Trump is hailing the EU’s $600 billion investment pledge — but it might never happen

Economic

Summary:

Trump praised the EU’s $600 billion U.S. investment pledge, but experts doubt its enforcement or timeline. The non-binding commitment gives Trump leverage, yet actual outcomes remain uncertain and politically fragile.

U.S. President Donald Trump is hailing a win after the European Union vowed to invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S. — although it’s unclear if the bloc can materialize its pledge.

Asked in a Tuesday interview with CNBC what could happen if the EU fails to honor its commitment, Trump said, “Then they pay tariffs at 35%. No, no. They brought down their tariffs, so they paid $600 billion and because of that, I reduced their tariffs from 30% down to 15%.”

The investment pledge is part of the July trade deal between the two partners which includes 15% tariffs on EU goods, as well as an agreement for increased investment and the purchase of $750 billion worth of U.S. energy.

Describing the investment as a “gift,” Trump told CNBC on Tuesday that the EU “gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want.”

For its part, the European Commission noted in a breakdown of the partners’ trade agreement that “EU companies have expressed interest in investing at least $600 billion (ca. €550 billion) in various sectors in the US by 2029.”

A spokesperson for the EU told CNBC that the European Commission had reached out to EU industries and sectors to establish their U.S. investment intentions.

“On this basis, the EU Commission was able to present a coherent, non-binding commitment to the US on estimated EU investment in the coming years,” they said.

What could the investment look like?

So far, the only detail that is certain amid the EU’s pledge to invest is that the private sector will be footing the bill.

Alberto Rizzi, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC that the investment could effectively be made in any industry in the U.S.

“But looking at recent trends manufacturing, finance, chemicals and tech are the most likely areas of investment,” he said, noting that the final recipients of the funds will ultimately depend on the decisions of individual companies.

Other potential areas— in which Trump might also like to see increased investment — include autos, pharmaceuticals and aircraft, said William Reinsch, senior adviser and Scholl Chair emeritus with the Economics Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Looking at a potential timeline, Reinsch noted that “these things always move slower than expected.”

“The policy uncertainty Trump’s actions have generated will slow down the decision making process even more. Making a multi-million dollar investment is not a decision made lightly. Companies have to assure themselves that the long term economics are favorable,” he told CNBC by email.

Notably, the 2029 target timeframe flagged by the EU also coincides with the end of Trump’s presidential term, after which the U.S.′ trade and tariffs regime is unknown.

Will it happen?

It remains to be seen whether the investment will be made, especially as the EU does not have the power to force businesses to follow through with their plans.

“The investment pledge of the EU ... is much more smoke and mirrors than a binding commitment,” Rizzi commented. “The EU Commission has no power to bind member states on this, and, with the exception of state-owned firms, capitals cannot coerce their national companies’ choices either.”

Arthur Leichthammer, policy fellow for geo-economics at the Jacques Delors Centre, likewise said that, while the $600 billion “is not wildly unrealistic in economic terms,” the EU’s inability to enforce investment makes it a tricky pledge.

“The number is not incredibly unrealistic but the EU’s ability to credibly commit to it is limited,” he told CNBC.

As for Trump’s suggestion of potentially higher tariffs if the investment does not materialize?

“That’s exactly the risk,” Leichthammer said, suggesting that the EU’s pledges have given Trump leverage to add further pressure or even threaten to call off the trade deal further down the line.

“It shows that this is not a one-off agreement but the beginning of an ongoing, transactional process, which Trump can escalate at any point. The ‘deal’, which is more of a political announcement, bought time, but no lasting stability,” he said.

Source: cnbc

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James Whitman

Economic

Political

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter said she talked about trade relations in her meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as she attempts to avert a 39% levy as of Thursday.

“We discussed bilateral cooperation between Switzerland and the US, the tariff situation, and international issues,” she said on X after the meeting in Washington. The US State Department doesn’t lead negotiations for bilateral deals.

The Swiss president dashed to the US capital Tuesday in a last-minute attempt to prevent her American counterpart from imposing the highest tariff of any developed nation on Switzerland. Donald Trump announced the measure last week, and it’s set to take effect Thursday — leaving the Swiss with a tight window to try to sway him.

Keller-Sutter traveled to America without a formal invite from the White House, according to a person familiar with the matter, so it remains to be seen whether the US president will agree to meet.

The two spoke on the phone last Thursday, with Trump telling CNBC that “the woman was nice, but she didn’t want to listen” to his complaint about Switzerland’s massive trade surplus with the US.

Asked about the latest on Switzerland, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said that “I’m not aware of any changes since yesterday, but it’s a fast moving thing.”

“You know, we’ve got Switzerland coming in and trying to renegotiate their tariffs, and we’ll see how it goes,” he told Fox Business.

The level of Trump’s tariff stunned the Swiss after talks that they thought looked promising. If the tariff rate came into effect across the board — including on pharmaceuticals — that would put up to 1% of Switzerland’s economic output at risk over the medium term, according to Bloomberg Economics.

The paradox faced by the Swiss president — who also is her country’s finance minister — is that any concessions may be politically costly without meaningfully curbing the US-Switzerland trade gap.

The $38 billion overhang as of last year is probably the main obstacle to any deal. The nature of the massive Swiss surplus with the US — primarily down to gold, pharmaceuticals, watches and medical devices — means a quick reduction is unlikely.

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Stocks

Shares of Advanced Micro Devices slumped more than 5% after the chipmaker’s earnings fell short of earnings expectations and raised concerns about the timing of a restart in China shipments.

The Santa Clara, California-based company reported adjusted earnings of 48 cents per share, falling short of the 49 cents per share expected by analysts polled by LSEG.

CEO Lisa Su singled out the hit from U.S. controls on artificial intelligence chips in a call with analysts.

“AI business revenue declined year over year as U.S. export restrictions effectively eliminated MI308 sales to China, and we began transitioning to our next generation,” Su said.

For the current quarter, AMD forecasted $8.7 billion in revenue, plus or minus $300 million, versus $8.3 billion expected by analysts. The company said its guidance does not account for revenue from its MI308 AI chip designed for the China market to work around chip restrictions.

During an interview with CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Wednesday, Su said the company has been working closely with the Trump administration on license requirements necessary to ship its chips to China, but took a “prudent” approach to its guide.

“From our standpoint, we think we have an extremely strong portfolio,” she said. “Tens of billions of dollars is the opportunity in a market that’s going to be, let’s call it 500 billion plus over the next few years.”

Earlier this year, AMD said it would take a $800 million hit during the second quarter as a result of chip restrictions. AMD said in July it plans to soon resume those shipments as the Department of Commerce gets set to restart application review.

Some Wall Street analysts raised concerns over how soon those shipments may begin. Analysts at Morgan Stanley called the timing of the restart in China shipments “vague,” adding that the company requires a “near terms upside in GPU” to keep its premium.

“China upside sounds like it will take time to materialize (and it sounded like we shouldn’t count too much on it even if licenses are granted), pull-forward and inventory risks remain, and opex continues to march higher which is limiting earnings leverage,” wrote Bernstein analysts.

Investors also raised concerns about the company’s datacenter business, which grew 14% to $3.2 billion and includes its central processors and graphics processing units.

“We are more guarded on the company’s ability to drive significant scale in Datacenter GPUs over time, and think operating leverage is likely to be hampered by the significant OpEx we believe is needed for the company to support its software and systems efforts tied to datacenters,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Su said Wednesday the company is seeing strong forecasts for compute from some of its largest customers and anticipates an “inflection point” into the third quarter.

“The data center business is actually the main driver of our growth, and we look at that as the opportunity in front of us,” she added.

Despite the post-earnings move, AMD’s revenues grew 32% from a year ago to $7.69 billion and topped a $7.42 billion estimate from analysts polled by LSEG. Net income jumped to $872 million, or 54 cents per share, up from $265 million, or 16 cents per share in the year-ago period.

Source: cnbc

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Adam

Stocks

U.S. stock futures are pointing slightly higher as a slew of corporate earnings reports roll in; Walt Disney (DIS) shares are slipping in premarket trading as the entertainment giant reported fiscal third-quarter sales that missed expectations; Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock is falling after the chipmaker reported quarterly income that was in line with expectations even as revenue soared; Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares are sinking on an earnings miss and weak outlook; and Snap (SNAP) shares are plummeting as its earnings fell short of estimates. Here's what investors need to know today.

US Stock Futures Tick Higher as Investors Review Corporate Earnings

U.S. stock futures are pointing slightly higher as investors pour over lots of corporate earnings reports. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.4% after the blue-chip index closed slightly lower in the prior session, while both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are pointing 0.2% higher after the indexes ended lower yesterday. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is slightly up at just over $114,000. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield ticking. Oil futures are higher by nearly 2%. Gold futures are declining.

Disney Reports Revenue Miss, Big Deals for ESPN

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) shares are nearly 2% in premarket trading after the entertainment giant reported fiscal third-quarter results and announced multiple new deals. Disney reported sales of $23.69 billion, just below Visible Alpha consensus, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.61 that beat them. Disney announced that its ESPN unit will acquire NFL Network and other league media assets in exchange for a 10% equity stake in the sports giant. Disney also said its direct-to-consumer sports service, simply called "ESPN," will launch Aug. 21, and added an exclusive deal with WWE to be the U.S. home of the wrestling promotion's premium live events, including "Wrestlemania," starting next year.

AMD Stock Falls as Profit Underwhelms Investors

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are down 6% in premarket trading as investors apparently are underwhelmed by second-quarter profit of $0.48 per share that was in line with projections. AMD posted revenue that jumped 32% year-over-year to a record $7.67 billion, well above the $7.43 billion consensus estimate of analysts polled by Visible Alpha. AMD also said it took a roughly $800 million hit on U.S. export controls of its MI308 chip. The company has said it's ready to resume deliveries of the chip to China once it receives approval from U.S. regulators.

Supermicro Stock Tumbles on Worse-Than-Expected Results, Weak Outlook

Super Micro Computer (SMCI), or Supermicro, shares are sinking 17% in premarket trading after the server maker reported disappointing quarterly results while issuing weak earnings guidance. Supermicro reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.41 on sales that increased 7.5% year-over-year to $5.76 billion. However, estimates from analysts tracked by Visible Alpha called for $0.45 and $6.01 billion, respectively. Its adjusted EPS outlook for the current quarter was for $0.40 to $0.52 when estimates called for $0.60. Entering Wednesday, Supermicro shares had soared nearly 90% this year after almost being delisted from the Nasdaq over corporate governance and accounting issues.

Snap Stock Plunges as Results Fall Short

Shares of Snap (SNAP) are sinking by 18% in premarket trading after the social media firm reported second-quarter results that fell short of analysts' estimates. The Snapchat operator reported adjusted EBITDA of $41.3 million, while Visible Alpha estimates called for $47.0 million. The company also posted revenue that increased 9% to $1.34 billion, a tick below Visible Alpha consensus.

Source: finance.yahoo

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James Whitman

Economic

Political

President Donald Trump on Wednesday is expected to celebrate at the White House a commitment by Apple to increase its U.S. investments by an additional $100 billion over the next four years.

“Today’s announcement with Apple is another win for our manufacturing industry that will simultaneously help reshore the production of critical components to protect America’s economic and national security," White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said.

Apple had previously said it intended to invest $500 billion domestically, a figure it will now increase to $600 billion. Trump in recent months has criticized the tech company and its CEO, Tim Cook, for efforts to shift iPhone production to India to avoid the tariffs his Republican administration had planned for China.

While in Qatar earlier this year, Trump said there was “a little problem” with Apple and recalled a conversation with Cook in which he said he told the CEO, “I don’t want you building in India.”

India has incurred Trump’s wrath, as the president signed an order Wednesday to put an additional 25% tariff on the world’s most populous country for its use of Russian oil. The new import taxes to be imposed in 21 days could put the combined tariffs on Indian goods at 50%.

As part of the Apple announcement, the investments will be about bringing more of its supply chain and advanced manufacturing to the U.S.

Apple Inc., which is based in Cupertino, California, didn't immediately comment Wednesday.

Bloomberg News first reported the announcement of Apple’s additional investment commitment.

Source: The Associated Press

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Damon

Economic

Commodity

US President Donald Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over its purchase of Russian energy, the White House said Wednesday, hours after talks between the Washington and Moscow over the war in Ukraine failed to yield a breakthrough.

The new levy — which will stack on top of a 25% country-specific tariff set to be implemented overnight — will take effect within 21 days, according to an executive order signed by Trump.

“They’re fueling the war machine. And if they’re going to do that, then I’m not going to be happy,” Trump said Tuesday in an interview with CNBC, referring to India’s purchases of Russian energy.

The iShares MSCI India ETF fell to session lows after Trump’s announcement. Oil prices jumped and the Indian rupee weakened sharply against the dollar.

Trump has escalated his fight with India over trade, unilaterally imposing a tariff rate after months of negotiations failed to secure a deal. He accused New Delhi of refusing to ease access for American goods and criticized its membership in the BRICS group of developing economies.

The US president has also expressed frustration with Russian leader Vladimir Putin as efforts to broker a truce with Ukraine have made little progress. Trump has given Moscow an Aug. 8 deadline to reach a ceasefire or face potential sanctions, and has threatened trading partners with so-called secondary tariffs to discourage purchases of Russian energy.

The Kremlin said a meeting between Putin and US envoy Steve Witkoff earlier Wednesday only yielded an exchange of “signals.”

“On our part, in particular, some signals were conveyed on the Ukrainian issue,” the Russian president’s foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, told reporters, without elaborating. “Corresponding signals were also received from President Trump.”

Ushakov said the negotiations that lasted almost three hours were “useful and constructive,” and also focused on prospects for developing US-Russia relations. Moscow will wait for Witkoff to report back to Trump before commenting further, Ushakov added.

Ahead of the talks, Trump suggested he would impose increased levies on other countries, including China, that like India buy energy from Russia.

“We’ll be doing quite a bit of that,” Trump told reporters. “We’ll see what happens over the next fairly short period of time.”

Ukraine’s allies have said energy purchases by India, China and other nations have propped up Putin’s economy and undercut pressure on Moscow to end a war that is now in its fourth year.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Donald Trump’s words and actions rarely align perfectly. If you watch carefully, what he doesn’t say can be just as telling as what he does.

“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods,” he told the nation ahead of his re-election. The US president declared that 2 April would “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn”, only to pause tariffs a week later.

He promised peace in Ukraine on day one of his presidency, only to later clarify this was “said in jest”; and he has claimed very few people can beat him at golf, only for footage from Scotland to raise questions over just how honest that round might be.

As a real estate mogul, reality TV star and political campaigner, Trump learned to bend narrative to his will, even if it meant straying from reality.

As president, this often leaves a gap between what he says and what he does. In many cases, the administration’s actions are more important to follow than the firehose of words.

If you were, say, a US business buying coffee from Brazil, you might have rushed to import it last week after Trump insisted 1 August was the cast-iron deadline for new tariffs. “It stands strong, and will not be extended,” he wrote on Wednesday – hours before signing an executive order that said new steep tariffs on the country would come into force on 8 August, after all.

And if you’re a US consumer, you might reasonably ask how inflation can be “dead”, as the White House has claimed, if you’re still shelling out more on groceries each month.

The president has an awful lot to say about tariffs. They will, he argues, raise “trillions” of dollars for the US federal government; eliminate trade deficits with other countries; and even punish Brazil for putting his ally the former president Jair Bolsonaro on trial for allegedly seeking to seize power after losing the 2022 presidential election. The list goes on.

But what about what the president doesn’t say?

Trump was re-elected last November after repeatedly pledging to rapidly bring down prices for Americans. This assurance formed a central pillar of his election campaign – a regular refrain in rallies, interviews and debates – as millions found it harder to make ends meet after years of inflation.

Every policy comes at a cost. Every tax must be paid by someone, somewhere. For consumers, the Budget Lab at Yale estimates the short-term price impact of Trump’s tariff changes is equivalent to an average per household income loss of $2,400.

What Trump doesn’t really talk about is the impact of his aggressive tariff agenda on US is prices. One of the few times he has acknowledged it might actually exacerbate inflation led to a bizarre tangent about dolls back in May. Acknowledging that tariffs might cause price rises, Trump suggested American children might have to settle for having “two dolls instead of 30 dolls”.

Back then, Joe Biden was still to blame for any signs of strife in the economy, according to Trump. Now he argues almost daily that the Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, is responsible.

The biggest indication yet that the US economy is creaking on Trump’s watch came on Friday, when official data revealed that the labor market had stalled this summer. He unceremoniously fired the veteran official in charge of the statistics – and alleged, without evidence, that the numbers had been rigged.

With higher US tariffs now in place on a string of countries, the president and his administration will inevitably say a lot about the benefits of his economic strategy. They are already trying to stifle evidence of drawbacks. They might even raise the prospect of a handout – pitched as a sign of this policy’s success, rather than a concession that many Americans are still hard up.

But if you’re running a small business reliant on trade, or walking into the grocery store on a budget, reality supersedes rhetoric. Words don’t pay the bills.