Russia Lifts Gasoline Export Ban for Producers to Stabilize Domestic Market

Record Gas Output Reshapes China’s Energy Balance

Shale Gas as the Core Structural Driver

Cost Competitiveness Weakens the Case for LNG

Sharp Decline in LNG Imports, Especially From the US

Russia Gains Ground as a Strategic Supplier

Demand Resilience Despite Economic Slowdown

Long-Term Outlook Anchors Energy Independence

Petronas Sets Clear Production Anchor for 2026–2028

Rising Drilling Activity Signals Structural Commitment

Key Projects Drive Near-Term Output Stability

Downstream and LNG Operations Support the Upstream Push

Medium- and Long-Term Shift Toward Portfolio Resilience

Market Consensus Points to Policy Continuity

Futures Curve Signals Tighter Near-Term Conditions

Oversupply Narrative Begins to Fade

Focus Turns to Compensation Cuts

OPEC+ Maintains Seasonal Discipline

Signals Supportive, But Not a Turning Point

Pope Leo XIV has voiced deep concern over escalating tensions between the United States and Cuba, calling for "sincere and effective dialogue" to prevent further hardship for the Cuban people.

The Pope’s comments on Sunday followed a recent move by U.S. President Donald Trump to intensify pressure on Cuba.

Pope Leo XIV, pictured leading Vespers in Rome on January 25, 2026, has called for a peaceful resolution to the US-Cuba dispute.

US Escalates Pressure with Tariff Threats

Last week, President Trump announced that the United States would impose tariffs on imports from any country supplying oil to Cuba. This policy shift came shortly after the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early January, a key ally who had provided Cuba with oil.

The Trump administration framed the tariff threat as a necessary measure to protect "U.S. national security and foreign policy from the Cuban regime's malign actions and policies."

Last week, Trump also predicted that "Cuba will be failing pretty soon," noting that Venezuela had not recently sent oil or money to the island nation.

Cuba and the Vatican Call for De-escalation

In his remarks after the weekly Angelus prayer, Pope Leo stated he had received reports of the growing friction "with great concern." He aligned his message with that of Cuban bishops, "urging those responsible to promote sincere and effective dialogue to avoid violence and further suffering for the Cuban people."

In response to the U.S. tariff warning, Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez declared an "international emergency." He described the American policy as "an unusual and extraordinary threat."

Despite the heightened rhetoric, President Trump reiterated on Saturday his call for Cuba to negotiate with the United States. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he said, "It doesn't have to be a humanitarian crisis."

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, has offered a sharp analysis of U.S. President Donald Trump, praising him as an effective and peace-seeking leader while simultaneously dismissing his claims about deploying nuclear submarines near Russia.

The comments come as a new round of peace talks involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine is scheduled for this week in Abu Dhabi. Trump has repeatedly stated that a deal to end the war in Ukraine is close and has positioned himself as a "peacemaker" president.

Figure 1: Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, outlines his views on U.S.-Russia relations and the Ukraine conflict.

A Method to Trump's 'Chaos'

In an interview with Reuters, TASS, and the WarGonzo Russian war blogger, Medvedev pushed back against the notion that Trump is merely a chaotic force in global politics. While acknowledging Trump’s "emotional" and sometimes "brash" style, Medvedev described it as "effective."

"The chaos that is commonly referred to, which is created by his activities, is not entirely true," said Medvedev, who served as Russia's president from 2008 to 2012. "It is obvious that behind this lies a completely conscious and competent line."

Medvedev, who has become known for his hawkish statements, lauded Trump's courage for resisting the U.S. establishment and suggested the key to understanding him lies in his business background.

Productive Diplomacy and Peace Efforts

According to Medvedev, Moscow respects the American people's decision to elect Trump, and relations have improved under his leadership.

"Trump wants to go down in history as a peacemaker—and he is really trying," Medvedev said. "And that is why contacts with Americans have become much more productive."

While President Vladimir Putin has the final say on Russian policy, Medvedev's comments offer insight into the thinking of hardline figures within the Moscow elite.

The Mystery of the Missing Submarines

Despite the praise, Medvedev openly questioned a specific military claim made by Trump. In August, Trump stated he had ordered two U.S. nuclear submarines to move closer to Russia following what he called "highly provocative" comments from Medvedev.

When asked about the threat, Medvedev’s response was blunt: "We still have not found them."

Outlook on the Ukraine Conflict

Regarding the ongoing war, Medvedev projected confidence, stating that a Russian military victory would come "soon." However, he stressed that the ultimate goal was not just to win but to secure a lasting peace.

"I would like this to happen as soon as possible," he said. "But it is equally important to think about what will happen next. After all, the goal of victory is to prevent new conflicts."

Currently, Russia controls about a fifth of Ukraine's territory. Ukrainian forces continue to hold approximately 10%, or 5,000 square kilometers, of the eastern Donbas region.

A US military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, sent shockwaves through the international community. Washington framed the action as a counter-narcotics measure, but it stood as a clear violation of international law. The move directly contradicted a principle often cited by the US and its allies: that changing the status quo by force is unacceptable.

This was followed by another assertive move when President Donald Trump announced retaliatory tariffs on Denmark and seven other European nations on January 17. The tariffs were a response to their opposition to his proposal to acquire Greenland.

These rapid and radical actions highlight a growing sense of urgency from Trump, whose approval ratings have been declining ahead of the November midterm elections. The President has stated that the only check on his power is his own morality, not international law.

The 'Donroeism' Doctrine Explained

This new foreign policy direction has been dubbed 'Donroeism'—a modern reinterpretation of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. Under this framework, the United States is shifting its strategic focus to the Western Hemisphere. The primary goals are to establish regional dominance and eliminate perceived threats, including drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and the influence of Russia and China in the Americas.

This pivot raises fundamental questions about the future of the post-World War II security architecture. The system of collective defense through NATO in Europe and bilateral alliances in East Asia now faces a potential transformation. President Trump's long-standing threat to withdraw the United States from NATO could become a reality.

A New Approach to US-China Relations

In East Asia, US policy toward China also appears to be evolving. Since China became the world's second-largest economy around 2010, Washington has treated Beijing as its primary global competitor, using its 'Indo-Pacific Strategy' to build alliances and contain Chinese influence.

However, recent events suggest a strategic adjustment. During the APEC summit in late October 2025, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year truce in the trade war and planned reciprocal state visits for 2026, while avoiding contentious discussions over Taiwan. Trump has also made references to a 'G2' framework, implying an elevated global status for China. This suggests that as Washington concentrates on the Western Hemisphere, it may be seeking to avoid direct confrontation with Beijing.

For China, a stable relationship with the US and a healthy economy are top priorities. With domestic consumption sluggish and real GDP growth at approximately 5% in 2025, avoiding another trade war is crucial. From this perspective, the trade truce and high-level diplomacy are positive outcomes for the Xi administration.

Reassessing the Risk of a Taiwan Conflict

Some analysts have speculated that the US military action in Venezuela could embolden China to take military action against Taiwan, a key political objective for Xi as he nears the end of his third term. This interpretation, however, is likely flawed. While the Venezuela operation was a violation of another country's sovereignty, Beijing considers Taiwan a purely internal affair.

China is expected to pursue reunification on its own timeline. Its strategy will likely involve:

• Applying political pressure through the Kuomintang and other allies in Taiwan.

• Conducting military exercises in the Taiwan Strait.

• Steadily expanding its military capabilities.

The decisive factor remains the US response. Under Donroeism, many observers now believe the likelihood of American military intervention in a Taiwan contingency is decreasing.

Japan's Strategic Dilemma

Japan finds itself in a situation similar to Europe, which is now pursuing greater strategic independence. Surrounded by nuclear-armed China and Russia, and a nuclear-capable North Korea, Japan cannot realistically abandon the US nuclear umbrella. The political and economic costs of developing its own nuclear deterrent are simply too high.

At the same time, unconditional alignment with Washington may not always serve Japan's national interests. Instead of simply following America's lead, Japan should aim to become an ally capable of influencing US policy. The key to achieving this lies in developing an autonomous diplomatic strategy focused on Asia.

Even without US participation, Japan should work to expand the CPTPP to include China and South Korea, create regional confidence-building frameworks, and strengthen ties with South Korea, Australia, ASEAN nations, and India.

Tensions Derail Japan-China Diplomacy

Constructive engagement with China is essential for regional stability, but relations between Tokyo and Beijing are tense. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, despite her conservative reputation, initially took a conciliatory stance, securing a meeting with Xi at the APEC summit.

However, immediately after the summit, Takaichi posted on social media about her meeting with Taiwan's APEC representative. She later told the Diet that a conflict over Taiwan could constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, implying Tokyo might invoke collective self-defense to support the US.

Beijing viewed these actions as a diplomatic insult to President Xi and responded with retaliatory measures. China discouraged travel to Japan, suspended seafood imports, and placed export controls on dual-use items and rare earths. Takaichi has refused to retract her statements, and with Taiwan being Beijing's "core interest of core interests," the outlook for improving Japan-China relations is bleak.

Navigating an Unstable World

President Trump's 'Donroeism' is reshaping the foundations of the global order, from the Western Hemisphere to Europe and East Asia. For Japan, relying solely on its alliance with the United States is no longer sufficient. To navigate this increasingly unstable environment, Japan must pursue a more independent, Asia-centered foreign policy.