Trump Orders Blockade Of Sanctioned Oil Tankers In Venezuela, Designates Government As 'terrorist Organization'

Summary:

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America."

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday stateside ordered a "complete and total" blockade of sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela as tensions ramp up between the Washington and the South American country.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said "Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America."He added, "It will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before — Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us."

"For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela," Trump said.

Source: CNBC

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Olivia Brooks

Political

The Trump administration is weighing an executive order that would pressure defense contractors to spend less on stock buybacks and dividends while boosting investment in infrastructure and weapons production, a person familiar with the matter said.

The executive order, which President Donald Trump could sign as early as this week, would mark the latest effort by the White House to bring the defense contractors to heel. In a speech last month, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth demanded the companies speed weapons development or "fade away."

The proposed order would mandate that the companies tie executive compensation more closely to overall performance levels in delivering specific systems, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing a plan that hasn't been released.

Even so, it appears to be a White House effort. Pentagon officials only saw the draft order in the last two weeks, the person said. Depending on how it's worded, the order could trigger a Pentagon review on how best to extract those demands from industry.

The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Punchbowl first reported the order plans.

Trump's ability to enforce such an order is unclear, and it would represent an extraordinary intrusion by the US government into corporate affairs. But the administration hasn't been shy about making similar demands in recent months, telling contractors to get in line with its priorities and even buying stakes in some companies.

Backed by Trump, Hegseth has said he intends to fix the painfully slow procurement process in which weapons are often over-budget, years late and sometimes obsolete by the time they debut. That challenge drew the ire of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, who told Vanity Fair in an interview published Tuesday that Hegseth was the right person to take on the job.

"People talk about the deep state being at the State Department," Wiles said. "It's not. It's the military-industrial complex."

In his November speech, Hegseth demanded the biggest US defense companies invest their own capital in speed and volume of delivery. Officials from defense companies such as Lockheed Martin Corp. and Northrop Grumman Corp., were in the audience when Hegseth delivered the remarks.

In October, Lockheed raised its quarterly dividend 15% and approved buying back up to an additional $2 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported at the time. Northrop pays a dividend of $2.31 per share.

But the companies have also made major investments. Earlier this month, Lockheed opened a new lab focused on hypersonic weapons in Alabama as part of a $700 million planned investment from the strategic and missile defense unit in recent years to expand and upgrade facilities. Northrop has invested more than $1 billion in advanced manufacturing facilities since 2018.

Undersecretary Michael Duffey, in a separate memo to the Pentagon senior leadership earlier this month, directed each military service to publish new contracting guidelines in the next 180 days that would ensure "clear incentives for timely delivery" and "increased production capacity".

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Olivia Brooks

Political

Trump Further Restricts Foreign Nationals Entry To US, White House Says_1

President Donald Trump has signed a proclamation further restricting and limiting the entry of foreign nationals to the United States, the White House said on Tuesday.

The U.S. has imposed full restrictions and entry limitations on nationals from five countries - Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, and Syria - in addition to the initial list of 12 countries, the White House said.

Full restrictions have also been imposed on individuals holding Palestinian Authority-issued travel documents, it said.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

The nation's busiest seaport handled 11.5% less import volume in November than in the year-ago month after shippers built early inventories to avoid President Donald Trump's tariffs on goods such as toys, auto parts and metal furniture, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said on Tuesday.

The Port of Los Angeles handled 406,421 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of imports in November.

Exports dropped 8.4% to 113,706 TEUs, meanwhile, as retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products and manufactured goods as well as trade deals excluding the United States began taking hold, he said. Export volume from the port has dropped for the 11th straight month, he said.

Seroka said he expects total volume at the port to top 10 million TEUs for 2025 - roughly in line with 2024 and its third-highest on record, despite the volume rollercoaster from U.S. tariff policy.

"I think the uncertainty is here to stay, at least for the next year," Seroka said. "This is a headwind we may face for some time to come."

Imports to all U.S. ports fell 7.8% in November from the year earlier, due to soft demand for goods from China and one fewer day in the Thanksgiving holiday month, supply-chain technology provider Descartes Systems Group (DSG.TO), said earlier this month.

The U.S. Supreme Court in the coming months is expected to rule on the legality of tariffs the Trump administration imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. If the justices rule against the administration, Washington would turn to other laws to justify new tariffs, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said earlier this month.

In 2026, global trade faces ongoing risk from tariff pressures, Russia's war in Ukraine and the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Additionally, large fiscal deficits in major countries around the world could usher in austerity measures that cool consumption, said Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Closer to home, U.S. companies may also begin passing through more tariff costs after absorbing them this year, she said. "That will certainly take a pinch out of consumption."

On the other hand, tax refunds from Trump's tax and spending bill in the first quarter of 2026 could boost U.S. spending and inflation, Hunter said.

"That's when we expect the majority of those tax refunds to hit pocketbooks and to feed out into consumer spending - that is going to be close to 3% of GDP."

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Commodity

Energy

Crude oil prices fell to levels not seen since the start of 2021 as a widely expected supply glut picked up momentum and peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict took steps forward.

Futures on international pricing benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) fell by more than 2% to trade below $59 on Tuesday, while futures on US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude (CL=F) fell over 3% to at one point trade below $55. Oil Rises as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Tensions, Oversupply_1

Oil Rises as Traders Weigh Geopolitical Tensions, Oversupply_1

Both energy products reached levels Tuesday that had not been seen since February 2021 as analysts pointed to an outlook marked by "extraordinary oversupply."

'Cartoonishly oversupplied'

Both Brent and WTI crude are headed for yearly losses of more than 20% as the market has been flooded with supply.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) have been unwinding cuts at a significant rate, increasing the amount of barrels added to the market each month, while other supplier countries outside of the Americas have been raising their levels.

Between April and December, OPEC+ member countries increased production by 2.9 million barrels per day as Saudi Arabia sought to retake market share and price control from the West. In the US, the federal Energy Information Administration expects domestic oil inventories to continue building through 2026 as well.

Even with a recent decision by OPEC to hold production rates steady through the first quarter, the International Energy Agency said last week that it now expects 2026's oil glut to reach 3.8 million barrels per day.

On the water, crude tankers at sea are now holding more than 1 billion barrels — a figure that has steadily risen over the past few months as sellers have had a harder time finding buyers willing to take the oil.

Prices for Dubai crude oil, a key pricing benchmark in the Asian market, and barrels on the US Gulf Coast both slipped into contango on Tuesday morning, according to Bloomberg data.

Contango is a market pattern where futures prices further out on the curve are higher than near-dated futures or spot prices as costs for storage, financing, and carry become steeper and traders look for a looser market to come.

The price action pressure is also showing up in refined products. Crack spreads, or the difference between oil and its derived products, like jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel, have tightened over the past month while prices on the crude derivatives, which had been supporting overall pricing strength in the oil market, have fallen.

The Street is bearish on the market. Commodities strategists at JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs expect Brent prices to slip into the $50s per barrel in 2026, reaching levels not seen since the start of the pandemic, when an overnight halt in cars on the road briefly pushed prices negative.

"At the risk of flogging a very dead horse, our message to the market has remained consistent since June 2023," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note to clients. "While demand is robust, supply is simply too abundant."

If the OPEC+ cartel, which has agreed to pause unwinding through the first quarter, doesn't shift to cutting barrels and other producers don't slow down as well, the strategists see oil possibly dropping into the $40s or even $30s per barrel — levels that would be catastrophic for the industry.

Given all of this, Macquarie oil analysts wrote in a recent note to clients that the market's downward momentum is outstripping even their bearish outlooks.

"Our near-term balances now appear even more bearish than what we had previously characterized as 'cartoonishly' oversupplied," the analysts wrote.

'Fundamentals remain the anchor'

However, there are a few bullish signs in the oil market that could help maintain price support.

Recent sanctions by the US Treasury Department against Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia's largest oil producers, could theoretically provide pricing support by taking barrels out of the market. But it is unclear how much Russian oil will find evasive routes to refiners in countries such as China and India, which see an opportunity to buy at the low prices offered for sanctioned oil.

If a peace agreement were to be reached between Ukraine and Russia and the Treasury Department's sanctions were to be lifted, Russian energy exports would likely jump and add to the already overflowing market. In recent days, talks between Kyiv and Washington appeared to have moved forward as Ukraine and its allies struck an agreement over security guarantees.

In Central America, if tensions between Washington and Caracas remain high, flows from Venezuela would likely drop off as buyers shy away from the scrutiny that comes with Venezuelan oil. The US's seizure of a crude tanker off the Venezuelan coast last week marked the most significant escalation yet.

And in the US, Federal Reserve rate cuts, such as the quarter-point cut announced last week, are typically bullish for oil markets, as they weaken the dollar and signal stronger growth expectations.

Yet it's not likely to be enough, said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist and global director of market analysis at Rystad Energy.

"For energy commodities specifically, fundamentals remain the anchor," Galimberti said.

In the latest Dallas Fed quarterly survey, interviewees at exploration and production firms pointed to significant financial risks to come if prices keep dropping.

"The administration is pushing for $40 per barrel crude oil, and with tariffs on foreign tubular goods, [input] prices are up, and drilling is going to disappear," one survey respondent said. "The oil industry is once again going to lose valuable employees."

In the oilfield services sector, which comprises companies like Halliburton (HAL) that provide operational support to exploration companies, the messaging was the same.

"A vibrant oilfield services sector is critical if and when the US needs to ramp up production," a respondent said. "Right now we are bleeding."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Manuel

Commodity

Gold eased after a five-day gain as investors digested the latest economic data that showed a continued cooling of the US jobs market. Copper held losses.

US job growth remained sluggish in November and the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday. Still, traders refrained from boosting bets on further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve in the near term. The US central bank is seen as less likely to put much weight on the data due to disruptions caused by the US government shutdown. Traders assigned a 20% chance of a rate reduction in January.

Lower rates are typically a positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.

Investors will now focus on inflation data due Thursday and remarks from several Fed officials who are expected to speak throughout the week. Gold Steadies After Five-Day Rally as Traders Mull US Jobs Data_1

Gold Steadies After Five-Day Rally as Traders Mull US Jobs Data_1

Gold has surged more than 60% this year and silver has more than doubled, with both metals on track for their best annual performances since 1979. The rallies have been underpinned by elevated central-bank buying and inflows into gold-backed exchange traded funds, in which holdings have risen every month this year except May, according to the World Gold Council.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. upgraded its copper-price forecast for next year, saying potential US curbs on imports are seen as less likely in the first half, allowing a window for shipments ahead of any restriction.

“Expectations of a future tariff should keep the US copper price at a premium to the LME and drive US stockpiling,” analysts, including Eoin Dinsmore, wrote in a note, lifting their 2026 outlook to $11,400 a ton from $10,650. “A later tariff implementation should result in a larger-than-expected ex-US market deficit.”

Gold was up 0.1% to $4,309.77 as of 3:34 p.m. in New York. It hit an all-time high of $4,381.52 an ounce in October. Silver declined 0.5%. Platinum and palladium both advanced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%.

Benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange slipped 0.5% to settle at $11,592 a metric ton. Other metals were mixed, with zinc slumping 1.7% and aluminum up 0.4%.

Source: Bloomberg

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Central Bank

Economic

Further interest rate cuts could put U.S. monetary policy on an accommodative footing that stimulates economic growth and puts the country at risk of a new jump in inflation and inflation expectations, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said ‌on Tuesday.

"Moving monetary policy near or into accommodative territory, which further federal funds rate cuts will do, risks exacerbating already ‌elevated inflation and untethering the inflation expectations of businesses and consumers," Bostic wrote in an essay published by the Atlanta Fed. "That is not a risk I would choose to take right now."

Bostic agreed that the U.S. job market is weakening, but said he did not think it was heading towards a pronounced downturn. ⁠Some of what's taking shape, he ‌said, may be the economy responding to structural shifts like the emergence of new technology, changes in immigration, or companies right-sizing payrolls after hoarding labor during ‍the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Careful analysis by economists on our staff suggests that the labor market is likely not at a negative inflection point ... I do not view a severe labor market downturn as the most likely near-term outcome," Bostic said, with labor data "ambiguous" and largely "moving sideways."

Inflation, by contrast, seems stuck for now well above ‌the Fed's 2% target, and unlikely to move down until perhaps late next year.

There is "little to suggest that price pressures will dissipate before mid- to late 2026, at the earliest," he said, with inflation likely to exceed 2.5% at the end of next year.

The situation, Bostic said, could put the Fed's credibility at risk, and make it harder to return inflation to the target.

"Will the public lose ⁠faith after five years of above-target inflation? Six years? Nobody knows," said Bostic, who is retiring at the end of February and is not currently a voting member of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee. "But what we do know is that credibility is a cornerstone of ‍effective monetary policy."

The Fed ⁠cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point last week, but signaled a likely pause before further reductions.

Bostic, in a later conversation with reporters, said he did not think the ⁠rate cut last week was warranted, and had penciled in no further reductions in borrowing costs for 2026, given his ‌outlook that economic growth will rebound to around 2.5% and price pressures will remain ‌elevated.