Trump Ally Loses Bid To Open July 29 Fed Meeting To Public

Central Bank

Political

Summary:

A federal judge in Washington denied a request by an investment firm led by an ally of President Donald Trump for public access to Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

James Fishback’s Azoria Capital sued Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other Fed officials last week, claiming the central bank’s decades-old practice of holding its monetary policy meetings behind closed doors violates the Sunshine in Government Act, which sets transparency requirements for federal agencies.

But US District Judge Beryl Howell said at a hearing Monday that the Sunshine Act doesn’t apply to the FOMC meeting. She said she was denying Azoria’s request for an emergency order opening the July 29 meeting because the firm was unlikely to win its suit.

The FOMC meets eight times a year to decide interest rates, releasing statements on its policy decisions immediately following the meetings. Powell holds press conferences half an hour after the release of the statements, answering reporters’ questions for about an hour.

Fishback, who launched the FSD, or Full Support for Donald, Political Action Committee earlier this month has vocally backed the president in calling for Powell to lower interest rates. In its suit, Azoria said access to FOMC meetings was necessary to determine if Powell or other Fed officials were basing rates decisions on politics.

A spokesperson for Azoria didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

The case is Azoria Capital v. Powell, 25-cv-02388, US District Court, District of Columbia (Washington).

Source: Bloomberg

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Central Bank

Economic

Singapore’s central bank will likely leave its monetary policy unchanged for the first time this year, adopting a wait-and-see approach as policymakers gauge looming US tariffs that risk weighing on growth.

Fourteen of 19 economists in a Bloomberg survey forecast the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the exchange rate rather than interest rates to stabilize prices, will maintain its settings on Wednesday. Five, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America, expect easing to continue.

The MAS loosened policy in January for the first time in five years, and again in April as the case to support the economy became stronger, following US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the ensuing global market ructions.

Singapore’s policy review comes ahead of the US Federal Reserve on July 31, with Chair Jerome Powell under increasing pressure from Trump to cut interest rates. The Fed is widely expected to hold steady, as it awaits clarity on the inflation impact from Trump’s tariffs, amid a wave of global cuts from Canada to the UK and Australia. Singapore Set to Hold Policy as Economy Shows Tariff Resilience_1

Singapore Set to Hold Policy as Economy Shows Tariff Resilience_1

Forecasters expecting a hold cite Singapore’s economic stability, with preliminary growth estimates this month showing the city-state dodged a technical recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. The faster-than-expected growth was led by manufacturing, services export and construction.

Chua Hak Bin, economist at Maybank Securities Pte Ltd. sees the MAS leaving its settings unchanged through the rest of the year, “in view of the resilient economic outlook and benign, but stabilizing core inflation.”

By contrast, Kai Wei Ang, Asean economist for Bank of America NA, is predicting an easing though he reckons the decision will be a “close call.”

Ang compared the current situation with April 2016, when the economy was producing close to its potential and yet the MAS eased because core inflation was forecast to average below 2%. Singapore Set to Hold Policy as Economy Shows Tariff Resilience_2

Singapore Set to Hold Policy as Economy Shows Tariff Resilience_2

Like in 2016, the economy’s negative output gap has narrowed but the outlook for core inflation appears to be “more benign,” Ang said. At the same time, Singapore’s real effective exchange rate is “elevated,” he said, suggesting the central bank will “instill its preemptive stance by flattening the slope in July, rather than wait till October.”

To meet its mandate of “medium-term price stability,” the MAS intervenes in the foreign exchange market to manage its currency within a range. It describes that process publicly, but only in general terms without providing specific figures or targets.

The main components of that policy are guiding the “slope” of the dollar’s appreciation, the “center” of that slope and the “width” of the trading band it targets.

The five analysts predicting an easing on Wednesday, for instance, expect the MAS to slightly reduce the slope of its policy band for its main Singapore dollar measure - the nominal effective exchange rate, known as S$NEER.

The MAS also doesn’t have an explicit inflation target, though it has previously said that a core inflation rate of just under 2% on average “is consistent with overall price stability in the economy.” The gauge stood at 0.6% in June.

Earlier this month, MAS Managing Director Chia Der Jiun said core inflation should remain subdued with a resurgence of underlying price pressures unlikely, while noting that policymakers are alert to risks on both sides.

One major uncertainty is the impact of US tariffs, not only on Singapore’s economy but global growth as well. Singapore was hit with a proposed 10% rate, lower than its Southeast Asian neighbors. But with trade equaling about three times its GDP, it remains exposed to any sustained slowdown in global commerce.

Seven of nine economists who responded to a question about the impact of US tariffs on Singapore’s monetary policy said the MAS was more likely to ease over 2025 and 2026. The same number expect the city-state to end up with a US import levy of 10% or lower, while three expect the rate to rise.

The view among many monetary officials around the world is that Trump’s attempt to repatriate manufacturing and rewire commerce, if enduring, may be more of a danger to growth rather than posing a threat to consumer prices. As a result, a technical recession is still possible in Singapore as the effect from businesses front-running higher US tariffs fade.

“The global outlook is uncertain,” said Philip Wee of DBS Bank Ltd. “We will be looking out for hints of a third easing at the October review, given the central bank’s base case scenario for global economic activity to slow.”

Source: Bloomberg

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James Whitman

Economic

Political

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a 90-day extension of a trade truce with China was a likely outcome with negotiations between the two countries underway in Stockholm.

“Is that a likely outcome? Sure, it seems that way, but let’s leave it to President Trump to decide,” Lutnick said in an interview Monday on Fox News when asked about reports that the two nations were considering keeping their tariff agreement in place for another three months.

Lutnick’s comments followed the start of a new round of talks between the world’s two largest economies — this time in Stockholm, where Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the respective delegations. Earlier rounds saw Washington and Beijing agree to reduce tit-for-tat levies and ease export controls on certain technology and rare-earth minerals, easing tensions that had rattled financial markets as Trump moves to enact a sweeping tariff agenda.

But that agreement is set to expire on Aug. 12, leading to new discussions aimed at extending the truce and giving the US and China more time to address issues such as duties tied to fentanyl trafficking that President Donald Trump has levied and concerns about Chinese purchases of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil. The two sides are slated to continue talks on Tuesday.

The China trade talks also come as the US gears up for a separate deadline for other trading partners, with so-called reciprocal tariffs slated to kick in on Aug. 1 against dozens of economies. Trump initially unveiled those rates in April — before pausing them after they sparked market turmoil and giving economies a change to negotiate lower duties with the US.

But that stretch has seen few deals actually materialize even after Trump extended the initial mid-July deadline to August. The president has begun issuing letters unilaterally setting rates for countries that were not able to negotiate a deal. Trump has said more letters are coming for more than 150 countries. Earlier Monday, he said that he was considering tariffs in the range of 15% to 20% for those remaining nations.

Lutnick said Trump is still weighing possible deals even with the deadline just days away.

“He’s done these big deals. He’s got really all the cards in front of him,” Lutnick said. “As he said, he’s going to decide what the tariff rate is, how much these countries are going to open their markets.”

“That’s what we’re going to do this week. We’re going to basically — he’s going to consider a few deals, of course he will, but basically what he’s going to do is he’s going to set the tariff rate for everybody and do that by the end of the week,” he added.

Trump has shown a willingness to lower rates for countries that come with fresh offers even after announcing their levies, including Japan which was told it faced a 25% rate for Aug. 1 but was able to reduce that to 15%, including for its crucial auto exports, in a deal the US president said would include the creation of a $550 billion fund to make investments in the US.

South Korea is also seeking a deal, with negotiators discussing with the creation of their own fund to invest in US projects in exchange for a lower tariff rate, including on auto exports.

Lutnick said that South Korean negotiators “flew to Scotland,” where Trump is on a trip, to meet with the Commerce secretary and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

“I mean, think about how much they really, really want to get a deal done,” Lutnick said.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

U.S. senators from both major parties plan to introduce bills this week targeting China over its treatment of minority groups, dissidents and Taiwan, emphasizing security and human rights as President Donald Trump focuses on trade with Beijing.

The three bills, seen by Reuters ahead of their introduction, have Democratic and Republican sponsors, a departure from the fierce partisanship dividing Washington.

Trump's push to reach economic agreements between the world's two biggest economies has strong support in the U.S. Congress, especially from his fellow Republicans, but has prompted some China hawks to worry that the U.S. government is de-emphasizing security issues.

"It does appear that President Trump is keen to negotiate some kind of deal with China, and gaps are opening between his approach to China and the approaches of some members of his team, as well as with Congress, which overall has been quite hawkish on China," said Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

The desire for a hard line on China is one of the few truly bipartisan sentiments in the perennially divided Congress, even as many lawmakers support Trump's efforts to rebalance the bilateral trade relationship.

"The United States cannot afford to be weak in the face of the People’s Republic of China and its aggression around the world," said Democrat Jeff Merkley of Oregon, a lead sponsor of all three bills.

"No matter who is in the White House, America's values of freedom and human rights must remain at the heart of a clear and principled vision that guides our leadership on the global stage," Merkley said in a statement.

Trump administration officials have said that Trump remains fully committed to Asia-Pacific security issues as he pursues his trade agenda and a good personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Asked for comment on Monday, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said administration officials do not get ahead of the president on pending legislation.

"President Trump has publicly discussed his desire for a constructive relationship with China. He is focused on advancing American interests, such as leveling the playing field for American industries and getting China to stop the flow of fentanyl into our country," she said via email.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters query about the bills.

TRADE VS. SECURITY

One bill, co-sponsored by Republican John Cornyn of Texas, would deny entry into the United States of current or former Chinese government officials who were deemed to have engaged in the forced repatriation of members of China's Uyghur minority.

Human rights groups accuse China of widespread abuses of Uyghurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority numbering about 10 million in its northwestern region of Xinjiang. Beijing denies any abuses.

Another bill, co-sponsored by Republican John Curtis of Utah, aims to help Taiwan as the island faces increasing pressure from China. It would support countries in Latin America and the Caribbean that maintain official diplomatic relations with Taiwan and would take other steps to deepen coordination with Taipei.

China claims the democratically governed island as its own and has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Beijing has stepped up military and political pressure against the island in recent years.

A third bill, co-sponsored by Republican Dan Sullivan of Alaska, seeks to combat "transnational repression" - efforts by any foreign government to reach beyond its own borders to intimidate, harass or harm dissidents, journalists or activists.

Facing Trump's August 12 deadline, top U.S. and Chinese economic officials will meet in Stockholm on Monday to try to tackle their longstanding disputes, hoping to extend a truce by three months and keep sharply higher tariffs at bay.

Trump "cares about opening foreign markets to American trade, and that's what he's always cared about. And that is going to run counter to a lot of national security imperatives," said Michael Sobolik, who specializes in U.S.-China relations at the Hudson Institute.

Democrats and some of Trump's fellow Republicans raised concerns about the announcement this month that Nvidia (NVDA.O), will resume sales of its H20 artificial intelligence chips to China, days after its CEO met with Trump. This reversed an AI restriction imposed in April that was designed to keep the most advanced AI chips out of Chinese hands.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Interactive Brokers is considering launching a stablecoin for customers, a move that would add one of the world’s largest discount brokerages to the list of firms using crypto, Reuters reported on July 28.

Founder Thomas Peterffy said in an interview with the newswire that the company is “working on potentially issuing stablecoins.” However, a final decision on the structure and rollout has not been made.

In parallel, the broker is establishing instant, round-the-clock stablecoin funding for brokerage accounts and providing support for asset transfers in commonly traded cryptocurrencies.

Diving deeper

Interactive Brokers, valued at approximately $110 billion, already offers crypto trading through partnerships with Paxos and Zero Hash, an exchange infrastructure provider in which it is an investor.

Among the options on the table, the firm could allow customers to fund accounts with stablecoins issued by other financial institutions, provided the issuer’s credibility is established.

Peterffy has already voiced skepticism about cryptocurrencies in the past and said he remains cautious, even as client demand grows. He added:

“It’s basically hard to grasp its fundamental value. If we see people adopting it and ascribing a value to it, I’m okay with that, but I’m still not convinced.”

Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to track the value of a stable asset, typically the US dollar, and are used to transfer value across borders without relying on traditional banking systems.

Interactive Brokers’ rival, Robinhood, unveiled the Global Dollar Network last year. The initiative is a consortium effort centered on USDG, a dollar-pegged stablecoin issued by Paxos.

The competitive backdrop highlights how large retail platforms are racing to wrap core brokerage services, such as deposits, withdrawals, and collateral management, around stablecoin rails.

Hedging against disruption

Interactive Brokers has been pushing into adjacent bets on market structure. Last year, it launched ForecastEx, a prediction market that allows investors to buy “yes” or “no” contracts tied to specific questions, a product the firm views as a hedge against disruption to its core equities, futures, and options franchise, as well as crypto.

The company ended June with approximately 3.87 million customer accounts, up 32% from the same period a year earlier, as trading activity remained elevated during a year of policy-driven volatility.

Its shares have gained roughly 47% year to date, outpacing a sector index that has risen about 20%. Analysts at Morningstar recently called the predictions market and crypto offerings an “effective hedge” for the business.

Source: Cryptoslate

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Manuel

Central Bank

Political

The Federal Reserve won a legal victory Monday when a federal judge denied a request for a temporary restraining order compelling the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to open its rate deliberations to the public starting Tuesday and Wednesday.

The request came as part of a lawsuit filed by money manager Azoria Capital against FOMC Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank policymakers in a Washington, D.C., federal court.

The lawsuit alleged the Fed was violating a 1976 federal law by keeping its monetary policy meetings behind closed doors.

Azoria Capital is led by CEO James Fishback, who is close to the Trump administration and served as an adviser to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

It argued that the Fed, by keeping its meetings closed to the public, was in violation of the Government in the Sunshine Act of 1976, passed after President Richard Nixon's Watergate scandal roiled Washington and led to calls for increased transparency in the US government.

The act requires federal agencies to keep their meetings open to the public.

But a federal judge in Washington, D.C., Beryl Howell, ruled that the Sunshine Act does not apply to the FOMC because the FOMC is not an agency and is instead a "composite of several parts."

The FOMC is comprised of Fed governors, who are appointed by the president, and regional Fed presidents, who are appointed by banks in their respective districts.

Fishback, Azoria's CEO, noted in a statement after the hearing that the judge did not dismiss its entire case, "meaning Azoria’s case for transparency and accountability from the Federal Reserve will proceed."

"Azoria looks forward to continuing our case and fighting for transparency and accountability for all Americans."

The lawsuit filed last week was one of several headaches for the Fed as the White House continues to pressure the central bank, highlighted by an unusual presidential visit to the central bank for a tour of the $2.5 billion refurbishment of its National Mall buildings.

Trump and other administration officials have criticized the project for its cost overruns.

Trump and other top White House officials have also been hammering Powell for months over his wait-and-see rate stance and his insistence that more time is needed to assess how the president's tariffs will affect the path of inflation.

Traders widely expect the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee to defy Trump and once again keep rates unchanged this Wednesday as the FOMC has for every other meeting so far in 2025. The market expects the first cut of 2025 to happen on Sept. 17, the third-to-last meeting of the year.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Economic

Stocks

Wall Street kicked off a pivotal week with the dollar climbing the most since May as a tariff deal between President Donald Trump and the European Union bolstered hopes for an extension of a China trade truce. Stocks held at record highs. Bonds edged lower.

The start of a week that will set the tone for the rest of the year in markets saw a dollar gauge up almost 1%, extending its July rally. The euro slid the most in over two months. The S&P 500 was little changed after briefly topping 6,400. Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from US sales. Oil rose as Trump said he’d shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.

Subscribe to the Stock Movers Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other Podcast Platforms. Stocks Hold at Record, Dollar Jumps on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap_1

Stocks Hold at Record, Dollar Jumps on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap_1

In the run-up to the Aug. 1 US tariff deadline, traders will go through a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity. The big event comes Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged. Then there’s a string of big-tech earnings, with four megacaps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results.

“This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”

US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security. Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is still deep in trade talks with the Trump administration.

The Treasury jacked up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to distortions from the debt limit. On Wednesday, the department will announce its plans for note and bond sales over coming months — which dealers widely see as staying unchanged.

Speaking in Scotland on Sunday to announce the EU deal, Trump gave a brief update on Washington’s relations with Beijing. “We’re very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we’ll see how that goes,” he said without elaborating. Stocks Hold at Record, Dollar Jumps on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap_2

Stocks Hold at Record, Dollar Jumps on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap_2

“It is possible that as more trade deals are announced, the level of uncertainty that has hovered over business and the economy will ease,” said Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. “Additionally, the impact of final trade deals could be less than originally forecast after the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.”

To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group, while the dollar’s strength today may reflect the perception that the new EU deal is lopsided in favor of the US, it may also reflect a feeling that America is reengaging with its major allies.

“Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report. “And we can now focus on how this all plays out.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents.

In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics. Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.

While the stock market is moving sideways after a solid run, “if we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.

“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but it’s possible that they make a stronger signal that cuts are on the horizon in the fall, especially as the inflation data continues to stay muted even in this tariff environment,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.

Gardner also says that while stock market valuations are high, that in and of itself is not a reason why valuations can’t expand even further from here.

In fact, this earnings season is off to a solid start, and all eyes will be on results from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday, and Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday.

So far, Corporate America appears to be taking tariffs in stride. With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, roughly 82% have beaten profit forecasts, on track for the best quarter in about four years, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.

Progress in trade negotiations will take the S&P 500 to a third consecutive year of 20% gains, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus, a feat unseen since the late 1990s. He raised his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,100.

Some market forecasters including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson have turned more optimistic about the S&P 500 as they expect earnings to remain upbeat.

The technical evidence suggests a broadening of participation in equities off the April low, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.

“Despite a slight easing in momentum as investors await earnings, the combination of several major indices at all-time highs and improving market breadth continues to draw investors off the sidelines, offering opportunities to buy the dip,” he said.

At RBC Capital Markets, Lori Calvasina says it would be premature to write off the impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate earnings.

“It also poses a risk to the path of stock prices if company outlooks for 2026 don’t end up being as rosy as investors have been anticipating,” she noted.

The S&P 500 is trading around 22.5 times projected earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 18.6. That’s sparked concerns that there may be little room for error.

The stock market’s stunning rebound and resilience have again emboldened equity investors, who have developed muscle memory around ‘buying the dip’,” according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

“With volatility having decoupled from stress indicators, passive indexes have ground to new highs, while the most speculative corners of the market have begun to lead,” she said. “Complacency is elevated, and valuations are rich. In this environment, we want to be stock-pickers.”

To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, this may be the most compelling intersection of technical momentum and fundamental strength we’ve seen in a long time.

“The S&P hasn’t had a 1% move in over a month and yet bears have capitulated,” he said. “No one’s willing to short this market, and even typically skeptical investors are getting pulled in. While it’s not a blow-off top yet, the odds of that happening are rising.” Stocks Hold at Record, Dollar Jumps on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap_3

Stocks Hold at Record, Dollar Jumps on Trade Hopes: Markets Wrap_3

If sentiment keeps shifting and dip buyers remain aggressive, we could see a classic melt-up – and any near-term weakness over the next several weeks is likely to be bought aggressively, he said.

“However, for now, bears are hibernating through the summer,” Hackett concluded.

“We would lean toward being more bullish than bearish on US stocks through year-end, but not outside of a balanced portfolio based on risk,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise. “However, that view is contingent on positive corporate profitability and economic growth this year, avoiding worst-case tariff scenarios, and investors remaining willing to ‘buy the dip’.”

Markets have found reassurance in several developments, according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office.

“For one, the worst fears that manifested around trade in early April haven’t materialized, and key trade agreements are being signed,” the strategists said. “Tariff rates remain vastly elevated compared to last year, but they appear manageable. In our view, it’s likely that the cost can be shared between businesses and consumers without a meaningful impact on growth or inflation.”

Invesco strategists also noted that what should really matter for stocks in the medium and long-term is earnings.

“After a strong market rally, investors should prepare for renewed volatility in the near term,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Potential market dips could offer an opportunity for investors to build long-term exposure to stocks.”