective Bitcoin allocation near $150 million.

As a result, if a similar bill is approved in Arizona, the investment amount in Bitcoin would be boosted to over $2.3 billion.