Trump Adviser Hassett Says He's Confident Tariffs Will Prevail Despite Ruling

Economic

Political

Summary:

A top economic advisor to President Donald Trump expressed confidence Thursday that court rulings throwing out aggressive tariffs will be overturned on appeal.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said in an interview that he fully believes the administration's efforts to use tariffs to ensure fair trade are perfectly legal and will resume soon.

"We're right that America has been mishandled by other governments," Hassett said during a Fox Business interview. "This trade negotiation season has been really, really effective for the American people."

The comments follow a ruling from judges on the Court of International Trade who said that Trump exceeded his authority on tariffs, which are aimed both at combating barriers against American goods abroad and stemming the flow of fentanyl across the U.S. border.

While the Centers for Disease Control has said that fentanyl is the primary driver in domestic overdose deaths, the judges ruled that related tariffs "fail because they do not deal with the threats set forth in those orders."

Hassett bristled at the ruling and said the administration will continue its anti-fentanyl efforts.

"These activist judges are trying to slow down something right in the middle of really important negotiations," he said. "The idea that the fentanyl crisis in America is not an emergency is so appalling to me that I am sure that when we appeal, this decision will be overturned."

The administration has multiple options to get around the judges' ruling, including other sections of trade laws it can utilize. However, Hassett said that's not the plan at the moment.

"The fact is that there are measures that we can take with different numbers that we can start right now. There are different approaches that would take a couple of months to put these in place," he said. "We're not planning to pursue those right now, because we're very very confident that this ruling is incorrect."

Source: CNBC

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Adam

Economic

Central Bank

RBNZ's Hawkesby sees weaker growth, lower inflation

A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs.

The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopping 225 basis points in the current easing cycle, which has brought the cash rate down to 3.25%, its lowest level in almost three years. At yesterday's meeting, the RBNZ said that the cash rate was currently in a neutral zone, where it neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth.

FOMC minutes: Increasing uncertainly could mean "difficult tradeoffs"

In the FOMC minutes of the May 7 meeting, members expressed concern about the government's fiscal and trade policy. Members said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further", making it appropriate to remain cautious until these policies became clearer. Members warned that if inflation remained high and growth and employment weakened, the Fed might have to make "difficult tradeoffs".

There was another twist to the Trump tariffs saga, as the US Court of International Trade declared the tariffs illegal. The Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing wide-sweeping tariffs against US trading partners. The decision puts a hold on the tariffs, but that may not last long as the US Justice Department has filed an appeal.

NZD/USD Technical

NZD/USD has pushed below support at 0.5954 and 0.5937. Below, there is support at 0.5914

There is resistance at 0.5977 and 0.5994

New Zealand central bank sees less growth, FOMC says it will remain cautious, Trump tariffs upended_1

NZDUSD 4-Hour Chart, May 29, 2025

Source: marketpulse

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are posting slight gains in early U.S. trading Thursday, while silver prices are moderately up. Trader and investor risk appetites are upbeat late this week, evidenced by the U.S. stock indexes hitting three-month highs overnight. That is limiting buying interest in the safe-haven metals. August gold was last up $3.50 at $3,325.90. July silver prices were last up $0.315 at $33.475.

The marketplace is mulling over the news that a three-judge panel from the U.S. Court of International Trade in New York on Wednesday ruled against President Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs. The federal court has nationwide jurisdiction over tariff and trade disputes. The ruling found that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act by imposing the tariffs without congressional approval. The Trump administration filed a notice of appeal. Bottom line: A sustained loss for Trump could scramble much of his trade agenda and impact how other countries negotiate with the U.S. Traders and investors will watch this development closely and it will likely remain very fluid.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly higher openings today in New York. Risk appetite is upbeat in the general marketplace today.

The FOMC minutes from Wednesday afternoon contained no major surprises but the Wall Street Journal reported the minutes “strongly suggest the Fed isn’t close to lowering rates anytime soon.” The FOMC minutes indicated higher concerns about stagflation—slower economic growth and higher inflation.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly firmer and trading around $62.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently at 4.55%.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the second estimate for second-quarter GDP, pending home sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.

Gold price up just a bit amid U.S. trade tariff uncertainty_1

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,400.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,200.00. First resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of $3,352.00 and then at $3,375.00. First support is seen at $3,300.00 and then at the overnight low of $3,269.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Gold price up just a bit amid U.S. trade tariff uncertainty_2

July silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.015. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $31.78. First resistance is seen at $33.75 and then at $34.015. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at $32.74. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Source: kitco

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Adam

Economic

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, while the jobless rate appeared to have picked up in May as labor market conditions continue to ease.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000 for the week ended May 24, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

Worker hoarding by employers following difficulties finding labor during and after the COVID-19 pandemic is underpinning the jobs market. Nonetheless there has been an uptick in layoffs because of economic uncertainty as President Donald Trump pursues an aggressive trade policy, which economists say is making it challenging for businesses to plan ahead.

A U.S. trade court on Wednesday blocked most of Trump's tariffs from going into effect in a sweeping ruling that the president overstepped his authority. Economists said the ruling, while it offered some relief, had added another layer of uncertainty over the economy.

A report from the Bank of America Institute noted a sharp rise in higher-income households receiving unemployment benefits between February and April compared to the same period last year. Its analysis of Bank of America deposit accounts also showed notable rises among lower-income as well as middle-income households in April from the same period a year ago.

Economists expect claims in June to break above their 205,000-243,000 range for this year, mostly driven by difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations, following a similar pattern in recent years. That would not suggest a material shift in labor market conditions

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May 6-7 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed while policymakers continued to view labor market conditions as broadly in balance, they "assessed that there was a risk that the labor market would weaken in coming months."

They noted that there was "considerable uncertainty" over the job market's outlook, adding "outcomes would depend importantly on the evolution of trade policy as well as other government policies."

The U.S. central bank has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December as officials struggle to estimate the impact of Trump's tariffs, which have raised the prospect of higher inflation and slower economic growth this year.

The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.919 million during the week ending May 17, the claims report showed. The elevated so-called continuing claims reflect companies' hesitance to increase headcount because of the economic uncertainty.

Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for May's unemployment rate. The jobless rate was at 4.2% in April.

Many people who have lost their jobs are experiencing long spells of unemployment. The median duration of unemployment jumped to 10.4 weeks in April from 9.8 weeks in March.

Source: reuters

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Adam

Forex

A relief rally in the dollar faded on Thursday, with the greenback holding on to only minor gains against major peers after rallying on news that a court blocked U.S. President Donald Trump from imposing import tariffs on other countries.

The initial boost to the dollar from the court ruling started to fade during London trade as market attention returned to a still uncertain trade outlook and worries about the U.S. fiscal outlook.

The dollar was last up just 0.1% at 145 yen, down from two-week highs touched earlier, trimmed gains against the Swiss franc to stand 0.1% higher at 0.8278 and was virtually flat against the euro.

"Perhaps people are reconsidering the headlines in that President (Donald) Trump still has the route to pursue sectoral tariffs - if he can't pursue these broader, more unilateral tariffs because of the court ruling," said ING's Head of Markets Research Chris Turner.

"Equally there's the issue with regard to if tax tariff revenues are constrained, then it creates more focus on the fiscal issues the U.S. faces this summer."

The trade court ruling found Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from U.S. trading partners.

"Reciprocal tariffs are off for now, but this should not alter the medium trend. Trump may find other methods to impose his economic and trade agenda, so in that respect it's uncertainty squared," said Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale.

U.S. assets including the dollar have been hurt in recent months as investors reassess historic assumptions around the strength of U.S. markets given an erratic trade policy and concern about high debt.

In a note, Scotiabank FX strategists said that the court decision and likely appeal extend the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and business decision-making, keeping a brake on global trade.

Sterling was one of the few major currencies trading up against the dollar, gaining 0.1% to around $1.3470.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, was at 99.904 after earlier rising above 100 for the first time in a week.

It remains down some 8% so far this year.

The greenback has weakened about 2% against the yen, nearly 6% against the Swiss franc and 4% against the euro since Trump slapped harsh levies on global economies on April 2.

U.S. Treasuries also sold off on Thursday, with 10-year yields up 4 basis points at 4.52%. [US/]

Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 index was up 0.3%, and U.S. stock futures jumped on a risk-on rally.

Global investor sentiment was also lifted this week after Trump delayed at the weekend his plan to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports, and investors are on the lookout for any signs of improving relations between the United States and its trade partners.

Traders meanwhile cut their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts to 42 basis points of easing compared with 50 basis points earlier in the week, LSEG data showed.

Source: Reuters

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Glendon

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin continues to hold around the $108,000 mark, consolidating within a narrow range after a sharp rally from April lows. Price action suggests strength, but momentum has cooled slightly, setting the stage for a critical few days ahead.

Technical Analysis

The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC remains above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are located in the $90,000 – $96,000 range, and have also crossed bullishly in recent weeks. The RSI sits around 63, showing that the rally isn’t yet overheated but is nearing the upper range.

A healthy consolidation around the $108,000 level could serve as a base for another leg up, provided bullish momentum holds and volume supports a breakout.

The 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a rising channel structure, and despite a recent breakdown of the lower trendline, the price has convincingly defended the horizontal support level at $106,000. This area has now become an intraday support zone.

The RSI is around the neutral 50 level, suggesting balanced momentum after a brief correction. A clean break and close above $109,000 and a return inside the channel could trigger a push towards the $112,000–115,000 range, while any breakdown below $106,000 might open the door for a short-term pullback toward the $102,000–$100,000 region.

Sentiment Analysis

Exchange Reserve

On-chain data continues to support a bullish bias. Exchange reserves are at their lowest level in years, now sitting around 2.4 million BTC. This sustained and aggressive decline reinforces the idea that investors are moving BTC off exchanges, likely for long-term storage, reducing sell-side liquidity.

With supply tightening and price climbing, the conditions remain ripe for higher valuations, especially if macro conditions stay favorable and demand from institutional channels remains strong.

Source: CryptoSlate

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

U.S. President Donald Trump could still find a workaround after suffering a major blow to a core part of his economic agenda.

The U.S. Court of International Trade on Wednesday ruled that the president had overstepped his authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs on numerous countries.

The Manhattan-based court ordered a permanent halt to most of Trump’s tariffs and further barred their future modification. A panel of three judges gave the White House 10 days to complete the formal process of stopping the tariffs. The Trump administration swiftly appealed the ruling.

Goldman Sachs

economists said the White House has a few tools at its disposal that could ensure the court ruling is only a temporary problem.

“This ruling represents a setback for the administration’s tariff plans and increases uncertainty but might not change the final outcome for most major US trading partners,” Goldman Sachs economists said in a research note.

“For now, we expect the Trump administration will find other ways to impose tariffs,” they added.

Options on the table

The Wall Street bank said the ruling blocks the 10% baseline tariff imposed by Trump on most imports, as well as the additional duties on China, Canada and Mexico – but not sectoral levies, such as those imposed on steel, aluminum and autos.

The Trump administration nevertheless has other legal means of imposing tariffs, Goldman says, flagging Section 122 of U.S. trade law, Section 301 investigations and Section 338 of the Trade Act of 1930.

Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 does not require a formal investigation and could therefore be one of the swiftest ways to get around the court roadblock.

“The administration could quickly replace the 10% across-the-board tariff with a similar tariff of up to 15% under Sec. 122,” analysts at Goldman said. They noted, however, that such a move would only last for up to 150 days after which law requires Congressional action.

Trump could also swiftly launch Section 301 investigations on key U.S. trading partners, laying the bureaucratic groundwork for tariffs — although Goldman said that this process will likely take several weeks at a minimum.

Section 232 tariffs, which are already in place for steel, aluminum and auto imports, could also be broadened to other sectors. This trade law allows the president to take action against threats to national security.

Section 338, meanwhile, allows the president to impose levies of up to 50% on imports from countries that discriminate against the U.S. Goldman noted that this particular measure has not been used before.

Michelle Schulz, founder and managing partner at Schulz Trade Law PLLC, echoed the possibility that the Trump administration would seek workarounds, including looking at ways the White House has imposed tariffs in the past.

“We have had section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods even under the previous administration, which were pretty harsh. So I can imagine that the administration will look at these provisions again and see if they can use 232, or 301, or some other mechanism where, whereby they can enforce the tariffs,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

Schulz also pointed to the fact that such tariffs require investigations.

“I think that’s the difference here. All of the tariffs that we’re talking about today with IEEPA were issued under Executive Order and pretty much just by the executive branch,” she said. “When you look at these other sections, you’re going to have the involvement of the Commerce Department and other agencies investigating whether there really has been damage” to justify tariff action.

Schulz added that such investigations could take months.

What about the Supreme Court?

James Ransdell, partner at the law firm Cassidy Levy Kent, said the court opinion marks the first of many other cases still pending — and the first substantive opinion out of federal court “to really address the meat of the plaintiffs challenge.”

Ransdell said the speed of the Trump administration’s appeal was “very unusual” and suggests the government could be working through the night to prepare its motion for an emergency stay of the order.

He added that it was “certainly a possibility” that the Supreme Court could end up having the last say.

“There is not a lot of precedent on this particular statute and on similar actions by the president, so there might be an interest that the Supreme Court has in taking this up,” Ransdell told CNBC’s “The China Connection” on Thursday.

Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, said Trump had a “very good” level of understanding of how to play the courts to get what he wants in terms of playing for time.

“The first thing he will probably do is an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court … wanting to get a ruling from them that basically says you can keep these tariffs in place while the appeals process runs through,” Blitz said Thursday.

“This king-like executive order was always going to, at some point, going to run into the courts … The difference between being a monarchy and being a constitutional democracy is the legal system,” he added.

Stocks, U.S. dollar on the rise

Equity markets around the world broadly rose on Thursday as investors reacted to the legal ruling. Asia-Pacific markets ended the day mostly higher and U.S. futures jumped.

Market reaction in Europe was more muted, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 up a mere 0.3% by early afternoon London time. The euro was last seen trading at $1.1285, little changed for the session after paring earlier losses.

Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy at Mizuho EMEA, said in a note that the limited market reaction was “because Trump still has various options to raise tariffs.”

“Things are more complicated but the end goal for Trump remains the same. In politics when there is a will, there is a way,” he said.

The U.S. dollar rose slightly against major rivals, with the U.S. dollar index

up 0.07%. So far this year, the dollar index has tumbled close to 8% amid continued market turmoil.