Trump Administration Must Fund US Consumer Finance Watchdog, Judge Says

Political

Summary:

The agency's supporters say that without it the public will be more exposed to predatory lending practices, scams and other abuse.

A federal judge on Tuesday rejected a claim by President Donald Trump's administration that it is legally barred from securing funding for the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, noting that a court order already bars the administration from shutting the agency down.

The ruling from U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson came as the CFPB faced the imminent exhaustion of funds. The Trump administration has denied the CFPB additional cash to meet expenses since taking control of the agency in February but it has been repeatedly blocked in the courts from firing workers en masse .

CFPB representatives did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Officials say cash on hand could be exhausted in early 2026 and the CFPB announced last month that an administration legal opinion held that, under the agency's governing statute, it could not seek additional funding from the Federal Reserve so long as the central bank is losing money.

But in a stinging 32-page ruling, Berman Jackson said Tuesday this was a legally baseless pretext to get around her original order, finding that "the defendants are unabashedly trying to shut the agency down again, through different means."

"It appears that defendants’ new understanding of 'combined earnings' is an unsupported and transparent attempt to achieve the very end the court’s injunction was put in place to prevent," Berman Jackson wrote, adding that the administration's "unilateral decision" to decline further CFPB funding would therefore be in violation.

The agency's supporters say that without it the public will be more exposed to predatory lending practices, scams and other abuse. Trump and others have accused it of politicized enforcement and called it a burden on free enterprise.

The agency was started to protect financial services consumers after the financial crisis of 2008.

Unlike many federal agencies, the CFPB is funded by the Federal Reserve, rather than through a budget set annually by Congress. But lawmakers this year slashed the CFPB's maximum allowable funding, meaning the agency may face tighter funding constraints regardless.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Commodity

Political

At least two oil tankers have made their way to Venezuela in recent days and others are navigating towards the country, a sign of state-run PDVSA's effort to expand floating storage and keep selling crude even as a U.S. blockade has reduced exports to a minimum.

U.S. President Donald Trump this month announced a blockade of all sanctioned vessels going in or out of Venezuelan waters as part of a strategy to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The U.S. move has cut oil exports this month to about half of their November level.

The U.S. has seized two fully loaded cargoes of Venezuelan oil and its ships are patrolling the Caribbean Sea. The pressure has scared many vessel owners, prompting re-routings and u-turns. Only a fraction of ships have kept on course to the OPEC country.

Some tanker owners have insisted. At least two ships under sanctions have arrived in Venezuela over the last few days and two more that are not under sanctions are approaching its coast, according to monitoring service TankerTrackers.com.

As part of swaps and arrangements made since the country was first placed under U.S. energy sanctions in 2019, Maduro's administration pays for a long list of purchases and services with oil, including debt service to China.

The two vessels approaching Venezuela are part of a fleet used by China and Venezuela to pay debt service with crude bound for Chinese ports. It was unclear whether China will press for a U.S. waiver to secure delivery of those cargoes.

PDVSA did not reply to a request for comment. Venezuela's oil ministry and Maduro have said oil exports will continue.

PDVSA has been negotiating price discounts and contract changes with customers this month to avoid cargo returns or crude production cut-backs. But many buyers are growing impatient as there are no real alternatives to get oil cargoes out of the country, even in non-sanctioned tankers, company sources said.

A cyberattack forced PDVSA to shut down its centralized administrative system this month. The company is now delivering cargoes at its ports at a slower pace, both to fulfill loading windows for export and to store crude and fuel in ships, expanding its storage capacity.

The only loaded vessels departing are Chevron's tankers, which continue setting sail for the U.S. under Washington's authorization, and small ships carrying oil byproducts and petrochemicals, shipping data and PDVSA documents showed.

A similar situation in 2020, when Washington ramped up pressure on Maduro by imposing sanctions on PDVSA's main trading partners, forced the country to switch to little-known intermediaries to keep selling its oil to Chinese buyers.

Those U.S. measures triggered oil output cuts, oilfield shutdowns and severe scarcity of motor fuel. It took Venezuela years to reach 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output again, recover some refining capacity and stabilize exports.

As of this week, almost two dozen tankers were visible from shore near the Jose port waiting for loading windows or for departure instructions. The volume of oil stuck in undeparted tankers increased to some 16 million barrels, from 11 million barrels in mid-December, according to the data and documents.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Commodity

Copper recorded the longest winning run since 2017 in a December rally powered by the prospect of more stress in the supply chain.

The metal rose 2.7% to settle at $12,558.50 a ton, the eighth day of gains, with positive sentiment showing resilience. Traders have been rushing metal to the US in anticipation of potential tariffs, tightening the market in the rest of the world.

Copper hit a record just below $13,000 a ton Monday in an end-of-year surge, before paring gains. Futures have rallied by more than 40% this year, setting up the biggest annual advance since 2009. A weaker US dollar — which makes metals less costly for buyers in other currencies — also has helped to bolster the gains, with a gauge of the greenback losing about 8% in 2025. Copper Racks Up Longest Rally Since 2017 With Bulls at Helm_1

Copper Racks Up Longest Rally Since 2017 With Bulls at Helm_1

Supply issues have dominated metals this year, with copper mines from Indonesia and Chile to the Democratic Republic of the Congo suffering accidents. Aluminum production, meanwhile, is under threat from higher energy costs and supply limits in China, while zinc mines have also been disrupted.

For copper, it’s the threat of US import tariffs that remain the major driver. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. warned in November there would be an extreme shortage of the metal in the rest of the world in 2026.

In the coming months, copper is likely “to be led by sentiment from investors over US copper specific tariffs, with focus on regional levels of global stocks and material entering the US, rather than underlying global fundamentals,” according to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd.

The premium for March copper futures on Comex over comparable contracts on the London Metal Exchange has come down in recent days, but inventories in the US exchange are still rising, she said. Along with a “warming” macroeconomic outlook and supply risks, “the narrative hasn’t changed for copper with this perfect storm situation” seen throughout the fourth quarter, Scott-Gray said.

All other metals on the exchange rose, led by nickel, after top producer Indonesia flagged plans to cut supply in order to boost prices.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

China–U.S. Trade War

Economic

on Thursday, in a ‌move that will largely align Mexico with the U.S. as the neighboring countries ‌place significant barriers on Chinese imports.

Approved by Congress in early December, the measure raises tariffs - most up to 35% - on countries without free trade agreements with Mexico, including China, India, South ⁠Korea, Thailand and Indonesia. ‌China is expected to bear the greatest impact.

The hikes will apply to thousands of products, including ‍automobiles, auto parts, textiles, clothing, plastics and steel.

The move has drawn strong opposition from China and some domestic industries concerned about rising costs.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and members of her administration have ‌said the tariffs seek to bolster domestic production and address trade imbalances, and insisted they are not directed at a particular country.

"This tariff modification primarily aims to safeguard nearly 350,000 jobs in sensitive sectors like footwear, textiles, apparel, steel, and automotives, ⁠while contributing to sovereign, sustainable, and inclusive reindustrialization," Mexico's economy ministry said in a statement.

The levies will also provide an additional $3.76 billion in government revenue next year as Mexico ‍works to reduce ⁠its fiscal deficit.

Many political and trade analysts believe the tariffs, which will primarily affect Chinese goods, are aimed ⁠at placating the Trump administration ahead of the upcoming review of the ‌U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA).

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Justin

Commodity

The Guinea-flagged oil tanker MT Bandra, which is under sanctions, is partially seen alongside another vessel at El Palito terminal, near Puerto Cabello, Venezuela December 29, 2025. REUTERS/Juan Carlos Hernandez

Dec 30 (Reuters) - At least two oil tankers have made their way to Venezuela in recent days and others are navigating towards the country, a sign of state-run PDVSA's effort to expand floating storage and keep selling crude even as a U.S. blockade has reduced exports to a minimum.

PDVSA did not reply to a request for comment. Venezuela's oil ministry and Maduro have said oil exports will continue.

Source: Reuters

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Adam

Stocks

At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the US stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades.

There’s plenty of angst about the risks to the bull run that’s pushed the S&P 500 Index up some 90% since its October 2022 low. The artificial-intelligence boom could turn to bust. The economy — and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decisions — could defy expectations. And President Donald Trump’s second year could bring even more unanticipated shocks than his first.

But after three years when the equity market’s rip-roaring run made a mockery of any bearish calls, sell-side strategists are marching in lockstep optimism, with the average year-end S&P 500 forecast implying another 9% gain next year. Not a single one of the 21 prognosticators surveyed by Bloomberg News is predicting a decline.

“The pessimists have just been wrong for so long that people are kind of tired of that schtick,” said veteran market strategist and longtime bull Ed Yardeni. He expects the S&P to finish next year at 7,700 — up 11% from Friday’s close — yet even he finds the lack of dissent a little concerning.

“That’s where my counter instincts come out: Things have been going my way for so long that it is kind of worrying that everyone else seems to have become optimistic,” he said. “Pessimism is on the out right now.”

Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally in 2026_1

The sentiment was reinforced by the market’s volatile year, when early 2025 selloffs unleashed by DeepSeek’s potential challenge to US AI companies and Trump’s chaotic trade war threatened forecasters’ optimistic targets.

As the S&P 500 slid toward a bear market by tumbling almost 20% from mid-February through early April, strategists slashed their forecasts at the fastest pace since the Covid crash — only to wind up bumping them back up as stocks staged one of the swiftest comebacks since the 1950s.

That extended what has been a vexing period for market soothsayers since the pandemic as the economy has been surprisingly resilient, even after Trump’s tariffs took aim at the globalization that has powered it for decades. The massive investment in AI — which has been poured into data-center construction and high-powered computer chips — has continued to push up the five tech giants that were responsible for nearly half of the S&P 500’s advance this year.

Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally in 2026_2

“It’s tricky because I think there’s been a great amount of uncertainty in the last five years, and particularly this year,” said Michael Kantrowitz, chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler & Co., who dropped the practice of publishing year-end S&P 500 targets. “When there’s a lot of uncertainty, investors are very myopic and reactive to different data points and it doesn’t take much to change the opinion and consensus.”

If the Wall Street forecasters are correct in 2026, however, stocks are heading for their longest stretch of annual gains since the lead-up to the Global Financial Crisis. The highest targets among the cohort, if they materialize, would also mark the first time the S&P has seen four years of double-digit returns since the dot-com bubble of the 1990s.

Christopher Harvey, longtime strategist who moved this year to CIBC Capital Markets from Wells Fargo Securities, was one of few prognosticators who stuck to his guns through this year’s volatility — anticipating that the S&P 500 would end the year at 7,007 — and got it right. The index closed at about 6,930 on Friday, just 1% short of his estimate.

Harvey expects the benchmark to end 2026 at 7,450, implying an approximately 8% gain. But he said “people are sleeping on a lot of macro risks.”

Among them: The possibility that the Fed will hold interest rates steady for longer than traders are currently expecting; a push by the US to raise tariffs on Canada or Mexico; or corporate executives who may try to manage earnings expectations down after what has been a solid run.

“That could begin to upset the applecart,” he said.

Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally in 2026_3

Like virtually everyone else, the analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. were surprised by the turmoil that swept through stocks early this year. By April, when Trump’s trade war rocked markets, they abandoned the positive outlook they had heading into 2025. They became the most bearish among the strategists tracked by Bloomberg, predicting the S&P would end 2025 down 12%.

In June, the bank ditched its pessimistic view to predict small gains. But even that forecast proved too conservative, with the S&P ultimately rallying nearly 18% this year.

For 2026, JPMorgan has given up on its cautious stance, anticipating the S&P will rise to 7,500 on the back of solid corporate earnings and lower interest rates.

Mislav Matejka, JPMorgan’s head of global and European equity strategy, said the optimism is also underpinned by resilient growth, cooling inflation and wagers that the surge in AI stocks reflects a potential economic transformation — not a bubble that will burst.

“If the economy is weaker than we project, the equity market may not necessarily take it negatively,” he said. “It’ll rely on the Fed to do the heavy lifting.”

While there are no doomsday predictions for US equities next year, Bank of America Corp.’s Savita Subramanian is among the few advocating some caution.

She says the benchmark will rise to 7,100 in 2026, limited by lofty valuations. But the breadth of her bull-and-bear scenarios reflect the degree of uncertainty. She says a recession could send stocks tumbling 20%. On the other hand, she sees the possibility that significantly higher-than-expected earnings could push them up as much as 25%.

For now, strategists seem to be leaning into a lesson learned the hard way over the past few years: Don’t underestimate the strength of the US stock market.

The fundamentals are supporting that view. The US economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years, bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending and calmer trade policies. And Corporate America is projected to post double-digit earnings growth again.

“Just because the year is changing, you don’t change your views,” said Manish Kabra, head of US equity strategy at Societe Generale SA.

“The profit outlook is strong and broadening beyond tech,” he said, while also flagging the economic stimulus from the Fed’s rate cuts and Trump’s tax-cut bill. “The macro set up is simply solid.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Adam

Commodity

After a historic run that pushed gold and silver prices to multiple record highs in the final days of 2025, investors are asking the unavoidable question: How long can this momentum last — or is something more fundamental underway?

According to veteran precious metals executive Robert Gottlieb, the answer lies not in short-term price targets or speculative squeezes, but in a structural shift that is redefining the role of gold and silver in global portfolios.

“This is not 1980. This is not Reddit. This is not a corner,” Gottlieb said in an interview with Kitco News. “This is people waking up to hard assets as a necessity.”

The former managing director of the precious metals desks at JPMorgan and HSBC said that both precious metals have experienced defining moments that have transformed the market.

He explained that the yellow metal’s defining moment came in 2022, after the U.S. government and its allies weaponized the U.S. dollar against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

As a result, emerging-market central banks have flooded into gold to diversify away from the U.S. dollar.

Crucially, Gottlieb emphasized that price has not been the determining factor for these buyers.

“When central banks decide to buy gold, it’s not based on price,” he explained. “It’s based on policy — what’s happening internally and externally in their country.”

Gottlieb added that this policy shift appears durable, as many central banks’ gold reserves are still relatively low.

He pointed out that this pillar of support is extremely important for investors. Central bank demand creates a persistent bid — one that underpins prices even as speculative flows ebb and flow, he said.

Meanwhile, silver’s defining moment has emerged only this year — in fact, only since the summer. Gottlieb said investors are just beginning to realize how little silver is readily available in the global marketplace.

Over the past five years, robust industrial demand has depleted above-ground silver stockpiles to critical levels. With growing investment demand, silver supply chains are stretched to extremes, and there is not enough silver in the right locations and in the right form to meet demand.

Gottlieb noted that there is currently no easy fix to the liquidity problem in the silver market. He pointed out that 12-month lease rates remain extremely elevated.

“ This is not short-term tightness,” he said. “We are seeing long-term backwardation, so to me there is still structural tightness.”

As central banks have created long-term support for gold, Gottlieb said he expects robust industrial demand to play the same role for silver.

However, while Gottlieb is bullish on both gold and silver, he warned investors that they should temper their expectations.

Why 2026 Won’t Look Like 2025 — and Why That’s Healthy

If 2025 was defined by explosive momentum, Gottlieb cautioned that 2026 will likely look very different.

“We’re not going to see another 60% or 70% year,” he said. “But that doesn’t mean the bull market is over.”

Looking to the new year, Gottlieb said he is expecting moderate gains built on structural support, not mania. Gold advancing 10–15% from already elevated levels would still translate into meaningful absolute returns, especially for institutional portfolios reallocating toward hard assets.

Silver, meanwhile, remains the more volatile — and potentially more rewarding — metal.

“The sell-offs will be bigger. The corrections will be more painful. But the long-term story is still intact,” he said.

For investors eyeing the grey metal in 2026, the message is clear: volatility is not a warning sign — it’s part of the asset class.

Silver’s sharp pullbacks, sometimes triggered by algorithmic trading or momentum-driven futures selling, can be violent. But Gottlieb views these episodes as resets rather than reversals, especially when physical markets remain tight.

“Corrections are healthy,” he said. “What matters is whether support forms — and so far, it has.”

A Structural Re-Rating, Not a Bubble

Although gold and silver are expected to experience some volatility in 2026, Gottlieb said both remain well supported, as precious metals are no longer viewed as fringe hedges or contrarian trades.

Throughout 2025, analysts and institutions began seriously questioning the traditional 60/40 portfolio model. Over the past year, many analysts have recognized the value of a more diversified portfolio, with potentially up to 20% allocated to hard assets.

“This was the structural change in 2025,” Gottlieb said. “In 2026, people don’t need to discover gold and silver — they already believe in them.”