Swelling supply to keep oil prices under strain in 2026

Commodity

Summary:

Oil prices are expected to stay weak in 2026 as a major global oversupply outweighs modest demand, though geopolitical risks may limit declines. Analysts see Brent near $62 and OPEC+ cautious on output.

Oil prices are projected to remain under pressure in 2026, as swelling supplies eclipse modest demand growth, while geopolitical risks could cap deeper losses, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

The survey of 35 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October's forecast of $63.15. The benchmark has averaged $68.80 per barrel so far in 2025, according to LSEG data.

U.S. crude is projected to average $59.00 per barrel, below last month's expectation of $60.23.

"The crude oil market in 2026 is expected to be marked by a large and unprecedented global oversupply," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

However, "ongoing political risks will maintain a crucial risk premium, essentially preventing the price from dropping as low as the high supply would otherwise suggest."

Analysts largely expect the oil market to see a surplus in 2026, with estimates ranging anywhere from 0.5–4.2 million barrels per day, compared with 0.19–3.0 mbpd in the previous poll.

Forecasts from the International Energy Agency imply a market surplus of 4.09 mbpd in 2026, while OPEC's recent monthly report implied a 20,000 bpd surplus if the wider group keeps pumping at October's rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.

OPEC+ has boosted output targets by around 2.9 million bpd since April, but plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026. Brent is expected to average $61.23 during that period, the poll showed.

Poll participants widely believe OPEC+ will avoid aggressive production hikes in 2026, given persistent oversupply concerns.

On the flip side, "we remain very sceptical about the group reversing the unwinding and cutting again. We expect it to consider doing so only if Brent remains below $55/barrel for a prolonged period," said Kim Fustier, head of European oil & gas research at HSBC.

Analysts expect U.S. shale output to decline in 2026, which coupled with geopolitical risks "should put a floor under prices of about $60/barrel," said Matthew Sherwood, lead commodities analyst at EIU.

U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, could lead to brief disruptions in supply but are unlikely to have a sustained impact on the market, analysts said, with Russian barrels expected to re‑enter markets via shadow fleets and intermediaries.

Peace talks could eventually bring more barrels back to market, adding to supply pressure, analysts noted.

Source: reuters

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group proudly describes itself as the place "where the world comes to manage risk." Except on Friday, the world was shut out.

Trading of futures and options was halted due to a fault at a data center, spilling over into multiple markets and affecting contracts covering trillions of dollars. It hit S&P 500 futures, along with EBS, a platform used in foreign exchanges, as well as everything from Treasuries and US crude oil to gasoline and palm oil.

In Singapore, one oil trader said when the initial alert was issued around 10:30 a.m. local time on Friday, they thought it was a hoax because the trades and quotes were still streaming in. But a few minutes later, the screen suddenly froze and they were booted out of the Nymex platform.

With the go-to service out, screens that would usually be a flickering wall of numbers ground to a halt, and traders had to seek out other options to keep trading and operating.

"It's pretty annoying. We wanted to price some equity index options," said Gerald Gan, deputy chief investment officer at Singapore-based Reed Capital Partners. "My provider is scouring for alternatives, but I doubt the liquidity would be as ample as CME."

Such reactions reflect how CME — which started in the late 1800s as the Chicago Butter and Egg Board — has grown to become an integral part of the global market machinery and a crucial part of traders' daily work. On average in October, trading in derivatives contracts was more 26 million every day, according to data from the group.

On Nov. 20, open interest in CME's US Treasury futures and options set an all-time high of 35.1 million contracts. About $1 trillion of notional value is traded daily in the E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures alone.

Exchange outages have occurred frequently in recent years, with technology issues affecting pricing across platforms globally.

In June 2024, a glitch during a software update in June 2024 led the New York Stock Exchange to erroneously halt trading on about 40 stocks and display odd trades showing a 99% drop in prices. Earlier in the year, tech issues disrupted premarket Nasdaq trading for almost three hours.

In Europe, London Stock Exchange Group Plc suffered three outages in a few months at the end of 2023, including one that halted trading for thousands of shares.

The latest CME malfunction is already longer than a similar, hours-long outage due to a technical error in 2019, which will mean questions for the company, the data center operator and the extent of contingency plans. The last alert on the CME website, with a timestamp of 5 a.m. Central Time, doesn't offer an estimate for when operations will restart.

Commodity traders scrambled to work out what would happen when the US benchmarks for gasoline and diesel futures expired later in the day — both of those periods can involve delivering actual barrels when the market closes at the end of month. Some oil brokers questioned why they came to work, with volumes already expected to be low the day after Thanksgiving and unable to trade CME volumes.

On LinkedIn, one employee at Glencore commented "Real Black Friday" in response to a post on the issues.

The outage meant limited trading in Treasury futures. Elsewhere, cash bonds traded sporadically and volumes may be hit by the reduced ability of traders to hedge. There are alternative methods to hedge trades, such as through swap markets which became more active following the start of trading in London, according to traders.

Futures for European and UK bond markets trade on a different exchange and were unaffected.

In the foreign exchange market, one trader said prices on platforms were returning to normal, but when trading opened at 8 a.m. in London, some platforms initially showed elevated bid-offer spreads.

"We typically use derivatives for tactical trades but it's obviously impossible this morning," said Amelie Derambure, a portfolio manager at Amundi SA. "Thankfully, it's a quiet day. It would have been quite a handicap had it been a busy day."

Friday was set to be a subdued day for stock markets, with only a half day of trading in the US after the Thanksgiving holiday. There's no US economic data scheduled and no Federal Reserve speakers ahead of a blackout period leading up to their December decision.

"Lucky it's quiet post Thanksgiving," said Emmanuel Valavanis, a London-based equity sales specialist at Forte Securities. "For this to happen on the last trading day of the month is bad enough, but coinciding with last day of year-end for many mutual funds compounds the potential issue. Freezing a trillion dollars is not a good look for those involved."

Some said they were staying away given the risks posed by the outage on a day when trading was already expected to be thinner.

"I am wary about trading on such an illiquid day, so I would not have wanted to trigger trades anyway," said Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at Gama Asset Management in Geneva. "And with this outage, all the more so."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Adam

Economic

MARKET WRAPS

European shares fell after opening higher on Friday, with all eyes turning to a data-center problem which halted trading at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

Futures trading in U.S. bonds and equities, as well as commodities and other asset classes were impacted by the disruption.

"Trading could be more volatile than usual today , as U.S. markets open for a half day and liquidity is likely to be thin," XTB said. "Added to this, a disruption on the CME trading exchange, could also affect trading across FX, stocks, commodities and some bonds."

There could be a sharp rush to unwind or roll positions once trading resumes, Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva said.

"The timing is particularly unnerving for traders -we're at month-end, and a few contracts are facing their final trading day today, " she added.

Investors were also paying close attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and monitoring the development of the next Fed chairman selection. Market sentiment has been buoyed after Kevin Hassett, a close Trump ally, has reportedly become the frontrunner.

According to the FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in a nearly 85% chance of a December cut after dovish comments from policymakers earlier this week.

Markets Insight

Next year is expected to be a good investment year for many equities and corporate bonds amid modest economic expansion, stronger earnings growth and nonrestrictive monetary policy, DWS said.

While AI could continue to be a market driver , high valuations of many AI leaders carry disappointment risk, it added.

Economic Insight

French inflation held steady in November as a pickup in growth was confirmed for the third quarter, keeping the European Central Bank on course to keep rates unchanged.

Data published Friday also confirmed that the French economy accelerated in the third quarter.

Shares on the Move

Most European beverage stocks were trading at lower valuations than their averages over the past five, ten and 15 years after another challenging year of share-price performances, but this seems justified, Deutsche Bank said.

" The sector is cheap for a reason . Earnings growth has been weak for an extended period and structural concerns are building. Disappointing delivery in 2025 only added to these concerns," it said.

U.S. Markets:

Moves were limited on Friday as trading of futures and options on the CME due to a glitch.

The New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq exchange are due to close at 1 p.m. ET, following Thursday's Thanksgiving Day closure.

Forex:

The dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies as trade remains thin due to Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

It remained weak, staying at the lower end of its recent range and close to a nine-day low hit on Thursday due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

Bonds:

Bunds remained trapped in a tiny range just below 2.7% in the 10-year maturity and were unlikely to break out of their tight trading range during Black Friday, Commerzbank Research said.

Bund-swap spreads were expected to resume cheapening next year after a directionless 2025, HSBC said.

"If the Finanzagentur [German Finance Agency] were to meaningfully reduce its weighted average maturity of issuance to reduce the term premium, that could mean a smaller increase in 10-year Bund supply," it added.

Bund yields should remain stable over the next 12 months, with potential curve steepening at ultra-long maturities due to financing needs and pension reform in the Netherlands, DWS said.

Franklin Templeton continued to expect medium- and long-dated Treasury yields to rise over the medium term.

"The slope of the curve has been influenced by how the U.S. federal government has financed increased fiscal spending," it said.

DWS said the 10-year Treasury yields are likely to be between 3.75% and 4.25% next year.

Top-rated government bonds such as Treasurys or Bunds retain many safe-haven characteristics but their functioning during risk-off episodes has periodically deteriorated , said Neuberger.

"These instruments do still play a role in portfolio diversification, in particular for hedging growth shocks, but are less reliable against inflation spikes or political tail risks," it added.

Energy:

Brent crude rose as traders awaited OPEC+'s meeting on Sunday and developments on peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, while WTI futures were frozen due to a system outage at exchange operator CME.

Gas

European natural-gas prices rose, but were still on track for a weekly loss of more than 2% as investors closely monitored geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and storage withdrawals.

"Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and a broader risk-on move in markets are keeping crude oil prices fairly rangebound," ING said.

Metals:

An outage at exchange operator CME halted gold futures trading.

Gold was edging higher in early trading on expectations of a December rate cut by the Fed. Dovish comments from policymakers earlier this week have lifted expectations of Fed rate cuts, ANZ said.

Copper

Copper was higher amid expectations of tight supply.

The global copper market is projected to shift into a supply deficit of 150,000 tons in 2026, Nanhua Futures said, citing the latest data from International Copper Study Group.

Iron

Iron ore prices fell in early trade.

Concerns about China's property sector are likely weighing on prices , as the sector has been a key source of demand for iron ore despite strong growth in other industries over the years, ANZ said.

EMEA HEADLINES

French Inflation Unchanged, Likely Keeping ECB on Hold

French inflation held steady in November as a pickup in growth was confirmed for the third quarter, keeping the European Central Bank on course to keep rates unchanged.

Consumer prices were 0.8% higher than in the same month a year prior, in line with October, EU-harmonized figures published by statistics agency Insee showed Friday. A consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected an increase of 0.9%.

Nexperia Urges China Unit to Restore Supply Chain

Nexperia has urged its China unit to facilitate production and restore the flow of chips, warning that customers are facing imminent stoppages.

The Dutch chip maker said in an open letter on Thursday that it hasn't received any meaningful response from its Chinese unit despite multiple attempts to re-establish dialogue. It urged the Chinese entities to respond and take immediate steps to restore predictable and established supply flows without delay.

U.K. Home Sales Fall on Budget Uncertainty, Report Says

U.K. home sales fell over the four weeks ended Nov. 23 as buyers stayed away over fears of higher property taxes in the budget, according to a report by real-estate agency Zoopla.

The agency said Friday that home sales fell 4% across the U.K., with buyer demand down 12% year-on-year.

Deutsche Boerse in Talks to Buy Fund-Tech Platform Allfunds in $6 Billion Deal

Deutsche Boerse said it is in talks with European fund-technology company Allfunds on a possible acquisition valued at around $6 billion.

The German stock-exchange operator said Thursday that it had made a nonbinding proposal to acquire Allfunds for 8.80 euros a share. That would imply an equity value of 5.29 billion euros ($6.13 billion) for the company, based on data taken from FactSet.

GLOBAL NEWS

CME Data-Center Issue Hits Options, Futures Trading

Trading of futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was halted for hours on Friday, disrupting some of the world's most liquid futures markets for commodities like oil, U.S. stocks and Treasuries and other financial instruments.

The exchange cited a cooling issue at a data center vendor and said it was working to resolve the problem.

Inside the Shapeshifting AI Trade That Has the Stock Market Heading Higher Again

We're going to need a few more nails.

Just one week ago, the death of the artificial-intelligence trade was the talk of the markets. The debate really began in October, when Meta Platforms released better-than-expected earnings but also increased the amount of money it would spend on data centers and other AI projects, causing the stock to slump.

National Guard Soldier Dies a Day After D.C. Shooting

U.S. Army Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, one of the National Guard members targeted by a gunman in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, has died, according to President Trump.

"She's just passed away," Trump said during a Thanksgiving call for servicemembers. "She's no longer with us. She's looking down at us right now. She was savagely attacked, she's dead," Trump said, adding the other victim is fighting for his life.

Europe Fears It Can't Catch Up in Great Power Competition

BRUSSELS-In the accelerating contest between great powers, Europe is struggling to keep up.

The continent's leaders have long worried they will be left behind as the U.S., China and Russia vie for economic, technological and military dominance.

Trump Is Silent on Taiwan After Talking to Xi-and That Is Fine With Taipei

TAIPEI-For years, most U.S. presidents have declined to answer the question of whether America would defend Taiwan's democracy against a military takeover by Communist China. This "strategic ambiguity"-backed by aid for Taiwan's self-defense and a robust military presence in the Pacific-has been key to deterring Beijing.

But with China's military growing stronger and leader Xi Jinping on a mission to tell the world that Taiwan belongs to Beijing-a message he delivered to President Trump in a phone call Monday-the question has resurfaced: Is saying little saying enough?

Putin Says U.S. Plan for Ending Ukraine War a Starting Point, Needs Work

Source: morningstar

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ING

Forex

Economic

Net exports drive growth, inventories slow it down

Preliminary GDP data had indicated that the Italian economy was still in a phase of stagnation in the third quarter. The second estimate, released today by Istat, revises the figure slightly upward, showing quarterly growth of 0.1%. From the supply side, Istat confirms that value added increased in agriculture and services, while it contracted in industry.

As usual, the second GDP estimate includes details of demand components. The slight quarterly growth was mainly driven by net exports (+0.5% contribution), household consumption and gross fixed investments (+0.1% contribution each), which more than offset the negative contribution from inventory changes (-0.5%).

Investment push set to continue in the fourth quarter, while the role of inventories remains uncertain

The negative impact of inventories is stronger than we had expected, while investments in machinery and equipment and household consumption are more robust. The sharp drop in inventories in the third quarter increases uncertainty for the fourth quarter; in our view, the probability of a positive surprise is now higher, even without radical changes in consumption and investment trends.

On the consumption side, given the decline in consumer confidence in November, we expect only marginally positive dynamics in the fourth quarter. As for investments, we expect continued momentum from infrastructure projects linked to the recovery and resilience plan and investments in machinery and equipment, which should benefit from the spending of the last available funds under the Transition 5.0 plan.

A gradual exit from stagnation?

Overall, Italy's updated third-quarter data seems to indicate a gradual exit from stagnation. Business confidence data for the fourth quarter also suggests a timid improvement in industry, though risks remain due to the potential impact of US tariffs on Italian exports. For these signals to gain strength, we will likely need to wait until Germany's ambitious investment projects start to materialise.

Based on today's data, we slightly revise our forecast upward to 0.2% for GDP growth in the fourth quarter and 0.6% for average growth in 2025.

Source: ING

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Justin

Political

Economic

The ex-husband of Virginia Giuffre, who was one of sex offender Jeffrey Epstein's most prominent accusers and took her own life in April, may add his name to the list of those fighting over her estate, lawyers in an Australian court said on Friday.

Robert Giuffre, an Australian martial arts instructor who was married to Virginia from 2002 until shortly before her death at the age of 41, according to media reports, could join as a party seeking access to the estate, alongside the former couple's sons Noah and Christian, their lawyer Jon Patty told the Supreme Court of Western Australia.

Court filings show the two sons applied to manage the estate but were opposed by Virginia's former lawyer Karrie Louden and former carer Cheryl Myers.

Robert could also join as guardian to their young daughter, Patty said in a short case management hearing. Patty added that an independent party could be appointed to represent the daughter to prevent a conflict of interest. The court did not allow publication of the daughter's name because she is a child.

No representative for Robert was present in court and he could not immediately be reached.

Virginia Giuffre gained global attention with allegations that she was trafficked to Britain's former Prince Andrew as a teenager. That case was settled in 2022 with a substantial donation and undisclosed payment. Andrew was stripped of his titles in October after the release of Giuffre's posthumous memoir, which detailed new allegations against the 65-year-old who is now known as Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor.

Giuffre was involved in at least four lawsuits when she died, according to court filings. But she did not have a valid will so the court appointed an administrator to oversee her estate, effectively reopening the cases.

At the hearing, registrar Danielle Davies heard the list of people vying for access to Giuffre's estate might grow.

A $10 million defamation claim filed in 2021 by a person associated with Epstein is among the pending lawsuits. Epstein was jailed in 2008 for child sex offences and killed himself in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex abuse charges.

Australian court filings show there are also contests over Giuffre's memoir rights and inheritance claims.

Davies, the registrar, gave the parties until Monday to submit more documents outlining their claims, and said a date for the next case management hearing would be set next year.

Source: TradingView

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Michelle

Forex

Economic

Government reaches pension deal after long night of Chancellery talks

"We've cleared some major hurdles. I didn't leave here until 2:15 a.m., but it was worth it," Markus Söder, chairman of the conservative Bavarian CSU, said on Friday morning at the Chancellery.

Looking a little tired but satisfied, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU), who sat next to Söder at the press conference, echoed this sentiment.

"The coalition is capable of acting," said the chancellor.

There had been doubts about its ability to govern in recent days, mainly because a group of young lawmakers in the conservative government faction wanted to block a planned pension bill they said would prove too costly to younger generations.

On this tricky issue, the coalition of Merz's CDU, Söder's CSU and the Social Democrats said on Friday it would not change the pension bill, but to commit to comprehensive pension reform after 2032.

Whether that will be enough for the young conservatives will be seen next week — that is when the pension bill is to be brought before the Bundestag.

The coalition has only a majority of 12 votes, and at least 18 conservative members of parliament voiced strong opposition to the bill. So it could be a close vote.

Merz, for his part, said he was "counting on approval."

11/28/2025

Berlin set to pass 2026 budget

Parliamentarians in Berlin on Friday are expected to pass Germany's 2026 budget after months of wrangling. This year's budget diverges from those of the past by depending heavily on borrowing to finance big-ticket programs after decades of balanced budgets and calls to stick to the so-called "black zero" policy of incurring no new debt.

Approved by the country's Budget Committee, the plan allocates a total of €524 billion ($607.7 billion), €97.9 billion of which will be borrowed. Some €58.3 billion will also be poured into new infrastructure investments through a special budgetary measure that passed in March and is exempted from prior rules clamping down on debt spending.

Germany's so-called "debt brake" — from which special funds are excluded — limits new borrowing to 0.35% of GDP.

Germany has increased investment 10% year-on-year over 2025, pumping it up to €126.7 billion for 2026.

Total new debt resulting from the budget and special funds will be around €180 billion, an amount surpassed only at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Berlin's budget deficit will grow to 4% of GDP in 2027, with debt expected to climb to 68% — the lowest in the G7.

Source: DW

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Gerik

Economic

Taiwan’s Economic Surge Defies Geopolitical and Trade Headwinds

Amid escalating geopolitical threats from China and the enduring weight of U.S. trade tariffs, Taiwan has emerged as one of the world’s fastest-growing developed economies. The island recorded back-to-back quarterly GDP growth rates of 7.7% and 8.21%, with 2025 growth projected at 7.4% surpassing China. These figures are largely driven by explosive AI-related export growth, with October exports alone surging 49.7% year-on-year, and the nation’s stock market surpassing Germany’s to become the eighth largest globally.

The primary engine behind this performance is Taiwan’s high-tech sector, especially semiconductors. Companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s top contract chipmaker, are central to global AI infrastructure, supplying critical chips to tech giants like Nvidia and AMD. TSMC alone revised its annual revenue forecast to the mid-30% growth range, citing AI demand as the core driver. Taiwan’s outbound shipments to the U.S. where most AI data centers are being built jumped more than 63% in the first 10 months of 2025.

Economic Gains Concentrated in High-Tech Sector

Despite this extraordinary growth, a widening gap between economic headlines and lived experience has emerged. Electronics manufacturing, which contributes over 15% of Taiwan’s GDP, employs just 6.5% of its workforce. Meanwhile, real wage growth has stagnated since the early 2000s, and labor’s share of GDP has declined from roughly 50% in the 1990s to around 44% today.

Data from Capital Economics shows that wages in the electronics sector are now more than 70% higher than the average across all industries, up from 35% just five years ago. This disproportionate income distribution has left workers in healthcare, education, and traditional manufacturing struggling. For example, nurses and salaried workers in Kaohsiung report that salaries have barely moved, even as Taiwan’s GDP per capita exceeds $38,000 higher than both South Korea and Japan.

The root of this disparity lies in Taiwan’s export-led development model, where long-term wage suppression has been used to maintain international price competitiveness. As labor activist Roy Ngerng points out, the surge in tech profits hasn’t translated into meaningful gains for the broader labor force, widening inequality and straining social cohesion.

Structural Risks: Sectoral Dependence and External Exposure

Taiwan’s AI-linked boom is also fueling concerns about excessive dependence on a single sector. Chips and electronics now make up more than 73% of exports up from about 50% five years ago while traditional sectors like machinery and plastics have remained flat or declined.

This narrow export concentration leaves Taiwan vulnerable to sector-specific downturns. Economist Wang Jiann-Chyuan predicts a significant drop in export growth next year, from 30% to single-digit figures, as the AI expansion normalizes. Moreover, Taiwan’s record trade surplus with the U.S. could draw scrutiny from President Trump, who has already signaled the possibility of triple-digit semiconductor tariffs. While exemptions have so far protected companies like TSMC that invest in the U.S., the trade relationship remains precarious.

Social Disconnection and Housing Crisis Undermine Economic Optimism

Consumer sentiment remains subdued. Confidence indices show little change throughout 2025, suggesting that the GDP surge has failed to translate into household optimism. Part of the disconnect stems from the burdens of rising living costs particularly housing. Taipei’s house price-to-income ratio has tripled over the past 20 years, surpassing global cities like New York and Hong Kong, pushing younger workers and lower-income households to the financial edge.

For many citizens, the AI boom feels intangible. Healthcare professionals cite wage stagnation as a reason for burnout and emigration, while even high-skilled tech workers, like AI engineers, acknowledge the gap between national strength and personal wealth.

Navigating Political and Economic Fragility

Taiwan’s economic success is underpinned by a fragile geopolitical context. The island’s unresolved political status and China’s military threats contribute to a sense of collective anxiety, despite headline growth. Political economist Wu Jieh-min sees this societal alertness as constructive: a mindset of careful management rather than complacency.

Taiwan’s development path marked by decentralized industrial ecosystems and adaptive small-to-medium enterprises has historically been shaped by pragmatism more than planning. As Wu Tsong-Min of National Taiwan University notes, Taiwan’s purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP paints a slightly more favorable picture, but systemic issues like wage stagnation and housing unaffordability remain unresolved.

Taiwan’s rise as a global AI and semiconductor leader illustrates how concentrated innovation can supercharge a national economy. Yet the gap between headline GDP and individual financial well-being reveals a structural flaw: growth that is not inclusive. Without deeper reforms in wage distribution, cost of living, and sectoral diversification, Taiwan risks cultivating discontent even in the midst of economic triumph. The next phase of Taiwan’s success will depend not just on how much it exports, but how equitably it shares the gains of its technological dominance.