Three Vessels Bound for US Gulf Coast Terminals to Load Soybeans, Sorghum for China

Commodity

China–U.S. Trade War

Summary:

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday that the Trump Administration expects to sign a deal within two weeks.

Two cargo vessels were headed for grain port terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with the first U.S. soybean shipments to China since May, according ‌to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters.

A third vessel was en route to a Texas Gulf Coast grain ‌terminal to be loaded with China-bound U.S. sorghum in the coming days in what will be the first American shipment of the feed grain to China since mid-March, the shipping schedule showed.

U.S. farmers and grain traders have been ⁠awaiting shipments to China to ‌resume after Beijing shunned U.S. crops for months due to a trade war with Washington, costing U.S. farmers ‍billions on lost trade.

China has booked nearly 2 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans and a smaller volume of wheat since a meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea in late October, when the White House said Beijing agreed to ‌buy 12 million tons of soybeans by the end of the year. China has not confirmed the deal and questions about the agreement or when any sales would ship have fueled uncertainty in grain markets.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Monday that the Trump Administration expects to sign a deal within two weeks.

The vessel Ocean Harvest ⁠is due to arrive at Cargill's Reserve, Louisiana, terminal and the vessel Tokugawa is scheduled to arrive at a Convent, Louisiana, terminal owned by Zen-Noh Grain this week, both to be loaded with U.‍S. soybeans, ⁠the shipping schedule showed. A third vessel, Bungo Queen, is due to arrive for loading with U.S. sorghum at the Archer-Daniels-⁠Midland terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas, in the next week.

Cargill, ADM and Zen-Noh ‌did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Political

The Pentagon on Monday threatened to recall U.S. Senator Mark Kelly, a retired Navy captain, to active duty status in order to prosecute him after what it described as seditious behavior by the former astronaut and decorated veteran.

Kelly, who denies any wrongdoing and who said in a statement he would not be intimidated, joined five other Democrats in Congress with backgrounds in the U.S. military and intelligence community to urge U.S. troops to refuse any illegal orders.

Kelly's November 18 video message came amid heightened concerns among Democrats, echoed privately by some U.S. military officials, that the Trump administration is violating the law by ordering the U.S. military to kill suspected drug traffickers in strikes on their vessels in Latin American waters.

The Pentagon says those strikes are justified because the drug smugglers are considered terrorists.

The Pentagon statement said it was reviewing "serious allegations of misconduct" against Kelly. While it did not say what charges Kelly could face if it took such an extraordinary step, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted remarks on X accusing Kelly and the other lawmakers of sedition.

"The video made by the 'Seditious Six' was despicable, reckless, and false," Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on X.

"Encouraging our warriors to ignore the orders of their Commanders undermines every aspect of 'good order and discipline.'"

President Donald Trump has also accused Kelly and the other Democrats of sedition, saying in a social media post that the crime was punishable by death.

Under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, sedition and mutiny are among the most serious offenses and can be punishable by death.

VOWS NOT TO BE SILENCED

Kelly, in a statement, said he learned of the threat from Hegseth's social media post. He detailed his public service prior to joining the Senate representing Arizona, including 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm and four space shuttle flights at NASA.

"If this is meant to intimidate me and other members of Congress from doing our jobs and holding this administration accountable, it won’t work," Kelly said.

"I’ve given too much to this country to be silenced by bullies who care more about their own power than protecting the Constitution."

The threat to prosecute Kelly follows a purge at the Pentagon of senior members of the U.S. military, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the head of the Navy and the director of the National Security Agency.

The decision to recall and potentially prosecute Kelly could also be seen as a message to those recently dismissed officials, who have stayed silent following their removals.

LEGAL EXPERT SAYS KELLY HAS STRONG CASE

Rachel VanLandingham, a former Air Force lawyer now at Southwestern Law School, said she had never seen sitting lawmakers called back to the military involuntarily, and that Kelly would have a strong legal case to get a preliminary injunction since there was no evidence of probable cause.

"He has strong legal standing to say 'Absolutely not. I'm not going to do this'," VanLandingham said.

Hegseth's remarks also could undermine any Pentagon effort to prosecute Kelly since they amounted to a clear case of undue command influence and could be used as evidence that Kelly would not be able to get a fair trial, she said.

The prosecution of Kelly would raise questions about free speech rights and the separation of powers under the U.S. Constitution. It is also the latest example of Trump's administration seeking punishment of those Trump sees as political opponents.

Since returning to the presidency in January, Trump has occasionally called for imprisoning adversaries and his Justice Department has targeted critics such as former federal officials John Bolton and James Comey.

A federal judge dismissed criminal charges against Comey on Monday.

The Pentagon cautioned that all retired service members could be subject to recall.

"All servicemembers are reminded that they have a legal obligation under the UCMJ (Uniform Code of Military Justice) to obey lawful orders and that orders are presumed to be lawful. A servicemember's personal philosophy does not justify or excuse the disobedience of an otherwise lawful order," the Pentagon said.

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

China–U.S. Trade War

Political

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday held their first talks since agreeing to a tariff truce last month, discussing trade, Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Trump said the telephone call was “very good” and that the leaders spoke about purchases of soybeans and other farm products as well as curbing shipments of illegal fentanyl. The US president said he agreed to visit Beijing in April, and that he had invited Xi for a state visit next year.

“Our relationship with China is extremely strong!” Trump posted on social media. “There has been significant progress on both sides in keeping our agreements current and accurate. Now we can set our sights on the big picture.”

Xi told Trump that the return of Taiwan to China is a key part of the post-World War II international order, according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement. The Chinese leader also said the two countries should keep the positive momentum generated during their meeting last month in South Korea and expand cooperation, the statement said.

The leaders also spoke about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Xi expressed hope for the two sides to reach a binding peace agreement, the ministry said.

An ongoing row between Japan and China centered around Taiwan threatens to inject fresh tensions into the Trump-Xi relationship and complicate ties, after the world’s two largest economies reached their trade truce in October. Japan is a key US ally in Asia.

That deal saw Washington lower fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods and Beijing agree to remove certain restrictions on the export of rare earths. Any flare-up between the US and China could cause further uncertainty for markets and business leaders.

New Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said earlier this month that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could result in a military response from Tokyo. Beijing views the island as its own territory and has denounced Takaichi’s remarks, demanding a retraction.

Since then, China has issued a no-travel advisory for Japan, suspended the screening of some Japanese films and banned the import of Japanese seafood. Both countries have also stepped up military drills, with China announcing patrols in the East China Sea and Japan announcing plans to deploy missiles to an area near Taiwan.

Trump said in a Nov. 2 interview with CBS News’ that Xi “understands the answer to that” when asked if US forces would come to the defense of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. The US leader said the subject did not come up during their meeting last month.

Trade Terms

The US and China are still negotiating key details over how Beijing will free up sales of rare earths, according to people familiar with the matter. The two nations aim to agree on terms for “general licenses” that China pledged to offer for US-bound exports of rare earths and critical minerals by month’s end.

Despite ongoing talks over the materials, which are critical to the manufacture of high-tech electronics, remaining in limbo, the US already moved to roll back tariffs and national security measures. Shortfalls in rare-earth supplies have left global industries including autos, consumer goods and robotics at risk of disruptions.

The discussion also comes as the Trump administration is again weighing whether to allow the sale of more advanced artificial intelligence chips to Beijing. Trump had floated the possibility before his October meeting with Xi, but ultimately the two leaders did not discuss the issue. Some Trump advisers have warned that potential sales risk ceding the US’s advantage in the emerging technology.

The president is hearing from “lots of different advisers” in deciding whether to approve future exports, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Monday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“That kind of decision sits right on the desk of Donald Trump,” Lutnick said. “He will decide whether we go forward with that or not.”

Trump also said on Nov. 14 that the US was talking to the Chinese government about increasing purchases of American soybeans, another provision of the agreement.

“They’re in the process of doing it,” Trump said. “We spoke to them today. They’re in the process. We’re doing not only a little bit, but they’ll be doing a lot of soybean purchase.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Commodity

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Oil pushed higher as equities rose and traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that could deflate political risk from an already well-supplied market.

West Texas Intermediate was trading under $59, ticking up following its biggest weekly loss since early October.

While oil followed other risk assets higher, traders awaited further news after Ukraine and its European allies signaled that key sticking points remained in US-brokered peace talks to end Russia’s invasion, even as senior officials hailed progress in winning more favorable terms for Kyiv.

“Something good just may be happening,” President Donald Trump wrote in a Truth Social post about the talks. Oil Rises as Prospects for Ukraine Peace Deal Dominate Market_1

Oil Rises as Prospects for Ukraine Peace Deal Dominate Market_1

Refined products like diesel and gasoline — which have risen in recent weeks — were down on Monday. The difference between the price of gasoline or diesel and crude oil, known as crack spreads, continued to decline. Some trend-following commodity trading advisers were selling positions in the products though most stood their ground, according to data from Bridgeton Research Group.

Crude has slumped this year, with futures on course for a fourth monthly loss in November, in what would be the longest losing run since 2023. The decline has been driven by expanded global output, including from OPEC+, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record surplus for 2026. Traders are monitoring whether a deal on Ukraine will materialize, and if sanctions on Russia will be lifted — developments that could inject more supply.

“We should expect a nervous oil market ahead of Thanksgiving on Thursday,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management. “Several factors point to a peace agreement or possibly a ceasefire moving closer over the weekend, which supports further price declines this week.”

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Monday that talks had reached a “critical moment” as he indicated that discussions over territory and sovereignty would prove difficult.

Source: Bloomberg

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) failed to match the strength of Monday’s stock market rebound, extending a stretch of weak trading that’s left bullish sentiment in short supply. While equities pushed higher to start the week, the cryptocurrency stayed range-bound, struggling to shake off last week’s losses.

After regaining some ground over the weekend, the original cryptocurrency fell as much as 3.1% to dip below $86,000 on Monday, before paring the loss to trade little changed. Other smaller, more volatile tokens increased, with XRP jumping about 5% and Solana about 2.5% higher.

While Bitcoin’s price is higher than the Friday lows of $80,553, traders see little cause for celebration. The wider crypto market is in a pronounced slump despite surging institutional adoption and a series of policy wins pushed for by US President Donald Trump, who has embraced the industry.

“The lack of a broader ‘alt season’ in crypto and waning liquidity and underperformance relative to equity markets has made it more difficult to deploy meaningful capital into liquid strategies purely in crypto markets,” said Shiliang Tang, managing director of Monarq Asset Management. Bitcoin Weakness Persists as Crypto Steadies After Bruising Week_1

Bitcoin Weakness Persists as Crypto Steadies After Bruising Week_1

In the crypto options market, traders are building downside protection at lower levels even with Bitcoin prices having seen a slight rebound in the last 24 hours. Demand for put options at the strike of $80,000 has surpassed those at $85,000, becoming the most popular contracts, according to Coinbase-owned crypto exchange Deribit.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin funding rate - a key measure of crypto market sentiment - has turned negative in the last few days, according to CryptoQuant, meaning there is more demand for bearish bets in the perpetual futures market than bullish positions. That figure had been persistently positive even amid the market rout in recent weeks. The flip points to signs of deepening slump in digital assets as more traders bet against the largest cryptocurrency.

Without a turnaround, November will become Bitcoin’s worst month since a string of corporate collapses rocked the crypto market in 2022, a wipeout that culminated in the downfall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange.

Traders are watching $85,200 as a key support level after last week’s breakdown, said Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets.“Technicals and macro headwinds are dominating over fundamentals right now, but history shows these liquidation flurries often precede bounces if no new shocks hit,” she added.

Despite a weekend rebound, Bitcoin remains about 30% below its record high last month, and it’s unclear how long the recovery will hold without stronger tailwinds. Open interest in perpetual futures has yet to bounce back, lingering 36% below its October peak of $94 billion.

Investors have withdrawn more than $3.5 billion from a group of US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, vehicles that have emerged as a major driver of the token’s price since their debut. A sustained reversal of those outflows has yet to emerge.

“Unlike prior crashes driven primarily by retail speculation, this year’s downturn has unfolded amid substantial institutional participation, policy shifts, and broader macroeconomic headwinds,” Deutsche Bank AG analysts wrote in a note Monday.

A recovery may also be restrained by the pressure on investors who entered the market at higher levels. Realized losses among short-term holders — wallets that have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days — have climbed to $630 million per day, the highest since the June 2022 meltdown, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin Weakness Persists as Crypto Steadies After Bruising Week_2

Bitcoin Weakness Persists as Crypto Steadies After Bruising Week_2

“Such elevated loss realization highlights the heavier top structure built between $106,000–$118,000, far denser than previous cycle peaks,” analysts at Glassnode said in a research note. “Either stronger demand must emerge to absorb distressed sellers, or the market will require a longer, deeper accumulation phase before regaining equilibrium.”

Source: Bloomberg

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Justin

Political

President Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday morning, a White House official confirmed to CNBC.

Specifics about the call, including why it was scheduled or who requested it, were not immediately clear. The White House did not provide details about what was discussed.

But China's Foreign Ministry, in a statement, said, "Both sides are fully implementing the important consensus" they reached when the two leaders met in Busan, South Korea, late last month.

That consensus involved the United States agreeing to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, and China agreeing to pause new export controls on rare earth minerals, among other stipulations that lowered the temperature in their ongoing trade war.

"China-US relations have generally remained stable and improved" since the Busan meeting, Beijing said in the statement on Monday.

Trump and Xi also discussed Ukraine, which is currently in talks with the U.S. over a peace plan that the Trump administration wants Kyiv to agree to by Thanksgiving.

Xi "emphasized that China supports all efforts committed to peace," according to Beijing's readout of the call.

The Chinese leader also reiterated his country's view that Taiwan should "return to China."

Trump said that the U.S. "understands the importance of the Taiwan issue to China," the foreign ministry's statement said.

Trump also "stated that President Xi Jinping is a great leader," according to the ministry.

Source: CNBC

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Devin

Cryptocurrency

Their market value has climbed to new record highs, crossing 300 billion dollars and capturing around 8% of the entire crypto market. This rapid rise has brought excitement as well as concern.

Investors see stablecoins as useful tools for trading, payments and moving money quickly, but regulators worry that their fast growth and growing links to traditional finance could increase financial risks. As the market expands, the question becomes whether stablecoins can scale safely or whether their own weak spots could lead to trouble.

Why Stablecoins Matter More Than Ever

Stablecoins are tokens designed to keep a steady price, usually tied to a major currency like the US dollar. This simple idea has made them essential to the crypto world. Today, about 80% of trading on major crypto platforms involves stablecoins because traders use them to move in and out of positions without returning to a bank for money every time. Two names dominate this space.

Tether holds 184 billion dollars in value, and USD Coin holds 75 billion dollars. Together, they represent almost all stablecoin supply. A big trend pushing growth is new regulatory clarity. The European Union launched its MiCAR rulebook last year, giving issuers clear obligations, while the United States recently passed the GENIUS Act. Hong Kong has put rules in place as well. This wave of regulation has helped investors feel more comfortable, lifting demand around the world.

Source: DeFillama

While people often mention cross-border payments and inflation protection as stablecoin use cases, real data tells a different story. Only a small share of activity comes from everyday users. One study shows that less than 1% of stablecoin volume comes from retail-sized transfers. For now, stablecoins remain tools built mainly for traders rather than the general public.

Source: ecb.europa.eu

Where the Risks Begin to Surface

Rapid growth comes with challenges. A stablecoin must always be redeemable at the price it promises. If users lose trust, they may all rush to withdraw at once, leading to a run and breaking the coin's price. This has happened before in crypto and can shake markets quickly. The biggest risk comes from the fact that leading stablecoins hold huge piles of assets in traditional financial markets.

Tether and USDC together rank among the largest buyers of US Treasury bills. If either one faced a run, they might need to sell these assets quickly, which could hurt wider markets. Some analysts even project that stablecoins could reach two trillion dollars in size by 2028, which would increase the stakes.