Top 7 Must-Read Books for Mastering Technical Analysis

Economic

Summary:

Discover the top 7 books to master technical analysis and elevate your trading skills. This comprehensive guide covers essential reads for beginners and advanced traders alike.

Technical analysis is a critical skill for anyone looking to succeed in trading, whether in stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, or other financial markets. It involves analyzing price charts, patterns, and indicators to predict future market movements. While practice and experience are essential, learning from the experts can significantly accelerate your progress. In this article, we’ve compiled a list of the top 7 must-read books for mastering technical analysis. These books cater to beginners and seasoned traders alike, offering valuable insights, strategies, and techniques to help you make informed trading decisions.

1. "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy

Often referred to as the bible of technical analysis, John J. Murphy’s book is a comprehensive guide for traders of all levels. It covers everything from basic chart patterns to advanced indicators and intermarket analysis. Murphy’s clear and concise writing style makes complex concepts easy to understand, making this book a must-have for anyone serious about technical analysis.

Key Takeaways:

Understanding chart types and patterns

Mastering key indicators like moving averages and RSI

Exploring intermarket relationships and their impact on trading

2. "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison

Candlestick charts are a cornerstone of technical analysis, and Steve Nison is widely regarded as the pioneer who introduced them to the Western world. This book delves into the history, psychology, and practical application of candlestick patterns. It’s an essential read for traders who want to gain an edge by understanding market sentiment through candlestick formations.

Key Takeaways:

Identifying and interpreting candlestick patterns

Combining candlestick analysis with other technical tools

Practical strategies for trading with candlesticks

3. "Charting and Technical Analysis" by Fred McAllen

Fred McAllen’s book is a beginner-friendly guide that simplifies technical analysis without oversimplifying it. It covers the basics of charting, trend analysis, and pattern recognition, making it an excellent starting point for new traders. The book also includes practical examples and exercises to help readers apply what they’ve learned.

Key Takeaways:

Basics of charting and trend identification

Recognizing common chart patterns like head and shoulders, triangles, and flags

Building a solid foundation for advanced technical analysis

4. "Technical Analysis Explained" by Martin J. Pring

Martin J. Pring’s book is a detailed and well-structured guide to technical analysis. It’s particularly useful for intermediate and advanced traders looking to deepen their understanding of market dynamics. The book covers a wide range of topics, including momentum indicators, volume analysis, and market cycles.

Key Takeaways:

Advanced techniques for analyzing market trends

Using momentum indicators to confirm trends

Understanding market cycles and their impact on trading

5. "The Art and Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes

Adam Grimes combines the art and science of technical analysis in this insightful book. He emphasizes the importance of probability, risk management, and psychological discipline in trading. The book also includes real-world examples and case studies to illustrate key concepts.

Key Takeaways:

The role of probability in technical analysis

Developing a disciplined trading mindset

Practical strategies for managing risk

6. "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes" by Brian Shannon

Brian Shannon’s book focuses on the importance of analyzing multiple timeframes to make better trading decisions. This approach helps traders gain a broader perspective of the market and identify high-probability setups. The book is packed with practical advice and actionable strategies.

Key Takeaways:

Analyzing multiple timeframes for better decision-making

Identifying high-probability trading setups

Practical tips for improving trading performance

7. "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Thomas N. Bulkowski

Thomas N. Bulkowski’s encyclopedia is a treasure trove of information on chart patterns. It provides detailed statistics and performance data for various patterns, helping traders understand their reliability and potential outcomes. This book is an invaluable resource for traders who want to take their pattern recognition skills to the next level.

Key Takeaways:

Comprehensive coverage of chart patterns

Statistical analysis of pattern performance

Strategies for trading specific patterns

Why These Books Are Essential for Traders

Technical analysis is both an art and a science, requiring a deep understanding of market behavior, patterns, and indicators. The books listed above provide a wealth of knowledge, from foundational concepts to advanced strategies. By studying these works, you’ll gain the tools and insights needed to analyze markets effectively, make informed decisions, and improve your trading performance.

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Glendon

Economic

Gold has long been a symbol of wealth, stability, and power. For centuries, nations have accumulated gold reserves as a hedge against economic uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical risks. Even in today’s modern financial systems, gold remains a cornerstone of national wealth and a key component of central bank strategies. In this article, we’ll explore the top countries with the largest gold reserves, the reasons behind their holdings, and the role gold plays in the global economy.

Why Do Countries Hold Gold Reserves?

Gold reserves serve several critical purposes for nations:

Economic Stability: Gold acts as a safe-haven asset, providing stability during times of economic crisis or inflation.

Currency Backing: While most currencies are no longer directly tied to gold, it still serves as a form of financial security.

Diversification: Gold diversifies a country’s reserves, reducing reliance on any single asset or currency.

Geopolitical Influence: Large gold reserves can enhance a nation’s credibility and influence in global finance.

Top Countries with the Largest Gold Reserves

Here’s a look at the countries with the biggest gold holdings as of recent data:

1. United States

Gold Reserves: 8,133.5 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 79.0%

The United States holds the largest gold reserves in the world, stored primarily in Fort Knox, Kentucky. The U.S. government views gold as a critical asset for maintaining economic stability and global financial leadership.

2. Germany

Gold Reserves: 3,355.1 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 75.6%

Germany’s gold reserves are among the largest globally, reflecting its strong economy and conservative financial policies. A significant portion of its gold is stored abroad, including in the U.S. and France.

3. Italy

Gold Reserves: 2,451.8 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 69.3%Italy has maintained substantial gold reserves for decades, largely due to the efforts of its central bank, Banca d’Italia. The country views gold as a safeguard against economic instability.

4. France

Gold Reserves: 2,436.5 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 66.1%

France’s gold reserves are a legacy of its historical role as a global financial power. The Banque de France manages these reserves, emphasizing their importance for national security.

5. Russia

Gold Reserves: 2,298.5 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 23.0%

Russia has significantly increased its gold reserves in recent years, aiming to reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar and strengthen its economic sovereignty.

6. China

Gold Reserves: 1,948.3 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 3.5%

China has been quietly accumulating gold as part of its strategy to internationalize the yuan and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Its gold reserves are expected to grow further in the coming years.

7. Switzerland

Gold Reserves: 1,040.0 tonnes

Percentage of Foreign Reserves: 6.5%

Switzerland’s gold reserves reflect its historical role as a global financial hub and its commitment to financial stability. The Swiss National Bank manages these reserves with a focus on diversification.

The Role of Gold in the Global Economy

Gold remains a vital asset for central banks and governments worldwide. Its unique properties—such as scarcity, durability, and universal acceptance—make it an ideal store of value. In times of economic uncertainty, gold often outperforms other assets, providing a safety net for nations and investors alike.

Additionally, gold plays a crucial role in international trade and finance. It can be used to settle debts, back currencies, and support monetary policies. As global economic dynamics shift, particularly with the rise of emerging markets, gold’s importance is likely to grow even further.

Trends in Gold Reserves

In recent years, several trends have emerged in the management of gold reserves:

Diversification Away from the U.S. Dollar: Countries like Russia and China are increasing their gold holdings to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Repatriation of Gold: Some countries, such as Germany, have begun repatriating their gold reserves from foreign vaults to domestic storage.

Increased Transparency: Central banks are becoming more transparent about their gold holdings, publishing regular reports to build trust and credibility.

Conclusion

Gold reserves are more than just a symbol of wealth—they are a strategic asset that provides economic stability, financial security, and geopolitical influence. The countries with the largest gold holdings, such as the United States, Germany, and Russia, understand the enduring value of this precious metal. As global economic conditions continue to evolve, gold will remain a cornerstone of national and international finance.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Glendon

Economic

When it comes to trading and investing, two primary methods dominate the decision-making process: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Both approaches aim to predict future price movements and identify profitable opportunities, but they do so in very different ways. Understanding the key differences between these two methods is crucial for anyone looking to succeed in the financial markets. In this article, we’ll break down fundamental and technical analysis, explore their strengths and weaknesses, and discuss how to use them effectively.

What is Fundamental Analysis?

Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating an asset’s intrinsic value by examining related economic, financial, and qualitative factors. For stocks, this might include analyzing a company’s financial statements, management team, industry position, and growth prospects. For currencies, it could involve studying macroeconomic indicators like GDP, inflation, and interest rates.

Key Components of Fundamental Analysis:

Financial Statements: Income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements provide insights into a company’s financial health.

Economic Indicators: Metrics like unemployment rates, inflation, and GDP growth help assess the overall economy.

Industry Analysis: Understanding the competitive landscape and industry trends is essential for evaluating a company’s potential.

Qualitative Factors: Management quality, brand strength, and corporate governance also play a role in fundamental analysis.

Strengths of Fundamental Analysis:

Provides a long-term perspective on an asset’s value.

Helps identify undervalued or overvalued assets.

Useful for investors focused on long-term growth and dividends.

Weaknesses of Fundamental Analysis:

Time-consuming and requires in-depth research.

May not account for short-term market fluctuations.

Relies on historical data, which may not always predict future performance.

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical analysis focuses on analyzing price charts, patterns, and indicators to predict future price movements. Unlike fundamental analysis, which looks at an asset’s intrinsic value, technical analysis is concerned with market behavior and price trends. Traders use tools like moving averages, support and resistance levels, and candlestick patterns to make informed decisions.

Key Components of Technical Analysis:

Price Charts: Line charts, bar charts, and candlestick charts are used to visualize price movements.

Indicators: Tools like Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages, and MACD help identify trends and momentum.

Chart Patterns: Patterns like head and shoulders, triangles, and flags provide insights into potential price movements.

Volume Analysis: Trading volume can confirm the strength of a trend or signal a reversal.

Strengths of Technical Analysis:

Ideal for short-term trading and timing market entries and exits.

Helps identify trends and momentum in the market.

Can be applied to any asset class, including stocks, forex, and cryptocurrencies.

Weaknesses of Technical Analysis:

Relies heavily on historical price data, which may not always predict future movements.

Can be subjective, as different traders may interpret charts differently.

May not account for fundamental factors that can impact prices.

Key Differences Between Fundamental and Technical Analysis

Aspect	Fundamental Analysis	Technical Analysis
Focus	Intrinsic value of an asset	Price movements and market behavior
Time Horizon	Long-term	Short-term
Data Used	Financial statements, economic indicators	Price charts, patterns, and indicators
Primary Users	Long-term investors	Short-term traders
Goal	Identify undervalued or overvalued assets	Predict future price movements

How to Use Both Methods Effectively

While fundamental and technical analysis are often viewed as opposing approaches, they can complement each other when used together. Here’s how:

Combine Long-Term and Short-Term Strategies: Use fundamental analysis to identify strong assets for long-term investment and technical analysis to time your entries and exits.

Validate Trends: Use technical analysis to confirm trends identified through fundamental analysis. For example, if a company’s fundamentals are strong and its stock price is trending upward, it may be a good buy.

Manage Risk: Technical analysis can help set stop-loss levels and manage risk, while fundamental analysis ensures you’re investing in solid assets.

Conclusion

Fundamental and technical analysis are two powerful tools for traders and investors, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. Fundamental analysis provides a deep understanding of an asset’s intrinsic value, making it ideal for long-term investors. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on price movements and market behavior, making it a favorite among short-term traders. By understanding the key differences and learning how to use both methods effectively, you can make more informed decisions and improve your chances of success in the financial markets.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Justin

Political

Tensions in Northern Myanmar

The Arakan Army (AA) has captured significant territory in Rakhine State and is striving to establish itself as the legitimate government by providing public services and infrastructure. But the AA faces a legitimacy crisis due to its status as a rebel group, which hampers international recognition and disrupts trade, particularly with Bangladesh.

The AA's handling of the Rohingya refugee crisis is crucial, as its discriminatory actions and prejudices against the Rohingya undermine its efforts to gain positive international standing. The region is suffering from a severe humanitarian crisis, worsened by Cyclone Mocha and ongoing conflicts, necessitating extensive rebuilding efforts. To achieve legitimacy, the AA must overcome these governance and humanitarian challenges.

On 20 December 2024, the Arakan Army (AA) announced that it had captured the headquarters of the Myanmar junta’s Western Command — one of 14 similar commands scattered throughout the country. The Western Command was the second to fall into rebel hands, the first being the Northeastern Command, which was taken by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in August 2024. The AA holds 13 of the 17 townships in Rakhine State and declared in October 2024 that it would transform the whole state into a junta-free zone.

The AA is attempting to govern the territories it has captured by establishing infrastructure and providing public services, like levying taxes, initiating a vaccine program and introducing a judicial program. But despite significant military advances in 2024, the AA faces considerable obstacles in achieving liberation from Burmese domination, as formulated in their doctrine, ‘The Way of Rakhita’.

It emphasises the right of Rakhine people to create their own destiny, free from external influence. Having captured a large swath of territory and enjoying popular support from Arakanese people, the AA has begun portraying itself as the legitimate government of Arakan by creating so-called ‘departments’ to implement policies and provide public services.

But the AA is experiencing an international legitimacy crisis. Its status as a rebel group has hindered its attempt to engage with other countries on an equal basis. Though Bangladeshi authorities initially declined any contact with the AA, the country’s home advisor admitted that the government maintains links with both the AA and the junta to protect Bangladeshi interests.

The Myanmar–Bangladesh border being under AA control has prompted Bangladesh to establish an unofficial channel with the AA. Yet the AA still has a long way to go before being recognised as the legitimate government of Arakan.

Trade between Rakhine State and Bangladesh has halted. The last cargo vessel to leave Maungdaw in Rakhine State arrived in Bangladesh on 3 December 2024. Though the AA has attempted to revive stalled trade, Dhaka has not responded favourably. In December 2024, a consignment of rice sacks, accompanied by a tax receipt signed by an AA official was seized at a Bangladeshi port.

There is some hope that the AA will gain recognition. In March 2024, representatives from the AA met with an Indian MP to discuss the construction of a road under the Indian-funded Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project. This indicates it may only be a matter of time before both domestic and foreign stakeholders engage with the new reality in Arakan.

Whether Bangladesh will establish a relationship with the AA partially depends on whether the AA is willing to accept Rohingya refugees. Bangladesh’s foreign advisor has stressed that ‘peace and stability in the region would remain unattainable without resolving the Rohingya crisis, which necessitates their safe and secure repatriation to Myanmar’.

Bangladesh has declared that it will no longer accept additional Rohingya refugees. With the AA having near–complete control of Rakhine State, the responsibility falls on the AA to take the lead in repatriation efforts. The way in which the AA handles the issue could affect its image internationally.

Rohingya activists stationed in third countries consistently criticise the AA’s high-handed treatment of Rohingya civilians. 28 Rohingya organisations have called on the AA to uphold the rights of ethnic minorities. A report published in November 2024 states that the AA killed dozens of Rohingya with aerial bombs in August and forcibly evacuated them from Maungdaw town without providing assistance. These events underscore the tension between the AA and the Rohingya population.

The AA harbors prejudices against the Rohingyas, describing Rohingya armed groups such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army as ‘Muslim extremists’. This attitude stems from the fact that these groups collaborated with the junta and were involved in violence. The junta’s forceful conscription of Rohingyas into the military only exacerbated existing racial conflict. The way in which the AA resolves the Rohingya issue will decide whether it is hailed as a benevolent force or condemned as another genocidal armed actor.

International human rights watch group Fortify Rights recently published a statement condemning AA for human right violations. The statement cited footage of AA soldiers torturing and executing two individuals who seem to be captured Rohingya soldiers from the junta’s army and urged the International Criminal Court (ICC) to investigate. Although AA had admitted to the killings, it had rejected the ICC’s involvement as unnecessary, arguing that it has necessary mechanisms in place to deal with such cases. The case is one among many in which the international perception of AA can change due to the way it handles Rohingya issues.

Beyond the Rohingya question, the Arakan region as a whole faces a severe humanitarian crisis. The AA’s siege and the junta’s irresponsibility have caused starvation in some towns and the conflict has led to insufficient medical aid. Those fleeing Arakan to other regions are facing various difficulties, such as rising rents, discrimination and restriction on movement. Refugees sheltering in the Ramree township are in need of urgent help and 2 million Rakhine residents are on the brink of starvation. Cyclone Mocha — which made landfall on Rakhine coast — destroyed basic infrastructure and 85 per cent of existing camps for internally displaced persons (IDP). In Sittwe, only 10,634 of the 76,090 IDPs received assistance. Some people do not have homes to return to, as towns and villages were razed by the junta’s airstrikes. The AA needs to rebuild the Arakan region from scratch before it can function fully again — with much left to do for the AA to become a legitimate government.

Htet Hlaing Win is a former student at University of Yangon, Myanmar. He now works as a contributor to Myanmar session for Asia in Review published by the German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance.

Source：Eastasiaforum

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alex

Economic

The 20th-century Cold War was defined by nuclear weapons. Today, a new cold war is being waged, with artificial intelligence (AI) as the ultimate weapon. The stakes are arguably even higher, as nations compete for control of a technology that promises to redefine our world.

The US: Leading the charge in AI supremacy

The US is aggressively pursuing AI dominance. Project Stargate, a massive private-sector initiative worth US$500 billion (RM2.22 trillion) aims to solidify America’s dominance in AI development and infrastructure. Announced by President Donald Trump, Stargate is a private-sector-led endeavour led by tech giants like OpenAI chief executive officer Sam Altman, and Oracle chairman Larry Ellison and backed by SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son. It aims to build powerful data centres in Texas, centralising AI infrastructure and serving as the nerve centre for AI-powered applications like ChatGPT and beyond.

Further reinforcing this push, the CHIPS and Science Act provides substantial funding for semiconductor development — a critical component of AI advancement. Additionally, the US has strategically imposed export controls to restrict China and other competing nations from accessing advanced AI chips and manufacturing equipment, aiming to curb their progress.

China: A formidable challenger

China is the US' primary rival in the AI arena. Its New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan sets an ambitious goal of achieving global AI leadership by 2030. Heavily backed by state-controlled enterprises, China is investing extensively in AI research, chip manufacturing, and surveillance technology.

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI lab, showcased its innovation by developing a powerful open-source AI model for under US$6 million, rivalling systems like GPT-4 and Llama. The DeepSeek-R1 model is trained at a significantly lower cost and requires a tenth of the computing power of comparable AI models such as OpenAI's GPT-4o. While the model isn't fully open-source due to the unavailability of training data, the release of "open-weight" models is a significant step. DeepSeek's AI Assistant, powered by DeepSeek-V3, has overtaken rival ChatGPT to become the top-rated free application available on Apple's App Store in the US. Alibaba's Qwen 2.5 AI model, launched recently, has outperformed even DeepSeek V3 in benchmark tests.

India: An emerging AI powerhouse

The back-to-back announcements of advanced AI models from Chinese companies have raised some questions in India too. What is stopping it from developing its own foundational AI model? This was partly answered by IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw in a recent press conference. India's investment in over 18,000 high-end graphic processing units (GPUs) demonstrates its commitment to building robust computing facilities, essential for AI applications, model training, and algorithm development. Compared to global model computation costs of US$2.50 to US$3 per hour, India’s AI Model computation will cost less than 100 rupees (US$1.15 or RM5.06) per hour after a 40% government subsidy, significantly lowering the entry barrier for AI development.

Additionally, India is hosting DeepSeek on Indian servers after rigorous security protocol checks, allowing developers, coders, and researchers to benefit from its open-source code. The US$1.25 billion IndiaAI mission will further fuel AI startups and enhance the AI ecosystem.

The European Union: Championing ethical AI

While the EU may not be at the forefront of raw technological power, it is taking a leading role in ensuring AI aligns with human rights and ethical standards. The Artificial Intelligence Act seeks to regulate AI technologies, prioritising responsible and ethical implementation.

Malaysia: The rising star of Asean

As Asean chair in 2025, Malaysia is positioning itself as a key player in the region's AI development. With a focus on becoming a digital innovation hub, Malaysia has launched the National Artificial Intelligence Office (NAIO) to guide its AI strategy. The NAIO's priorities include developing a code of ethics, a regulatory framework, and a long-term AI action plan. Budget 2025 provides further support through incentives for high-tech companies, R&D, and talent development.

The Malaysia Digital Economy Corp (MDEC) has successfully onboarded 140 AI solution providers, generating RM1 billion in revenue. AI is projected to contribute significantly to Malaysia's economy, with expectations of generating approximately US$115 billion in productive capacity by 2030.

Malaysia's AI ascent: Securing a spot in the big leagues

To compete in the global AI race, Malaysia must prioritise several key areas.

1. Bolstering AI research: Malaysia needs a significantly stronger AI research ecosystem. While some initiatives exist, the funding gap compared to leading nations is vast. Top Chinese universities, for example, receive immense research funding, dwarfing that of many countries' entire academic communities. Bridging this gap requires a concerted, long-term government-industry-academia partnership focused on increasing funding for fundamental AI research, fostering industry-academia collaboration, and attracting top AI talent.

2. Closing the digital talent gap: The US, China, and India have a considerable advantage due to their readily available pool of digital talent. Despite efforts by MDEC and TalentCorp, Malaysia faces a talent shortage, especially in data science and AI. This gap is widening. A two-pronged approach is necessary: In the short term, facilitating the import of international experts to address immediate needs. Simultaneously, a long-term strategy is crucial, building a robust talent pipeline through deep industry-academia collaboration, investing in education and training to equip Malaysians with advanced AI expertise.

3. Democratising compute power: Malaysia should establish an affordable common compute facility, equipped with substantial GPU capacity, to support the development of a secure, indigenous AI model. This shared resource lowers the barrier to entry for students, researchers, and startups. The ultimate goal is to provide cloud-based AI services to a broad range of users, including academia, micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), startups, research institutions, government agencies, and other approved entities, fostering widespread AI adoption.

4. Leading in AI safety: As Asean chair in 2025, Malaysia can lead the region in responsible AI development by establishing an Asean AI Safety Institute. Operating on a hub-and-spoke model, the institute would collaborate with regional research institutions, academia, and the private sector. This collaborative approach ensures safe and ethical AI development, solidifying Malaysia's vision as a hub for digital innovation and ethical AI in Asean.

The stakes: Who will write the ultimate code?

The AI race is a battle for influence and power. AI has the potential to reshape economies, military strategies, and even global narratives. Unlike the nuclear arms race, there's no clear end. The crucial question is not simply who wins, but how this competition will shape our future. Will it inspire unprecedented innovation and collaboration, or will it deepen existing divides? The AI race is happening now, and its outcome will define the 21st century.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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ING

Economic

A respectable outcome for January job creation with fewer than feared downward revisions to historical data have cemented expectations that the Fed will not be cutting rates imminently. There are still lingering concerns about the quality of jobs being added, but an improving trend in jobs creation since late summer means the Fed will hold rates until 3Q.

Downward revisions, but with stronger near-term momentum

There is a lot to unpack in today’s US jobs report. January non-farm payrolls came in at 143k, below the 175k consensus, but there were 100k of upward revisions to the past two months and the unemployment rate came in at 4% versus 4.1% previously and expected. Average hourly earning rose 0.5% month-on-month, but the average working week dropped to 34.1 hours – matching the lows of the pandemic period. That in itself looks a pretty solid report and would justify the Federal Reserve holding rates steady for now.

We also get a whole load of revisions – the payrolls series is being adjusted for updates to the births-deaths model and changes to seasonal adjustment factors, while the unemployment rate is adjusted to take account of new population estimates, although changes were small.

With regards to the non-farm payrolls, the benchmark revisions were not as severe as initially proposed. The provisional estimate from August was for 818k of downward revisions over the 12 months to March 2024, but this is now reported as 598,000. Revisions to subsequent data mean that for 2024 as a whole the average monthly payrolls gain is now 166,000 versus 186,000 previously reported. More significantly October, November and December jobs have been revised higher, so we have a stronger trend at the end of 2024 than previously thought. As such it doesn't support the case for any near-term Fed easing.

Monthly change in non-farm payrolls (000s)

This chart above the revisions. The blue bays were the original monthly change in non-farm payrolls and the grey bars are the new published series. The orange line is the new 3M moving average and you can clearly see the improvement over the latter part of 2024.

Job quality remains an issue

Once again we come to the issue of the quality of the jobs being added. Originally we had 78% of all jobs created in the US since December 2022 were in the three sectors of government, leisure & hospitality and private education & healthcare services. The revisions show it is now 88%! We believe those three sectors tend to be lower paid, less secure and more part-time. This also helps to explain the drop in the average working week to just 34.1 hours. Note that previously 5.2mn jobs had been added between December 2022 and December 2024. Now it is 4.7mn between December 2022 and January 2023.

Contribution to cumulative jobs gains since December 2022 (000s)

Solid jobs market and sticky inflation to keep the Fed on hold until the third quarter

Looking at the overall picture we see the downward revisions were not as deep as thought while the trend over recent months has been stronger non-farm payrolls growth than expected. With the unemployment rate at just 4% and with next week's core CPI MoM reading expected to come in at 0.3% MoM the Fed is very likely to be on hold for several more months – remember we need to be tracking at 0.17% MoM to deliver 2% year-on-year inflation.

We remain cautious on the composition of jobs. We’d be much happier if it was tech, construction, business services, transport & logistics, manufacturing – the traditional growth engines of the US economy – that were driving employment growth, but we can’t have everything. Nonetheless, we think the Fed will be on hold until the third quarter of the year.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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ING

Economic

German industry ended the year on a weak footing, dropping by 2.4% month-on-month in December, from +1.3% MoM in November. On the year, industrial production is down more than 3%. At the same time, exports grew by 2.9% MoM in December, while imports increased by slightly more than 2% MoM, widening the trade surplus.

While the catch-up in exports points to some frontloading ahead of looming tariffs, the renewed weakening of industrial production confirms the structural weakness.

Today's data point is yet another in a series of disappointing industrial figures over the past two years. The slump in German industry continues. German industrial production remains about 10% below its pre-pandemic levels some five years after the onset of Covid-19. Manufacturing capacity utilisation is at lows comparable only to those seen during the financial crisis and the initial lockdowns. This paints a rather unflattering picture of a nation known as an industrial powerhouse.

Looking ahead, besides some rather technical rebounds, a substantial recovery of German industry is not in sight, yet. Inventories have continued to increase, instead of turning, and have now been at elevated levels for more than a year. At the same time, order books have started to bottom out but even after yesterday’s strong December increase, they are not filled enough to kick-start a much-needed turn in the inventory cycle.

Add to this looming tariffs on the EU and the expected modern version of ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ policies by the new US administration, and the outlook for German industry remains anything but rosy. This is not just because of the potential impact on German exports, but more so the effect on German investments if companies were to move production to the US.

All in all, today's industrial data once again underlines that industry has been and will remain a drag on German growth.

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Top 7 Must-Read Books for Mastering Technical Analysis

1. "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John J. Murphy

2. "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques" by Steve Nison

3. "Charting and Technical Analysis" by Fred McAllen

4. "Technical Analysis Explained" by Martin J. Pring

5. "The Art and Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes

6. "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes" by Brian Shannon

7. "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Thomas N. Bulkowski

Why These Books Are Essential for Traders

Global Gold Reserves: Top Countries with the Biggest Holdings

Why Do Countries Hold Gold Reserves?

Top Countries with the Largest Gold Reserves

1. United States

2. Germany

3. Italy

4. France

5. Russia

6. China

7. Switzerland

The Role of Gold in the Global Economy

Trends in Gold Reserves

Conclusion

Fundamental vs. Technical Analysis: Key Differences Explained

What is Fundamental Analysis?

What is Technical Analysis?

Key Differences Between Fundamental and Technical Analysis

How to Use Both Methods Effectively

Conclusion

The Arakan Army battles for legitimacy

Source：Eastasiaforum

The Global Ai Race: The New Cold War

The US: Leading the charge in AI supremacy

China: A formidable challenger

India: An emerging AI powerhouse

Malaysia: The rising star of Asean

Malaysia's AI ascent: Securing a spot in the big leagues

The stakes: Who will write the ultimate code?

Source: Theedgemarkets

US Jobs Report Better Than Feared

Downward revisions, but with stronger near-term momentum

Monthly change in non-farm payrolls (000s)

Job quality remains an issue

Contribution to cumulative jobs gains since December 2022 (000s)

Solid jobs market and sticky inflation to keep the Fed on hold until the third quarter

German Industrial Production Disappoints in December, While Exports Show Some Front Loading

Risk Disclosure