Trump Calls for Evacuation of Tehran as Israel Vows More Strikes

Political

Middle East Situation

Summary:

President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran on Monday, hours after he urged the country’s leadership to sign a deal to limit its nuclear program

President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Iran’s capital Tehran on Monday, hours after he urged the country’s leadership to sign a deal to limit its nuclear program and Israel signaled strikes would continue.

“Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign,” Trump wrote in a social media post from a Group of Seven leaders’ summit in Alberta, Canada. “What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

It wasn’t clear what Trump was referring to but hours earlier at the meeting, Trump had said Iran wanted to make a deal, and “as soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something.” He didn’t give any more details.

Israeli officials have said their forces have taken control over much of the Iranian airspace and severely damaged key facilities used in its missile and nuclear programs since the assault was launched Friday, sparking fears of widening conflict in the Middle East.

Earlier Monday, Israel had warned one Tehran district to evacuate in anticipation of a fourth day of strikes, and video footage has shown massive traffic jams as people seek to escape the city.

“They want to stop and continue producing the weapons of death, both the nuclear weapons that threaten our existence and the ballistic missiles, but we are committed to destroying these two threats,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a press conference Monday, before Trump’s latest comments. “If that can be achieved in another way, please – but we gave it a chance for 60 days,” he added, referring to the period that ended with Israel’s attacks Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

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James Whitman

Economic

Political

China–U.S. Trade War

Prime Minister Keir Starmer reached an agreement with US President Donald Trump to implement trading terms disclosed last month to slash US tariffs on key British exports and raise UK quotas on certain American agricultural products.

Trump and Starmer on Monday presented a document signed at the Group of Seven meeting in Kananaskis, Canada, agreeing to move forward on measures easing trade of cars, agricultural and aerospace products — but falling short of an immediate ease of steel tariffs, a key British ask.

“It’s done and so we have our trade agreement,” Trump told reporters, while Starmer said: “This now implements on car tariffs and aerospace, a really important agreement.”

The two men provided no further immediate details, and didn’t say when the new tariff levels will enter force. When in place, the deal will be the first sealed by Trump following his decision to ratchet up tariffs against countries worldwide. While the US president has also secured a trade framework with China that lowered escalating tariffs, deals with other trading partners have proved more elusive.

For Starmer, reaching an agreement sheltering key industries from more aggressive tariffs before other countries is a vindication of his diplomatic approach refusing to overtly criticize Trump — but the absence of steel for now is a major blow, with a UK official saying tariffs remained at 25%.

For the US president, it’ll be touted as a signal that his tariff war is bearing fruit after winning UK concessions on agriculture.

The deal on steel had been subject to doubt amid US concerns about Chinese ownership of British Steel. While the UK government has taken effective control of the manufacturer, its legal owner remains China’s Jingye Group. On Monday, the US agreed to exempt the UK up to a certain quota that has not been set.

Under the framework document published in May, the US agreed to cut tariffs on cars imported from the UK to 10% from 27.5% for the first 100,000 vehicles each year, and drop levies on steel to zero from 25%. In return, the UK vowed to increase tariff-free quotas on US beef and ethanol.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Political

Economic

Senate Republicans propose to cut trillions of dollars in taxes for households and businesses in their version of President Donald Trump’s signature economic package, a plan that comes at the expense of curbing health coverage for some low-income Americans and adding to US deficits.

The new version of the bill expands some tax breaks while raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, instead of $4 trillion in the House-passed measure. It largely hews to the House bill as Senate GOP leaders aim to avoid a protracted negotiation on the substance of the bill that could risk the US defaulting on a payment obligation when Treasury can no longer employ extraordinary debt limit measures as soon as mid-August.

A deal on the state and local tax deduction is notably absent from the draft. The bill includes the current $10,000 SALT cap as a placeholder while lawmakers continue to negotiate the politically important write-off.

“We understand that it’s a negotiation,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Monday. “Obviously there had to be some marker. We are prepared to have discussions with our colleagues here in the Senate and figure out a landing spot.”

Thune added that his chamber plans to vote on the bill next week in order to meet a July 4 deadline to send the legislation to Trump.

Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo and other Senate Republicans have pushed to reduce the $40,000 cap included in the House version of the bill. House lawmakers representing high-tax states have threatened to block the measure if the cap is lowered. Current law allows only a $10,000 cap for individuals and couples, though the limit is set to expire at the end of the year.

The committee draft’s biggest change is making permanent three business tax breaks that in the House version expire after 2029. That includes the research and development deduction, a provision expanding debt interest write-offs and expensing for new equipment, including most machinery and factories. The interest expensing changes benefit banks, while research-heavy sectors like pharmaceuticals and information technology should benefit from the longer research and development break.

However, the bill pared back a House proposal to increase a business deduction for closely held businesses to 23% from 20%. The Senate plan makes permanent the current 20% write-off that is set to expire at the end of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Middle East Situation

Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $108,000 threshold on June 16 as tensions of war escalating in the Middle East fell after reports surfaced that Iran was open to negotiations with the US and Israel.

Bitcoin’s move up regained the price level surrendered on June 12 while markets processed the initial flare-up in Israeli-Iranian hostilities.

The “Bitfinex Alpha” report published on June 16 described the formation as a “healthy consolidation phase within an ongoing upward path,” noting that last week’s retreat measured only 9% from peak to trough. This is well inside the cycle’s median 7% drawdown.

Traders briefly drove the Fear & Greed Index into the “Fear” bracket on June 13. However, the magnitude of the decline matched routine volatility observed in 41% of trading sessions during the current cycle, according to the report.

As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $108,621.47, up 3.32% over the past 24 hours.

Upward consolidation

Price action since mid-May continues to oscillate between roughly $102,000 and the January all-time high near $109,590.

During the trading window from June 9 to June 12, Bitcoin initially advanced 4.7% to retest the record high near $112,000, then reversed after news of an Israeli strike on Iran triggered broad de-risking in oil, equities, and crypto.

Market participants unwound leveraged longs, pushing Net Taker Volume to negative $197 million, the most negative reading since June 6.

The report framed such extremes as a historical marker for local bottoms, signaling that forced sellers had largely exited while larger wallets accumulated inventory.

Order-flow data implies limited downside

The seven-hour average of Net Taker Volume has remained negative since June 12, highlighting short-term selling flow even as spot prices rebounded.

The report noted that support was between $102,000 and $103,000, adding that sustained trade above that level would suggest that bids continue to absorb supply cleared by momentum accounts.

On the upside, failure to close decisively through $109,590 would keep Bitcoin range-bound and frustrate breakout strategies premised on an immediate extension.

Macro drivers still inject volatility. Brent crude advanced with Middle East risk, and US Treasury yields climbed, factors that typically tighten financial conditions and siphon liquidity from high-beta assets such as crypto.

Yet, the report observed that Bitcoin’s relative drawdown versus historical norms, coupled with the rapid re-entry of buyers once the panic subsided, points to resilient underlying demand.

Market context favors accumulation

The current positioning contrasts with the double-top pattern that preceded the 2021 slide. Currently, fear surfaces quickly, suggesting cleaner balance sheets and lower leverage.

The report argued that this sentiment profile could shorten correction length, provided external shocks do not intensify.

With the halving narrative still in play and exchange-traded fund inflows providing an additional buyer channel, traders will watch to see whether the spot closes above the consolidation ceiling or retests the lower boundary near $103,000.

Until either event materializes, Bitcoin continues to alternate between support and resistance, providing liquidity for systematic strategies and incremental entry points for long-term allocators.

Bitcoin Market Data

At the time of press 10:21 pm UTC on Jun. 16, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is up 3.72% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $2.16 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $48.7 billion.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Central Bank

Middle East Situation

A prolonged conflict between Israel and Iran may do more than rattle energy markets. One argument on Wall Street is that it could push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner than expected.

"A sustained rise in oil prices could cause the Fed to strike a more dovish tone," Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet wrote in a recent note to clients, arguing that an extended oil shock could dent demand and potentially spill over into an otherwise resilient labor market.

That's because historically, sudden spikes in oil prices tend to cause only a temporary rise in inflation that the Fed usually overlooks. But with the economy already softening, a persistent surge could pose a bigger threat to growth and jobs than to inflation itself.

"The economy has slowed and is vulnerable to anything else going wrong, including a sudden and persistent increase in oil prices," Sweet said. "If the Fed views the hit to the economy and the labor market as greater than the temporary boost to inflation, the central bank could signal that it's open to cutting interest rates sooner."

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that tensions between Iran and Israel had eased, sparking a rally in US equities and stabilizing crude oil prices to around $70 a barrel following last week's biggest price surge in three years.

Still, Sweet, whose baseline forecast is that the Fed will deliver its first rate cut in December, noted it may take weeks before markets gain a clearer sense of the direction of oil prices.

While the Fed can afford to be patient, Sweet said, "a significant and sustained increase in oil prices could bring forward the rate cut by a meeting because of the damage it will do to the economy, which is harder to fix than waiting out the temporary acceleration in headline inflation."

"This is a potential hot topic at a future Federal Open Market Committee meeting, but not next week's," Sweet added, echoing others on Wall Street who firmly believe the Fed will remain on pause for the foreseeable future.

That said, the inflationary impact is the other side of the coin.

Wall Street analysts have warned that a prolonged conflict and the potential closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices as high as $130 a barrel, pushing US inflation back toward 6%.

This would likely lead to higher gas prices, which have been a key factor in the disinflationary trend over the past several months. According to the latest May CPI report, gas prices have fallen 12% over the past year. The government's energy index declined 1% month over month in the most recent reading.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Middle East Situation

Commodity

Oil fell on signs that the conflict in the Middle East may avoid disrupting crude production, with Iran seeking to deescalate hostilities with Israel.

West Texas Intermediate slid 1.7% to settle below $72 a barrel after spiking to start the session and swinging in an $8 throughout the day. US President Donald Trump said Iran wants to talk about deescalating the conflict, helping quell fears that a protracted war would engulf a region that produces around a third of the world’s crude.

“The question is — will Israel really be on board with that?” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “What this does suggest, though, is that the chatter about the Strait of Hormuz may have been overstating the threat.”

Still, oil markets remain on edge after Israel launched an attack on the South Pars gas field, forcing the halt of a production platform, following strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites and military leadership last week. However, critical crude oil-exporting infrastructure has so far been spared and there’s been no blockage of the vital Strait of Hormuz.

While an attack on Iran’s gas production is a concern, the biggest fear for the oil market centers on Hormuz. Middle East producers ship about a fifth of the world’s daily output through the narrow waterway, and prices could soar further if Tehran attempts to disrupt shipments through the route.

Oil prices remain significantly higher than where they were before the attacks began. Crude gained more than 7% in the session after air strikes began on Friday, leading to record volumes of producer hedging as well as futures and options changing hands. Wall Street analysts have been quick to highlight the risks the conflict could pose.

RBC Capital Markets said the fact both sides have targeted energy infrastructure shows a clear cause for concern, with the key export hub of Kharg Island and oilfields in Iraq potentially exposed. Morgan Stanley hiked its crude price forecasts by $10 a barrel, citing the increased risk from the conflict.

For now, the majority of the effects have been confined to the shipping market. Navigation signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are facing increasing interference at a level and intensity that is having a significant impact on positional reporting, the UK Navy said.

Some shipowners are reluctant to accept bookings in the region, citing safety concerns. Benchmark supertanker rates from the Middle East to China soared more than 20% on Friday.

Source: Bloomberg

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Cryptocurrency

Political

Crypto exchanges Coinbase and Gemini are close to securing regulatory approvals granting them access to operate across the EU, Reuters reported on June 16, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the report, the expectation has intensified tensions among national regulators over the speed and oversight of new licensing under the bloc’s landmark crypto framework.

The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, in force since early this year, allows any member state to issue a license that unlocks the entire 27-nation market.

While hailed as a step toward aligning crypto oversight with traditional finance, some regulators privately warn that inconsistent enforcement risks creating regulatory blind spots for an industry valued at roughly $3.3 trillion.

Gemini looks for Malta approval

According to two sources, Gemini is close to receiving approval from Malta, which has already signed off on OKX and Crypto.com licenses within weeks of MiCA’s rollout. The country argues its quicker process stems from years of experience supervising crypto businesses.

A spokesperson for the Malta Financial Services Authority told the newswire that four crypto licenses have been issued to date, adding that stringent money-laundering checks remain in place.

Meanwhile, one source revealed that the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has examined Malta’s licensing procedures and is preparing an internal report.

ESMA declined to comment on the matter.

France’s financial markets regulator has publicly cautioned that ESMA’s lack of direct licensing power could spark a “race to the bottom,” as countries compete to attract lucrative crypto business.

Coinbase eyes Luxembourg license

Luxembourg is also expected to grant a license to Coinbase, marking the first approval for a US-listed crypto firm under MiCA.

Coinbase, now part of the S&P 500, employs around 200 staff across Europe and plans to expand its Luxembourg office by more than 20 people this year, a company spokesperson said.

Luxembourg’s financial supervisor did not comment on the pending application, but one official familiar with the matter rejected suggestions that the country’s standards were too lenient, arguing some critics are motivated by competition to lure crypto firms elsewhere.

The EU’s internal split over licensing comes as lawmakers debate expanding ESMA’s authority to ensure consistent enforcement of MiCA rules amid the risks posed by the US deregulating the industry.

While Brussels sets regulatory frameworks, national agencies retain licensing power, a system now under pressure in one of the world’s fastest-moving financial sectors.

The outcome of these approvals could shape how Europe balances investor safeguards with ambitions to be a global crypto hub, as memories of past industry scandals, such as FTX’s 2022 collapse, still loom large over regulators’ efforts to keep pace with innovation.